Monday 29 November 2010
Monday Lays
Well at least we do have a meeting on today....
Just a few cautious lays...
Folks 12.25 Perfect Reward
12.55 American Trilogy N/R
2.00 Handtheprizeover
That is it.... TGLL ( ALL ABANDONED)
The Naps Table
As Bob knows, the monthly Naps table is just a bit of fun - sure, I'm in front, but I'm not losing sleep over it ! lol
The racing today is rubbish and I doubt that I'll be napping anything, although Invictus looks a good Nap (1.25 Folk)
The racing today is rubbish and I doubt that I'll be napping anything, although Invictus looks a good Nap (1.25 Folk)
the vfb naps table monday 29th bobt
Good morning all
the naps table is in its closing stages for November and its fun bets for the guy at the back of the field (yours truly) I can pick with immunity whilst the top three don't know whether to stick or bust - don't worry lads
Standings November 2010 Tipster Wins Runs Strike LSP POE Martyn 8 20 40% +7.90 +39% JohnC 6 26 23% +3.22 +12% JohnB 5 11 45% +0.61 +5% Deleting the rest of the names down to ----roberttaylor03 0 21 0% -21.00 -100%
Will be looking for the long priced beasties but I just know you will be watching and clutching the lucky rabbits foot hoping that they will have only the price quoted chances ------ so I have to get something that is at least 33/1 to win as i cannot rely on racing tomorrow!
So Now that Folkstone has the green light and g/soft ground
here is the short list -----12.20 Bold Pioneer 159/1 betfair only 1 piece of work that makes it some sort of attraction at cartmel over 2miles chase on good ground nice lil claimer who can ride well
1.25 Folkstone Current Climate - ran a decent bumper on good ground at plumpton well beaten on its soft ground hdles debute - Moore keeps the ride 69/1 current price - Venetian Lad if there is some money now back on good ground could attract me at 54/1 with Bradburne in the plate
3.10 Folkstone Canni Thinkaar upped to 3m on g/soft looks good to me on its run against a better field last time over an inadequate 2m5f --- 37/1 currently betfair
and there is a race at Wolves that attracts me too 2.10 - Corlough Mountain 1m5f well handicapped and likes the track at a current 54/1 betfair
Bobt
the naps table is in its closing stages for November and its fun bets for the guy at the back of the field (yours truly) I can pick with immunity whilst the top three don't know whether to stick or bust - don't worry lads
| Standings November 2010 | |||||
| Tipster | Wins | Runs | Strike | LSP | POE |
| Martyn | 8 | 20 | 40% | +7.90 | +39% |
| JohnC | 6 | 26 | 23% | +3.22 | +12% |
| JohnB | 5 | 11 | 45% | +0.61 | +5% |
Standings November 2010 Tipster Wins Runs Strike LSP POE Martyn 8 20 40% +7.90 +39% JohnC 6 26 23% +3.22 +12% JohnB 5 11 45% +0.61 +5% Deleting the rest of the names down to ----roberttaylor03 0 21 0% -21.00 -100%
Will be looking for the long priced beasties but I just know you will be watching and clutching the lucky rabbits foot hoping that they will have only the price quoted chances ------ so I have to get something that is at least 33/1 to win as i cannot rely on racing tomorrow!
So Now that Folkstone has the green light and g/soft ground
here is the short list -----12.20 Bold Pioneer 159/1 betfair only 1 piece of work that makes it some sort of attraction at cartmel over 2miles chase on good ground nice lil claimer who can ride well
1.25 Folkstone Current Climate - ran a decent bumper on good ground at plumpton well beaten on its soft ground hdles debute - Moore keeps the ride 69/1 current price - Venetian Lad if there is some money now back on good ground could attract me at 54/1 with Bradburne in the plate
3.10 Folkstone Canni Thinkaar upped to 3m on g/soft looks good to me on its run against a better field last time over an inadequate 2m5f --- 37/1 currently betfair
and there is a race at Wolves that attracts me too 2.10 - Corlough Mountain 1m5f well handicapped and likes the track at a current 54/1 betfair
Bobt
Sunday 28 November 2010
End of month Accounting Woe Bobt
OOouch was down 140 points on the month my worstest trading figure for 3 years - someone on the blog said was hitting the bar (apparently a football term rather than my old problem of hitting the bar floor).
