Satuday & Smacking the Bookies

Having spent the morning roaming Kent on a fruitless goose chase for the Boss so had little chance for analysis.......the Boss had even less time but managed to so her two lines for Scoop6.....one she chooses completely at random and the other from a study of the RP.......she often does very well....and it is suprising how often the random return 2-3 winners. Her RP selections today returned 5 winners and one of course that didn't bother!

We have a Saturday policy of backing the horses that we both agree on - today there were 4 Masterminded (wasn't we superb!), Island Sunset, Menorah and Indian Violet.....perhaps I should post her selections too! Happy days!

This harks back to earlier debates......Bob uses extensive notes & VFB JohnC is a pure systems man, we find we do best when we combine our systems which is why I am slowly building up my notes to back up what the numbers say.

The Vote A.P. Gold Cup trends bobT

The Vote A.P. Gold Cup a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 2M 5F. Usually many horses that contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November run in this and 3 of the last 5 winners of this had made the frame in the Paddy Power Gold Cup before taking this.

The race was not run in 2001 and 2008. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (1998 to 2009):

Age 6 and 7 year olds have the best records. Between them they have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 35% of the total runners.

Horses aged 9+ have gained no wins and just 1 place from 45 runners since 1998. You have to go back to 1993 for the last 9yo winner and 1974 for the last winner aged over 9.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 6-12-74

Horses carrying 10-12 or lower: 4-12-60

Not a huge bias either way though in recent years higher weights have held the call with the last 3 winners all carrying 11-4 or more and only one placed finisher in the past 3 years carried less than 10-11.

Record of top weight: 2494P4P5PR9 (0-1-11)

4 of the 5 runners to carry a penalty have been placed (0-4-5)

Official Ratings

No huge bias on official ratings though the last 3 winners have been rated 149, 150 and 151, which signals that maybe a higher rated runners should be favoured.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run in 4 or less handicap chases

9 of 10 winners gained RPR of 144+ last time out

9 of 10 finished in the first 3 last time out

9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a graded chase (exception was having first run in a graded chase but had won a class 2)

9 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 9 chases prior to running in this

8 of 10 winners ran in past 30 days

8 of 10 winners were 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)

5 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 others were placed here)

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Poquelin): 50 (0-0-2)

Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Little Josh): 4P1 (1-0-3) (Mad Max finished 4th)

Grand Annual Handicap Chase winner (Pigeon Island): 9 (0-0-1)

Byrne Group Plate winner (Great Endeavour): 7957 (0-0-4)

7 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 Grand Annual, 2 Arkle, 1 RSA, 1 Jewson, 1 Coral Cup and (1 Byrne Group Plate Great Endeavour)

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 312

2 of 10 winners ran in the Wayward Lad Novice Chase, finishing 1F

2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Bord Na Mona Nov Chase, finishing RU

2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in a graded novice chase at Punchestown Festival, finishing 26

Trainers

Jonjo O’Neill (2-0-6), Nicky Henderson (2-0-8) have each won the race twice since 1998

Paul Nicholls (1-8-18) finally won the race last year with Poquelin after saddling a placed finisher in the previous 5 renewals.

Nicky Richards (0-3-4) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-3-9) have each trained multiple placed runners in the past 10 runnings.

Irish trained horses (2-2-13) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 13 runners. Both were 8yo second season chasers that had run in a graded novice chase at the Punchestown Festival.

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 8/1

Favourites (1-2-10) don’t have a great record in this race. Last year, Poquelin became the first winning favourite in the past decade.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 6 or 7
• Finished in the first 3 last time and posted an RPR of 144+
• Ran in the last 30 days
• Carrying 10-11+
• Run 6 to 9 times over fences
• Run in 4 or less handicap chases
• 2nd season chaser
• Won or placed in a grade chase
• Finished in first 3 in Paddy Power Gold Cup
• Trained by J O’Neill, N Henderson, P Nicholls or N Richards
• Priced between 4/1 to 8/1

No Great conviction this evening and this part could change in the morning ! Great Endevour won the Bryne cup well and has only 10-04 which does not fit the trends There are only three horses that fit the weight trends they are Little Josh   Mad Max and

Pyscho Irish trained who gets in here well of 11-01 handles the track well and came close to winning the Vincent Obrien hdles  Trainer Martin is a great raider and the horse is bred from Dr Massini he has booked Russell for the ride and is very tempting

International hdle Cheltenham 111210 Trends BobT

The StanJames.com International Hurdle (formerly the Bula) is a grade 2 hurdle run over 2M 1F Cheltenham on Saturday, 11th December. It is one of the most valuable hurdles races run in Europe.

