Two bets today from my notes

Today I have two horses popping up and both face really workable marks.

1.15 Catterick 3m2f Begginers Chase Class 5

The first one is River Dor 3.4 BSP is short but thrown into a Class 5 Beginners Chase over 3m1f today and there are again several leaders, that weaken rapidly late and this should be the chance for River Dor this time at short odds, but its facing an easier task on the optimum distance. Would have won LTO when not stumbling unnecessary at the last. The other leaders in the betting all have negatives, I watched the run from Honest John against Sarando in Carlisle and the only positive is for him today the going back toi a downhill runin, which should suit this runner as it has no tank to me, Alexander Road has to prove it can stay the trip, Dove Hill looks a stayer but his best performance in Carlisle it stayed sweetly on Heavy, but had poor Finshers against him. River Dor had a nice finish against several LTO and the winner Air Force One was a good horse.

Edit: River Dor ran a cracking race but found one better in a close finish traded down to 1.60 I think. The good thing is, that the winner was available 7.2 after 3/4 of the race despite looking strongly and was really a two horse race at this point. Credit to River Dor making the pace and racing such a strong race this time out.
River Dor is I think a horse I will follow next time out again, as its a reliable Front Runner with staying abilities and his jumping convinced me today aswell, found really a good horse on that day here to finish a head 2nd. It also reduces the field only to good runners in the end, as it is making always a strong lead and weak stayers have no chance.


Catterick 2.15 Staying 3m6f Class 3 Trophy

I have the feeling that Dermatologiste 9.0 BSP is a really good handicapped horse today at these prices in this marathon. I noted it last time out staying on very strongly against Jaunty Journey in Bangor on Dee and this trip is def one that the horse needs. It is starts today off a mark 106 in this race and the 2nd of LTO Jaunty Journey went on to finish close 3rd Off 119 next time out in a stronger Class 2 event. Dermatologiste had plenty of stamina despite a finsih against a horse that wasnt getting empty on the runin. Is sired by Kay Tara and the Dosage suggest, that its a marathon horse DP = 2-0-12-4-2 (20) DI = 0.67 CD = -0.20

Edit: Dermatologiste ran a very good race to me as expected, made several mistakes that cost, but is capable of making nice moves forward, had the feeling, that jockey Thornton made too many moves too early that cost coupled with the jumping errors quite a bit, but the first two werent that bad either on this day. Still convinced its a good stayer that can win again soon. Cool Mission the 2nd is one I noted to back off this mark and distance as I thought it gained much with is strides is a big bugger and I had the feeling is making good ground, cause of its stride length, has blinker since 2nd LTO and really convinced me to win soon, just found a very strong finsiher that was more agile and made a bad error at the last.

In the 2.05 in Fontwell i liked the way Makethemostofnow and Kings Realm travelled, Twin Bud and Promising Wings are nervous creepers that come from the back and needed in their wins heaps of whip early, but have to say finished strongly being ridden out. MakeThemostofnow doesnt appeal from the price and raced in a Class 5 Maiden so, despite his win looking strong I prefer in this race Kings Realm, when looking fit in the parade currently 7.4 BSP, as I have the feeling is the class act in this race when fit, the reason for this is that it finsihed close up to First in the Queue in FFoslass and this horse is classy on the level on Edgardo Sol, Ubi Ace and so on. The step up will do good and it proved looking easy off a strong pace or fast races and it must have improved a lot with this break, so if gettting fit for today it will be hard to beat, question is fitness and Soft ground.

Edit: Couldnt quite make out if he looks fit in the parade, but didnt look too bad, in the race you could see, that it didnt like the ground or wasnt racing like before then. weakened rapidly from halfway, which is not his style. Next time out could be value and racing much better, if having form like before and handling the ground, optimal good tendency.

todays posts and comments

Nice to have you back Martin - hope the treatment is doing the business and you will be returned to the rudest of health soon. Happy new Year to you to son.


 Rade  your getting the hang of things that's true Loved your in Running posts - but as always I caution you on trying too many ideas at once - you need to concentrate on what you are doing at the same time as learning the tricks - you are trying to cram your head with positives and some will stick whilst others will get you all over the place - the reading material you have put up is good - dare I say very good - but it has to be applied in the way it was written.


 The horse conformation highlited is everything but its directed at 2 yr old's  first run etc. Its a start and its gold IF your going to back 2 yr old's My Advice is DONT - Martin made the point that Horses can tell you a lot with their body language BUT form in the book is what you need. 
 I endorse that but you should never do one without the other!!!!!!


So lets say am going to the races
 I have studied the Vfb for Form and current well being - best DSR Best distance best ground best handicap mark 

1. I have select the animals I want to back (or lay) in the best race of the day based on clear previous form over at as many runs as you can. This is the race you concentrate on.Base your selections on form and prizes won at the best distance and ground.
2. Check if the have any sort of headgear first time today the days since they ran and if that's favourable.
3. Watch each of your selected animals in the parade - Take your Time
4. Has it got a nice even gait  and walking with its head looking down no sweat or rolling eyes? (plus) 
5. has it got an ass like a cooks bum tight and full of muscle?(Plus) - are its rib cages showing?(minus) 
6. Is it walking round without tugging at the loose rein ? (plus)Jig Jogging?(Minus) Walking on the grass instead of the Ring path are there two handlers? (minus)
7. Does it throw its head about when mounted buck a little ? (Minus)  
8. Look at the newcomers - I saw Best Mate walk into the parade ring first ever run in a bumper - he looked like the god of all horses and knew it himself - Wrote that I had seen the future Gold cup winner - it was my finest hour of horse watching he bought me my first  quality car!  ( I never give up an opportunity to tell that Story)     I digress

by then you can have whatever Points added or subtracted  to have narrowed your selections.
All I do myself is add the number of minus or plus to each animal - Normally I have narrowed the field down to what I want to back or lay to two or three horses - any more than that am unlikely to have a bet! The horse I select for the win is the horse I lump on.


