Melling Chase 3.05 Aintree 130412

The grade 1 Melling Chase has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade, including Moscow Flyer, Voy Por Ustedes, Albertas Run and Master Minded. Run over 2M 4F, it gives the main protagonists from the Champion Chase and Ryanair a chance to meet.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-1-2

6yo: 0-1-5

7yo: 1-2-7

8yo: 2-5-24

9yo: 4-3-20

10yo: 2-2-15

11yo+: 1-1-8

Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-9-38

Horses aged 9+: 7-6-43     

All 3 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred. All 7 winners aged 9 or older were Irish bred.

Breeding

Irish Bred: 7-7-35

French Bred: 3-6-31

German Bred: 0-1-2

British Bred: 0-1-12

American Bred 0-0-1

All 10 winners were either Irish or French bred.

8 of 9 French bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 or younger

13 of 14 Irish bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 or older

British bred runners gained no wins and just 1 place from 12 runners.

Price

9 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter

Only once in the past 10 runnings has the winner come from outside top 4 in the betting.

Favourites (5-3-12) have won 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.24.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Irish bred aged 9+ or French bred aged 5 to 8

·         Had at least 15 career chase starts (won at least 5)

·         Run 4 to 7 times this season

·         Ran in this season’s Ryanair or Queen Mother Champion Chase

·         Won over 2M 4F+ (or a previous Champion Chase winner)

·         Won a grade 1 chase this season

·         Ran in the King George this season

·         Finished in first 2 in Tingle Creek and/or Ascot Chase

·         Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in John Durkan, Fortria and/or Kinloch Brae

·         Previously finished in first 3 in a race at the Aintree Festival

·         Trained by Alan King, Jonjo O’Neill or in Ireland

·         Priced 8/1 or shorter

its a shocker this year with nichols fielding two of the eight runners but I cannot see past Finnians Rainbow to win this - If Pure Faith can show Bowen's yard is back it has decent form this track and ground against some really tired hacks for the grade and just for fun am putting it in the forecast with Finnians 

 Bob

The John Smith’s Topham Chase 3.40 130412

The John Smith’s Topham Chase  It is a 2M 5½F grade 3 handicap chase run over the Grand National fences. 

Trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-1-15

6yo: 0-2-15

7yo: 1-2-31

8yo: 1-6-59

9yo: 3-8-63

10yo: 4-7-67

11yo+: 0-4-49        

Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-11-110

Horses aged 9 or 10: 7-15-130

Horses aged 11 or older: 0-4-49

In past 5 years horses aged 9 or 10 have won 4 of 5 & filled 13 of the 20 places

Since 1983 none of the 91 runners aged 11+ have managed to win this race.  

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 2-18-144

Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 8-12-145

8 of the last 9 winners carried 10-5 or less

Top Weights: 03F00BF002F (0-2-11). 

The only two top weights to make the frame have been Exit Swinger (2003) who had previously been placed in 3 graded chases & was runner-up in the Grand Annual and Scotsirish (2010) who had previously won two grade 2 chases.

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time out (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced in Kim Muir)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days

10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since August

9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 chase that season

9 of 10 winners were 3rd, 4th or 5th season chasers

8 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases (2 exceptions were French bred chasers aged 5 to 7 that had finished in first 2 in the Byrne Group Plate)

9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicap chases

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase worth 9K+

8 of 10 (last 7) had contested a graded chase

10 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track

4 of 10 winners (last 4) had run over hurdles that season

Racing Tactics

7 of 10 winners raced prominently throughout the race

It appears to be key that you have a runner who likes to be close to the leaders as 29 of the last 32 winners were in the vanguard from halfway.

Trainers

Peter Bowen (3-2-11) has saddled Always Waining to win the last 2 renewals and also trained Dunbrody Millar to win this in 2007.

Paul Nicholls (1-2-23), Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-12) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-14) have all saddled the winner in the past 10 years, though each has been heavily represented.

Irish trained runners (2-10-60) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings though much of that is down to Willie Mullins (1-5-8) who has seen 7 of his 8 runners make the first 5. Charlie Swan (0-2-6) has seen 5 of his 6 runners make the first 7 (other unseated).

Price

No strong trends on the prices.

Favourites (1-4-11) have won just 1 of the last 10, showing a level stakes loss of 6.00.