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

The last 6 winners have been aged 4 to 7. 

Weight

6 of the last 9 winners carried 11-4. The last 2 winners to carry 11-8 were trained in Ireland.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 runners had finished in first 3 in a graded hdle last time

10 of 10 winners had previously run in at least 6 hurdles races

10 of 10 winners were officially rated 148+

8 of 10 winners had won a graded or listed hurdle (both exceptions were placed in a graded hurdle on their last start)

8 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in the last 30 days

7 of 10 winners were course and distance winners (1 exception had yet to run at the track, another had finished runner-up in the Greatwood Hurdle and the other was runner-up in the Champion Hurdle)

Other Races

Greatwood Hurdle winner (Menorah): 1111 (4-0-4)

Ascot Hurdle winner (Silviniaco Conti): 2 (0-0-1)

5 of 10 winners ran at the Aintree National meeting (2 Aintree Hurdle, 1 Anniversary, 1 Top Novice and 1 Silver Cross H'cap Hurdle)

Trainers

Philip Hobbs (2-0-4) has saddled 2 of the last 10 winners of this race.

Paul Nicholls (1-1-5) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-2) have also trained the winner in the past 10 running’s.

Price

7 of 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter

The favourite (5-1-11) has won 5 of the last 8 and shows a level stakes profit of 0.95 since 1999. 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 4 to 7
• Finished in the first 3 in a grade hurdle in the past 30 days
• Carrying 11-4
• Won a listed or graded hurdle
• Course and distance winner
• Greatwood Hurdle winner
• Trained by Philip Hobbs
• Price 7/1 or lower (favourite does well)

 So you cannot see past Menorah for the trends – but how good is Cue Card ? – he was our pick to win the bumper here last year and has pinged his hdles this year – is he a freak ? has he enough experience with only 4 runs (all wins) 

At these skinny prices am tempted to play the each way market and look for an animal with c/dist form on holding ground and that brings in Clerks Choice who has experience of 6 hdles winning 4 of them carries 11-04 he just did not handle the track at Haydock last time but actually put up a faster time that menorah at Cheltenham

 Will also be watching for any money coming for the German bred Der Speiler under Geraghty he put up a very decent display at Punchestown 141010 and went into my notebook as a possible if it ever came over here any sort of similar display could get him into the frame for a big place

Trends -Tingle Creek 1.55 Cheltenham 111210 Bob T

The Keith Prowse Hospitality Tingle Creek Chase HAS BEEN TRANSFERRED FROM SANDOWN A grade 1 chase run over 2 miles which has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade including Master Minded, Flagship Uberalles, Moscow Flyer and Kauto Star. Twist Magic, who has won the race in 2007 and last year, will be looking to win it for a third time.

 Now that it’s running at Cheltenham you have to mainly ignore the trends as going from a fast right handed level track to a left hand undulating track. But we can take a look at where the characteristics are similar –

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses aged 5 to 7: 7-8-31

Horses aged 8+: 3-3-36

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had won a chase by 9 lengths or more

9 of 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1 chase (Kauto Star was the exception, he had not previously run in a Grade 1)

8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (both exceptions were Flagship Uberalles in 2000 and 2001) That’s a big stat as only three today qualify(Master Minded – Gauvain – Im So Lucky)

6 of 10 winners had previously run that season Im So Lucky and Petit Robin havent

7 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases (3 exceptions trained by Nicholls) but Course form today may count more

Other Races

Highest finisher in Queen Mother Cheltenham (Kalahari King): 541236213 (2-2-9)

Game Spirit Chase winner Newbury  (Master Minded): 121 (2-1-3)

Celebration Chase Sandown winner (I'm So Lucky): 21641 (2-1-5)

Sinbad Testimonial 2010/2011 Chase winner Cheltenham (Gauvain): 3 (0-0-1)

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (6-3-20) has won the last 5 running’s and but for Moscow Flyer would have trained the last 8 winners.  

It seems as if it takes an exceptional chaser to beat the Nicholls team in this race. The only two non-Nicholls winners in the last 10 years have been Moscow Flyer and Flagship Uberalles, both were winners of the Arkle & Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Henrietta Knight (0-2-2) saddled Edredon Bleu to finish runner-up in this twice in the past decade. She run the almost novice chaser Somersby who was second in the Arkle The only two horses that have beaten the Nichols team both won the Arkle! And was only beaten 3/4l by Sizing Europe and the form may stand up well

Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

All 10 winners since 2000 went off 6/1 or shorter.

