The Cheltenham Gold Cup 18th march 2011

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-3 Dont forget that Long run broke the trend for the king George 

7yo: 4-2-22

8yo: 3-7-42

9yo: 3-7-35

10yo: 0-3-29

11yo+ 0-1-18

Horses aged 7 to 9 (10-16-99) have won the last 10 runnings.

Horses aged 10+ (0-4-47) have gained no wins and just 4 placed in the last 10 runnings from just under a third of the total runners. this is a key stat Guys a key stat look where the money is for these old stager's

Breeding

Irish Bred: 8-14-92

French Bred: 2-4-37

British Bred: 0-2-18

German Bred: 0-0-2

American Bred: 0-0-1

Irish and French bred horses have dominated, winning the last 10.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 chases that season

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start

9 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 12 chases in their career (Kauto Star winning it a second time was exception)

8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions had won the race before)

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions finished runner-up in the Lexus and King George on their only previous try at 3M+)

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase

9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase that season (exception Imperial Commander beaten a short head in Betfair Chase)

Previous Cheltenham Form

Returning Gold Cup winner (Imperial Commander): 401122 (2-2-6)

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 112

2 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 27

9 of 10 winners ran in a chase at the previous Festival (exception was Best Mate in 2002, there was no 2001 Festival).

9 of 10 winners had previously finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival(Kauto Star who fell when favourite in previous season's Queen Mother was the only exception)

Other Races 

King George winner (Long Run): 4011121F (4-1-7)  6 yr old

Lexus Chase winner (Pandorama): U9F10013 (2-1-8)  8 yr old

AON Chase winner (Noland): 404118 (2-0-6)

Betfair Chase winner (Imperial Commander): 012PF (1-1-5) 10 yrs old

Cotswold Chase winner (Neptune Collonges): 15526 (1-1-5) 10 yr old

JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Kauto Star): 29P01 (1-1-5) 11 yrs old 

Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Diamond Harry): P576182 (1-1-7)

Ryanair Chase winner (Alberta Run): 1 (1-0-1)

Star Chase winner (China Rock): 1 (1-0-1) This one fits a lot of trends today guys a very good 4th in the jewson last year only 8 yrs old and has beaten Sizing Europe without breaking sweat and how good did that one run in the Queen mother on Wednesday ?

Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (China Rock): 1 (1-0-1) (this was where he sluiced home from Sizing Europe!

7 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing P211115

3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 121

10 of 10 winners ran in Lexus or King George (8 of 10 were 1st/2nd)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2

2 of 10 winners ran in the Aon Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 15

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-5-24) has won 3 of the last 4 runnings of this.

Henrietta Knight (3-0-7) trained Best Mate to win the race 3 times in the 2000’s.

Mouse Morris (1-0-2) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-4) are the only other 2 trainers with entrants to have won this since 2000.

Noel Meade (0-2-3), Willie Mullins (0-2-6) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-6) have each trained 2 placed finishers in the past 10 renewals.

The Pipe Stable (0-0-14), Nicky Henderson (0-0-5) Phillip Hobbs (0-0-4) have each failed to saddle a runner that made the frame in the past 10 runnings from 23 collective runners.

Irish trained runners (2-6-28) won the race 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but have struggled more recently, failing to fill a place in any of the last 4 years (they were not represented in 2009).

Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting but that was then this is now! 

The longest priced winner since 2000 has been 15/2. many will be clinging to the old favourites and price will be backed down tomorrow 

Favourites (5-2-10) have taken 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 4.35.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 7 to 9

·         Irish or French bred

·         Had 6 to 12 career chase start (2 to 5 this season)

·         Second or third season chaser (or previous winner)

·         Finished in the first 2 last time and posted RPR of 162+

·         Won over 3M+

·         Won a grade 1 chase (and won a graded chase this season)

·         Finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival before

·         Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George


Update  Well guys this is a good ground Gold cup - 

         

Thursday going faster than they giving?

