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Do we want to be backing a first time faller for festival success?

Written on November 2, 2011 by Ben Aitken in blog

MENORAH – Unseated rider 2 out on Chase debut

SAM WINNER – Fell at the last on Chase debut

Not the greatest chasing debuts in recent history from 2 horses that are expected to get pretty near the top of the chasing tree.

Despite making a complete hash of the second last fence MENORAH was shortened in places by a number of firms for the Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March – the Hobbs horse is now a general 10-1 although he is as low as 8-1 with Stan James.

However, if we take a look back at the chase debuts of the Arkle top 3 finishers over the past 10 seasons one thing is glaringly obvious; you need to stay on your feet on chasing debut if you are to have any pretentions of having a say in the finish of the Grade 1 Novice Chase.

In fact the figures tell you its a massive advantage to have WON on your chasing debut.

Take a look at the last 10 Arkle top 3 finishers and how they fared on their Chasing debuts -

2011

Captain Chris – 2nd on Chasing Debut

Finians Ranbow – 1st

Realt Dubh – 1st

2010

Sizing Europe – 1st

Somersby – 1st

Osana – 1st

2009

Forpadytheplasterer – 1st

Kalahari King – 1st

Planet Of Sound – 4th

2008

Tidal Bay – 1st

Kruguyrova – 1st

Noland – 1st

2007

My Way De Solzen – 1st (PU on only chase start in France as a 4yo before moving to A King)

Fair Along – 1st

Jack The Giant – 1st

2006

Voy Por Ustedes – 1st

Monets Garden – 1st

Foreman – 2nd

2005

Contraband – 2nd

Ashley Brook – 1st

River City – 1st

2004

Well Chief – 1st

Kicking King – 5th

Le Duc – 1st

2003

Azertyuiop – 1st

Impek – 1st

Isio – 1st

2002

Moscow Flyer – FELL

Seebald – 1st

Armaturk – 1st

So from the last 30 Arkle Chase top 3 finishers…..

23 WON on their Chase debut

27 finished in the top 2 on their Chase debut

Only ONE failed to complete the course on their chase debut….and that was the mighty MOSCOW FLYER!

The figures don’t look great for either MENORAH or SAM WINNER to go on and achieve Arkle Chase success at Cheltenham in March.

Obviously racing is not always as cut and dry as this but failing to complete on chasing debut is far from ideal and I would be wanting to see a clear round from both yesterdays casualties before even entertaining backing them for festival glory.

Is a clear round on debut the key to Arkle success?

The figures point firmly towards YES.

Jumping is,after all, the name of the game…….

Ben (NTF)

Sires - Is the information valuable ?

MASTER OVERSEER made just about all the running and fought off the runner-up in game fashion. Better known as a staying chaser and currently rated 7lb lower over hurdles, he was restricted to just one outing last term when runner-up in the Sussex National at Plumpton in January, a race he had won in 2010. While he may not be the easiest to train, he is remarkably tough when in action and he could be the type for something like the Midlands Grand National later in the season.


this animal is bred from Old Vic  and adds to that sires tally for slogging animals - my notes ---- won the plumpton national form 211 030110 2nd fav 3m5f soft heavy carried 11-02 dsr 31  1st 9.Master Overseer (IRE) 5.82 9/2 
2nd 10.Tarquinius (FR) 4.46 10/3F 3rd 13.Shaka's Pearl 9.27 8/1 


 favouite for the plumpton national 020111 and finished second to minella boys he tried to lead all the way and was the horse to take out of the race no doubt about it Master Overseer hadn´t been seen since rallying to win this event 12 months earlier, but he was produced in peak form in a repeat bid and went very close to doing so off a 6lb higher mark. Hopefully, he can build on this.


needs a layoff and won so well in soft/heavy ground at chepstow 021111MASTER OVERSEER made just about all the running and fought off the runner-up in game fashion. Better known as a staying chaser and currently rated 7lb lower over hurdles, he was restricted to just one outing last term when runner-up in the Sussex National at Plumpton in January, a race he had won in 2010. While he may not be the easiest to train, he is remarkably tough when in action and he could be the type for something like the Midlands Grand National later in the season. Get INNNNNNNNN


 I have headed this post as Sires and hope the information I posted this morning is informative - please let me know as it takes some dragging out.


