Dear All
sorry that I have not been posting to the blog but - so many viewers - so little contact from them makes me feel its not worthwhile,
the weather has made a mockery of form in relation to past results.
but now its settling down am looking forwards to Cheltenham like the rest of you but the blog will now close.
Very profitable of late but prediction needs to be based on sires past performance and most important paddock watch. Without all three is a waste of time -
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Cheers
bob
Wednesday, 26 February 2014
Saturday, 28 December 2013
The Coral Welsh National 28 12 13
The
Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow today 28th December A grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, It
is already considered to be heavy ground so fingers crossed for today. Its
gonna be a serious test of stamina
Last year - 2012: (17 ran) Monbeg
Dude, Age 8, Wgt 10 - 1, SP 10/1 - P
Carberry / M Scudamore
The pace was solid and not too many saw it
out in the conditions. MONBEG DUDE was
given an inimitable waiting ride by Paul Carberry and still had a lot of ground
to make up on the leading trio when moving into fourth place five from home.
His progress from there was relentless and he jumped ahead at the last - where
he made another mistake - before battling on. His jumping had been improved
when he won at Cheltenham last time, but he reverted to his old ways here with
a string of errors, which makes his victory all the more meritorious. This was
only his sixth run over fences and, while he´s a progressive young stayer, Had won its last race round Cheltenham 3m3f on soft ground – grade 3 (hes old enough
now and shown he can jump a fence and is a leading national fancy this
year. The well backed favourite Teaforthree (2nd) had been
targeted at this race for a long time, but just failed to reward his supporters
despite a fine run. In the first few throughout, jumping well, he went down
fighting to a horse to whom he was conceding 16lb; he´d been behind Monbeg Dude
on his seasonal return at Cheltenham too. A thorough stayer, he looks obvious
Grand National material.
So a bottom weight won it well last year and
yet the 10 year stats show it was out of the trends - this year the ground will
again help the lower weights for sure but there are a few outside the handicap
proper - Long Handicap: Amigo 9-12, Chartreux 9-11, Mountainous 9-9, Tour Des Champs 9-9, Ace High 9-9, Red Rocco 9-7, Harouet 9-7, One In A Milan 9-3
Age Horses
aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 7-10-60, which compares well to horses
aged 8+ of 3-19-118.
Horses aged 10+ have a very poor record having failed to win a single renewal in the past 10 years and
gaining just 4 places from 40 runners.
No strong trend on weights.
Top weight: PF3P2377F7 (0-3-10)
13 horses carrying a penalty (inside the
handicap 8 finished in the first 5) this brings in hey Big Spender 4lbsX and Knock a Hand 4lbs X
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished
in the first 4 last time (5
won)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55
days
9 of 10 winners had run
once or twice that season
10 of 10 winners had
won over 3M or further
7 of 10 winners had previously
won at Chepstow (3
exceptions were having their first course start)
8 of 10 winners had run
in 6 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2
handicap chases prior to this
8 of 10 winners were second or third
season chasers (2 exceptions were 4th season chasers)
9 of 10 winners had finished
in the first 3 in a listed/graded chase (exception had yet to run in a graded
chase but won Becher Chase on last run)
5 of last 7 winners ran in a 3M-3M1F
handicap hurdle on 1 of previous 2 runs
Other races
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 5
in Welsh/Scottish/Irish/Midlands Grand Nationals, the Hennessy or NH Chase at
Cheltenham (1 exception fell in the NH Chase when in with a big chance and
other won a 3M 4F grade 3 handicap on previous start) Clearly form in a prestigious chase
over 3M 2F or further is essential.
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners raced prominently or in
midfield
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or
shorter
Dream Alliance at
20/1 was the longest priced winner in the past 10 years.
The favourite (1-4-11) has won just 1 of last 10
and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.