 Now the Down side this is horse racing - a bit of blowing paper/ a dog/ a flash photographer animal falling in front/barging /rein snap saddle slip bit moved  and even mud clot in the mouth, broken blood vessel forced out the list goes on and on ///


There was an illustration of the Australian wonder horse winning the king George and I made notes that day on the second rather than the winner ---- take a look at the race and see what Note I would have made and come back to me on them   
 What your Articles talk about is some pointer on in running and refer to a nodding horse - we have referred to those on the blog in the past as "bridle" horses who lob along without urging or extension by the jockey this is the animals style and  "nodding" if it is travelling as smooth as this in its lower paces it is not using excess energy to get to the leaders - now the Acid test comes into play - can it continue once the jock has asked it to go past a horse still travelling well able to move at a higher pace still able to get lungs full of air ? We often come to the conclusion that it can and wins nicely without acceleration because it doesn't have to. It is a stayer - BUT if it has to accelerate and gurgles its  a dodgepot for the distance. I should be noted as such and backed only when getting same conditions but further.


and to conclude this diatribe let me reprint the best bit of your posting 
We have a disproportionately high opinion of ourselves. We attribute success to our own internal abilities. We blame failure on external factors - (Anyone who has had a bet should recognise this. If you back a winner it is because you are the biggest genius on earth and everyone needs to know it. Backed a few losers and the jockeys are hopeless, the trainers are all bent, the other horses blocked yours in or you were unlucky (whatever that might actually mean..). Anything that lets you off the hook.) 

How many times Have I heard that wailing  and have been guilty of the "blocked in unlucky" wail myself on many occasions !


 Come back to me with  the notes I  made on the runner up to Choiser 
(Martin Do Not cheat by looking at my Notes First you old reprobate!)


Bob  

Todays Inrunning review!

I had 4 races i looked at and i gave a few notes about it, that people, who are interested can follow my thoughts about my decisions when watching the replay.

FFos Lass 15.00
3m Hcp Hurdle
I started the betfair video and turned the sound off.
I laid the favourite Rathnaroughy at 3.0 BSP Inrunning ( went down 1.60 later) at about the halfway point of the race. I had a close look at the parade ring and wanted to look for horses that have good muscular buttock and a good size and move calmly but energetic and have their heads straight in a nice rythm. I couldnt make out one horse really, so I waited for the race and I noticed, that the fav Rathnaroughy went off a bit fast and I didnt like his rythm of head shaking and his head was a bit down, which thought, that this is negative. Also this horse wasnt big or eyecatching muscular. Then I thought its a 3mile race and its making the pace, doesnt jump fluently,so all these factors are negative and a chance at 3.0 Inrunning Lay. It went down further to 1.60 continuing the pacesetter, but it weakened rapidly in the closing stages finisihing 4th beaten 20 lenghts. Its not sure it was a good Lay, but its great fun to observe so closely.

Doncaster 16.25 3m Hcp Chase
I laid Amroth Bay after 1/4 of the race at 3.4 BSP, because it showed signs of weakness and negative head carriage and wasnt this fluent, dropped away from midfield and raced poorly went high over 25 BSP Inrunning, but gradually the Frontrunners dropped and Amroth Bay came back racing more determined with head carriage and moving forward finisihing 2nd in a tight finsish against the winner. Interesting, that a horse can race even during a race quite differently and I think it raced more efficient later in the race, so that it came back strongly. Another thing is that the finaly yards can be deadly for a horse and its maybe better to trade off at this point.
Was a wrong Lay in the review, but it raced different late in the race.

16.35 Ffoslass 2m5f

I backed 3/4 of the race Fleur de Vessy at 2.28 Inrunning to win, because I thought he still looks solid with his head and made a strong impression to move straight forward, the original fav Paradise Expected didnt seem stronger to me at this moment, I was true in that but i didnt look properly on the final winner Normally, which closed down heavily a way back, but it played into hands that my bet stopped running shortly before the last bend. Finished finally 2nd beaten 5 lenghts. Its maybe better to concentrate on horses, that make strong/bad impression early as then there is not such a great of an advantage for people with faster pictures and stick to observations from there and still get most of the time the prerace odds.

Doncaster 16.55 2m NHF

I backed the favourite Shotavodka at 2.3 from half way point, as I saw he was running sweetly from the front and had his act together, the horse didnt get too fast and from its size its a good type to accelerate in a sprint finish. I was right and it raced sweetly until very late ( under 1.1 Inrunning I think, when it had a bit problems with a good lead that it carried his head to the right and faded a bit not lucky to be so alone maybe and there was very strong finisher with the winner, who didnt make an impression on me before in the race and at the halfway point on early, he raced not very smoothly but had his act together late and closed down several horses and played out his stamina, was also a bigger type than the fav.
After the race, I would still play the Back again I think, as it was really just this problem, that the horse carried right at a crucial time and needed a bit to get his act again together. This was the critical point. Still would be an easy nice trade from 2.3 to 1.10-1.25 as it stayed long there.
Got beaten a nose, that says all.

Thought for Thought

After investigating Inrunning betting and realising, that I was blind to much more important and interesting subjects about horseracing than only bare form i found a really interesting site about horses and betting. This site is about so much and you learn a lot through their articles. This is really good work, put up together by people, who seem to me very honest about the subject and put a great effort in their work on the basis of critical thinking.

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/b2yor_articles.htm

I try to copy some of their material here and their is room for discussion about it.

"The official figures are projections from compacted & crumpled results and will be variably truthful intimations of real ability. Find a way to avoid the crude 'projection' and you ought to stumble into some unknown truths (helped by having looked at the horses properly in the Paddock)."

"5f Put another way 29 of the 35 races (83%) of the winners have either led through halfway or been within 2 lengths of the leader."

"Which is why making forward moves, against horses still going forward themselves, is such a good indicator of better ability"

"Let us say the race is from Chile and the winner in steaming clear by a double figure number of lengths towards the line and is not stopping. One commentator is ecstatically shouting "Simply supreme, a majestic performance from the best horse the country has ever bred. Unparalleled...". In the other the deadpan voice-over will be saying "..well the 1 to 10 favourite is coming home well clear there but in a slow time. That was probably the worst maiden run this side of the Andes since the thoroughbred got here....". With no other information you will now have to do a number of tasks to rate that horse, analyse it's previous and next runs in Video review, etc. B2yoR would not mind betting you would be watching live races with the sound turned down in future."

The head and neck have two effects on performance :-

• They are heavy structures carried away from the main centre of balance so they need to be in proportion and move correctly.
• They assist with the breathing (a galloping horse takes one breath per stride) with the horse exhaling as the head and neck go forward as it reaches with the front legs and they strike the ground. The horse then inhales as it lifts it's head and neck and moves into the suspension phase of the gallop (with all four feet off the ground as the hind legs recover to strike the ground under the body). If the horse does not move it's head and neck correctly then it is not going to fill it's lungs correctly.

NODDING

All the way through this article the point has been stressed that you need to take the high level view first (the "80%+") before you start worrying about the details. But it is worth finishing this section with an exampleof a detail which is worth investigating because it certainly has a noticeable effect on horse's performances.

