Sunday, 4 March 2012

From the wall sunday 040312 happy satchel Day

How I love to post these --- 

The original Bob Taylor - and still the best?


Had a really good day posting on the selections  the wall - the big winners  were originally going to be ridden By Campbell Gillies who was stood down  Leanne really is the Blog horse of the seson so far for collecting - but watch the replay and you will have to agree

 1 Leanne 7/1 
2 Head Waiter 7/1 
3 Colbert Station 5/4F 

well the only one have any confidence in is the mare agin the boys at leopardstown Leaane will do for me expect her to go out in running ground may be too fast that's sure
 ·  · about an hour ago

Sunday 040312

The race that attracts me is the 4 o'clock at leopardstown  and the entry of the mare Leanne currently 12/1  chestnut mare Alderbrook (GB) — Nagillah (Bob Back (USA)) she has won against animals who were a stone ahead in the ratings and today has to tackle some more  in what is a very informative Chase over the years. which has shown that lower weights prevail. 
Though a mare has only won it once in the last ten running's this is one good mare who is waited with and waited with till asked to win her races - a very decent in running horse that have made money following she beat home a decent field of geldings getting up  on the run in with Cooper looking around for dangers two out - 
heavy ground Clonmel http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=CLO_2012_02_02_05_1540
so can she act on good ground? she seemed unsuited by in on the flat  in her early days but ran  cracker on good to soft over 3miles  around here only losing out by 3.5lengths against Cross Appeal into 5th.  So hopefully will show just how good she is today against a better field am on and am going to play her again in running.


 Will be watching out for some decent runs from Ferdy Murphy horses today now his yard back in the swing and his beloved Sedgefield (also runs two at Huntingdon) - also would put in a word for Furguson horses running today at Huntingdon   Kaddood in the 2.10 and  House Party in the 5.10
 also today take a look at Campbell Gillies on Fashion Stakes at Sedgefield in the 3.20  marathon hurdle 3m3f with blinks first time and the outsider of the field at 20/1  is bred for a marathon trip and this ground money would be very significant.


 See you on the Timeform wall this afty - good luck all  

Saturday, 3 March 2012

Good Day and martin crowing gives me a headache -- NURSE

Not only did you beat my 1 Aerial 100/30F 2 Dan Breen 18/1 (almost decanted my jock at the second last otherwise would have had the momentum to beat your  1 Aerial 100/30F  you must have been pooping yourself  on the run in -There  was a heavy downpour before this race.  Often a well-contested handicap chase, and it was no different this time round, any one of five or six holding a chance down the straight and a cracking finish being produced. The form looks solid. Paul Nicholls has now won the race five times since 2006, Ruby Walsh being seen at his strongest to get AERIAL home in front. Disappointing from 3lb higher in a strong handicap at Cheltenham the time before, he had earlier looked smart in winning at Ascot and this performance very much points to him being in need of 3m now, and possibly softer ground. He looked beaten at various stages of the race, sometimes going right at his fences, but he kept finding, and will be considered for Punchestown. He could progress enough to compete at a higher level next season.

Dan Breen ran a much-improved race with the cheekpieces replacing blinkers. He´d been dropped a few pounds for two disappointing efforts this season and looked the winner for much of the final 2f, but his stamina didn´t quite last out on this first try at 2m4f. He´s in the Grand Annual and will presumably head there next.



 But you also beat me with your Good Fella - The complexion of this race changed when the gallant Liszt fluffed his lines at the last, a mistake that allowed the staying-on GOOD FELLA to get up close home. The runner-up bowled along in front and when he jumped the second-last fluently some several lengths clear he looked en route to victory. However, what happened at the next made the difference between success and defeat. He missed it, losing valuable momentum and the top-weight capitalised to register his fifth career win.


 Good Fella had hinted a return to winning form on his penultimate start at Fairyhouse over this trip and he probably wants a bit further than this.


Well done Martin (grrrrr)  I not only layed that Nichols horse - (refer to my posts on that yard earlier) I layed every one of his runners today - so am not unhappy to let one of the lucky ones get home !! even if you were the one that it up, which rankles still.


