TODAYS NAP TOWCESTER

VERLAKA  have been waiting for this animal to get its distance and today it has at Towcester in the 6. o'clock.
 Have taken the price and waiting for more in running if it does as I expect and stays midfield. She is sired by Old Vic  and has decent ground credentials from its dam side Via Bob Back (her sire.)
was taken with her bumper run at Hereford behind Semi Colon and even more impressed with her run over 2miles on good ground behind my analyser horse There and Then.
that day she was still green but at the end of the race she picked up the bit and chased after the winner who is a strapping gelding with a beautiful jumping action. - but it was the way she finished that impressed me - Settled towards rear, headway 5th, ridden 2 out, 3rd and keeping on same pace when crossed by veering rival before last, went 2nd flat but not reach winner beating some half decent geldings in the bargain.


Today she only has her own sex to beat and to their credit some decent summer animals will be coming out of this race but I make her 6 pound clear of her rivals today  wish she did not have this far to travel but her staying pedigree says that one day she will get this distance hope its today - she will definitely shorten from the 14s I took  this morning - but with henderson and Mccoy on
BellaBoosh  and King and Thornton with Lucky Mix she will not shorten up below 9s IMO


result 1 The Strawberry One 11/4 

2 Sapphire Rouge 9/2 
3 Varkala 15/2  she looked the real deal all the way and was backed right in but the money came for the winner and she was pushed right out again opened 9/2 too far too fast the ground no doubt she still looked a bit green but a mare to follow over slightly shorter but she will get this distance this summer 

NR: Lucky Mix, Midnight Macarena    


 for a decent each way bet am taking in the 3.30 at Wolverhampton and siding with Kings Maiden who has been off the track for 388 days - won this 1m5f at the track 2009 and has been hurdling last run shes about right in the handicap and 16/1 or bigger  I like older horses who have a layoff before tackling distance races and always look for them in the Vfb and especially a Kings Theatre mare at that
 Result ------Bugger the fate of all place animals finished 4th -------- won by a 9yr old  such is racing 


 Good  luck today 


 Bob  

Whats happened to my mates? Naps table

Looks a good day to be in the naps table but dont seem to be getting any feedback from you guys.
 Am staying with the jumps and Knight in Purple to get its hat trick under Carberry today in the 3.40 at Haydock.
It has achieved more than the formidable Henderson/McCoy animal Remember Now who is priced up at 11/2 - was considered to be going to the Punchestown festival but his last win they finished in a bit of a heap certainly its progressive but not inspiring and has a fair bit to find today 


Cannot believe Knight In Purple is knocking around the 16/1 on betfair after its brilliant win here last time 2miles galloping away from Drill Sergeant  over the last 2 - just hands and heels till the last - then quickened up like a bloody good thing - it achieved a mark around 128 without breaking sweat and gets a mark of 129 today and in form of his life can achieve that under ideal conditions 
 this is my best bet today and have lumped on


as usual with well backed naps it got second for me - bugger went along the winner jumped to the front at just the right time but the winner swept passed him  
1 Eradicate 15/2 
2 Knight In Purple 12/1
3 Hunterview 25/1
4 Rio Gael 33/1 

Victoria Cup Ascot 070511

well this is a fun race for a napster to contemplate ! 
 lests stat off with the fact that they have reversed the draw and thats more confusing than you think - high numbers had the call in the last ten years - if you could get a 4/5 yr old drawn above 20 you were on the call - this year this means the low numbers have the call on percentage terms this year.
trends are not going to help a great deal as the changes in the stalls are for the first time and the race was run twice at lingfield on the last ten years - animals still run well charging up the centre of the track for the first 5flngs and the late ground up the stands side  
 in a 29 runner field  you have to seriously look at the first 10 boxes.
7 of 10 winners carried 8-7 to 8-13 and they represented just 34% of the total runners.
6 of the last 7 winners have been officially rated between 90 and 99.

10 of 10 winners had run no more than twice that year

9 of 10 winners won over 7F

8 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days

8 of 10 winners won a race worth 9K+(incl AW)

7 of 10 winners won at class 3 or higher

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps

 3 winning favourites and 6 winners priced 14/1 or bigger.

Favourites (3-4-12) have gained 3 wins in the past ten years, giving a level stakes profit of 2.75.