Favourites (5-4-11) have won 5 of the last 10 running’s of this and show a level stakes profit of 2.01.

Am not sure how much to take into account the age factor - this is more about trainer form for the Cheltenham track and despite his score here as a hurdler am not convinced of Master Minded chasing form around here over 2miles  much better time figures on a flat  stiff track - think he will be well under the price just because its Master Minded and Nichols - cannot lay it but cannot back it either-- 

so speed over 2miles Cheltenham and an improving profile brings in Gauvain 10 runs won its last three (last 2 were 2miles at Cheltenham g/soft) has won a class 1 chase and run 10 times  is German bred and their score is very high at this track outside of the festival. Has Williams and Jacobs who are in scorching form at the moment 

Cheltenham review 101210 Bobt

Well you have to put your hands together for the racing today - it was a bit holding and the track took some getting
 Starting off on my notes -12.10 Reve De Sivola  won and won well considering the interference from the fallers that stopped him in his tracks allowed a quiet time put back into the race from a seemingly impossible position
Well impressed with Safari Adventures in the 1.15 - seldom seen a horse take to these fences so well - pretty fast pace and exciting jumper who did not touch a twig and still found some after the last was carrying 11-12  in this conditionals under Gilllies who really is worth your analyser notes. Fine Parchment won well no mistake about that getting 7lbs but Safari is a future nap horse for me and upped in trip will be a force.

1.50 and Barwell Bridge bred for better ground ran an absolute blinder under Daryl Jacobs and with better ground or faster will win big this term  beaten home by Lush Life (napped by John C)

2.25 Midnight Chase such an exciting prospect that's four on the bounce was all blue in the VFB and backed right down to 11/4 hit the last hard but battled back under Costello for a big win (three guys put it up on the naps table for the win including John B well done us lot!) The second horse Presenting Forever is from Presenting (yes it was receiving 1stone 3lbs) but it is an analyser horse because of the breeding for chases at Ascot and now Cheltenham only 6 years old was stylish until running out of stamina - give it a year and will be a class act  

 3.35 I backed Daryll  Jacobs on Thoresby  in this for the place at 30s betfair and duly obliged - thought the fall by the odds on fav was no more than a silly mistake but again was impressed with Jacobs who had no chance but suddenly saw his opportunity and galvanised the animal.

 Hope you all did well today  

Cheltenham Friday 10th Dec - bob t

Proper racing and a proper nap today in the 2.25 - Midnight chase 11/2 current betfair - This horse has all the credentials for a bold display at this distance and possibility of the ground being a bit sticky wont worry it. Up 9lbs for a front running impeccable display over 3m2f . Has to take on some very very good horses but am relying on his front running ability - gelding bred from Midnight legend at 8yrs old has all the aces for track ground and distance - looking at the past trends for the race 4 favourites have won it and 5 have carried more than 11-00 all have had track experience and all have been inside the single figure mark 


Just hope you go watch and listen to this (martin in the crowd) hilarious  punting heaven
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jlkMR0_Lsg&feature=related


 good luck today guys will put up the trends for tomorrow's big races tonight 

Proper racing is back

Okay Bob, no complaining now - racing is back! I'm expecting a Nap from you today (a loser I hope) as I am steadily slipping further and further behind, but, all is not lost! I am confident of ending the month some 18 points up - so watch yourself young man!

Shotgun style - or should that be machine gun tipping?

Cheltenham:

12.10 Spirit River
12.40 Aather
1.15 Wolf Moon
1.50 Ackertac
2.25 Neptune Collonges
3.00 Carabella Boy (subject to inspection)
3.35 Al Ferof

2miles kempton anyone? Thursday 9th Dec Bobt

Great day yesterday - up at the break of dawn to get the long john's an airing and Clint Eastwood look alike bobt out into the wilds of Kent. There is nothing like the bonding of a shooting party cursing and swearing as it limps/strides off to make a hide or set out decoys nearly 2 miles away from the nearest pub ( lunch beckons almost as soon as the coffee is gone at about 8.30)
My old Dog Bella would have been in her element she loved retrieving on days like that - only took Pippa who was exemplary - shes a funny lil gal unlike any I have ever had - where Bella needed a lookout and a special hole made in the hide for her to see, Pippa is content to sit and look at me just waiting for her commands.
The fields were bleak and to be honest bloody freezing breeze came up as the mist started to clear. I have some really good old clothing and a balaclava that soon became sodden  the cold now gets into just about every joint despite the gear and  as the breeze brought the mist to the hide and straight into my face soon gave me that one man and his dog feeling.
Could hear the guns a couple of  field away and waited -- and waited  and waited and still Pippa did not move and then the rabbits emerged - those of you who have not sat in a hide will not know that rabbits never arrive  you have to be looking away you have to be stroking your dog - taking a nip from the flask and then they are there when next you look.
The fields are over run  and the rabbits are not lean at all quite astonishingly they seem as if still in their prime despite the time of year - next years crops will be decimated if they are not controlled
had a couple out on a walk who did not disturb them and even a dog wandered through on its own and investigated us without starting them.
Took out 5 which is no great bag, 3 bucks and 2 doe's, and all retrieved in the most efficient and quiet way by Pippa  -(de peed) and gutted and into the carrier by 11 am. Back to the car and back at the pub by noon. Smashing meal and chat  in front of a wood fire.