Some very decent performances put up today and deserve to be note booked including the very very good Bumper winner with a prize as big as the festival bumper  A fair bumper, no more, but one that should still produce winners. UP TO SOMETHING  (Posted on the Timeform radio wall)  deserves plenty of credit for being able to win three bumpers, something few horses manage. Held up when winning last time, this tough sort dug in grittily when challenged and seemed well suited to the positive ride. Fully expected to make a decent jumper by his trainer, he´ll almost certainly be put away now for next season. and that's when we strike again


 Bob 

Right handed - huh!!!

Bob put the dreaded red mark through my horse Aerial, all I can say is BOOM And a bigggggger BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM for my selection Good Fella

PL statistics of the bets I do on Timeform Wall.

In the future I will update my bets I do on the timeform wall, here on this blog, I make it easy and dont write much, everyday after the wallday I will write here an small update of the PL with date and progress. I just decided now to beginn with a 1000 Units bank and and play my stakes from 0,5 to 10 Units. There were two days on the wall I remember: I will just update in this format like here:

Start Bank: 1000 Units

25.02.2012 +11,61 Units
26.02.2012 +11.34 Units
03.03.2012-9,71 Units

Total: 1022,95 Units

If I use 0,5 Units play then I would divide 1022,95 Units trough 20 for the next stake...
It helps to have overview of the bets and people will know if its worthwhile following or not.

Cheers rade!

Veterans race Newbury 2.40

what has not been said about Fair Along ? he is enigmatic that's for sure - if he starts then he will race off in front for a decent Btl if he doesn't your stuffed !  its hard to weigh the race up but old boy Hello Bud might just fit the bill at the current 14s - was up with the pace well last time against Hey big Spender was only collared on the approach to the second-last and weakened out of the frame on the run-in. the ones in front of him were all babies(8 and nine year olds) can run well at a big price today
 Bob

BARBURY INTERNATIONAL SUPPORTING GREATWOOD GOLD CUP (HANDICAP CHASE) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

There are a lot in this that are running for their feed that's for sure -horses aged over 10 struggle  P. Nichols and d.pipe have strong records horses prominent in the betting fair best other factors  favourites generally run well but tend not to win  a top three finish last time prominent runners have an edge 8 yr old's have  dominated over the years 


Martin has put up Aerial who is a definitely right handed animal who just lurches right handed quite badly when going left handed  as shown in the paddy power is too high in the handicap for me and at 6 cannot have him even though the yard has had the last  four of the last ten running's.


Fine Parchment won this last year off  a mark of 130 having run 2nd at warwick the time before - is an absolute stayer gets into day off 133  was well behind  Fix the Rib last time who is one that I will keep an eye on - really has dropped down the handicap he is in his correct grade but is this too Far?  he always runs prominently loves this ground and with the others showing no sort of form has to be my  Back to lay animal as is not sure to last home and is an easy free bet remember he was running against the likes of Master minded last year this time of year and putting up very good performances -  but as I said at the start - who of this line up can give you any sort of real confidence today? - This is a poor renewal beware


 Bob


 addendum - did not give the joker in the pack which has to be Dan Breen tried this distance first time and with the blinks removed and pieces applied pipe only entry in a race he won in the past with Madison du Berlais --- 

Saturday 03rd March

Hi all, it's good to be back. The racing today isn't too bad considering Cheltenham is right around the corner. I've narrowed the races down to just four today and I'm pressed for time, so it's machine gun style tipping:


1.55 Kelso Absinthe
2.30 Navan Good Fella
3.10 Newbury Aerial
3.35 Kelso Captain Conan

Friday, 2 March 2012

The Grimthorpe handicap chase - Doncaster at 3.25 on Saturday 3rd March.

The Grimthorpe handicap chase takes place at Doncaster at 3.25 on Saturday 3rd March. It's a class 2 handicap chase run over 3M 2F, which is seen as a trial for the Aintree and Midlands Grand Nationals. GOING: GOOD (Selective watering Thursday; GoingStick 9.1). (Light rain)

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (only 8 runnings):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-4
7yo: 0-2-9
8yo: 2-4-14
9yo: 2-3-20
10yo: 3-2-15
11yo+: 1-3-15
7 of 8 winners were aged 8 to 10 though they accounted for approximately 63.6% of total runners