 Not a great chelt for me so far! You were right about my nap Martin he just did not fire and nothing - one slight mistake and pulled up Henderson yard having a shock horror Cheltenham.

 Ground faster than good down the back straight on the chase course - with some rain threatens for tomorrow.

will have some time to study in the morning but its a bit of a catch all and expecting a big price winner in the Gold Cup!  Have Backed my Midnight Chase at long odds ante -  yes its a back to lay but that can happen for a green book in the morning! still have a hankering for this transfer from handicaps

 Bob

 

Thursday Card Cheltenham - 17th March 11

See you have been burning the midnight oil Martin - good lad that you are 
could not get here yesterday but still there to get the bookies beaten hopefully today


1.30 and am fully confident of a big run from Henderson horse Mr Gardener -A runaway winner on his third hurdles start in March 2009, was then not seen again until making all to win a 2m4f novice chase at Huntingdon this January where he jumped like a stag.  Coming out only 22 days Sandown 050211 looked a house of a horse and was impressive against Captain Chris and Medermit   and stepping up in grade  he was always towards the front, if tending to jump slightly right. He was still right there until stumbling on landing at the penultimate fence, from which point he weakened. That was a creditable effort just over three weeks after his reappearance, and he looks sure to win good races if keeping sound. Henderson said he wanted to target this race with him in any case but thought he would need another run after Sandown which he hasn't had. There was no bounce factor at Sandown and  having a 40 dsr has a major chance - he does lead and fitness on his side under Barry  Geragthy this is his going he will stay. His run put him 5lbs behind Captain Chris who won so well on Tuesday and a clear round will see him home today. The Vfb gives him the same mark as the favourite Wishful Thinking who won a  grade 3 handicap here last time wearing a first time tongue tie which he wears again today both horses are highly progressive  but Mr Gardener has the edge in my book on the drying ground.


 2.05 and my selection here is the irish Rivage D'or who i thought so impressive under this in form jockey at Naas last time  ideal stats for this one in a race thats been targetted  he led home a Dessie Hughes one-two. He travelled well throughout under his 5lbs claimer and forged to the front at the last and stuck to his task well. Cut to 14-1 for the Cheltenham race with Stan James, his trainer described the first two home as good staying horses but this one had a turn of speed as well 


2.40 cannot have a great deal of confidence in this race but have a sneaky bet on Jacobs booting home a winner today and Gavain my well be short of top class but Williams horses have only just got over a setback  his running against Riverside Theatre at Ascot showed a return to form and hes better this way round - this is not a great Ryanair in my book  and Alberta Run last years winner was also second in the Ascot race the previous run 


 3.20 and a race to savour - is Big Bucks vulnerable ? is it a two horse Race with Grands Cru ? on the book it seems to be and they both have plenty of reasons for backing them - 6 and 7yr old have dominated the last 10 year stats previous course win seems an absolute must and am turning my attention to an each way shot in Henderson's  Zaynar he is a very brave animal and always considered to be classy enough to win a champion race he has never run this far but another year on its back and Delami has bred some stayer he is the betfair place market bet for me and an in running bet.


4.00 a good handicap but a puzzle - would say take a look at Edgbrier this has been his target for some time and should give a good account just 4lb higher than when game course winner in October.for a big run in a race that doe throw up some massive priced winners he ran such a good race at sandown last time over an inadequate 2miles staying on really well from the last that i have to have this one win and place  


 best of luck on your selections - give me a comment on mine ? cheers


 Bob

One for the future

I have an Irish horse that should be noted : I'm For Converting not been seen out since 150111

Cheltenham - Thursday

Yesterday belonged to the Irish, it's kick -ass time today!!

1.30 Wishfull Thinking
2.05 Knockara Beau
2.40 Somersby
3.20 Big Bucks
4.00 Tatenan
4.40 Billie Magern
5.15 No Bet

Cheltenham - Wednesday (Ladies Day)

Hi all

I suffered from placeitis (Hurricane Fly apart) and todays racing is much more difficult. Bearing that in mind, I waded through the form all night and have come up with the following:

1.30 - the 4m Amateur Riders Hcap Chase - There are 2 in this that intesrest me Chicago Grey who acts on any ground, and PearlySteps who will go well but needs some rain.