Summary:            

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 10 or younger (especially 9 or 10yos)

·         Carrying 10-5 or less

·         Officially rated 128 to 141

·         Do not discount horses running from out of the handicap

·         Finished in first 4 last time out or ran in Kim Muir or Byrne Plate

·         Ran in past 35 days

·         Run 4 to 8 times since August and won no more than once

·         Previously won 3 to 5 times over fences

·         Run in 10 or more handicap chases (winning no more than 4)

·         Third, fourth or fifth season chaser

·         Won over 2M 4F+

·         Won at a left-handed track

·         Has contested a graded chase

·         Previously run over the National fences (ideally finished in first 4)

·         Finished in first 6 in Grand Sefton or Becher Chase in November 2011

·         Finished in first 4 in 2011 Topham Chase

·         Previously finished in first 4 in a Byrne Group Plate

·         Tends to race prominently

·         Trained by Peter Bowen, Willie Mullins or Charlie Swan

Triangular was a motionless when winning last time at newbury it had wings 2m6f favvy took it very easy dotted up with the first time T tie spectacular jumping had it won miles out

The horse that fits the profile really well is Fabalu running off 10-00 is a front runner who in the main jumps really well - his Ascot run last time showed him jumping to the left and that cost him first place all ground seems to come to him and his best figure ever was last time when I made his performance 139 - over 3miles leading or disputing only headed in the last part of the race. Running off 127 today he could well be 12lbs well in  

 Aimigale for Sue Smith  is about 8lbs well in and though a mare is a bigun and a real front running stayer

Keep your eye on the one for the future Wake Board who though only 7 and out of the handicap is a very decent animal 

Bob

Aintree the rest of the cards 120412

Not messing about in the Big bucks  opener and a small bet on Smad Place who is the biggest improver in my book  this youngster has speed and pace on its side

2.30 Lyvius has a lot going for it and my each way selection

3.05 has to be Burton Port  


hope to be online for the later races 


enjoy the day 


 Bob

John Smith’s Foxhunters 3.40 Aintree

The John Smith’s Foxhunters  is restricted to amateur riders. In recent years the majority of the winners of this had bypassed the Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase.

 We will know the ground is going to be soft but how soft is the question ?

 past 10 runnings:

9 of 10 winners were aged 9 to 11, though they have accounted for almost 62.6% of total runners.

Horses aged 8 or younger or 13+ have gained no wins and just 4 places from 54 runners.

Breeding

Irish Bred: 4-8-141

French Bred: 3-7-45

British Bred: 3-5-63

Other: 0-0-5

No very strong trends to be found from where the winners have been bred, though French bred horses have done best proportional to their representatives.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start

8 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 runs

9 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days (1 exception was Katarino winning the race for a second year after not racing since the previous year's win)

9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over fences under rules (exception Katarino had not run over fences that season but won 2 point to points)

9 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 wins that season (Katarino had not run that season before winning it for second time)

8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 4 hunter chases (winning no more than 1)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

10 of 10 winners had won a chase at Newbury, Haydock, Fontwell or Sedgefield

Cheltenham Festival

Christies Foxhunters Chase winner: U6U (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing 3FU

You have to go back to 1993 and Double Silk for the last horse to do the Cheltenham/Aintree Hunter chase double.

Only 3 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival. In 2002 the 3rd and 2nd from the Christies Foxhunters finished 1st and 2nd in this but since then all 6 runners that won or placed at Cheltenham to run in this have been unplaced.

Other Races

Previous year's winner (): 251U2U7 (1-2-7)

Walrus Hunter Chase winner (Unowatimeen): 2U3U11 (2-2-6) Had a really hard race and finished walking over the line knackered

Lambourn Open Day 6th April Hunter Chase winner (Offshore Account): 1F (1-0-2)

Clonmel Festival Week Maiden Hunters Chase winner (Boxer Georg): 3 (0-1-1) ran at cheltenham hunter prominent runner who will appreciate the ground

Ubique Hunters' Chase winner (Gwanako): 3 (0-1-1)

Queen Mother Memorial Hunters' Chase winner (Gwanako): 44 (0-0-2)

pointtopoint.co.uk Hunters' Chase winner (The Polomoche):  5U (0-0-2)

Magnus-Allcroft Memorial Trophy Hunter Chase winner (Fresh Air And Fun): 5F0 (0-0-3)

Betfred "Will They, Won't They" Memorial Hunters' Chase winner (Island Life): F6U (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitelaw Challenge Cup, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the Walrus hunter Chase, finishing 11

Racing Tactics

9 of 10 winners led or raced prominently through the race

Only Katarino in 2005 won after being held up. Typically in these one lap races over the National fences you do need to be up amongst the leading 9 or 10.