An example has been chosen which you can investigate both with on-course paddock review and by watching races on the TV. The issue can be titled "Nodding" and refers to how a horse carries and uses its head and neck when galloping. On-course paddock review will enable you to identify whether a horse's neck and head are in proportion with it's body and how it carries the neck and head.

When watching a race look for how the horse's heads and necks move, especially how rhythmical the movement is. The classic example of excellent use of the head and neck in a metronomic, balanced and smooth way was Choisir on the firm ground at Royal Ascot and Newmarket in 2003.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=odI2pmzwNn0#t=14s

Some examples of issues to consider :-

• Look at high quality races and compare them to selling races - do you see any differences in Nodding?
• In the early stages of long distance races (including Hurdles and Steeplechases) look for the horses which are Nodding most rhythmically and efficiently. How do they perform in the race?
• What effect does this issue have with horses where their jockeys are pulling hard on the bit to stop them going forward. The received wisdom is that a horse which pulls too hard will fail because it has used up too much energy. What effect does having it's head held in one position have on it's breathing and therefore performance?

Racing Ahead articles paddock review:

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/B2yoR_PRev_Explain.htm

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/05_007_RacingAhead_June.html

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/05_008_RacingAhead_July.html

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/05_009_RacingAhead_August.html

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/05_010_RacingAhead_Sept.html

Article about Althleticism defining gaits a horse has, that is a winner.

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/06_002_1_gaits_of_the_horse.html

Article about the horseracing scene:

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/11_001d_1_Pointless_Punditry.html

• We see patterns where there is only randomness - (Humans work hard at trying to see patterns in any situation as our brains try to make sense of the offered input. But we take it too far and convince ourselves of patterns that are non-existent. Clouds that look like Jesus Christ at extreme levels of nonsense. Try looking at the following list of Os & Xs which represent a trainer's results with his most recent runners. Xs indicate horses who have won or made a place and Os horses that were unplaced - OXXXOXXXOXXOOOXOOXXOO. Is this stable 'in form' or on a good streak or is the pattern random?)
• We see causal relationships where there are none - (Having perceived a pattern we are desperate to apply a cause to it. In racing we can easily manage to convince ourselves that some cherished theory is working in picking winners aided by small sample sizes and cherry picking results. Which means that we need to test things formally to prove causation.)
• We overvalue confirmatory information for any given hypothesis - (Once we have our cherished theory we make sure we note and repeat any evidence which confirms it. We forget or dismiss anything counter to it. One race result fit your theory? Never shut up about it. Bluster and dismiss the others.)
• We seek out confirmatory information for any given hypothesis - (We bias the scales to make sure we find anything that supports our view. We go looking for it and adapt our approach to try to find results which fit our theory.)
• Our assessment of the quality of new evidence is biased by our previous beliefs - (The difficulty in giving up cherished ideas or accepting new ways of doing things. Worth thinking about this point all the way through this document and how it relates to the reactionary, my-eye-knows-best comments we get from a wide range of racing insiders. Along with the lack of documentation to support any of these beliefs. Think about it in relation to the huffing & puffing in response to the Australian Whip Study, and so forth.)
• We overvalue Available information, that which is made easy for us to access - (Authority figures like Racing Pundits can push what they like at you and this becomes the 'Available' information. You are now being brainwashed into this being the 'Truth' with no supporting data and research.)
• Our views and values are socially reinforced by conformity - (Again, think about the closed, insider, world of racing and how much conformity is there. How questioning anything is just not allowed. How does this affect the Pundits and reporters associated with this set-up?)
• We have a disproportionately high opinion of ourselves. We attribute success to our own internal abilities. We blame failure on external factors - (Anyone who has had a bet should recognise this. If you back a winner it is because you are the biggest genius on earth and everyone needs to know it. Backed a few losers and the jockeys are hopeless, the trainers are all bent, the other horses blocked yours in or you were unlucky (whatever that might actually mean..). Anything that lets you off the hook.)

"It's not safe to let our intuitions and prejudices run unchecked and unexamined: It's in our interest to challenge these flaws in intuitive reasoning wherever we can, and the methods of science & statistics grew up specifically in opposition to these flaws, Their thoughtful application is our best weapon against these pitfalls."

Cheers!

A bit late, but Happy New Year all

Happy New Year to one and all. I know, it's well into the New Year!

I need to catch up on the posts, therefore, I will comment later on any that I feel deserves (?) a reply.

Inrunning betting

Today I bet the first time just Inrunning with the geekstoy training mode and i didnt study form running styles just had the delayed betfair live video and I was surprised how much advantage you get, when ignore all normal factors and just concentrate on the race and take a close look at the horses. I just watched out for their body language during the first half of the race.
I played maybe 8 races and had three 8/1 plus winners and three lays under 4.0 that lost.

I matched on A.W for 28 Odds the winner Unex Picasso, that went even at odds of 1000 and won. I just saw after 1/4 of the race after a bad start that this horse raced still close held up and looked very fresh I then had a bet and it had a short downperiod went to 1000 and finished strongly.

In the 2.10 Leicester Soir Destruval was 3.0 2nd favourite and during the first quarter of the race stayed all the time under 3.3 despite having a down head carriage and looking really unfit to me, Lay and this horse finished last. The fav looked strong all the time Baile Anrai but Valid Point looked also very strong from the front during the race and shortly before 3/4 of the race i backed it at 18, because it looked strong and I didnt understand the odds, because Larks Lad and Soir Destruval looked nervous and I thought against the fav worth ago at 18 at this race point. Made a nice move forward and went 1.22 Inrunning finishing in a sprint finish 2nd.

This experience really made me think, what worth has form, when on the given day the horse looks bad or a horse that has no form looks superb and performs during the race. I think its worthwhile to decide a bet Inrunning just on the impression how the race pans out and decide accordingly, because its hard to predict pace and fitness you have to take a look inrunning, with factors you dont know before the off really.

Todays gambles?

11.30 had a look at these races: All horses have a strong money on it tending downwards and are also strong steamer candidates. I think if you back these horses midday and lay back before the off, then you would make a profit on long term.

Spacecraft 2.52 BSP (36k from 54k)12.55 Southwell 2nd
Laffan 1.96 BSP ( 42k from 69k)14.25 Southwell 1st
Blossom King 8.8 BSP ( 5,5Kfrom 19k) 2.40 Leicester 5th
Larks Lad 4.8 BSP (9,5k from 30k) 3.10 Leicester unpl

Gl!