2.05 Neptune Novices - Again, tyhere are 2 that caught my eye Oscars Well who needs some rain, and Minella Class who has performed well and consistently and gets the nod

2.40 Royal Sun Alliance - cracking 3 mile Chase - my bet of the day runs in this and it's Time for Rupert who if running anywhere near form will take all the beating as I believe this is a future Gold Cup winner.

and machine gun style tipping:

3.20 Master Minded
4.00 Ballyhaunis
4.40 Tenor Nirvanais
5.15 Knight Pass - good bet!!

the rest of Cheltenahm

I'll just give you these machine-gun style:

3.20 Hurricane Fly
4.00 Garde Champetre
4.40 No Bet
5.15 Tullamore Dew

Hi Guys - cheltenham yippee Tuesday thoughts 15th March

The blog is well over due for a posting and I am in fighting fit mood to make some cash for the day - things are a bit more controlled and the family feeling a lil more confident and relaxed - thank you for all the well wishes we have received - things are not resolved yet but confidence is rising.
 So racing that's what your here for - Why Is Cue Card such a big price ?- on the form book he cannot be beaten and will take some  more of the bookies cash today - plenty of reasons to have a look and bet with Paddy Power who will refund any other animal bets if when Cue Card wins so its a no lose situation with your thinking caps on - a last-time-out winner has been the way to go as 12 of the last 14 winners had won on the previous start. poor old Dougie Costello will miss his ride on Recession Proof who to my mind is the complete animal its win in the Tote Gold trophy was just sublime. -  Money Back with a win on Cue card - thats fruit and Nuts to me 
 2.05 the Arkle wooooweee given that just one of the last 19 winners started at any bigger than 11/1, the Arkle hasn’t been a good race for favourites, far from it in fact, as just two have won during that period.  Realt Duhb won the Irish Arkle this year and is my main fancy at the moment  but have a hankering for Captain Chris  who takes on Medermit again and today think he can beat him - silly mistakes cost him at Sandown last time when they met. Medrmit has a few quirks and will need some real handling - the way the Captain got after him up the Sandown hill makes me think he can turn it around on the run in today. the jokers in the pack must be the top rated hurdler Rock Noir under McCoy and the blinkerd first time Pipe horse Dan Breene who can really jump a fence both a worthy of a place bet 
 2.40 is not a betting race for me but have some interest in Caroles legacy as an each way prospect as is Rive De Sivola - but this race is  really set up for a gamble in my opinion  and more will be known nerer the off 
3.20 what Can I say - am mad?  but am  laying Hurricane Fly - breeding does not have good omens for this animal its sire Montjeu has a horrible no wins stat for cheltenham - my money is all for Pedlers Cross who is all the blues for me today will win in my opinion and cannot be opposed.


 You can play the cross country at 4.00 but all it is is a fun race  Poker De Sivola for a place bet is all that I can untangle - there just is no angle that will make me confdent on any of these
 which leads me to my longshot fancy in the 4.40 - Banjaxed Girl for twiston bugger these are the notes from last year and her recent running confirms to me the target has always been this race "a former winning pointer she would have to take a high rank in this division if sent chasing next season, but it wouldn´t be that surprising to see her aimed at the David Nicholson Hurdle back here at the Festival next year, as the best of her is possibly still to be seen."


 !!!! NOTE FROM BENS BLOG Only ONE failed to complete the course on their chase debut when your look at the Arkle later

Good luck all enjoy the day


 Bob

The races

1.30 Cheltenham - Supreme Novices ... Cue Card if running to form should take this, which gives us an excellent opportunity to back another in the race if we can take advantage of the money back guarantee if Cue Card wins. I like Zaidpour available at around 14s. Shown winning form only on the soft but has a good chance

2.05 Cheltenham - Arkle Trophy. A great renewal with a few holding good claims. Medermit is all the rage, but I like the form of Finians Rainbow who goes in this nice ground.

