Tattersalls Million Irish Champion Stakes September 4th

The Tattersalls Million Irish Champion Stakes takes place at Leopardstown on Saturday 4th September and it is one of the best flat races run in Europe each year. There have been some superb duels down the years such as St Jovite and Dr Devious, Fantastic Light and Galileo and Dylan Thomas and Ouija Board. Last year Sea The Stars put in one of his best performances to win the race and the horse he beat into 2nd (Fame And Glory) is looking to go one better this time around.
 as ever solid pointers in Blue type  --  Red type negatives and -- Purple -  place chances


 Good to firm going but already had showers and now at 11am a really hard downpour - the good to firm could go quickly at Leopardstown and more rain forecast - keep checking the course correspondent on racing post site 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	6	6	32
4yo	3	5	26
5yo	1	3	12
6yo+	0	0	4

3yos (6-6-32) have a superior record to the older horses (combined 4-8-42) and 3yos have won 5 of the last 6 renewals

Gender

Fillies and mares (0-2-11) have a poor record in the race, gaining just 2 places from 11 runners in the past decade. today - Lady of the desert (3 yr old filly) Rainfall (3 yr old filly) Serious Attitude(3 yr old filly)

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season

10 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F or 1M 4F (exception was having first run over further than a mile)

10 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (8 of 10 had won more than one)

5 of 10 winners had previously run at Leopardstown and all 5 wereunbeaten at the track

5 of 6 winners aged 3 had won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo

Other Races

Eclipse Stakes winner (Twice Over): 12211 (3-2-5)

Judmonte International winner (Rip Van Winkle): 121 (2-1-3)

Irish Derby winner (Cape Blanco): 24412 (1-2-5)

Previous season's Futurity Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 1211 (3-1-4)

Previous season's Tyros Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 1 (1-0-1)

5 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in the Judmonte International last time, finishing 14231 (Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over)

4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 3421 (Rip Van Winkle)

4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas finishing 2222 (Cape Blanco)

3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Eclipse, finishing 111 (Twice Over)

3 of 6 winners aged 3 had won the Futurity as a 2yo (Cape Blanco)

2 of 6 winners aged 3 had won the Beresford as a 2yo

2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurst, finishing 21(Beethoven)

3 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 112

3 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the King George, finishing 251

2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, finishing 12

2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Breeder’s Cup Turf, finishing 51

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (5-6-26) has a super record in this race having won 5 of the last 10 runnings. If you just count his first strings his record improves to 5-4-10.

British-trained runners (2-6-24) have won 2 of the last 10, both those winner were trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (2-0-8).

Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 8/1, not a race for big turn-ups.

Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 0.83.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: 

·         Aged 3

·         Run 3+ times this season & won 1 of last 2 starts

·         Won over 1M 2F or 1M 4F

·         Won a group 1 (won more than 1 if aged 4+)

·         Unbeaten at Leopardstown

·         Won the Eclipse, Futurity and/or Judmonte International

·         Ran in the Judmonte International last time out

·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien

·         From first 4 in the betting




well this looks a laydown for the trends so what else can catch the eye?


 MY Bet is Cape Blanco for the win - has age on its side and will love the distance beat home Workforce in the dante 1m2f g/frm and has all the stats above - plus i cannot resist Heffernen getting the ride as one of the most underated in the Obrien yard - pacemaker for Rip ? well he has to go from the front anyway so why not 


 Fallon as usual has to be respected on the outsider Sea Lord - its run at Goodwood produced a decnt time over 1m in the Totesport Mile heritage Handicap  a figure of 93 and four wins on the bounce -  not the first time a johnston horse has gone to Ireland and he has one winner from 11 runners at this track (Pams system of picking winner trainers comes into fore"! in fact with his low ratio runners to wins makes him top trainer and Fallon has given up some good rides in Uk to come here --- he definitely looks better than a handicapper and though the classy animals look so good i have to say its front running tactics could pay off for decent bet at long odds in the place market and will back this 80/20 place win


 good luck 


 Bobt

The Betfred Sprint Cup Saturday 4th September

The Betfred Sprint Cup takes place at Haydock on Saturday 4th September. It’s a six-furlong group 1 open to horses aged 3 and above. Starspangledbanner, who has won both the 6F group 1’s (July Cup & Golden Jubilee) run in Britain so far this season is looking to add another in this.

 updated 11-30 today Two out of the Sprint Cup

(4) Fullandby and (16) Rainfall are out of the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup (3.35) there are currently 14 runners 

going ---Word from the clerk

After a dry night, clerk of the course Kirkland Tellwright said: "We have a dry, warm day forecast. The going on the five and six furlong course is good to firm, while over a mile or greater the 

going is good, good to soft in places."