Its a stayer race and you need fairly
fresh animals –
Highland Lodge fits that bill having its first
run since the hennessy – never been on this track before but gets in today off
a very good mark (has won in heavy ground to a mark of 151 and is 3lbs lower
than his achieved mark in the Hennessey
Vintage
Star has all the trend stats on its side loves the ground and is well in
on its last two runs
Knock a Hand has a touch of class this
ground helps it - it has run in big field hdles and ran in a hdle race 2 runs
back before recording a good win last time out
good luck all its a goodun!
Bob
Saturday, 14 December 2013
The Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup Cheltenham 2.25 141213
The
Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup one of the best chases coming our way its
been called many names over the years at
Cheltenham, 14th December at 2.25 a 2m5f
grade 3 handicap the going has remained good
5 of
the last 8 winners of this had made the frame in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on
their previous start.
Age
we looking for :-6yo: (4-7-27) and 7yo: (4-6-34)
only 1 4yr old in last 10 cos there was only 1 entered in last 10 years and
that was Unionist (who just flowed into a 5l win at Aintree last week! Forget the older brigade they have won only
once from 78 runs
6 & 7 year olds have the best records. Between them they have won 8 of the last 10
renewals from approximately 41.8% of the total runners.
Horses
aged 9+ have gained no wins and just 2 places from 44 runners since 2002. You
have to go back to 1993 for the last 9yo winner and 1974 for the last winner
aged older than 9.
Breeding
French bred: 8-11-54 (were 7 or younger.)
Weight 10-08 highest lowest 9-09 (the 4yr old Unionist weight
allowance ) had run to my rating of 127 and won it off 119 that day.
Official Ratings - 145 Minimum (5-9-47)
10 of 10 winners had
run only 1 to 3 times that season - you certainly need fitness (not much more
than a month) and finished in
the first 3 last time out. You need a horse with experience with at least
six chases and yet not really more than
12 runs and having won at least 2 chases and a couple of them in
handicaps and at least placed in a grade 1 with big plus for a Cheltenham
winner and a plus for running in the chelt festival
Irish
trained winners were 8yo second season chasers that had run in a graded novice
chase at that year’s Punchestown Festival.
7 of
10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 8/1, however 3 of last 7 winners were
sent off 16/1 or bigger.
Favourites (1-3-10) don’t have a great
record in this race. In 2009 Poquelin became the first winning favourite since
1996.
So
where does the blog go for a bet?
Silver RoqueFR (t) was third in the Paddy Power last year and
in that he looked as if he needed this 2m5f as a minimum powering at the end of
the 2miles. Last run was a 16l winner in a low grade 3 at Sedgefield 2m4f. Held up, steady headway after 9th,
tracked leader going well 4 out, led 2 out, soon clear, easily 3/1 fav had
returned from a 201 day break
Has won
3 chases and is a really dark
horse – handicapped at 143 (2lb below
the minimum) but my rating it has run to
144 and it won it really easily at that
mark G/soft ground seems its best results Cana front run plus jumps quickly and
neatly Fergal O’Brian is 7 from 44 at
Cheltenham giving +£52 profit to a level stake
Brennan has won on the horse and though some
bounce with a layoff good run, this one acts well within 32 days so that’s ok
is currently 20/1 betfair
Note on comparative form for the paddy power -Johns
Spirit
and Colour Squadron really worthy animals
and fall in with all the stats and horse profile this race. Both have been
raised a lot in the weights for their paddy power first and second Johns Spirit 9lbs raise Colour Squadron 7lbs
–
Johns
Spirit ran to 2lbs lower than this new
mark is the biggest improver this year but I only make it 4star units better than Silver Roque who is in turn 10star points clear of the
rest – (the next being AttaGlance who is 10lbs below
Silver Roque star rating
AttaGlance GB is 3lbs in on its
last win and that makes it interesting – Jefferson does not bring a horse to
Cheltenham for fun went really well in the paddy power achieving at least 140
behind johns Spirit and colour Squadron that day – they have both been
penalised- He hasn’t he was 2lbs well in that day – Saturday he is 9lbs and
11Lbs well in for five and a1/2 L beating
Salut
Flo FR
should not be discarded at this stage cos its 8 yrs old – pipe can get one
ready and it’s not run for nearly a year won a grade 1 around here 2m5f just how delicate is this animal? It is def a
chance worth taking on as a BTL it likes
to bowl along in front .