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 2-7-34
Horses carrying 10-11 or lower: 6-8-43
Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won 6 of the last 8. The two exceptions carried 11-9 & 11-12 and had been placed in a listed handicap chase over 3M+ that season.  
Top Weight: 3P1P68P46 (1-1-9)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 137 or higher: 2-4-29
Horses rated 136 or lower: 6-11-48
No very strong trends here but horses rated 136 or lower have won 6 of last 8 and filled 74% of the places from 62.3% of the total runners.
The 2 winners who were rated over 136 were Cloudy Lane, who had won the Kim Muir and Tommy Whittle Handicap chase, and Grey Abbey, who had won a grade 2 novice chase and had been placed in the race 2 years previous.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 8 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (5 won)
8 of 8 winners ran over 2M 7F or further on last start
7 of 8 winners had run in past 40 days
8 of 8 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August
7 of 8 winners were 3rd or 4th season chasers (exception was a 2nd season chaser who won the Kim Muir as a novice)
8 of 8 winners won a chase over 2M 7F or further at a left handed track
7 of 8 winners posted highest RPR in a chase over 2M 4F+ at a left-handed track
7 of 8 winners (last 7) ran in 13 or fewer handicap chases
8 of 8 winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases
4 of 8 winners had won or placed at Doncaster (other 4 having first course start)

Other Races
Previous season's Kim Muir winner (Junior): 1 (1-0-1)
Grand National winner (Ballabriggs): 7 (0-0-1)
Becher Chase winner (West End Rocker): 6 (0-0-1)
2 of 8 winners ran in previous season's Irish National, finishing PU

Trainers
Donald McCain (1-1-3) has saddled Cloudy Lane to gain a win and a place in this.
Nicky Henderson (1-0-1) trained the winner 2010.
Sue Smith (0-2-7) has gained 2 places from her 7 runners and Brian Ellison (0-1-1) has seen his one runner since 2002 in this make the frame.

Price
7 of 8 winners (last 7) were priced between 3/1 and 11/2
Clearly this is a race where you should be sticking with the market principals with Skillwise at 20/1 in 2002, the only winner in the past 10 years coming from outside the first 4 in the betting.
Favourites (1-2-10) have a poor record in this, gaining just 1 win and 2 places from 10 runners since 2002.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Aged 8 to 10
·         Carrying 10-11 or less (or placed in a class 1 chase this season)
·         Officially rated 136 or lower
·         Finished in first 4 over 2M 7F on last start in past 40 days
·         Third or fourth season chaser
·         Run in 13 or fewer handicap chases (winning 1 to 3)
·         Won a 2M 7F+ chase at a left-handed track
·         Previously won or placed at Doncaster (or having first course start)
·         Trained by Donald McCain or Nicky Henderson
·         Priced between 3/1 and 11/2

 currently there are only 7 runners with two out of the handicap proper -  
Ikorodu Road 9-13, and  Pentiffic 9-7
 those rated 136 or lower are  Neptune Equester (132) Mac Aeda (131)  Ikorodu Road(130) Pentiffic (124)

 of these Mac Aeda is a very strong candidate - a confirmed stayer who won its last race very convincingly off a strong gallop and the Jeffeson yard very strong at the moment. he does not want the ground too fast but is one very upward spiral grey http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,483965,00.html he tends to back off his fences and has a throw near front fore but stays forever up in grade off a feather weight and this could well be his target for the season !

 I have a love for West end Rocker as anyone reading the blog will know an he's done us proud this season and is my list for the national he has to find his gear, he jumps from fence to fence and he wants these big, galloping tracks has been raised a massive 12lbs for this race  but he won the class 1 so well last time it hurt - http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,473401,00.html

more tomorrow when we know the ground  for sure - study the form and stats and let me know what attracts you

Bob



I've not been on the blog for a while - hope everyone is well. Can I get my little plug in Bob lol it's for my new Horse Racing Advisory service !! Let me know if it's okay and I'll plug it, if not, it's not the end of the world. It's been live for just over a month (after a FREE 4 weeks trial) - profits good :)

To the racing; 3.30 Newbury, the improving Railway Dillon is a knock bet today. Beat an OR 119 Pena Dorada last time out, which would put him rated at 131 (minimum) but has got in here on 124!!! The ground will suit and the distance is fine. The hat-trick looks a given.