 Cheers


Bob

Dormhouse at 28 BSP in the Warwick 1.05 2m HH4 race G-Firm is a nice chance at big odds today.
In todays race there is the hot fav Shallow Bay 2.6 BSP giving already lots ov Value to other runners. Favourite is trained by D Pipe. D Pipe has another horse in the race Southerness 40 BSP.
It will be interesting to see what pace set up the horse will be. Dormhouse is a course Winner on Heavy Ground a while back ago, which was a race tightly grouped moderate pace and Dormhouse held up close coming just right in the end. Jockey was Mr OJ Murphy like today. Looking at todays contenders, there are lots of Hold up horses in there and if the field arrives close at the last bend Dormhouse could well be in again. Raced LTO after a long break first time in a small field against horses he already beat like Saute and Chickle Mix and tailed off, but was looking fresh and okay the first half of the race. Today line up suits much more and the jockey change is a small pointer. To me these odds of 28 are very attractive today and will play also for the place here. Sire of Dormhouse is Medician which is interesting, as I run at the Moment in the Systemanalyser a system of Held Up Winners under 10/1 and looking inside i just saw for Medician a 3/4 SR.

1st BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM! 28 BSP and 6.2 Place Odds

Easy Win for Dormhouse!

Chepstow 13.05 2m Hcp Hurdles Heavy

I will be opposing as a Lay Kateal here at 4.7 BSP simply for the reason its a Heavy Ground event and Kateal has 558 day off. Has won a Novice Hurdles with 10-07, made poor effort in a Class 5 Hcp Hurdles carrying 11-01 weight and has today a 11-07 on Heavy ground!Has very negative statistical stats against.I see that it runs well after a long break and maybe targeted for this here today as had a win as a lead on G-S in Taunton after a long layoff, but this was a very weak Novice Hurdles and today facing much tougher opposition and the lottery of heavy ground. We will see how the betting market reacts late was punted to small amounts from 12,0 down to 4.6 midday put the big money move still has to come so I see it as clear Lay! As a very small bet I will have as a The Clyda Rover at BSP of 40 and Place odds of 6.8 for 4 places a horse which is 206 days off the track before always held up runs and tailed off or never on terms except of a good 2nd in Ireland before on Heavy Ground. Sire Moonax seems to have a real tendency too Heavy Ground and Sam Thomas is booked today.So I will try my luck with a really small bet on it.

Kateal heavily gambled made all this was for sure a race were i shouldnt get in I saw the danger of Fontrunning on Heavy and I still laid. Lesson learned.

Grand national influences

Positive influences - Last years  Grand National contenders in order of preference by pedigree  stared ***** accordingly 

In Compliance - by Old Vic, dam by Montelimar *****

Don't Push It - by Old Vic, dam by Alleged *****

Vic Venturi - by Old Vic ****

Comply Or Die - by Old Vic ****

Bluesea Cracker - by Buster King, by Busted ****

Niche Market - by Presenting, grandson of Busted, out of Juresse, granddaughter of Alleged ****

The Midnight Club - by Flemensfirth, by Alleged ***

Ballabriggs - by Presenting, grandson of Busted ***

Killyglen - by Presenting, grandson of Busted ***

Tidal Bay - by Flemensfiirth, by Alleged ***

Arbor Supreme - by Supreme Leader, grandson of Busted, Mossborough in fourth generation on dam's side ***

Hello Bud - by Jurado, by Alleged and Mossborough in fifth generation on dam's side ***

Can't Buy Time - by Supreme Leader, grandson of Busted ***

Roll Along - dam by Montelimar, by Alleged **

Character Building - dam by Roselier, Mossborough infifth generation on dam's side**