I'm going each way on a Dandy Nichols horse Nasri - drawn 4 who can be a blazing front runner  won well last time at the easier track muss over 7flngs in a 7k race good ground - (am hoping the rain will still come to give the ease it will be better for) - does not need to front run and based on its run at newmarket where it was held up and finished with a late charge it has some talent. Ran to a mark of 100 that day and has a decent lil 3lbs claimer and gets in off 97 today with that valuable 3lbs just to help get that down to 94. currently 26/1 betfair and 16/1 + with the bookies

Good luck today guys

Bob

 A really splendid result but a win would have been better  - All places filled by low drawn animals and Nasir put up a smashing effort to get placed at a big price  But Hawkeyethenoo is something special the way it won 
1 Hawkeyethenoo 15/2 
2 Manassas 25/1
3 Nasri 20/1
4 Brae Hill 9/1 

Rabobank Champion Hurdle. 6th May 2011

The big race on Punchestown’s Ladies Day, Friday 6th May, is the grade 1 Rabobank Champion Hurdle. This race has been won by some of the best Irish NH horses in the past 15 years with the likes of Istabraq, Moscow Flyer, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca and Hurricane Fly (last year) all tasting success in it. This year’s renewal could see the first meeting between last year’s Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winner, Binocular, and this year’s champion, Hurricane Fly.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

Horse aged 5 to 7: 9-8-53.

Horses aged 8+: 1-5-20 

Gender

Mares (0-1-5) have yet to win this race and the exceptional Quevega in 2009 became the first female to make the frame from 5 runners in the past decade.

Breeding 

No strong trends on breeding.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start

10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 hurdles starts (6 last time out)

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days

8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 hurdles races that season

7 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 11 times over hurdles

9 of 10 winners contested a novice hurdle the previous season or that season

9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle

9 of 10 winners were course winners Punchestown Festival Form

8 of 10 winners had previously won at the Punchestown Festival(the 2 exceptions had finished 3rd in the Champion Hurdle & 6th in grade 1 Bumper)

7 of 10 winners (last 3) had won a juvenile or novice hurdle at the Festival (1 exception was brought down 2 out when looking a likely winner of a novice hurdle, other 2 exceptions had not contested a novice hurdle at the Festival)

Defending Champion Hurdler (Hurricane Fly): 72222 (0-4-5)

2M Champ Nov Hurdle winner (Blackstairmountain): 31681 (2-0-5)

Other races

Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 122 (1-2-3)

Leopardstown Dec Festival Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 1322 (1-1-4)

Previous year's Supreme Novices winner (Menorah): 13 (1-0-2)

Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): F33232 (0-2-6)

Christmas hurdle winner (Binocular): 62 (0-1-2)

5 of 10 winners ran in the December Festival Hurdle, finishing 17243

4 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, finishing 1323

3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 4F1

3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing F22

3 of 10 winners ran in the Red Mills Hurdle, finishing 211

3 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana Hurdle, finishing 153

Trainers

Willie Mullins (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 3 thirds from 7 runners since 2001.

Nicky Henderson (1-1-4) has saddled Punjabi to win the race in 2008 and finish runner-up in 2009.

British trained runners (2-2-10) have a fair record, winning 2 of the last 10 and with 4 of their 10 runners making the frame. Both British-trained winners had won the grade 1 4yo hurdle at the previous year’s Festival.

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter

9 of the last 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting however no clear favourite has won this race in the past 10 years, with Solwhit winning as joint favourite in 2009 being the only successful market leader.

Favourites (1-6-11) have taken just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 8.50.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 5 to 7

·         Finished in the first 3 last time out in past 50 days

·         Run 3 to 6 times over hurdles this season

·         Contested a novice hurdle this season or last season

·         Won a grade 1 hurdle

·         Previous Festival winning form is crucial

·         Previously won a novice or juvenile hurdle at the Festival

·         Finished in first 3 in Red Mills Trial and/or Champion Hurdle

·         Ran in the December Festival Hurdle

·         Trained by Willie Mullins         

 Priced 6/1 or below (favourite has a poor record)

Menorah is only having its second run of the season and was behind Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham both he and Binocular finished behind Thousand Stars His freshness must have a real positive to beat hurricane today and Hobbs has an uncanny knack of getting horses to Punchestown

This  is a funny time of year when it comes to predicting the results of the major jumps races, .Dunquib was all the rage last year  HURRICANE FLY was viewed by many as the one to beat, and that proved to be the case, but only aftera tremendous battle with Solwhit. -  Hurricane Fly has that brilliance about him that relates to the all-time greats

View from the course

Punchestown manager Richie Galway said: "It did rain last night and we got about 2mm. The chase course is now yielding and we're watering the hurdles course with a view to good ground. 