I had one day an idea, which is maybe interesting. Make a software that compares the single matched amount to the total matched amount and the calculates odds just from this figure.
For example. 5k from 10 k would be odds of 2.0 BSP and then if the real odds are higher by a significant degree back it. My theory is this, that when you have many people thinking a horse is bad they lay it, but then you have maybe people who have better knowledge that back it and together it lets the single matched amount increase. It can also drift, but there is interest for a horse and I prefer knowing interest, than knowing if its laying interest or backing interest. On another side i question if a favourite steams, but the matched amount is low, if its real significant money?

New whip rules!

Im not an expert in horseracing, but as far as I understand that new rule, we are looking for a horse that travels by itself and not a horse that needs the whip to perform well? So many Frontrunners or horses that got with use of the whip punished till the line, will now perform worse as they tend to outperform or weaken or not moody to race to optimum? Its actually a funny thing with the horses, because I work in the primary school and have to support difficult children, who are aggressive or bored and are pushed to make a good degree and the parents are so concerned there is something seriously wrong with the kid, I say, that most of the time the child is just bored or intrested in something else than school, then its forced to perform and gets violent. So there is a similarity with the horses I think, that sometimes they just dont wanna perform and in general then there is the punishment with the whip, but you know what the most interesting, that the horses, that wanna perform by itself make the highest performance. As often pointed out they are not machines, the same as the children I have to support :)

just How good is Sam Waley - Cohen?

Gold Cup-winning rider Sam Waley-Cohen left in frustration after picking up his third suspension in less than a month. As Waley-Cohen is an amateur, he can only be banned on days when there is a race staged in that category, but he had already amassed a total of 15 days to serve during January and February, with a dozen of those coming about when he rode a finish a circuit too early at Fakenham.(that was made worse apparently because of the way he blustered and treated the enquiry principles even saying his horse had given him signs of distress and that why he pulled it up !

He was also given three days for allowing Long Run to hang in on the bend entering the second circuit of the King George and received the same amount on what was only his second ride under Rules since on Time For Spring in the tauntonracecourse.co.uk Novices' Limited Handicap Chase.The stewards found he had used his whip without giving his mount time to respond approaching the second-last fence. The new days will be February 16, 17 and 19.

The 29-year-old, whose next major engagement is likely to be on Long Run in the Betfair Denman Chase on February 11, was reluctant to speak to reporters and said: "I'm not sure if I'll appeal and I really don't want to comment at the moment."

Time For Spring was still in front at the last, but Waley-Cohen had been tracked all the way by a patient Will Kennedy, who gave Made In Time (8-1) just enough rope to win well by two and a quarter lengths on the run-in.

To say that numerous people on the various blogs have labelled this guy a no hoper is an understatement - If long Run wasn't as good as it is he would not be hitting the headlines as a classy amateur - and the fact is he isn't as good as many around - he's arrogant that's for sure but what Amateur  who won the King George and  Gold cup would not think he is something special.?  Someone has to sit him down and tell him "the horse was what won it for you. You just sat on him - that all, you just sat on him, its a good horse that would have won those races with most of the jockeys in the weighing rooms".

Now he's trying far too hard, that ride yesterday was  not that  ill timed as far as pace was concerned, He asked for a big jump at the right time and to be honest I saw nothing that would make me say it was other than a better ride by Kennedy - if anything the ride was near perfect, just the animal could not last out using those tactics, only by losing were the tactics wrong, and  a professional would blame himself but  Will Sam realize that? Just a little humility is required to make this amateur very good indeed. You don't get horses to win by you reputation alone  the animal had given its all by the last, But Sams blood was up, the three cracks of the whip before the second last was a mistake,  you cannot treat horses as if they are machines --  if your loaded have matinee idol looks and have the guarantee of riding the gold cup winner maybe its all to much for him to realize this. 

My opinion - lucky but  far too arrogant ? bad combination - good luck to the lad hopefully this bottom smacking will do him a bit of good. Lets hope so cos he is going to bring the game into disrepute unless he learns quickly

 Bob  

Cheltenham pretender at Taunton 090112

a very lop sided race at 2.40 in which Darlan is going off the odds on favourite. He has to win this to stay in contention and out of Darbela  and sired by Milan - can this animal justify the odds on the predicted good to soft ground? 
Milan bred prefer top of the ground and is quoted as big as 20/1 for Cheltenham Supreme Novice hdle  at the moment. Darbela  is not a mare I know much about and this Darlan is the only one of the combined progeny in training. Trained by Henderson is the reason this horse is so short today -- its form is good ground, and even with the combined winning rate of 46% Henderson and Geraghty at the moment last run at Cheltenham under Mccoy  who looked dejected on the run-in and later confirmed he was disappointed, adding perhaps the horse 
isn't as good as initially though. 
His two previous wins came on flatter tracks and perhaps Cheltenham circuit didn´t suit, but the runner-up was fairly exposed and he does now have something to prove. Nicky Henderson later claimed he could have done more with him since his Kempton return and he did have a blow after the race, so this outing should be more revealing.
 I have my eye on Giordano Bruno since its bumper form when he pulverised animals round here on this ground. and ran a really powerful race though getting nowhere in the Aintree graded bumper.  has not been out since then but its breeding - ground and course form says that the 13s betfair current is too big - Hobbs yard is hitting the post at the moment and there could be value.  Definitely a horse to trade  for a few quid and have taken a view that because of the long layoff is the BTL in the card. Its a green bet for me already and its nice to have others money running for the prize!
This is not the lay down race but one for the notebook really. 

 Good luck remember its a Monday and the animals/prizes are pretty poor in the main with some gambles more likely than form as ever  
       

Racing monday!

One that immediately catched my eye is Vieno Griego in the 2.10 Taunton. This horse has much class actually despite its jumping quality and if getting a clear round is the one to beat.
The company the horse raced the last time against is a different calibre than today.
This horse finsihed close to Quanatitativeeasing, The Minack, Neptunes Collonges,Reve De Sivola, The Giant Bolster there is always the jumping ? mark and today its racing sharp track, but nevertheless, this horse has much class and odds of 6.0+ (was available 10.0 opening)are really ridiculous I thinkn another positive is that its a winter animal at this time around. This horse ran a cracker LTO against The Minack and stumbled badly at the last, the 2m7f will be a bit better and LTO was full of high class chasers.

Edit: Finished 3rd. Vino Griego raced again a promising race, held up very early but taking the lead from 1/4 of the race. It`s def not a horse that races very quietly and equipment seems to be necessary for this one. It had again 2-3 mistakes that cost a bit of energy and could have finished a bit closer to the first two in the end. Had now two races in a row, when it made strong move forward from 3/4 on the race, before the final bend, but today it paid out, that it finished weakly very late again. I think its capable of winning a race at this level, when things fall finally right and his mistakes fall away and the horse gets forward at the right time, but nevertheless, there is def some stamina problems with this horse, even if its hard to admit. Its a good BTL chance now after his two races next time out,as went again very low to 3.0 Inrunning.