Johns Spirit is a really worthy animal and falls
in with all the stats and horse profile this race raised a lot in the weights for its paddy
power win is in my ratings still only
2lbs higher than that win is the biggest
improver this year but I only make
it 4star units better than Silver
Roque who is in turn 10star points clear
of the rest
Easter Meteor – very dark horse who absolutely loves front
run tactics and has form around here – from the lavelle yard they like a punt –
the horse went well at Newbury last time has front run and is well worth
watching the betting tonight it trades at 20/1 betfair
MA FILLEULE (fr) its
Henderson horse but can a pure fencing novice win this ? The stats say no --- therefore lay to bet animal
good luck today guys
Rob
Saturday, 7 December 2013
The Becher chase aintree 7th Dec 2013
The Becher chase has a lot going for it and its gonna be
quite a race at 2.05 Aintree with the ground being given as good to
soft with 24 runners (usually big fields
in this )
YEAR
|
WINNER
|
AGE
|
WGT
|
SP
|
TRAINER
|
JOCKEY
|
RPR
|
|||||
|
||||||||||||
14
|
10-0
|
14/1
|
137
|
|||||||||
9
|
10-10
|
10/1
|
153
|
|||||||||
12
|
10-5
|
15/2F
|
144
|
|||||||||
9
|
11-12
|
7/1
|
159
|
|||||||||
9
|
10-5
|
15/2
|
158
|
|||||||||
8
|
11-5
|
15/2
|
163
|
|||||||||
10
|
11-7
|
25/1
|
167
|
|||||||||
10
|
10-4
|
33/1
|
139
|
|||||||||
7
|
10-1
|
4/1F
|
137
|
|||||||||
8
|
10-12
|
11/2
|
147
|
And the trend to look
for is that the youngsters don’t get a great look in only 1 seven year old in
the last ten years off the minimum weight went off favourite for Nichols
Only three runners
carried more that 11-00 to victory
So first off you’re looking for 9 year olds in
the mid 10 stone to top 10-00 though the 10 year olds give the biggest price
winners and are well worth taking a peek at!
Rating – all 24
horses are within the winning handicap mark so there is little clue there
8 of the last 10 had
won over 3miles plus but had only Won in 2 handicap chases but whilst saying
that you want a horse that can run up with the pace
Nor does it go to
horses with a long layoff – about 50 days seems to have the key and at that to
have finished well in a big field and don’t discount the Irish horses they seem to be getting their act together
for this race
Any horse with good
forms around here or has recent good form at Haydock in a national trial Normally
there is quite a strong market as the race nears – if you fancy something
outside of the winning price range – take the place price early on Belfair –
watch for it running prominently for a bet in running works well this race
Animals that foot the bill for front running
this track are :
Walk on is French bred and thats one big key
to the race having won 7 of 28 bred runs
in 10 years went off 7/4 fav here last
run unseating after being bumped and
unsettled –that was pure bad luck but in
the Topham chase was beaten only half a length the problem is the distance of this race is he
a true stayer? Today will tell – is a
fine jumper of a fence
Across the bay is a
forgotton horse he can stay and he can jump from the front will be very
interested in any money coming late for this fella
Gullible Gordon
another that attracts the blog eye won by a 28l margin over 3m1f in a minor
race here can jump for fun and likes to run prominently.
Good luck all
Bob
Saturday, 16 November 2013
The Paddy Power Gold Cup 16th November 2.30 Cheltenham
The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place today Saturday 16th November over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase I make this a pointer race for the season and make plenty of notes the ground is given as good to good/soft and clear weather forecast
First three home last year (soft ground) were all french bred (5 French runners in all) one finished 6th and the other pulled up - 18 ran and only 6 finished with one faller and the rest pulled up the first two werew 7 the third a 6yr old
last years write up - a contest with a long history and always very competitive. Subsequent Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander took this in 2008 and there were several in this year´s line-up with the potential to follow in his footsteps. Two of those were AL FEROF (11-08) and Walkon (10-06) and, once the pair joined issue turning for home, they came right away from the rest.