Trainers

Robert Waley-Cohen (2-1-4) trained Katarino to gain 2 wins and a 2nd.

Paul Nicholls (1-1-11) has seen 7 of his 11 runners complete the course and 6 of those 7 finished in the first 5.

Dr Richard Newland (1-0-2) is the only other trainer represented that has won the race since 2002.

Willie Mullins (0-1-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners finish in the first 4 and he saddled Boxer Georg of finish 2nd last year while Tracey Bailey trained Offshore Account to finish 3rd, both horses are entered again this year.

Irish trained runners (0-5-45) have gained no wins and just 5 places from 45 runners. They have been responsible for 5 favourites in that time.

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced between 3/1 and 8/1

In 2010 Silver Adonis won at 50/1, the only double figure price winner since 2000.

Favourites (2-3-11) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 1.67. 5 of the last 10 beaten favourites were trained in Ireland (all Irish favourites beaten).

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 9 to 11

·         Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 40 days

·         Won on 1 of last 2 starts

·         Won 2 or more chases under rules

·         Won over 2M 4F+

·         Won a class 3 or better chase

·         Won 1 or 2 chases this season

·         Run in 4 or fewer hunter chase (winning no more than 1)

·         Won a chase at Newbury, Haydock, Sedgefield or Fontwell

·         Bypassed the Cheltenham Festival or didn’t complete in Christies Foxhunters

·         Finished in first 3 in Whitelaw Challenge Cup or Walrus Hunter Chase

·         Tends to race prominently

·         Trained in Great Britain

·         Priced between 3/1 and 8/1


This is a lovely hunter chase and I really do like the animals that have won from the front this distance and provisional selection is Silver Adonis who loves to front run loves the track and has a touch of class and i have to have two in the race so will include Unowatimeen who has had time to get over that hard race

Red Rum Handicap Chase 120412 4.15 Aintree

Red Rum Handicap Chase takes place at Aintree today 12th April. It is a 2M grade 3 handicap chase that usually attracts many of the horses that contested the Grand Annual at Cheltenham. All 10 winners were aged 6 to 9, though that age group represented almost 82% of the total runners. You have to go back to 1993 for the last winner aged 10+

.Other Races

Previous season's winner (Silk Drum): 27P9R (0-1-5)

bettor.com Social Betting Handicap Chase winner (Song Sung Blue): 6815 (1-0-4)

At The Races Virgin 534 Novices' Chase winner (Kumbeshwar): 2 (0-1-1)

John Parrett Memorial Chase winner (Takeroc): 3 (0-1-1)

Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase (Astracad): 4P7 (0-0-3)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Grand Annual last time, finishing 3F151

4 of last 6 winners ran in a Newbury chase over 2M to 2M 4F that season, finishing 1231Jockeys

Claiming jockeys: 3-2-26

Non-claimers: 7-23-129

The winners in 2011, 2010 & 2008 were all ridden by claimers and only one claiming jockey rode in the 2009 renewal, on a 40/1 shot.

 Summary:            

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 6 to 9

·         Ran in past 35 days

·         Posted highest chase RPR in last 2 outings

·         Carrying 10-8 or less

·         Officially rated 129 to 142

·         Run no more than 13 times over fences

·         Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

·         Won a class 3 or higher chase

·         Won a chase at a left-handed track

·         Novice chasers do well (never finished outside first 4 in a completed chase)

·         Has previous Aintree Festival form

·         Ran in the Grand Annual Chase last time

·         Finished in first 3 in Newbury chase over 2M-2M4F this season

·         Trained by Alan King

·         Priced 10/1 or shorter (favourites do well)

Its a hard nut to crack and the stats are against previous winners really but Silk Drum gets in here light and tounge tie looks a big plus even for the second run

I never give up on Song Sun Blue and dropped back to 2miles is not a minus in my book - has won left handed and a very good each way bet today off this mark

great day Monday - good races today 100312

Dont have much time as its hospital day today - great racing yesterday and enjoyed the chat on twitter - have some decent animals running at Fairyhouse and believe it or not one for the 
Aw at Southwell  16.35 Bosses Destination who I expect to go one better today