I have lost the touch am doomed don't have a chance give it up ---poor old soul has lost it etc etc.
have looked at the Naps table for comfort --- ohhhhhhhhhhhhh noooooooooooo am bottom and to make it even worse the Martin is at the top with only 2 (frost days) to go - even Folkstone will have to look again tomorrow.
I blame it all on
I have lost the touch am doomed don't have a chance give it up ---poor old soul has lost it etc etc.
have looked at the Naps table for comfort --- ohhhhhhhhhhhhh noooooooooooo am bottom and to make it even worse the Martin is at the top with only 2 (frost days) to go - even Folkstone will have to look again tomorrow.
I blame it all on
- writing this blog -
- having my knee caps replaced.
- losing my black flat hat.
- Strictly Come Dancing. (If that bloody Anne does not go tonight I will eat another hat.)
Is there a light at the end of the tunnel that will not make my animals fall? Not make it get beaten in a photo ? where have I gone wrong - easy really- haven't been backing winners - Had two nice ones yesterday but that's another story. Should have kept my mind on racing.
Lesson learned -
- Don't put a lot of money in running on a horse cruising to the second last (it will always get brought down by tiring leaders)
- November horses that have run well fresh in the past will only run fresh again if I have discounted them as too old!
- Don't put up horses on Radio Timeform Facebook wall
- Trends- Don't think you have found one to beat the statistics.
- When the Vfb says it has all the blues back it regardless of the price (if its not odds on)
So having bared my soul - onwards and upwards for December - The brilliant card for Fairyhouse abandoned today is to be re scheduled for Thursday
Hope you, my happy reader have fared better this month - please form a queue to let me know
Bob
The Hennessey Review Sunday Bob t
What an astonishing (to me) run from Denman in a race where the ground would not have suited a fast race the Hennessey came up with the goods again.
See that the time was only 0.7 sec outside the course record and that is little short of amazing. Yes the writing was on the wall in the straight with Diamond Harry only making one error two from home was all over the winner and asserted well. But Denman and to his credit Sam Thomas put up an effort out of left field.
When I bet I bet with my head and not my heart and yet would have been happy this morning to be congratulating Denman fanatics if he had got home in front yes I layed it but only on the record of the horse - When he nosed to the front for a while at the cross fence and jumped that hoodoo well only age and weight was going to beat him. He ran his heart out. His winning would have been the result NH jumping needs but he's been to the well too often in high class events and is my lay animal. There will be many who see that run as convincing for the rest of the season with an unshakeable conviction - I will not be in their number.
Stats said a 7 yr old but not one that had pulled up last time! - when the money came for Diamond Harry (as per usual a steady run of money late) I put a small win amount on - his record of 4 wins around here from 5 starts and the Williams /Jacobs making it an analyser animal.
Of the rest - well Hey big Spender just went off like the terrier he is. He carted Colman into a lead and a pace that was going to be suicidal - he jumped like a cat till the back straight where he took off way to early (look at the race again you will see it front legs straight out and a sign of massive confidence only to catch the top of the birch - he then reverted to legs curled up instantly at the next fence- but the damage was done. He would have appreciated softer ground but am not convinced he was handled kindly after that mistake. I would have liked him pulled up as he lost ground. The race will take some getting over for him. Colman should have been strong enough to curb his enthusiasm and as soon as he went off like that put a lay in.