Nag Me horses/trainers 020312

Racecourse
Trainer
Horse
Age
Form
Odds
  
 
4
600090-
SP
Bet Now 
 
Your Notes for: R Sweeney (IRE) | Manage alert
Note Created: 21 Feb 2012 | 13:41
Another County Cork trainer, Sweeney has done well with a small string, and he’s always one to watch in hunter chases, where his record is three from seven at time of writing -
not his sort of race on the Aw today as this horse is so unsuited and this trainer is known to back very well market if getting really punted will be the guide (and early morning shows it to be so)
  
 
  
 
8
335110-
SP
Bet Now 
 
Your Notes for: M Butler (IRE) | Manage alert
Note Created: 23 Feb 2012 | 17:34
Butler won’t keep me busy when searching the entries, but he’s likely to finish in front come the end of each season. Whilst most of his runners are over jumps, he has been known to have a winner or two on the flat as well.- 
tonight's race looks made for it at Dundalk and am expecting a big run 
  
 
6
9333
11/2
Bet Now 
 
Your Notes for: N J Gifford (IRE) | Manage alert 
Note Created: 27 Feb 2012 | 10:40 
Nick Gifford particularly Kempton fontwell and plumpton in great form 260212 This is a horse with a really impressive progressive profile and the tongue tie applied again. Travels really well in his races and in his first handicap I make him at least 4lbs well in off what he has achieved so far!  I am convinced this horse is made for a left hand track and willing to put my money up 
 

Newbury - 2.55 chase PHYSICOOL HANDICAP CHASE (IN AID OF WEST BERKSHIRE MENCAP) (FOR THE GEOFFREY GILBEY TROPHY) (CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-130) Winner £6,498 RUK Good 2m1f Number of runners: 7

 A very good line up of animals for this and one of the best BTL(back to lay) in the business Marodima lines up under Tom O'Brien  against the vastly improving NiceOneFrankie.  Marodima is a confirmed front runner but can be place where he likes in the race and can go either way round though better in smaller fields left handed.
NiceOneFrankie has a similar profile and will be all the rage in the ring. He will not want to get into a running match with Marodima and will be waiting to pounce late - he has not shown the same speed figures Venita Williams yard is getting its act together of late having been held up by the weather more than most. I am opposing (but not laying!)  this animal  The vibes are he will sit off the back of the pace and come late and am not convinced Newbury will suite it if the pace is strong.
 I cant have the moore horse Lord Singer who to me is very much a dodgepot with his own ideas about the game  I have already layed it and happy to do so he was well out in front of War party at Sandown and loves to front run - if he does not get the lead he does tend to sulk - jumps best left handed like today but that was a heavy fall at Sandown(impeding War Party!)  I can see him trying it from the front today  his already fragile confidence must have been shaken.
 Joker in the pack -- War Party its run at Sandown last time was a fast run affair and he finished a very creditable 3rd against Song Sung Blue - he travelled well - was off the pace and jumped cleanly even avoiding the faller with some athleticism. The Claimer takes a very nice lil 5lbs off his back and has ridden 2 winners-from 5 runners at the track. War party will be suited by the Newbury run in better than Sandown 


 It should be a very exciting race 


 Bob  

Thursday, 1 March 2012

My comment on Bobs article!

Its true, Bob has a fantastic way of
analyzing races and knows from his experience of watching many races
details that count, how does a horse need to look like to do well in
a marathon race? What does a track like Cheltenham need over which
distance? What is a right handed animal? What is a stiff test? What
needs Soft Going? many things he considers, but I have to add, that
he uses the formbook in combination with observation of the races via
Video late replays or direct on the wall watching the races live.
When I came here I looked just at the formbook and didnt know, what
is right handed animal and all these things, I started watching the
replays and combined it with formbook, I think the in the formbook
you can find for example what preference a horse has what conditions
it likes, but also i have to add, you see this better if you look at
a horse how it races on video, because then you understand why the
animal prefers this and that via your eye. It needs both a
combination of Visual Formbook and Direct Observation of replays.
Another important factor: Look at the horse in the ring, it can look
good or bad and beware of fixing yourself on one horse too much in
your prerace analysis, because on the given day, when you look at all
horses in the ring and you only fixed your attention on your chosen
formanimal, then you maybe miss the other horse that looks superb or
yours looks bad on this day and races accordingly. Even when you spot
a horse that looks good in calm walking in the ring, its possible its
racing totally akward on a gallop and carrying his head wrong or
getting pushed, all things can be. Thats why I think also Inrunning
momentary reactions are needed for the observations you make. Its
also good like Bob points out to have in mind how an animal races
like, from prerace video replays. When you look at the profits Bob
shared here and you would follow the post trough and checked the
results, you would find out, that he had not many tips early in NH
Season 2011 and his performance was +-0 I slightly remember and I got
a really good start, but things got worse and I started to apply Bobs
hints better and stopping using stakes. Lately I have for me a pretty
good live approach on the wall, a bit more careful a looking at my
Daily PL and direct live observation without any preform analysis, I
have to say it works okay, so I try to dwelve more into it. Bob has
since 3 month I think dont know detailed, pretty much such a big
Strikerate at huge massive odds+ many small odds, that I give anybody
the advice learn from him. But also learn in the process in sharing
and creating ideas, dont copy him or me, look at what suits you and
what be open. It make no sense, if you just copy his tips or apply it
without looking at it for yourself and give another idea to it to
expand. Im very thankful for his support and love to share with him
the thing called horseracing. Many thanks!