Good luck today Guys Nursey Pam Birthday means am giving it a miss as we off to the coast and the Courtyard restaurant at Deal for a slap up meal and a walk along the beach before a joint party with Dawn - life is all balloons and brandy for the Taylor's  

5.30 Punchestown 050511

world hdle and am very happy to Dutch Rigour Back Bob and  Voler la Vedette

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 8 or younger

·         Mares do well

·         Finished in the first 3 last time out in the past 50 days

·         A second or third season hurdler

·         Won a grade 1

·         Won over 3M+ (or trying 3M+ for first time)

·         Previously won or placed at Punchestown Festival

·         Course winner (or having first run here)

·         Ran at the Cheltenham Festival or at Aintree last time out

·         Avoid horses that finished in the first 3 in the World Hurdle

·         Trained by Jonjo O’Neill or by Willie Mullins

·         Priced 6/1 or below (favourites do well)

 I think the Mullins /walsh combo will take some beating that's for sure and Quevega will take some pegging back but my lil mare Voler la Vedette has all the stats and as game as a pebble - first time at 3miles but her win over 2m5f on heavy ground should get here home here on this faster ground - she had a hard race last time only 10 days ago but has won with a quick turnaround before -Rigour Back Bob truly stays 3miles and won 3miles here last year at the Punchestown festival ran a decent race in the world hurdle at Cheltenham 

 Good luck

 Bob

Chester cup Wednesday 040511

Just a quick word on the cup which is a very good race for trends

last year Mamlook ran a cracker to win this but some interesting trends that you should consider

9 of 10 winners won over 2M+ (exception had won over 1M 6F, had only 1 run over 2M+)

7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (2 of 3 exceptions placed in class 2 and other had yet to race above class 3)

7 of 10 winners ran won a race worth 10K+ (3 exceptions all placed in a race worth 10K+)

6 of 10 winners had their last run in April

7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) were having their first flat start of the season (2 of 3 exceptions ran at  Fred Darling Newbury meeting)

6 of 10 winners had won or placed at Chester (3 of 4 exceptions having first course start)

Horses carrying 8-9 or more: 8-15-78

Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 2-15-91

9 of 10 winners were aged 4 to 6

Horses aged 7+ have managed just 1 win and 8 places from 47 runners in the past 10 years. There has been no winner aged above 7 in last 20 years.

Chester’s draw bias does not have quite the same effect as it does in the sprints.

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 to 6

·         Carrying 8-9+

·         Officially rated 90 to 103

·         Won over 2M+

·         Won a class 2 or higher

·         Having first flat start this year

·         Ran over hurdles at Aintree last time

·         Previous won or placed at Chester (or having 1st course start)

·         Previously finished in first 6 in a Chester Cup

My selection this race fits all the trends and ridden by Jimmy Fortune again having got it into 5th last year and trained by Dunlop then is trained by Twiston Davis  today -

That horse is Swingkeel  currently 43/1 betfair  was hampered early last year and had to make ground round horses but didn´t take advantage of his good draw, ending up well back after finding trouble soon after the start. He found further trouble when trying to stay on and should have finished closer.

-

Result - fantastic run from the winner and martins nap Tastahill ran a very gallant race, as for my selection he just never got into it from that draw  but as the third came from next door in 16 there was no excuses that I saw.

1 Overturn 11/2 (draw 1) ( last run in hdles)
2 Tastahil 8/1 (drawn 3
3 Mystery Star 50/1 (drawn 16)
4 Mount Athos 9/1( drawn 19)

Good luck today

 Bob

what a way to make a living bank holiday 020511

Hi Guys - just to say its not all milk chocolate and nuts - look at the way this guy has to make a living 
 and he had to land on a half inflated bag before running off to get paid -- bank holiday ? and you thought it tuff to pick a winner or two.