It was not pretty to see My main Bet Madison fall early - it was a real Newbury mistake as he tried to Match strides with the front runners - uncharacteristic of him as had fallen only twice before (at Aintree) out of 31 runs and maybe age has caught up with him a bit because it was a knuckle under on landing rather than a fence error.
I did Not back Silver By Nature in the end as he looked mulish and nervy in the parade and the ground was just not right - he missed the First completely and got impeded badly by the fallers but was treated kindly after and given a run that will still make him very attractive for the Welsh Grand National if the ground comes up its usual bottomless conditions.
Well Done to the Tony (anonymous) commentator for selecting Diamond Harry and hard luck you did not get the forecast with Denman - hope you will join us on the blog
Bobt
See that the time was only 0.7 sec outside the course record and that is little short of amazing. Yes the writing was on the wall in the straight with Diamond Harry only making one error two from home was all over the winner and asserted well. But Denman and to his credit Sam Thomas put up an effort out of left field.
When I bet I bet with my head and not my heart and yet would have been happy this morning to be congratulating Denman fanatics if he had got home in front yes I layed it but only on the record of the horse - When he nosed to the front for a while at the cross fence and jumped that hoodoo well only age and weight was going to beat him. He ran his heart out. His winning would have been the result NH jumping needs but he's been to the well too often in high class events and is my lay animal. There will be many who see that run as convincing for the rest of the season with an unshakeable conviction - I will not be in their number.
Stats said a 7 yr old but not one that had pulled up last time! - when the money came for Diamond Harry (as per usual a steady run of money late) I put a small win amount on - his record of 4 wins around here from 5 starts and the Williams /Jacobs making it an analyser animal.
Of the rest - well Hey big Spender just went off like the terrier he is. He carted Colman into a lead and a pace that was going to be suicidal - he jumped like a cat till the back straight where he took off way to early (look at the race again you will see it front legs straight out and a sign of massive confidence only to catch the top of the birch - he then reverted to legs curled up instantly at the next fence- but the damage was done. He would have appreciated softer ground but am not convinced he was handled kindly after that mistake. I would have liked him pulled up as he lost ground. The race will take some getting over for him. Colman should have been strong enough to curb his enthusiasm and as soon as he went off like that put a lay in.
It was not pretty to see My main Bet Madison fall early - it was a real Newbury mistake as he tried to Match strides with the front runners - uncharacteristic of him as had fallen only twice before (at Aintree) out of 31 runs and maybe age has caught up with him a bit because it was a knuckle under on landing rather than a fence error.
I did Not back Silver By Nature in the end as he looked mulish and nervy in the parade and the ground was just not right - he missed the First completely and got impeded badly by the fallers but was treated kindly after and given a run that will still make him very attractive for the Welsh Grand National if the ground comes up its usual bottomless conditions.
Well Done to the Tony (anonymous) commentator for selecting Diamond Harry and hard luck you did not get the forecast with Denman - hope you will join us on the blog
Bobt
Saturday 27 November 2010
Saturday Lay
A very quiet day here.
Only one lay.
Newb 1.30 Stoney's Treasure to Lay...
That is it.... TGLL
The Hennessy TODAYS the DAY bob t
Seems that Denman is now going to be a price more realistic to his chances - drifting to 11/2 and despite all the talk is now at a proper price - have banged on long enough about what I think and leave it to his fervent supporters to get it home off this career braking top mark of 182 --
This is a cracking renewal and I will not be able to get there for the first time in many many years and that is simply old age catching up.
I love this race for its forecast and tricast possibilities - ability to jump second season chasers who have jumped these fences before and won or came second in their last race and can go on the ground
Holding the top spot in my affections is Madison Du Berlais was sent over hdles last time to good effect won the Hennessy jumping for fun and is a hardened handicapper - won of 150 (daH of 154) and has to improve 3lbs to the rest who have to improve loads more (Denman for example has to improve 7lbs on his win here) Madison is in the handicap proper at only 10-01 - trounced Denman who was giving him 4lbs on soft ground at Kempton is running at his peak DSR of 28 days.