 3.20 at Pontefract am staying with Botti and his Mezzotint in this race


4.30 Fairyhouse watch out for money for Gentle Alice its one for in running bridle horse on song shes way above the class in the race
5.00 there are three to consider - Leah Clare Much Acclaimed and McCoy mount The Way we Were to my mind there is very little between any of them but Leah Clare  just getting the nod this morning


see you later guys 
 Bob

Irish Grand National 090412 4.50 Fairyhouse 3m5f good to soft

The Ladbrokes Irish Grand National  at Fairyhouse today (always takes place on Easter Monday, )


8 of 10 winners have been Irish bred though they have represented 79.1% of the total runners. Proportionally French bred horses have superior record, having gained 2 wins and 5 places from approximately 11.2% of the total runners.

It has been a race for outsiders recently with 5 of last 8 winners going off at between 20/1 & 33/1.

Favourites (0-3-12) have gained no wins and just 3 places in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Irish or French bred
• Aged 6 to 9 Last year Organisedconfusion was the first 6 yr old to win since since Rhyme ´N Reason in 1985 and the trend last year was for horses to have a prep race over hdles  was rated 132 had never won on good ground ridden by Nina Carberry carried 9-13 12/1 NOTE the first horse home carrying more than 10-09 finished 11th!
• Carrying 10-8 or less (no more than 10-13)
• Officially rated 130 to 140
• Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
• Won over 3M+
• Run at least twice this season ; run in the past 50 days
• Won a chase at right-handed track (ideally Fairyhouse, Gowran or Punchestown)
• Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
• Contested no more than 9 handicap chases
• Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
• Ran in this season’s Paddy Power and/or Thyester Chase
• Ran in a Grade A or B h’cap chase at Leopardstown since Christmas Day
• Finished in first 4 in last season’s Hugh McMahon Novice Chase
• Finished in first 5 in 2011 or 2012 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham
• Trained in Great Britain or
• Trained by D T Hughes, A Moore or M Hourigan

Cross Appeal won the Paddy Power 92K (last race) with conviction from some of today's entries is up 10lbs for that run but I made it at least a pound more he achieved that day - is the perfect profile horse for the race 

Of those who finished behind him Groody Hill Impressed the most as he was inconvenienced by going left handed - Mccoy stays on board for today and is not penalized for that run

More Impressive though was the attempt by Four Commanders (6yr old) in the cheltenham 4miler where Allee Guarde (ahead of it in the betting fell)

Alfie Sherring is a massive price for Jonjo - impressed on the good ground at cheltenham - but Mccoy could have had that mount

whats not to love about Paddy Pub ? its two recent wins have been impressive at the end of the race is a genuine left or right handed track animal is up 6lbs for its win last time and its hdles before that  - Managan does not get the ride But Doyle has ridden it to win and still is a pound well in

Out Now was second to Seabass who is a very very good horse indeed and would have been closer to Seabass but for a hard hit of the 4th from home - a swinging bridle horse who will improve stepped up in distance and with managan taking this ride instead of paddy Pub makes me really attracted to it it ran to 134 that day and gets in today at has won right handed on a sharp track and todays easier bends will help it - my main bet in the race

 So the blues are my selections for the race - good luck whatever you fancy hope you enjoyed the read up 

Bob

POWERS GOLD CUP TRENDS 2012 8th April 4.30

8 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 7/1

Jadanli at 25/1 in 2010 has been the only winner not to come from the first 5 in the betting in past 10 years.

Favourites (1-4-10) have won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.

 So Just How good is Flemenstar to win today?  well its form on good ground is not great but trainer is confident he will act on it came second on its first chase to Bog Worrier and has done nothing but improve - Rathlin is a very exciting horse that swings off the bridle  over hdles on good ground is a course winner over fences and distance has not been challenged - worry is the reported problem before taking on Flemenstar last time  - of the others False Economy has always had this race as its target won a decent chase and loves this ground - its hard to say just how good it is or if its had enough experience to beat the two above but USA bred animal who is fresher than the top two and Geraghty rides  Call The Police was second in the  Dr. PJ Moriarty Novice Chase (First Installment was the winner ) and Ruby Walsh gets the ride. 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Finished in first 3 last time out in past 60 days

·         Finished in first 3 on their chasing debut

·         Won 1 of their last 2 completed chase starts

·         Won 1 to 4 times over fences

·         Won over 2M 4F+

·         Won a graded chase (or won just once over fences)