 Shared the bounty and home by 4.30 hosed down and cooked to perfection by 7.30 and all the cold forgotten dogs laying in front of the fire, home is the hunter home from the hill and the sailor home from the sea and all that stuff  can it get any better than this ?

Today will be off to get some Christmas shopping done for my girls  Debenhams  just does not hold me in great thrall (have you noticed the perfume counters are always straight inside the door and designed to make you gag and sprint past the ladies who look like clowns with so much make up they look orange)

So there is a race that interests me on the AW at 6pm kempton - incidentally the richest race of the day at only £3886 and am toying with laying Spring Jim who does not have the profile of an Aw winner in my eyes why at the age of 9 its trying the surface for the first time? Can only mean its ready for a run and they want to keep him on the go - was entered in plenty of hldes that have been called off.
My idea of the winner comes from Sinbad the Sailor who has all the blues but not sure the track will suite it as much and a weight disadvantage off  Satwa Gold who seems well in for this race and track has been beaten by Sinbad (Lingfield) but is off a mark of only 76 today and gets weight from that one  have already backed at 13/2 and will see later what's happened to the market .
Good luck today everyone
 Bob
     

BIG Outsider ....

BIG outsider to consider on the all weather today !! Larimar 2.10 Kemp - a newcomer. Currently trading at 28/1 on Betfair.


Edit: As usual Unplaced

the times are they are a changing -- Bobt

Cheltenham - course completely covered  - forecast daytime temperatures are positive and officials are very optimistic ---the card is just fantastic - say that again Fanbloodytastic 


 Rerouted from Sandown - Tingle Creek - Vote AP Gold Cup - Stan James Hdle 
 three of the top races for the year 
 have looked through the trends of these races and yes the Tingle stats wont hold up going from 2miles right handed to 2miles undulating but the other two will and still plenty of entries 

looking for Martin Bobt

 Well am off to the wilds of Kent tomorrow - this is my new toy high powered air rifle that can take out Rabbits quietly without the others knowing a thing about it  (This rifle is powerful enough to take down a Muntjak)- My friends have a Brussels crop that is being decimated so while the big boys play with the shotguns  and take out the pigeons I will be showing of my skills  bagging a few rabbits (Crossed Rifle's Boer war) - long time since I had a muzzle loader a wad and a rammer Martin!
So it will be rabbit in Cider and leeks with fluffy potato and buttered cabbage (will send the recipe to anyone who wants a feast) -- first get your rabbit

Tuesday 7th

Having spent an hour or more looking at the less than inspiring offering for tomorrow I managed to find a tip......I'm not sure Ill be putting money on it though......It's a MansWorld....in the 3.00pm at Southwell. It ran today at Southwell and was 2nd by 1/2 length. Looking back it won after a similar short time last year and the opposition is even less inspired than today.....Interesting to see AP winning on the AW today......

John

weather -- oh oh 061210 Bobt

Looking at the racing post weather and going forecasts we will be lucky if we get any turf/jumps till Friday  the 10th - Cheltenham are putting covers down the complete tracks with forecasts down to -5 it looks grim. Any thaw will be welcome and in the mean time its Christmas shopping for me ---
BOWLS 
 Went to the bowls club last night and played the yard of the jack competition for the Christmas turkey - wonder of wonders 3 woods in the circle last wood 3 inches away from the jack that gives me maximum 5 points and in the lead ( my bowl partners amazed at the skill and dexterity flow and finesse) was questioned for 20 mins to establish if I was a ringer) Only if the next 100 guys get any better score ie 3 in the circle  two in the last foot or one touching the jack will I be robbed. So have crossed off the turkey purchase!   (yeah right)   
COME DANCING
At Last that old nasty has been eliminated from Come Prancing -revolting creature that she is without any form of social grace (she really did think her remaining in was a triumph of  personality over the lovelies) urrgh - but at least was not forced to watch as was by that time already at the card table. nice to pick up the money on her elimination though -- think there are two eliminations this weekend and am taking a price on the welsh rugby playing dlido and the country file matinee idol to go --- 
POKER 
-- and it happened again  - held a royal flush  in holdum - AND No One had a hand to even go through three rounds ---
 Mazie and Pippa 
Thanks for the comment on Maize picture John - she's 5 yrs old now and compared to the Pippa is as thick as a brick but she learns slow and it sticks - she is superbe and will now walk into a field instead of racing off after the first sign of a rabbit in the distance -  the ground worries me at the moment as she can jar herself badly at full stretch her legs are like matchsticks and chasing is extremely dodgy.