Another one at these prices I wanna try is Jump City in the 2.40 Taunton that will benefit a lot from this step down in distance and step down in class. It ran decent enough races against the likes of Fingal Bay, Barbatos and raced well until very late, when sprint qualities were demanded against the best likes of horses. The Hot fav today also impressed me LTO in the finish, but at 3.9 BSP i have to give the well regarded Jump City a try today, as I think at this distance and against this opposition it will have much more left in the tank in the closing stages.

Edit: Finished 2nd beaten 1/2 lenghts, but the winner looked an easy one and Jump City was pulling hard very early already to follow the terrific pacemaker Giordano Bruno, who looked to me like the likely winner, made a strong front running performance and looked well fresh in comparison to the top two of the market, 3/4 out and went under 3.0 Inrunning( great call BOB!). Even the hot fav had problems and pulled a bit following the leader, but out of nowhere the leader stopped running, despite looking optical well fresh and the two market leader came back pulling itself into it. Its an interesting horse this Giordano Bruno for races with shorter breaks now, if this horse is taking the lead like today it can break down some rivals, if not weakening so strong like today and the market leaders had problems to follow this one today. Got squeezed a bit late and didnt get ridden out after to me. I wouldnt be on Jump City next time, because it looked outpaced by todays leaer and got ridden out fully. Has some stamina limitations. Darlan looked very late effortless and this race was today off a strong pace, so I maybe forgive the poor look 1/2-3/4 of the race, but as a high class prospect I wanna see this effortlessness also in this part of the race and no signs of pulling itself back.

Monday 1510 Taunton 3m Handicap Hurdle

Well after Niceonefrankie's win Bet365's free bet offer has tempted me to play the 1510 at Taunton tomorrow & after a few hours of analysis heres my thoughts.

1510 Taunton 3m 1/2f Handicap Hurdle Class 4

TIGRE D’ARON – Disappointing on handicap & trainer debut at Cheltenham latest but too soon to write him off after only 3 runs 1-0-3 (w-p-r). Down in class and up in trip so has to be worth a second look.

PAVILLON BLEU – Hurdle record is 0-3-9, four runs this season all poor and cannot recommend until signs of improvement are forthcoming.

CARRIBS LEAP – Progressive hurdler (2-1-5) who should improve further over this trip and handle the ground as he’s by Old Vic.  Well beaten on seasonal reappearance/ handicap debut but could have needed the run, mark of 118 unchanged.  Interesting.

DANTARI – Best run this season last time out here over 2m3f & ran well in a number of good handicaps last season plus he’s now 4lb below his last winning mark, on the other hand he doesn’t want ground this soft and 3miles may stretch him.

QUINTE DU CHATELET – Not shown much since returning from injury, best effort latest but still 3lb higher than last winning mark & I would like to see a bit more before parting with any cash.

MAC FEDERAL – Not seen over hurdles since 2007. Wide margin winner of handicap off same mark 4 runs ago (24/02/07) and showed from a flat run at Lingfield in April he retains some ability. Definitely worth a market check to see if connections are having a nibble.

OTTER MIST – Not the quickest but last time out C/D 4^th is promising, down 1lb to OR111 and he could come into this late on.

PHILADELPHUS – Handicap debut OR111, ran with promise over 2m4f last time out, interesting up in trip here but doesn’t always look a natural over his hurdles though there’s certainly scope for progress.

CARRICKMINES – Better known as a chaser but exploited hurdles mark two runs ago, ran better at Ascot than it looked last time& back down in class here. Conditions suit and should be thereabouts.

MADAME JASMINE – Handicap record of 1-0-5 & ran credibly over trip to far on return last time but 5lb above last winning mark and needs to show more.

SOVEREIGN SPIRIT – Needs better ground and well tailed off last 3 starts, leave alone until the spring.

VERDICT

Considering everything  Tigre D’Aron has to rate a danger but will be plenty short enough in the betting, Carribs Leap looks interesting and has solid E/W claims, a market move for Mac Federal would be significant and Otter Mist will be staying on late. But all this leads me to Carrickmines who should go very close down in class, with conditions to suit and on an attractive hurdles mark.

CARRICKMINES 1pt Win @9/2 with Paddy Power.

VfB naps!

I see this month started as good in tips as never before I guess, It would be nice to have a few more users of the tipping competition here sharing their thoughts. Nice to have one more here now and Im hoping Martyn will come back soon.

Rade!

1530 Hereford 2m5f Handicap Chase

1530 Hereford 2m5f Handicap Chase

CABINET MINISTER – Has progressed both starts over fences but room for improvement in the jumping dept, 4lb lower than last winning hurdles mark and backed this morning. Soft ground suits but is 0-0-4 (w-p-r) on a flat track.

PLUNKET – Jumping fell to pieces last two runs and best watched for now.

JIGSAW DANCER – Chase record of 1-0-10 suggests more bad runs than good and hardly shaped like he was still interested in competing last time.

BABE HEFFRON - Completely out of sorts for new yard in recent months, coming down the handicap but needs to show more before considering.

SPACE MISSION – Solid return when just beaten last time and should come on for the run, conditions suit and looks likely to be involved.

ALWAYS BOLD - Posted a fair effort on his return to fences last time out and he will be competitive off this mark (or109) but 0-0-4 on a right handed track and possibly better over further.

DOURYNA – Chase record of 1-2-9 and awful run last time but coming here off a break of 64 days and goes well fresh, top 7lb claimer booked and big run expected if jumping holds together.

DANEVA – Consistent at her level but looked ill at ease on the soft at Fontwell latest, similar conditions here and record suggests better on firmer ground so overlooked.

NICEONEFRANKIE – Outpaced and well beaten on chase debut but showed promise there and longer trip and softer ground should suit here, he should build on that experience and will go well here.

VERDICT

I’ll discount Cabinet Minister on his flat track record & Douryna on jumping grounds, so that leaves me with Space Mission & Niceonefrankie. They both look to hold solid claims and im going to go with the younger horse in Niceonefrankie

1pt win NICEONEFRANKIE @ 11/4 WITH BET365.

Welcome Fast Food!

Pleased to have contact with yet another VFB user welcome to the blog
 Yesterday Horseman put up the winner of the Tolworth and have added the racing post comments to my original posting - was very happy to collect big time on Qhilimar and the the run of Consigliere at Wincanton swelled the coffers nicely ---CONSIGLIERE, who was almost down to his last successful handicap mark for this, got a really well-judged ride by Tom Scudamore to win in convincing style. It has taken him a while to get down the weights, and one has to fear he´ll get raised quite a bit for this, which will make his life difficult again. 