Ben

if you want to know the in line form guys this is The System - forget tipsters

Racecard updates for Visual Form-Book now include BIG RACE ENTRIES. Currently available (amongst many others) are..

13/03/12 CHELTENHAM: The Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)
13/03/12 CHELTENHAM: The Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1)
13/03/12 CHELTENHAM: The Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
14/03/12 CHELTENHAM: The RSA Chase (Grade 1)
14/03/12 CHELTENHAM: The Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)
15/03/12 CHELTENHAM: The Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)
15/03/12 CHELTENHAM: The Ladbrokes World Hurdle (Grade 1)
16/03/12 CHELTENHAM: The Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)
16/03/12 CHELTENHAM: The Gold Cup (Grade 1)
24/03/12 LINGFIELD:: The Winter Derby (Group 3)
31/03/12 DONCASTER:: The Lincoln Handicap (Class 2)
14/04/12 AINTREE:::: The Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

All these races can be analysed just like any other race with Visual Form-Book right now, giving  members a big advantage and even more opportunities. Visual Form-Book will even connect directly to the appropriate Betfair Antepost markets.



Am not a great Ante Post man - too many things can happen right up to getting to the start and early prices are in fact a big profit area for bookies and tipping sites alike  but knowing the form studying the race plays and how they fared against each other  - the ground and how they handicapped this time around cannot be bettered by any other interactive system at half the price! - you can see who past races were priced up who ran against who what the ground was like and post race comments - what horses caught the eye - 
Anyone who has seen the fantastic strike rate  this book provides from my posts on Time form Radio wall  will see where I have gleaned the information


 Bob  

Eyecatcher Running today 010312

Its a poor time to go punting at the minor tracks - a lot of animals are running for their feed and a hope and a prayer - you may never see some of the winners again -I will be looking at Hunter chasers rather than anything else simply because this is the season where profit can be made following the young Hunter chasers who have already performed over park fences taking on classier older animals that will be backed because of their past exploits. Have looked at the two races in question and don't think they will attract any of my money though.
 So eyecatcher's running today are few and far between that's for sure  I have one and only one at that - in the 3.40 take a look at Al Shabiya  who actually gets in here a 1lb below its run against that very exciting Cross The Flags who really is an eycatcher but she beat the rest very convincingly as that one sauntered past her not breaking sweat !  Has won on good ground on the flat though her action is of a mudlark and the reservation of going right handed instead og left tempers the bet - looks to need every inch of three miles  Has Cheekpieces first time which may bring her on --- He main Rival Dream Again Boys (lay) was hard put to win against  the 11 yr old Phardessa who hadent won since 2009  in a boys race  2m4f. Dream again Boys impressed the official handicapper and as a result will be upped another 10lbs for future races which means its very well in here today, again is a left handed animal and its about whether it can do both the 3miles on a right handed track and if you like Richie MKcLernon as a jockey (nil wins from 22 rides at Taunton) over Wayne Hutchinson who has a 15% strike rate (11-from 74)


so thats the eyecatcher and thats prob my only bet - but with the health warning at the beginning of this piece its a BTL

  Edit 10-54 Watch out for Briefcase in this race - tried at 3miles round here was very honest run against two decent horses only crying enough on the run in - was carrying  21lbs more than No Woman no cry that day back from a break and same jockey - will be significant if any money comes for an animal that can handle trip ground and track !


 Thats it folks!!!!


 Bob