Others that hold really good credentials are in order of preference - Hey Big Spender who won this card last year on g/soft ground - at 7 is a good animal that takes a few chances but a second season horse who Joe Tizzard Cannot ride today unfortunately is what I feel has a great chance in next years national - ground is no worry fences are! He is a stayer and in a fast-run race like the Hennessy he might drop the bit and relax for a while. he stays - he is bred to stay.
Big Fella Thanks has jumped round here and came a close second to Hey Big last time and is a decent jumper round here - Ferdy Yard not in the greatest form - money will be significant
Sliver by Nature - if only the ground cuts up this would be a sensational runner goes well fresh jumps like a dream has place chances - looked big and fit in a recent video from the yard make him 5th in on class (they are playing 5 places at Ladbrokes)
if this race does not set your pulse racing nothing will!
Friday 26 November 2010
Lays Friday
As they come today...rather behind... Bit of a strange days methinks today...posting just before off.
12.30 Dolatulo to Lay Lost
1.00 Laying Coup Royale Lost
3.15 BTL Ohio gold (all matched).
TGLL
Friday
An up and down day for me yesterday - my bac bets lost but all my lays were beaten. Here are my thoughts for today - machine-gun style as I have a bit on today.
Back Bets
2.35 Ling Wallis WON 4/1
3.05 Ling Eolith (Place)
4.30 Wolv Magic Cross
3.05 Ling Eolith (Place)
4.30 Wolv Magic Cross
Lays (ALL lost except for the withdrawn horse)
12.10 Muss Auberge (Max 6.0) (Nap)
2.00 Ling Seeking Glory
2.25 Muss Switched Off
2.35 Ling Anne of Kiev
2.45 Newb Matuhi
Possibly some lays at Wolverhampton later .....
2.00 Ling Seeking Glory
2.25 Muss Switched Off
2.35 Ling Anne of Kiev
2.45 Newb Matuhi
Possibly some lays at Wolverhampton later .....
still looks good for the hennessy
A field of 18 are set to go to post for Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup after the will he-won't he saga over China Rock's participation in the race was settled when trainer Mouse Morris finally ruled him out. The seven-year-old had been expected to be taken out at the final declaration stage, however his name appeared among the declarations before Morris decided not to run after seeking vets advice.
purely on statistics Red negative Blue positive and Purple Place chances
Highlited animals have provisional best stats for place ground dependant etc.
purely on statistics Red negative Blue positive and Purple Place chances
Highlited animals have provisional best stats for place ground dependant etc.
1U24- | 10 | 11-12 | ||||||||
31F14/ | 9 | 10-8 | ||||||||
14P/1- | 9 | 10-4 | ||||||||
244F-2 | 9 | 10-1 | ||||||||
5121- | 8 | 10-0 | ||||||||
437P-7 | 8 | 10-0 | ||||||||
1242-6 | 7 | 10-0 | ||||||||
2205-2 | 9 | 10-0 | ||||||||
1311P- | 7 | 10-0 | ||||||||
111-1 | 7 | 10-0 | ||||||||
11121- | 6 | 10-0 | ||||||||
21PP- | 9 | 10-0 | ||||||||
2U14-2 | 8 | 10-0 | ||||||||
21UF-1 | 7 | 10-0 | ||||||||
529P-F | 9 | 10-0 | ||||||||
1/111- | 7 | 10-0 | ||||||||
71P4-0 | 8 | 10-0 | ||||||||
11-045 | 8 | 10-0 |
Long Handicap: Carruthers 9-13, The Tother One 9-12, Diamond Harry 9-10,
Weird Al 9-10, Burton Port 9-10, Dream Alliance9-9, Big Fella Thanks 9-9,
Hey Big Spender 9-8, Niche Market 9-6, Pandorama 9-6, Razor Royale 9-4,
Hills Of Aran 9-3
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