2.40 Cheltenham - Stewart Family Spinal Hcap Chase - I like the chances of Great Endeavour who is available at around 7's

THE Festival !

Hi all,

I would like to hear from Bob, just to know all is okay. The Cheltenham festival commences today - it's the highlight of my gambling, and there look to be some outstanding bets today. I'll select one from each race later - just as Bob and I usually do :)

Robert

Hi all

It's been an age since Bob contributed to his own blog and I can only speculate that illness in the family is the reason. If this is so, I would like to wish Bob and his family all the best and hope to read his contributions really soon and that whtever is causing him strife will disipate soon.

Nice back/Lay

I just had a lovely Back to Lay bet on Ippi Tomba 2.10 Lingfield ... backed at 140 and layed in running at ......27 - hedged for a tidy sum whoever won! I feel as if I am back lol

Early thoughts for the day....

The markets won't settle for a while, but I've been through the races and here are my first thoughts.....

BACK bets:

2.20 Leop Made In Taipan
3.10 Font Quel Bruere
3.45 Font Karabak
3.55 Leop Prince Erik

LAY Bets:

3.45 Font Celestial Halo

No posts for a while! I hope everyone is okay!

Cheltenham in a couple of weeks and plenty of trials run/being run. Amazingly, no all weather today! However, we have national hunt racing on awfull ground, at Leopardstown, Fontwell and Towcester. I haven't yet found anything worth noting, although there could be a good lay in Ireland. Back just before racing people.......

Haydock national trial 3.20

When they call the ground heavy at Haydock they mean it  3m4f and a low weight seems the order of the day.Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 7 to 9

·         Officially rated 135 to 146

·         Won or placed last time out

·         Posted highest RPR at a left-handed track in past 2 outings

·         Won over 2M 7F or further

·         Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

·         First 2 in Scottish, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National

·         Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+

·         Priced between 7/1 and 18/1

The ground distorts everything that's for sure but animals who are in good form off a low weight and can stay longer than the crowds in Cairo is what your looking for 

have shortlisted the following 

• Westend Rocker (will love the ground)
• Major Malarky will def stay on his run  at Chepstow
• King Fontain (Course win was very good indeed and just romped clear)
• Sarde - Am very keen on this light weight improving animal - however there are reports that it bruised a foot and missed a week preparation - how it has affected him will be shown in the market. its win at Newbury where it flew the fences over 3m2f under an amateur was brilliant - of a low weight - has only run on heavy twice  but has had feet problems and these seem to be well cured - will do for me 
•  Good luck all

Bobt

TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Well here it is at last and a few non entries but still a race to savour - have given the stats already but with the ground going soft and g/sft in places with fog still expected to linger  attention turns to the good novice Recession Proof who is ridden by Dougie Costello - will love the ground and stays well beyond this distance - off a handy 10-08 this horse does have an improving profile that interests me and can go on any ground - it win at Lingfield just for the run on the AW flat  after its impressive win over 2m3f on heavy ground says this one is at the top of his form.  yep its a big step up in grade but does not have a lot to prove on its profile so far - you will need to stay and handle the ground and this one comes to the top of the picks along with the previous mentioned Rebel Dancer - ridden by that decent claimer Murphy who takes a handy 3lbs (Dougie Costello rode it here last time!) 
these two will do for me in straight win bets - good luck all its a fascinating race
BobT 

TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

THE Totesport Trophy card has been rescheduled for Friday pending satisfactory results from the two post mortems of the horses that died in the paddock before the first race on Saturday.

The rescheduled card will feature the AON and Game Spirit Chases along with the Totesport Trophy, although all races will be run with less prize-money than on the original fixture.

Newbury managing director Stephen Higgins said: "It has been a difficult week so far for all involved with Saturday's traumatic events. 

"Having received confirmation from Southern Electric Power Distribution that the paddock site is safe for both horses and people, we are confident that racing should resume.