·         Won a NH race worth 19K+

·         Won or placed in a graded hurdle (rated 129+ over hurdles)

·         Had first ever run in a bumper, pt to pt or hurdles race

·         Ran in the Racing Post and/or Drinmore Novice Chase

·         Finished in first 3 in Irish Arkle and/or Dr. PJ Moriarty Novice Chase

·         Trained by Noel Meade

·         Priced between 7/2 and 7/1

I am going to side with Rathlin  to win this 

 Bob

Saturday 7th April

Fag end of the jumps start of the flat and hopefully you have one or two to back


Haydock is a funny old meeting  for horses that have had enough and some getting ready for Summer jumps
 2.25 Etxalar under Campbell has its ground and I expect money for the horse who is still largely unexposed track and ground will suite it fine hit so many fences last time at Carlisle but a strong fancy today
2.55  DontPaytheferryman is well worth an each way bet to me  at the current prices and a BTL if he goes off in front he is largely written off over anything further than 2miles but in my mind that's wrong and this 56 days since last run to me means Ellison is targeted the race for him. has performed to this level off marks of 126 and I rate him a pound well in today Monarchs Way has a mighty chance for Furguson -flat bred animal but this trainer has all the angles on this horse now and would not put you off and Hawaii Klass is also in my notebook half brother to harry Flashman who does all its best work at the end of the race 
4.05 haydock Eyre Apparent must be watched for any money at all has taken its time to acclimatize but yard says he is happy bonny mood at the moment and the place market at least looks as if its too big at present


 Kempton is hard to crack but Botti yard in full swing and plenty of entries will be backing any that are punted by the yard who are in cracking form Appealing is running in the 3.45 and is entered in the 1000gns so a big run should be coming from this one for the yard


3.15 the 2milers 6 out of 10 winners have been fav or close with a 40/1 last year the only big upset will simply stay with Activate for a small interest bet - goes really well fresh has won well here and this time of year 


Newton abbot that serious horse Qoubilai will win the 3.40 and  17.40 at Carlisle will not back against Kris Cross to win that one 


Roll on Aintree - will be putting up the trends and stats for the meeting early next week - good luck all


 Bob

Dire racing Thursday 5th

Update on the Visual Form book - 1 point level stakes profit so far in 2012 from the 8 systems provided free with Visual Form-Book is now +826.66 at industry SP (+595.00 at estimated betting exchange SP).

click to enlarge 

 Bob

racing for their feed - and follow by Email ! 040412

Poor racing and enigmatic animals on show for a while with the last of the big meetings starting next week - keep the powder dry for Aintree and Punchestown where we will get some thrillers
just one for me today and thats in the 2.50 at Exeter Leopard Hills is  a funny lil animal but has got its best ground today and though has only won a seller and a class 5 its a fast ground animal that has tumbled in the weights and that's ideal now its back on fast (its best profile) and Hutchinson takes the ride for Alison Thorpe.
Edit - pppffffff what a waste of space that post was -The selection is woefully out of sorts and simply did not fire or inspire at any stage of the contest -- Bob
Email to save you logging in and out to see whats going on!
To all of you who are already on the email list  I have added a button that you don't have to press! 
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cheers - good betting


 Bob  

Sunday 1st April and all quiet on the pastie front

have been checking the results of the naps table and am surprised to see there is an inquiry into the self posting of the "self"  priced notification of winning nags -- brought about no doubt by the fact that Martin has won it from John C - congratulations will be held back until the investigations by the boys in blue are published in the Sun on Sunday.
A Pale faced winner from one of  his island's (tax break") retreats was unabashed and declared he has nothing to hide - any administrative errors can be layed at the door of the proletariat and that he always ate pasties from a little corner shop - he know some of his staff by name - and that his family though related to royalty it was most certainly not by means of using a cook as a surrogate. 
He strongly denied the suggestion put up by his publicist that he may have been drunk when he posted a 100/1 winner and claimed that as he was drunk most of the time that was a slur on his capabilities.
leaving his mansion, besieged by your reporter, he refused to be parted from the female jocks on both arms as he bottom shoved them into his favourite Bentley he handed me  large wodge of cash which proved to me to show his innocence was beyond the pale - only driving over my foot took away the magic of the day 
long live the king of the napster's say I from my comfortable private hospital bed 


Bob