Barbecue for the Taylor household today and if it gets warm around the cooker  I wont be complaining. My dawgs are just laid on the patio - took them out at 5am down to the beach - saw two deer plenty of marsh warblers and it was just so good to be alive - not another human being for miles- bet its starting to swarm down there now
 Tip from the lads is that they expect a big big run from Harry Luck in the 3.55 at Windsor today 
 is in his first h/cap and upped to its trip-


Enjoy the bank holiday

 Bob

1 Harry Luck 100/30 
 
HARRY LUCK made the frame in each of his three runs as a juvenile, which included his first two outings here, and he gamely opened his account on this seasonal return. He took time to pick up, perhaps feeling the quick ground somewhat, but the longer trip was more up his street. In good hands, he is said by his trainer to have matured now and is expected to rate a bit higher this year. 

1000 gns 1 may 2011

American bred horses have won 3 of the last 10 from approximately 17.4% of the total runners.

10 of 10 winners were born before May7 of 10 winners won last time out

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice as a 2yo

10 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 8F 

9 of 10 winners were by a sire who finished in first 2 in 6F-8F group 1

9 of 10 winners won or placed first time out as a 2yo (exception was unplaced in a group 3 on debut as a 2yo)

8 of 10 winners had won at group level (1 exception was 2nd in a group 3, other had yet to run in a group race)

6 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket (3 of 4 exceptions had yet to run there)

6 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (other 4 had run just once that season)

Rockfel Stakes winner (Cape Dollar): 00211006 (2-1-8)

Cheveley Park Stakes winner (Hooray): 605171 (2-0-6)

Prix Marcel Boussac winner (Misty For Me): 0201 (1-1-4)

Queen Mary Stakes winner (Maqaasid): 10 (1-0-2)

Lowther Stakes winner (Hooray): 51605 (1-0-5)

Cherry Hinton winner (Memory): 00100 (1-0-5)

French-trained runners (2-2-5) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 5 runners in the past decade.

Irish trained runners (2-5-29) have won 2 of the last 10 from 17.3% of the total runners.

Trainers who have won it recently with entries this year are , Saeed Bin Suroor (1-2-14), , Barry Hills (1-1-9), Michael Stoute (1-1-9), Aidan O’Brien (1-1-16) and Criquette Head-Maarek (1-0-2), who won the race last year.

Trainers who have not done so well in the race recently include Richard Hannon (0-1-9), Clive Brittain (0-0-7), John Gosden (0-0-7) and Mick Channon (0-0-13).

Price

No strong trends on prices but favourites have done well recently.

Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of the last 4 and show a level stakes profit of 1.50 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         By a sire that finished in first 2 in a group 1 over 6F to 8F

·         Born before 01/05/2008

·         Run at least twice as 2yo & won/placed on racecourse debut

·         Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)

·         Won last time out

·         Had 0 or 1 run this season

·         Won a group race

·         Course winner (or having first run at the track)

·         Won over 6F to 8F

·         Won Marcel Boussac, Rockfel or Cheveley Park Stakes as 2yo

·         Won Prix Impudence or Leopardstown 1000G Trial as a 3yo

·         Trained in France

MISTY FOR ME was forced to skip the Fillies´ Mile as a result of a bruised foot, Won Marcel Boussac, in horrible ground - this was more than adequate compensation. She made the running at the Curragh, but was content to track the leader over this longer trip. Murtagh got stuck in as soon as they turned into the straight, though, keen to make use of her stamina, and she found more when tackled by Helleborine. She has admirable fighting qualities and looks the type that will improve for racing, Will Do for me today

 Good luck with your fancy guys 

 Bob 


.Result 
1 Blue Bunting 16/1 
2 Together 33/1 3 Maqaasid 22/1  Blue Bunting and the american bred  has held up the stats!


 Blue Bunting had progressed from maiden company to win at Listed race over C&D last autumn, but was up in grade and having her first try on fast ground. Held up out of the wind early, she made her effort nearest the stands´ rail and, as her stamina kicked in up the hill, she was able to reel in the leaders and get up near the line. She is regarded as an Oaks filly and that will be her next port of call in an attempt to emulate the same owner Kazzia, who did the double in 2002. She was top priced at 9/2 for the Epsom Classic following this. 


Barefoot Lady was a very useful juvenile but stepped up on that form when winning the Nell Gwyn over 7f here. Up again in trip and grade she ran well, chasing the leaders throughout and,despite being pushed along some way out, kept on when others cried enough.