Santa's Son - dam by Roselier **

Oscar Time - dam by Supreme Leader, grandson of Busted **

Silver By Nature - second dam by Crash Course, by Busted *

Or Noir De Somoza - great-grandsire Misti, sire of Roselier) *

Majestic Concorde - damsire by Alleged, Right Royal in fifth generation on dam's side, but speed-orientated sireline *

Top Ten NH Sires for the analyser

 This is just a start but will put you well above the knowledge base of most punters - there are others that are only just emerging as sires 
STALLION £ TOTAL PRIZE
King's Theatre £507,703
Beneficial £506,188
Presenting £461,751
Accordion £426,365
Anshan £374,729
Old Vic£372,461
Flemensfirth  £340,849
Oscar £313,930
Montjeu £290,972
Definite Article£ 255,796


If you open your analyser go to runner and insert the above names in the sire Field - that way they will appear on your race - this is just a start of course  and you will be able to add such info as necessary - they do need an additional note and other sires - 


for example Old Vic - Grand national type soft going etc -- Slip Anchor - Giants Causway come to mind and you will soon find your own favourites 
for example Presenting Plus for  Ascot Cheltenham
Montjeu - dodgy for Cheltenham


 hope this starts you off of on sire notes


 Bob

Birthday luck?

What a birthday present. I had yesterday Birthday, so I couldnt make notes or watch the results. Checking the Blog today, I see first Fortification won at odds of 29 for me and then Medermit won odds of 5,60 and Cornas placed at odds of 5,50, Inside Dealer placed for Robert. I am really happy especially that Roberts won and mine placed what a nice day for both of us. My place odds of 8 for Fortification didnt get matched and I didnt watch live yesterday, thats the only shame :)
I just found out that the notes window is restricted in words you can type in. Maybe thats something to work out for Mark in the future?
I have problems getting the Betfair prices logged into the FSP tab in the formbook. I settled the betfair time to -1 and emailed mark and he told me Im registered for betfair.Any idea what I have to do to log the bertfair prices properly into the formbook layout?
I will make notes for the next race we analyse together robert, yesterday I had just birthday and not time to concentrate on racing though, alright?
Will start analyse for todays racing now and later hopefully we will disscuss it out like yesterday.
Your rade!

Exeter races and ones to note 011111

1.50 - the grey Grand Vision is a very fluent jumper and will go on to fences no problem Tizzard  horse with Joe up holds the stats well - one to watch is the bridle horse Allerton NON RUNNER who probably needs further than this in time on breeding but has the right Hold up Jockey Timmy Murphy on board - GRAND VISION NEEDS LEFT HANDED BUT THE TWO THAT BEAT IT ARE CLASSY - ALLTHEKINGSHORSES created a nice impression when winning his point back in March and, despite market weakness (possibly in the face of strong support for the runner-up), he managed to hold on as the pair battled all the way up the straight. The way he travelled suggests he´s a horse with a big engine and, whilst connections will no doubt be keen to take it relatively easy with him this season, he should win again and will no doubt he upped in grade at some point. He´s very much a chaser with next season in mind.

Rocky Creek, a brother to the talented but ill-fated Tell Massini, like the winner had impressively won on his pointing debut earlier in the year and the money around for him very much suggested he would make a successful debut. However, he came under pressure before the straight and, whilst picking up well to challenge, always just looked to be second-best. The step up to 3m can only help and he should be winning next time.

Grand Vision, runner-up on each of his three starts (two bumpers and a novice hurdles on his return),travelled well for a long way in front on this step up in trip, but the front two possessed more class, and he couldn´t race on. He should find a similar race and has the makings of a chaser.2.20 watchin race but keep your eyes on two that have a future -- Bubbly Bruce and Mabel Tasman 36S IN THE MARKET  And she almost got there into 4th ONE FOR THE FUTURE
Mabel Tasman shaped nicely on this return from 571 days off, keeping on from the rear past beaten horses. She´ll be of some interest switched to handicaps, with similar comments applying to Bubbly Bruce, who was making his debut for Fergal O´Brien and kept on late.