BLUE  Solid Stats  Purple each way stats  Red - negative stats

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	0
3yo	3	3	34
4yo	3	10	43
5yo	3	3	30
6yo+	1	4	32

9 of 10 winners were aged 3 to 5

The winners have been fairly evenly distributed out over ages 3 to 5
but horses aged 6+ have fared poorly, gaining just 1 win from approximately 23% of the runners.

Gender

Fillies/mares (3-3-18) have done well in this group 1, gaining 3 wins and filling 20% of the places from just 13% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season

8 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR in their last 3 runs

9 of 10 winner had won a listed race or higher (exception was 2nd in a group 1)

6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a group 1

9 of 10 winners had won over 6F or 7F

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Regal Parade): 72 (0-1-2)

Hackwood Stakes winner (Regal Parade): 01033 (1-2-5)

Temple Stakes winner (Kingsgate Native): 5310 (1-1-4)

Duke Of York Stakes winner (Prime Defender): 71750002 (1-1-8)

Prix Maurice De Gheest winner (Regal Parade): 0522 (0-2-4)

Prix Maurice De Gheest winner (Regal Parade): 0522 (0-2-4)

July Cup winner (Starspangledbanner): 62052 (0-2-5)

Hopeful Stakes winner (Doncaster Rover): 35 (0-1-2)

Golden Jubilee winner (Starspangledbanner): 820 (0-1-3)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Nunthorpe last time, finishing 3214 this brings in Starspangledbanner(2nd) and Prime Defender(4th)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 3518

3 of 10 winners ran in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 649 this brings in Starspangled banner - Prime Defender Serious Attitude and Sir Gerry and Regal Parade who finished 15th and 16th

3 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 212

2 of 10 winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 33

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Maurice De Gheest, finishing 22

2 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 14

Trainers

Barry Hills (1-1-6) PRIME DEFENDER  21s betfair currently drawn 13 age 6 (he has already withdrawn Equiano) and Roger Charlton Genki (1-1-6) 4 aged 6  have  saddled the winner and a placed finisher in the race in the past 10 years.

D Nicholls (1-0-6) trained Regal Parade (drawn 6 age 6) to win the race last year and he’s attempting to be the first horse since Be Friendly in 1967 to win back to back renewals of the race.

Irish-trained horses (0-0-8) have not fared well in this, with all 8 of their representatives finishing unplaced.

Draw (excluding 2008 running at Doncaster)

Horses drawn 1 to 5: 1-7-45

Horses drawn 6 to 10: 6-7-45

Horses drawn 11 or higher: 2-4-34

Horses drawn in the bottom 5 stalls have struggled, gaining just 1 win. 
Those drawn in stalls 6 to 10 have won 6 of the last 9 runnings at Haydock.

Price

7 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting

There have been a few shocks in the past 10 years, including a 25/1 and two 14/1 winners but most of the victors were prominent in the betting.

Favourites (2-2-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.75.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 3 to 5

·         Fillies & mares do well

·         Finished in the first 3 last time out

·         Won a listed or higher (placed in a group 1)

·         Won over 6F or 7F

·         Finished in the first 3 in Duke Of York and/or Temple Stakes

·         Finished in first 4 in Nunthorpe/Prix Maurice Du Gheest last time

·         From first 5 in the betting

·         Drawn 6 to 10

·         Trained in Britain


 so with the favourites record in the race and Starspangalledbanner drawn just outside 
the 6 to 10 best drawn it does not forbode well for the favourite at these odds 