If "Fast Food" would like to email me directly I can add you as a blog author and you can ask the questions you want of the guys .. there are plenty of hints and you may find going back through the blog posts that some working ideas come to mind for you. 


Sunday Going and weather  HEREFORD GOING: SOFT (Good to soft in places on chase course; GoingStick Chase 6.2 Hurdle 6.1) WEATHER (Mostly cloudy)

SOUTHWELL  GOING: STANDARD WEATHER (Mostly cloudy)  STALLS 5f - Outside; Remainder - Inside

 NAAS GOING: SOFT TO HEAVY  wEATHER (Drizzle)

 Bob

Sandown Thoughts

1405 Sandown 2m Handicap Chase

1405 Sandown 2m Handicap Chase

TANKS FOR THAT – Front runner who improved to win on reappearance, fell last time when holding every chance, up 9lb and conceding plenty of weight to some promising types here. Should run his race but looks a bit too high in the handicap.

DAVE’S DREAM – Still 10lb above last winning mark, best on good ground and Geraghty prefers Tanks For That. Overlooked.

KING EDMUND – Front runner who has a consistent profile, up 7lb for latest win and conditions suit here but  career high mark to defy and up in class, he possibly wants a bit further too.

PRET A THOU – Front runner who’s chase record is 6-4-27 so he looks exposed but ran a career best last time and even though this is a better race and he would prefer softer conditions he has solid E/W claims.

HOLD FAST – His jumping didn’t look convincing over 2m on his reappearance and is possibly more comfortable over further, saying that he should come on for the run and looks a player.

NOMECHEKI – Two poor efforts in better company last twice and overall profile none to consistent, overlooked.

RILEYEV – Progressive animal, chase record of 6-4-14(w-p-r), conditions suit and big run expected again.

DARCEYS DANCER - Hasn't convinced with his jumping and does’nt strike me as being good enough as his handicap chase record of 0-1-5 suggests.

ALL FOR FREE - Tough assignment off mark of 124 (7lb higher than last win) in better class, but is a young improving horse and should be involved in the finish.

VERDICT

If I discount Tanks For That on weight carried and Hold Fast on trip and jumping, then that leaves me with Pret A Thou who has a solid e/w shout but is totally exposed from a win perspective, Rileyev who should run his usual solid race again and All For Free who as an unexposed novice off a light weight should make his presence felt here.

1pt win All For Free @ 11/2 with bet365.

 

 

 

Saturday 7th January 2012 – 1510 - 3m 1/2f Handicap Chase - Sandown

NEPTUNE COLLONGES – Last two wins were in small fields but 2lb lower than last winning mark and staying on 4^th last time out reads well, his January-February record is 3-1-4 (w-p-r) and is worth a second look for e/w purposes.

MASTER OF THE HALL – Handicap debut off 150 looks within his grasp, easy win on reappearance beating a winner who has won again since, conditions suit here and only concern is his preference for smaller fields.

WYMOTT – Shown nothing this season in two handicap runs, running especially poorly last time, kept on same mark and best watched until signs of improvement.

EXMOOR RANGER – Won on reappearance and up 7lb, still looks well treated and can go close here with a clear round.

THE PANAMA KID – Generally progressive this term, completing hat-trick in November. Up 6lb since last win and bit more required in a competitive handicap such as this so needs to improve again on first attempt beyond 2m6f.

THE KNOXS – Respected back over fences as his chase mark is 11lb lower than his hurdle mark but I would like to see him put in a clear round before backing him, especially over Sandown’s fences.

BE THERE IN FIVE – 1-2-6 (w-p-r) is his chase record and he doesn’t look the most natural chaser but he could improve for a second season especially over a trip in excess of this one, best watched on seasonal reappearance.

QHILIMAR – Looks to need a gap between races to win so 8 day absence is a negative also looks out classed as his record in class 2 and above races is 0-0-8. Overlooked.

ANY CURRENCY – Thorough stayer who was pulled up in Welsh National latest, if fully recovered he can go well here, 2-3-8 in handicaps he is still ahead of his mark of 133 in my opinion and rates a solid e/w shot.

HOLD ON JULIO – Racing off a 16lb higher mark (including 3lb oh) than impressive C/D reappearance win (he beat nothing in hindsight) but he looks a very progressive animal (3 p2p & a hunter chase win in 2011) and can go very close off a feather weight.

VERDICT

Hold On Julio gets the vote here as this progressive animals trainer is showing great confidence by running him from out of the handicap in this valuable chase. Master Of The Hall can go well if adapting to this bigger field and Any Currency will be staying on through beaten horses at the finish.

2pts win Hold On Julio @ 7/2 with Bet365

 

2.35 The 32Red Tolworth (Novice) Hurdle Sandown 070112

  Apologies to all for my absence but am back for some stats on the Best race of the day at sandown is the 2.35  The 32Red Tolworth (Novice) Hurdle the first grade 1 race, run in Great Britain, of the New Year. The race was abandoned in 2009 & 2010 and has been rescheduled to other tracks 3 times (Wincanton, Warwick and Ascot) since 2000.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2000 to 2011):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-1-5

5yo: 5-6-34

6yo: 4-4-22

7yo: 1-2-7

8yo: 0-1-1

9yo+: 0-0-2

9 of 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 though they have represented approximately 79% of the total runners, so no great trend here.

Bred

Irish bred: 6-4-33

French bred: 2-5-16

GB bred: 1-4-17

German bred: 1-0-3

USA bred: 0-1-2

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time out (Prospect Wells is the only NON qualifier)

10 of 10 winners posted their highest MR last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 45 days (Non Qualifier Captain Conan)

10 of 10 winners had won one of their last 2 races

9 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 4 hurdles

10 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 on all completed hurdles starts

Only 2 of 10 winners had previously won a graded hurdle

Other Races

sportingbet.com Novices' Hurdle (Prospect Wells): 114 (2-0-3)

First Great Western Maiden Hurdle winner (Colour Squadron): 1 (1-0-1)

Paramount Security NH Novice Hurdle winner (Magnifique Etoile): 523 (0-2-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Kennel Gate last time out, finishing 121

2 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 14

2 of 10 winners ran in John Smith's Champion Bumper, finishing 56

3 of 4 Paul Nicholls-trained winners won a Wincanton bumper the previous Feb/March

2 of 4 Paul Nicholls-trained winners ran in Paul Nicholls Racing "NH" Novice Hurdle at Wincanton in October

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (4-3-9) has a superb record in this race having gained 4 wins and 3 seconds from his 9 runners in the race, including winning 3 of the last 4. I cant help thinking his runner today is not going here as his first choice only being entered on Tuesday when the card was reopened as there were so few entries

Nicky Henderson (1-0-4) trained the winner last year.