"We have been in talks with the BHA and our sponsors the Tote and AON, with regard to rescheduling the remaining races from Saturday's card and it is our intention for them to take place on Friday, 18 February."

 Yippeeee

how deep was that cable?

Newbury was just awful and nothing to say other than it was ridiculous and unforgivable - the explanation of an electric cable  damaged whilst aerating the ground is just unacceptable - aerating? that's at least a fork tyne deep - no cable should have such insufficient cover and should have been in an armour proof sheathing or in the past a duct of old fashioned clay pipe ---
there are special requirements for wiring around and in stables - are they telling us there is no safety precautions on a track?
BobT

 

TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Hi All many thanks for all the kind words since i last logged onto the Blog - Things have been very much more important than racing and its really good to have an improving situation over the last week 
here for your interest is the trends for the big race today on g/osft ground it should be a cracker 
TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) 3.35 Newbury 

The Totesport Trophy Hurdle is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 12th February. The race has had to be abandoned in 2 of the last 5 years through frost!

Trends for the past 10 running’s (1999-2010):

winner

age

wgt

sp

trainer

jockey

get me out of here

6

10-6

6/1

jonjo o'neill

a p mccoy

wingman

6

10-0

14/1

gary moore

jamie moore

heathcote

5

10-6

50/1

gary moore

jamie moore

essex

5

11-6

4/1f

m j p o'brien

barry geraghty

geos

9

10-9

16/1

nicky henderson

marcus foley

spirit leader

7

10-0

14/1

mrs john harrington

n williamson

copeland

7

11-7

13/2

m c pipe

a p mccoy

landing light

6

10-2

4/1f

nicky henderson

mick fitzgerald

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just under 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses allotted 11-0 or more: 4-7-47

Horses allotted 10-13 or less: 6-23-168

Not much to go on as far weights go though horses carrying 11 stone or more have won 4 of the last 10 from less than 22% of total runners.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 145 or more: 1-5-31

Horses rated 131 to 144: 7-19-138

Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-6-46

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run no more than 6 times since August

10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)

9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better handicap hurdle last time(exception Get Me Out Of Here came into the race unbeaten)

9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles

9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)

8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Get Me Out Of Here): P00 (0-0-3)

 Interesting fact is that he had won at newbury on its last run before the Tote (over 2miles in a race for horses in their second season) This year´s line-up featured several with the potential to make their mark in decent handicaps later in the season, and the time was just over 2secs quicker than the earlier Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
This year the most promising run in the same race was Rebel Dancer did well on faster surfaces in the late summer, and had gone up 7lb after falling when giving the progressive Nearby a race at Bangor. Returning from a seven-week break, he was held up before staying on well to chase home the winner, although never looking as if he would get past TOCCA FERRO (one handsome beast) This was a good effort from 5lb out of the handicap, this one fits the profile well

MCR Handicap Hurdle winner (Final Approach): 071 (1-0-3)

This is a horse that can upset the English on its win in the MCR - FINAL APPROACH looked like a bridle horse on more than one occasion. That´s something he couldn´t be accused of now as he ran out a very easy winner of this contest after finding plenty off the bridle. Held up just off the pace, he did get a nice run up the inside when it counted but he didn´t come off the bridle to get to the front early in the straight and quickened up when asked. This was a smart performance by a horse definitely ahead of the handicapper and how much more he can improve is something that will become evident, but he looks a horse from whom there could be plenty more to come. Irish trained runners (2-2-27) have provided 2 of the last 10 winners from less than 13% of the runners.

Price

6 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 8/1 but 4 of the last 6 winners went off at 14/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner.

Favourites (2-3-11) have won 2 of the last 10 & show a level return to a unit stake.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 5 to 7

Finished in the first 3 last time out in a class 2 or better hurdle

First or second season hurdler

Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles

Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season

Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it

Run in the MCR or Stellar Football Handicap Hurdle this season

Trained by N Henderson, P Hobbs or G Moore

 good luck all

 BobT