The Duke of York stakes looks the race to consider for the bet and though not a great draw Prime Defender will love the ground and Hills record makes it look solid 


 Doncaster Rover  3rd in the duke and a decent winner last week - age 4 drawn 10 third in the Duke of York  will do for me at the current 28s 

Joker in the pack ---Markab age 7 drawn 14 2nd to equiano ascot 150610 from a poor draw 14/1 king stand stakes Markab was fourth in the Wokingham at last year´s Royal meeting and only gained his first Group win last month. He had never run at the top level, nor had he raced over the minimum trip, but ran a cracker. Leading the group of five who raced away from the rail, he moved into second place overall with a furlong left and battled on willingly, although never able to reach the winner. Sure to be suited by a step back up in trip to this 6flngs today 

The Pegasus Matron stakes for saturday 4th 2.40

The Coolmore Fusaichi Pegasus Matron Stakes is a group 1 race for fillies and mares, run over a mile and is part of the supporting card of Irish Champion Stakes Day at Leopardstown on Saturday 4th September. The race wa run at the Curragh up until 2001 and it was given group 1 status in 2004. It has been won by some very useful horses, such as Soviet Song and Attraction and British raiders have been fairly dominant in the past decade.
Going 

1:51am

Going change

Now good to firm, good in places from good to firm. Have had a bet with a pal that it will be good by the Coolmore Fusaichi Pegasus Matron Stakes (2.40) as it is still lightly raining.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	7	10	63
4yo	2	5	17
5yo	1	2	6
6yo+	0	1	3

Since the race became a group 1 in 2004:

3yos: 3-5-31

4yo+: 3-5-18

In the three years that 3yos won this as a group 1 only two of the seven older horses to run in it were priced under 16/1: (Peeress 2nd in 2006, Heaven Sent 2nd in 2009).

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had won over a mile

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (5 won)

10 of 10 winners had won at listed level or above

Since this became a group one 6 of 6 winners had won a group race(4 were group 1 winners)

10 of 10 winners ran in last 45 days

Other Races

Falmouth Stakes winner (Music Show): 12 (1-1-2)

Coronation Stakes winner (Lillie Langtry): 6241 (1-1-4)

1000 Guineas winner: 23 (0-2-2)

Irish 1000 Guineas winner (Bethrah): 2533 (0-2-4)

Derrinstown Stud 1000 Guineas Trial winner (Bethrah): 288 (0-1-3)

Nell Gwynn Stakes winner (Music Show): 6 (0-0-1)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Falmouth, finishing 914

3 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 613

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Nassau Stakes, finishing 22

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the 1000 Guineas, finishing 65

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 54

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Sandringham Handicap, finishing 11

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 54

Since this became a group one, 5 of 6 winners had run in the 1000 Guineas as 3yos, finishing 41965

Trainers

British-trained horses: 8-11-30

Irish-trained horses: 2-7-59

British-based trainers have dominated this race, having won 8 of the last 10 and since it became a group 1 they have won 5 of 6 and filled 12 of 16 places.

Jim Bolger (1-1-6) and Dermot Weld (1-1-6) are the only two Irish trainers to have saddled the winner of this race in the past 10 years.

This is one of the very few Irish group 1’s that Aidan O’Brien (0-3-14) has not trained the winner of in the past decade, despite having had 14 runners go to post.

Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or below

All 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting, not a race to be looking for an upset.

Favourites (6-3-10) have won 6 of the last 10, including the last 3 and show a level stakes profit of 5.47.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Finished in the first 3 in a group race last time out

·         Ran in last 45 days

·         Won over a mile

·         Won a group race (preferably a group 1)

·         Ran in the 1000 Guineas as a 3yo Gile Na Greine and Music Show 

·         Trained in Britain

·         Priced 6/1 or below


  Selection and bet 
Looks to me if the trend stand up as ever the horse to beat must be the british trained Music show - as there are very few runners the forecast must be a reasonable bet and have coupled with Gile Na Greine - hopeing the ground has eased for this one to get in the frame second and with more ease will rev the forecast anyway - ran a stormer in the Falmouth but the 100gns form on g/sft impressed me the most