2.50 we analysed this one below


 3.20 no bet it will be very tactical  and possible for an upset but unlikely. First time chasers in small fields are a nightmare 


3.50 Inside Dealer again for Tizzard - bred from Presenting is a complete right handed animal bred for distance and runs well fresh has had time to get over its fall and a tentative each way selection


 Result and all plaudits to Rade
Few got into what had looked a decent handicap chase, FORTIFICATION leading throughout and galloping on relentlessly to provide Kieran Burke with his first winner at the first attempt since taking over from Pat Rodford.

His last win had been for Nigel Hawke back in 2009, and now 8lb lower, following a string of poor efforts in the past two years, he looked a revitalised horse. The handicapper will have his say now, though.

Inside Dealer, progressive over fences last season, made a satisfactory return grinding it out well to hold second. He had a tough enough race, though, and remains 10lb above his last winning mark.


 4.20 is a nightmare of a handicap and will wait to see how the market and ground goes


 see yuh 


Bob 

Checking the Exeter 3.50 race 3m Hcp Chase I think OH Braga at BSP of 44 is worth a small Each Way and Win Bet. Is a 947 days off the track a long time but has a win after a long absence and could run well. Had a nice form on lower distance and showed signs off distance ability before. His jumping is not the best and today on easier fences will suit. Ran in Newbury over hard fences and I like that the horse races with the pace. Today with quite a few Runners who will support him in doing the pace can if best form land in the places. The horse has good speed figures in te top of patternform aAlso i think its a good race to play such a long shot, as many horses will just not race because of fitness. Hopefully Oh Braga is not one of these :)

2.50 Exter 011111

 Limited handicaps are a bit tricky (and these are the normal conditions ) £60,000 guaranteed For 4yo+ Weights highest weight 11st 10lb Weight raised 6 Minimum weight 10-4 Penalties after October 22nd, a winner of a chase 4lb (no penalty to increase a horse's weight above 11st 10lb) Captain Chris's Handicap Mark 160 Entries 14 pay £ 175 Penalty value 1st £34,170.00 2nd £12,822.00 3rd £6,420.00 4th £3,198.00 5th £1,608.006th £804.00


your analysis is good and deserves success Cornas is my Analyser horse to be followed - my notes are - 
FANTASTIC RUN SANDOWN 200209 BEAT HOME FREE WORLD JUST FAILED NOVICE CHASE 2MILES D JACOB  FOLLOW -- THIS WAS JUST SUPERB

031109 exter soft heavy 215 dsr won it from the last very good run from cornas who was carrying 5lbs less 23 dsr


BEATEN IN the victor chandler 230110 napped it ran well--- outclassed 
190310 cheltenham 5:15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) Grade 3 2m½f, Class 1, £45,608.00 1 Pigeon Island 16/1 2 French Opera 10/1 3 Consigliere 16/1 4 Cornas 16/1 Cornas has been running creditably over fences and looked a big threat when creeping into contention on the run down to three out. However, he was another who could not find the extra required after the last, despite keeping on.


The last ten years stats 

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER
2010	Tchico Polos	6	10-4	3/1	Paul Nicholls
2009	Planet Of Sound	7	10-9	4/1F	Philip Hobbs
2008	Ashley Brook	10	10-4	8/1	Kevin Bishop
2007	Pablo Du Charmil	6	10-12	9/2	David Pipe
2006	Impek	10	11-10	9/1	Henrietta Knight
2005	Monkerhostin	8	10-5	10/1	Philip Hobbs
2004	Azertyuiop	7	11-10	6/5F	Paul Nicholls
2003	Edredon Bleu	11	11-10	7/2	Henrietta Knight
2002	Edredon Bleu	10	11-10	10/1	Henrietta Knight
2001	Best Mate	6	10-12	8/13F	Henrietta Knight