Al Ferof, finished third in the Victor Chandler, was a previous course winner over both hurdles and fences. He had won over 2m3 1/2f over hurdles but was unproven at this trip.
Walkon, a winner and runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle over hurdles on this track back in 2009 but well beaten in the RSA Chase in the spring, appreciated the softer ground and, after travelling well in the wake of the leaders, came out of the pack as the main challenger to the winner. Nadiya De La Vega,(10-08) runs today carrying 10-03 was 15l behind the winner had made a winning reappearance on this track previous month, was 8lb higher in a tougher race. She showed up just off the pace throughout but could not go with the first two from the home turn. She looks up to winning good races season. Any Money for this mare could be very significant she runs well fresh and is 2lbs well in on last years handicap
you dont want a 5yr old 9 yr old or 10 year old that's for sure they have performed horribly in this race
First three home last year (soft ground) were all french bred (5 French runners in all) one finished 6th and the other pulled up - 18 ran and only 6 finished with one faller and the rest pulled up the first two werew 7 the third a 6yr old
last years write up - a contest with a long history and always very competitive. Subsequent Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander took this in 2008 and there were several in this year´s line-up with the potential to follow in his footsteps. Two of those were AL FEROF (11-08) and Walkon (10-06) and, once the pair joined issue turning for home, they came right away from the rest.
Al Ferof, finished third in the Victor Chandler, was a previous course winner over both hurdles and fences. He had won over 2m3 1/2f over hurdles but was unproven at this trip.
Walkon, a winner and runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle over hurdles on this track back in 2009 but well beaten in the RSA Chase in the spring, appreciated the softer ground and, after travelling well in the wake of the leaders, came out of the pack as the main challenger to the winner. Nadiya De La Vega,(10-08) runs today carrying 10-03 was 15l behind the winner had made a winning reappearance on this track previous month, was 8lb higher in a tougher race. She showed up just off the pace throughout but could not go with the first two from the home turn. She looks up to winning good races season. Any Money for this mare could be very significant she runs well fresh and is 2lbs well in on last years handicap
you dont want a 5yr old 9 yr old or 10 year old that's for sure they have performed horribly in this race
Weight Higher weights have held a slight advantage with 6 of last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more. 7 of 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 39.4% of total runners.
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 of 4 exceptions placed in a grade 1 hurdle)
6 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season, 3 winning and 1 finished 2nd)
6 of 6 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an MR of 146+ on last completed start
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
Last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree
8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival
Price
The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000. (3-3-10) have gained 3 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2003 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 6.00.
- Aged 6 or 7- Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase(Tap Night -Mccoy)- Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
- Second or third season chaser
- Previously run less than 10 times over fences
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
- Ran in a chase at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival
- First 6 in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase
- Trained in Great Britain
- Trained by David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson
This is a hard nut to crack on trends - most will go for the higher rated horses and there is a clear picture of them in past winners - however am strongly attracted to Twiston buggers record with the animals rated below the 147 mark Imperial Commander won this easily off a mark of only 139 carrying 10-05
today he runs Astracad (French sire to big bucks) off a mark of 142 - previous winner CDG is wrth a mark of around 147 in my ratings is 5lbs well in today - will be Ok on this ground - that brings Conquisto into the picture as well - beating Astracad fair and square at Aintree last time and a fast improving animal both animals tick a majority of the trend boxes Both animals are out with the washing at the time of blogging and offer excellent each way value
Champion Court is a box ticker and is 2lbs still well in carrying top weight on ground he likes well won at the festival and has come second on soft ground after a lay off the price is about right for the win chances today
good luck all
Bob
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