Philip Hobbs (0-2-3) has seen all 3 of his runners in this since 2000 finish 3rd.

Price

9 of 10 winners were sent off 5/1 or shorter

8 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting. The longest priced winner in the past 10 years was 11/1.

Favourites (5-2-11) have won 5 of last 10 renewals & show a level stakes profit of 2.12.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 5 or 6
• Finished in the first 2 last time out in the past 45 days
• Posted highest RPR last time out
• Run 1 to 4 times over hurdles
• Won one of last two starts
• Never finished outside the first 3 over hurdles
• Finished in first 2 in Kennel Gate Novice Hurdle

 My eye is drawn to the really progressive Magnifique Etoile who won the Paramount Secuity  National hunt Novice hurdle  Bangor 14th Dec - This novice hurdle went to the ill-fated subsequent Challow Hurdle winner Backspin 12 months ago and was won by horses of the calibre of Peddlers Cross, Whiteoak, My Way De Solzen and Garde Champetre in earlier seasons. The field was soon strung out and,as expected, the ground looked to be riding much quicker on the hurdles course. Magnifigue Etoile  made a winning debut over hurdles at Statford in October and followed up in taking fashion, cutting down the leader on the home turn before drawing clear to win with plenty in the tank. He is likely to stay further and is a nice prospect,his hurdling has room for improvement and he is yet to run on ground worse than good to soft. The hurdles course at the moment is considered to be riding no worse than Good to soft for the majority of the track 

 Result ----- A cracking staying handicap run at a solid gallop and the form looks sound, but underfoot conditions played a big part in proceedings.

A gamble landed as the fast-improving HOLD ON JULIO ran out a decisive winner to follow up his easy C&D win on his debut for the yard 63 days earlier off a 13lb higher mark (2lb out of handicap). He ultimately won well, but his rider emerges with plenty of credit as he didn´t convince through the first half of the race due to getting the Railway fences wrong first time around. Indeed he wasn´t great over them on the final circuit, but he does stay very well and, looking at the manner in which he powered clear up the home straight, was clearly still very well handicapped.

The winner suffered a severe bout of ringworm after his previous win in November, but had reportedly worked very well and his stable is going great guns at present. He enjoys some cut underfoot and further improvement, despite another likely hike in the weights, is impossible to rule out as it was just his third outing over regulation fences. Should there be some juice at the Cheltenham Festival he´ll take all the beating in the Festival Handicap on the opening day.

Qhilimar, who unseated last time, set out to make all and turned in a decent effort from the front. The handicapper probably now has his measure, but he remains in good heart and rates a decent enough benchmark for this form.

07/01/2012

Sandown 3.10 CH2 3m1f

Master of the Hall 4.5 BSP

There are several I can rule out of this race from the class perspective simply in this race or out of fitness like Any Currency and I think Master of the Hall is a standout, when the Ground would be Soft-Heavy, its GS-Soft in places.
Has a great record of 6 wins from 11 runs and is only entered into specific races. Has a great record during winter 5-0-7 and a 2-0-3 in January. Beat the highest rated horses here with Nacarat, Tamarinbleu, The Minack and should ne specifically targeted for this race. The only other
runner,
that would interest me here is Wymott, but his weights are too high I think in comparison to the Hennessy. The Knox has some ability but I doubt his jumping here on hard fences and the trip.Won though to superclass jumper Five Dream 2nd LTO and beat Wymott already in his career over hurdles, but 3m1f shouldnt be the optimal distance for this horse.
On Master of the Hall there are as an only horse some high early spikes backed on the graph, some good overnight support.


Another interesting runner from the market money perespective is Atouchbetweenaccara 9.0 BSP in the Wincanton 2.50, is 11 year old with the step down in distance and well handicapped, there is heavy market support for this odds range and could go well at high odds.
I have the feeling there is a decent info that this horse will run much better off an ultra low mark and the step down in distance, as its surely not a pick the usual punter would pick, with never winning in the last 10 races.

The 2.35 Tolworth Hurdle is interesting and I like the abilities from the Prospect Wells and progressed all the time in a better direction, a possible tactical race could be unsuited and this horse has now tow hard races in a short period of time, but I still think its a great value at these odds, because I think its a class act and also I respect the bumper perfromance and the strong finsih from Magnifique Etoile I think that the 2nd hot fav Colour Squadron is unsuited to this track as a long strider and the track favours Prospect Wells staying abililties more.

Love of Tara in the opener in Sandown is a great chance at a big price 14+ early. I think its the best time to catch this runner, if the ground stays into Sft. Won LTO against Animation with a wide margin and put now into stakes and has so big head to head weight advantage. Animation won against the 2nd hot favy Kells Belle, The Strwaberry One is from ability there now at an ideal point, but its a G-F horse that peaks in Spring, the Favourite is upped in class and has to prove, I think all in all this price is really a big thing.

LucainDubay is great in price at 13,0 BSPin the 3.25 Sandown considering he lost only with 7.5 lenghts to older race favourite Alarazi that is priced at 5.7 and has today much more weight to carry in a similar race on the same track.
Higgysragazzo 7.4 BSP in the 3.25 Sandown
The finishing qualities of this horse impressed me LTO and this is just a 5 year old that is a strong imrover, The first Lifestyle franked the form with a good race after and I think this 5 year old suits also from his size this track, runs a bit similar to Great Endeavour and I think stiff galloping uphill types will suit this horse a lot.
Attaglance with Walsh on Board also convinced in a highly competetive race 2nd LTO and is also available at 12.0 BSP

06/01/2012

I have a job interview today so I am not able to make own selections.

Here are the early money market selections:

Just found three in Lingfield:

In the 14.50 two would qualify early:

Maslak 3.9 BSP Won
Guards Chapel 5.7 BSP

In the 3.55 one shorter priced is borderline qualifier and another cming later.

Whodunnit 2.96 BSP Won
Patriotic 5.7 BSP

Lets see how they perform today.

Cheers rade!

05/01/2012

1.30 Ludlow


The hot fav looks strong to me and there are several others in this, that showed class and just need the right conditions(Forty Five,Mud Monkey,Ben Arctic, Cottage Acre), that can pop up at a big price, my approach in this race is a Lay therefore.
Autumn Spirit
5,4 BSP 2/10

I think Autmn Spirit is in general a horse that prefers fast ground and its wins came from in comparison to todays opposition in much weaker company. Had also an Head to Head win with 5 lenghts against the younger Akarshan ridden out with a weight 10-00 against Akarshan 11-12.
Akarshan prefers this ground much more and the distance, based solely on that and the weights they start off today I expect to reverse the form, if handling the long layoff. I rate other horses, that didnt race head to Head also much higher in this, so the Lay looks a good option to me.