 you can see that really good animals have won this race with the biggest price going off at 10/1  but there is always a gamble in the race and animals come in quite sharply towards the off . NO Nine Year old has won it and they have made up a great deal of the runners in the past

 so the other Analyser horse in this race is Medermit --My Notes - tried to give that good horse mahonia 1olbs  exeter 41108 time will tell how good this one is trying to give that one weight g/sft 2m1f hdle  both well clear 

folkstone soft 181108 paid a compliment to his Exeter conqueror Mahonia and got off the mark for current connections at the second attempt with an easy display. He took control nearing the final flight and did not have to be fully extended to complete the task, shaping like a horse that will stay further as he matures. He has already been allotted an official mark of 125, so it will be interesting to see whether his leading stable elects to keep him to novice races, for which he now gets a double penalty, or try their hands in handicap company.

fantastic beating DEE DEE Williams 20/1 backed into 14/1 191208 really class race at ascot all horses must be noted top Mr 2miles g/sft  lay at the back and swooped easy peasy same weight as the red hot fav 

ANALYSER THIS ONE BIG TIME CHELTENHAM 100309 mid-division, stumbled on bend after 5th, headway next, ridden after 2 out, staying on when not fluent and hampered last, finished strongly yes yes yes too soft chelt 211 dsr came with a wining run SOOPER DOOPER 2M HEAVY 151109 

 050211 sandown impressive again This high-class novice chase has not been won by a future Cheltenham winner since Best Mate scored in 2001, en-route to Arkle success. It looked a strong line-up, although the pace did not appear that fast. MEDERMIT,  beat home Captain Chris . He jumped and travelled pretty well and had the race in safe keeping at the last, although he had to be driven out to hold off the runner-up. His trainer would not be drawn on his Cheltenham target, but the impression is that he only just gets this trip and, of his options at the festival, the Arkle looks the best, as he will be suited by the likely strong gallop there.

so you have to keep your eyes on the going and the stats - I like Medermit for the win  and Cornas for the place and that's where the money is going - 

 Make notes for all runners in this race as it will pay dividends as the season goes on 

 good luck  lets compare notes after the race

 Bob
  Result as always took my two animals in  a reverse forecast - Captain Chris was all wrong at the last and its turn of speed would have carried it through --- but this is horse racing 
1 Medermit 7/2 

2 Cornas 16/1 
3 Oiseau De Nuit 16/1 

7 ran Distances: 1¼l, 2¼l, 6l
TIME 4m 7.40s (fast by 0.60s)

Jockey: Robert Thornton
Trainer: Alan King

toteswingers:1&2:£9.10, 2&3:£15.90, 1&3:£4.80 WIN £3.40 PL £1.50, £5.40
Ex £44.10
CSF £47.93

A good-quality edition of this race, featuring three of last season´s better novices, including the Arkle hero, as well as the Grand Annual winner. Cornas, having his third crack at the race, can probably be used to rate the form around.

The pace was no more than fair and there were four almost in a line taking the last.

It was last season´s Scilly Isles winner MEDERMIT who came out on top, although it highly likely Captain Chris would have won but for blundering badly and Richard Johnson beingunable to stay aboard.

The winner, unable to go the pace when a beaten favourite in last season´s Arkle, had been thrashed by Wishful Thinking at Aintree when last seen, but this test would have been more suitable and, having taken over before the first in the race, he toughed it out well, finding plenty for pressure as his extra stamina came into play. He may have been fortunate, but even if he´d been caught it would still have gone down as a good effort, and he´ll now head to the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon. The Ryanair is the long-term aim.