Am probably off for a bit of pigeon shooting this week  down at Minster in Kent but will only be taking Pippa to retrieve - will put up a few pics of the day


 good luck all with the AW rubbish at least the layers and traders will make a killing


 Bobt  

All weather racing

Good afternoon...... Watching the Morning Line this morning I was fascinated by the discussion that centred on the aw. As we all know ( and have lost cash to prove it) the winners in these mediocre races often come from yards where trainers have been "clever" in their placements. Long price horses appear all too often. The betting yards place small bets with local bookmakers and appear to back horses placed higher in the betting to shorten their odds before hitting their own horse. Signposts to look for are horses from these stables suddenly being entered into a race with a good claiming jockey when they have shot up the handicap.

Shouthwell on fibresand is a specialist course and form does not always translate especially because there is a lot of kickback.....here it really is horses for courses.

All this then does not help my theory that aw racing should perhaps be more predictable due to the nature of the track. It appears you really do need inside information!

John

Oh Well - At Least will be able to go Christmastime shopping! Bobt

The racing remains Dire and wont be testing my bank  apart from one race on the 1m6f (1.55 Southwell ) - So far the chances of picking anything that will run to anything like consistent has been a joke -  But why allow the layers to laugh all the way home so its just the one for me.
Am weighing up the chances of Sunny Spell ( whatever that means) is proven the distance and runs well fresh - actually gets in off a decent mark today and has achieved a mark of 60 here at southwell and won a class 6 at goodwood with a break of 76 days  Ryan Clark Rides and is the best performing jockey at the track in the race have taken the 5s this morning and as its a bit of a hold up animal have asked for an in running price of 8s.
In the same race I like to think that Frameit has place chances - is an absolute stayer never tried on the surface but a decnt lil hurdler that stays 2miles on good ground extremely well  its 2miles run at Wolverhampton (hd behind the  current second fav Stadium of Light) and now better off at the weights  by 3lbs looks as if can get passed that one - the rest of the field dont look that clued up either off their current marks so think Framite has most to offer for the forecast.


 Sunny Spell win Framite place  (reverse forecast the two) 


will leave the rest of the cards alone 


 Bobt 

All ? Weather betting Thursday Bobt

Can hardly be called "All" or "racing" I suppose, but sat in the lounge nice and warm simply watching and place betting - 

- I almost give up on form lines with the rubbish animals on show - yesterday simply place backed any horse that shortened up significantly from the first show in Racing Post "latest shows" pop up - no win bets no lay bet just all on place - ignored everything else, made decent, though boring, profit on that day. Simply ALL ON on place - 

just shows only the AW trainers know when this lot have eaten their Weetabix and which ones are having a Hissing fit

 Roll on Horse racing  and fingers crossed (though low expectations) for the Tingle Creek at Sandown Saturday 

 Loads of selections posted for the December naps table for Today at Wolverhampton Vfb - Gord bless em all - if they rush ahead then the deserve to - will wait till the horses get back.

Taking Mazie and Pipper across the fields will be enough hard work for me today - good luck you punting Heroes

 Bob

The current state of the weather

As ever when we have adverse weather, it plays havoc with the racing. I'm not a big all weather fan, although I must admit the quality has improved in recent years. The going for the only meeting, Wolverhampton, is slow today, and from what I observe, some horses, even proven all weather horses, just don't like it slow, so beware all and a profitable days racing to you all.

Naps Table

Thanks for the congrats. I note that guys on this forum have won 6 of the last 10. A co-incidence? I think not

Martin Wins-- Congratulations - heres Mazie in full flight Bobt

VFB Naps Table Winner Martin November 2010

Winner  November 2010
Tipster	Wins	Runs	Strike	LSP	POE
Martyn	8	20	40%	+7.90	+39%
diamondperth	1	1	100%	+4.00	+400%
JohnC	6	27	22%	+2.22	+8%
JohnB	5	11	45%	+0.61	+5%