Racing Post Hurdle

Its an interesting race for sure, here's some of the stronger stats.

ONLY 2 FOUR YEAR OLDS have won since 1988 (DETROIT CITY (2006) & BRAMPOUR (2011)). So it looks like you have to be an exceptional youngster to take this.
ALL of the last 20 winners had won over 2 miles in the past.
18 of the last 20 winners were OFFICIALLY RATED 129 +
14 of the last 17 winners had won one or more of their last THREE STARTS.

So applying those stats your left with a shortlist of Moon Dice, Rattan, Cash And Go, Domination, Constant Contact, Dark Lover & Hunters Belt.

Lets see who off this shortlist goes on the ground

[B]Rattan[/B]
[B]Cash And Go[/B]
[B]Domination[/B]
[B]Dark Lover[/B]
[B]Hunters Belt[/B]

Now lets look at the shortlist and see who like's running round an undulating track.

[B]Cash And Go[/B]
[B]Domination[/B]
[B]Dark Lover[/B]

Now off this shortlist lets see who like running in big fields.

[B]Cash And Go[/B]
[B]Domination[/B]
[B]Dark Lover[/B]

So they all pass the test on this score.

Lets now look at the three contenders we have left

[B]Cash And Go[/B] - looks favourably treated off 141 and has reportedly pleased Nicky Henderson since joining him during the summer. Unbeaten on his seasonal reappearances, he will be ridden by Barry Geraghty. Everything looks in place for a big run.

[B]Domination[/B] - won the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket in September by four and a half lengths (runner-up won five times this season) off a mark of 77. He is a dual winner over hurdles and he finished a nose second behind prolific winner Baily Green at Killarney in September. He is ten pounds higher now but he is relatively unexposed.

[B]Dark Lover[/B] - is unbeaten in three races over hurdles and is rated 131. Absent due to injury from February 2011 until October this year, he made a successful return by beating the improving Changing The Guard by four lengths at Cheltenham. Eleven pounds higher now, he is unexposed and will go well off a light weight.

SELECTIONS

[B]Cash And Go[/B] - win single @ 6/1
[B]Dark Lover[/B] - e/w @ 14/1

Thurles

Bostons Angel looks a decent bet at 11/2 in the Listed Chase over at Thurles today. Jessica Harrington's string are in decent form and this former Grade One winner who lost his way last season has his easiest opportunity to score over fences for quite a while. A couple of runs over hurdles should have restored some confidence and all things point to a big run here. Roi Du Me looks a danger and will be hard to pass but I believe Bostons Angel is on his way back.

The maiden hurdle at 1455 looks very open and you can make a case for quite a few of them but Get Off The Stage comes here in good form and has Barry Geraghty booked for his only ride of the day. This is very much a speculative punt as he leapt off the page at me but more often than not it pays to follow your intuition.

BETS

1325 Thurles  Bostons Angel   win single @ 11/2
1455 Thurles  Get Off The Stage   win single @ 4/1

Sunday 4th November 2012

Yesterdays four selections all missed the target, a very disappointing day on the whole. I thought Fill The Power was left with far to much to do in the novice chase at Wetherby and will still be of interest in the future, providing he gets a better ride. Ace High's run was particularly bad, the jockey reported he ran flat and the horse routinely tested.

Onto today then and lets hope the selection fairs better than yesterdays effort's, there's a decent handicap chase at Carlisle and I think Sue Smith's Rebel Swing looks a decent each-way bet at 10/1, a course winner last time out and up 6lbs for that effort, he handles the conditions well and is a real tough character who should be in the van all the way round. Sue has a decent record here with her handicap chasers and a big run is expected.

Bet

Rebel Swing  -  Each-way @ 10/1