Arkle winner Captain Chris is expected to need further this season and he looked a bit rusty through the first mile of the race. He appeared beaten three out, but really picked up after the next and looked certain to come through and win with a good jump. He didn´t produce one, though, taking off a stride too soon and barely getting to the other side, eventually dumping Johnson. Whilst most unfortunate for connections, this result is unlikely to havean impact on the remainder of his season (assuming he didn´t harm himself), and, if still heading to the King George, he´ll go there with sound claims with the 3m trip expected to suit.

Cornas, runner-up in 2009 and sixth last year, was second in a Listed Chase at Enghein last month, so fitness wasn´t a problem and he ran above expectations, just not being able to see it out as well as the winner. He´ll remain tricky to place successfully
 BOOOMMMM.

 

Checking the Exeter 2.50 race the way you described which is nicely, I see value in Cornas at BSP of 16. Loves Exeter course, was entered in the highest prize money race from all racers and had a race at Limerick after a break of 173 days when it ran a Speed figure 174 the best in the race today and won well. Jockey Reveley is a newcomer on this horse and I see value in Cornas, as the odds concentrate on the three market leaders, who raced head to head against each other before. Raced LTO in a very similar 6 runner race and came pretty good in the end just a bit too late. Raced there against good animals Tatiano and French Opera both very high rated. Today I see the small field advantage and the nice odds are worth a go. Cornas Win 16.5 BSP Place 5.6 BSP!

More answers - now have to go look at the electrics!

So if you back bridle horses you wait for an inrunning bet then?

Monday, 31 October, 2011 

not unless i can see the race criteria suits it - i play it from its previous run of course but (1) they are better in smaller fields -(2) the pace from the off is fierce and it is not off its feet for the first quarter - it will definitly drift in the market at the back of the field as the no hoper rare off.  if the majority of the animals are within themselves and still have plenty as mine moves up the price will shorten for a profitable lay as the others still have stamina left and his travel brings him to the front but he has to come off the bridle and be driven! 

radelnblueangel said...

Does a bridle horse profit from a slow pace? no that is not a good indicator  as the other animals who will run for driving still have stamina at the end of the race

Monday, 31 October, 2011 

attempt to answer rades Questions from stage 1

 from Rade Post 
Maybe its good if you open up your VFB and see the stats of a good horse at nice odds and then the note pops up that his last Hcp was in truly run race? or its maybe a value too lay a horse which finished 2nd in slow race and even weakened in the end? --- You have to decide what your race type is Rade many factors  give the clue but --- the beginning /end of either code is fraught as horses are  coming to the tracks for the first time under new trainers and one swallow does not mean its summer. Horses no matter what will win or lose early races because even the trainer does not know how race fit an animal is - before you make any sort of bet an animal needs to have statistics in the book. 14 runs are what I consider the best staistics, even though you can see a picture  with less, you cannot be as confident until your notes show a consistent picture.
 lets analyse today's best race  for a snap shot of what I mean.
Be certain you have got the correct going.
look at the best prize money races in the book by hitting the prize button on the first screen.
2.50 Exeter is a 34grand race  grade 2 limited handicap chase 
display the race screen and run to get the current betfair prices
now limited handicaps are not quite as they seem but for this purpose  take a look at the screen i viist first for chasers- reading across  you will see previous form, name, dot that indicates notes, age weight. trainer statistics of wins on track jockey staistic wins on track allowance   current fsp, (0 indicating analsyer notes) Days since last run cdg ground improver etc etc... I use the track Cim for tuffness of track and General course level.


 By hitting the control button  it reveals the numbers behind the stats
by hitting the notes and analyser it reveals what those are as well and you can then highlte those animals if your going to consider them.
Days since run is my next point of call by opening view form in a line from the top menu and hitting control you can see best DSR track going distance DO THIS FOR EACH ANIMAL Regardless of any other criteria 
 leave this screen and hit view Form array button
 this will give you a set screen where you can look at class speed official rating each race course distance going prize class and how many ran 
 you are getting a picture now of what your animals are capable of....
 make your selections at this stage -- check what the weather conditions are and if the going is likely to change 
 easy innit?


 will continue beyond this if you find it helpful