Analysis: A strong pace again and Mud Monkey fell at the first, there was still some gallop and I was wrong on the Lay even, when finished 2nd as it ran again a really good race, made a lot of pace but found a bit against heavy gambled winner in the end.Ben Arctic didnt suit the pace set up, found nil as front runs and needs prob a field when it can go alone and there are no strong runners from the bridle. Forty Five again ran a good race and should really win next time.

2.00 Ludlow
Grams and Ounces
2.0 BSP 5/10 Win
heavily gambled improver and Lto this horse really convinced me really optical and is thrown into a weaker affair today with more weight but should win this again I think..

Roybuoy
40 BSP 0,5/10 Win-8,0 BSP to place

Is great in price and I take it with in this race for a place chance and a small Win wager, if the hot fav in any way makes a mistake or runs a shocker.
Reason: Is only 5 year old and finished not far in 4th LTO to decent horses like Banyan Tree, Numen and Ravi River in a Claiming contest not too bad. The trainer and jockey are top on this track.

Analysis: Strong pace from the outset suited Grams and Ounces again made smooth headway and striked late before the last bend as usual. The amazing thin about this horse is, that it is so calm in the betting parade amazing and then just races his race as its for sure it will win. I was a bit puzzled that GOunces started already 20 lenghts behind the leaders, why is it like this? Makes this sense? There was again loads of money on this horse, but how long will this be? Still is one of my favourite horses imo, given the way it runs.Royboy had a bit small late money and made the pace weakened rapidly against the held up types. Also has stamina issues, needs lone pace with a field not too classy bridle prospects.

Ludlow 14.30

Alasi 1,25 BSP
is on my follow list and thrown in a contest, that is a walkover with ease, if no mistakes, but its a perfect jumper so should win easily.
One that could be interesting here is complete RAG Laughing Game 28BSP/200 Win SP, that showed early in its career some winning form on GS-Soft tendency on Class 4 level, if the hot favy struggles or falls out something like this here a small field on an easy track on GS-Soft should be the best possibility to have a shout. Has only a chance if finding back to form and the fav falls out, but at small stakes at these prices worth a go I think. Another point is that in this small field of 6 runners three have a longer absence than 200 days ,whcih could well play into a sneaky place for my selection.

Analysis:

Todays early money with power behind:

Rosoff 14.20 Lingfield 6.6 currently Won
Brunettesonly 15.20 Lingfield 4.8 currently Won (drifted out to 8, but in a way to back it back with high stakes late)

Comment: I watched now these kind of horses, that show early high spikes with downward trend for a while and most of the time, they ran very well and win, or there is a heavy drift and they dont perform well,it takes a bit of obseravtion from the early to 12.00 market and look out for loads of money matched on a runner combined with high spikes and again observation before the off, with a fast betting software API, and then I dont kidd you are able to observe sometimes manipulated odds, for example they let it drift a bit with small or medium stakes and then the mass jumps on and then heavy stakes are backed within seconds. This late activity combined with an early market observation finds actually really good value bets sometimes. These candidates over 4.0 -10.0 that show big money are worthwhile following, but it needs careful obseravation of spikes, also if its a mass eyecatcher from form and so on... I dont say that every race is fixed but there is def a strong pattern from odds observation and how a race turns out,and not just drifters and steamers, sometimes there is a horse shortening the whole day, but there are no significant spikes and then late there comes a big Lay spike taking the mass money, who back it, because it steamed.

04/01/2012

Huntington 2m5f110y Good to Soft Soft in places HH4

Black Phantom 13,5 BSP is a bet I really fancy in Huntington today at these odds. Races off a Mark 112 today and finished LTO a good 4th in a race in Leicester on Good to Soft 5k HH3.

Interesting is, that Fiendish Flame beaten 1/2 lenghts scored after a 140 OR,Afsoun a 130 OR and the winner Christopher Wren a 128 OR. The first 5 of this race were well clear of the rest.

Today Black Phantom runs against a much weaker opposition and is still available at these odds early on. Another positive is that it has a fair break of 28 days, it will like the easy track and the weaker opposition and the Ground tending to Soft would be positive. Its still a 6year old and I think this horse is really way too high, given the fact, that it ran its rating LTO against these horses, whcih are good ones.

Edit: The hot fav got gambled liked hell and ran really a cracker at a terrific pace, Black Phantom raced a decent race, but has got some stamina issues off this strong pace, is more one in a moderate run race, I would say, but the winner of this race really impressed me.

Tuesday 02/01/2012

Illustration in the Ayr opener 12.35 Juvenile Hurdle HS4 5 runners is an interesting prospect. The Hot fav stayed LTO well in Wetherby, but Im not 100% sure it deserves to be so short priced. Illustration ran on his hudling debut quite a decent race off the rear off a very strong pace, made 2 times heavy mistakes, that cost chasing and I think the finish was quite decent for this run. Won on Soft in Catt on the Flat and is Pivotal, Saddlers Wells sired, has B Harding a good jockey booked and this field is really nothing special at all. So all odds 10+ are value here.
Abernethy is very one paced in the finish, Erycina seemed to be one paced aswell late and Phoenix Returns was over 1m5f already onepaced.

Abandoned!!!

Racing 02.01.2012

Plumpton 14.45 3m5f Sussex National Chase

Strongbows Legend 3.9 BSP 2/10 Stake
Mid Div and Creep 5.9 BSP 2/10 Stake

Strongbows Legend convinced me LTO on Soft with new applied Front Running tactics and stayed and stayed.

Mid Div and Creep if running Soft could be too classy for these, as has a 2nd in a strong Chase 2 in Chelt and kept in classy Hunter company, races similar to Strongbows Legend as a Front Runner.

Folkestone 3.10 2m5f Hcp Chase Class 3 4.2 BSP 3/10 Stake

Rigadin de Beauchene LTo race in Hereford was quite a strong line up for this race, as I remember there were several good horses in there, as I had a bet with Mud Monkey. Is not raised much and I see all chances again.

Plumpton 3.20 12,0 BSP Stake 2/10

Pensnett Bay is here a bit overpriced in this contest at 12s available. Hunt Ball has much weight and Watergate has too much weight. See a chance if handling soft to make a double.


All lost:-9 Units


GL!