CHESTER CUP 090512

I don't like backing at Chester !!!  the going stick today is 5.7 which is the softest ever recorded here to my knowledge

the 2.35STANJAMES.COM CHESTER CUP (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) Winner £62,250 CH4 

Soft 2m2f147y will take some getting and that's the truth - will stay with my 
confidence  on Graham Lee and Goldie to get a tune 

 out of Merchant of Dubai who  is a genuine soft ground horse 

who will if ready love every yard of the distance

 well weighted and   not run since Decemeber - this has been her target

 see you on twitter 

 Bob

wait for the currugh Bumper 070512

The racing today is pretty well after the lord mayor show and one horse that caught my eye in the multi line up for the day is in the bumper and I am keen on its chances at the current 30s betfair.(I actually expect it to go higher and is a cracking bet for the three places 
The animal absolutely slayed Howaboutnow  swinging off the bridle on g/soft ground when it was brought over from Ireland to Ayr. Crawford riding for his mum - Took keen hold, in touch, steady headway over 4f out, led over 2f out, pushed out final furlong, comfortably (tchd 11-2) not a whip layed on him at all very confident ride No pace early on and all bar the favourite were keen to get on with the job. YOUNG PALM, who has plenty of size and scope, travelled very strongly. He was travelling the better when moving upsides and came clear in the end for a smooth success. The first two were a long way clear and he is a good prospect. With the Irish bumper division very strong and dominated by the Willie Mullins yard he might well return to these shores.
Howaboutnow led all the way for an easy vicorty next time and then went for the aintree bumper 


He is up against it today but think his run was very underestimated by the pundits he has his ground and they have put him in against the more heavily fancied Mullins yard today which will also affect the market disproportionately based on ability. 


 Lee has some very interesting rides today on the flat but they must be watched for a gamble. 


Barzalona has the ride on Jamarjo for the 5.00 Kempton 2mile race it will have my money riding with it as it is a kempton AW horse tackling 2miles for the first time with at least 6lbs in and bred from Marju is a def staying type and breed  
 good luck today  see you on twitter


 Bob 

What do you think of the Guineas form? 070512

Having nailed my colours to the mast and saying that Camelot would not be able to win because of the distance and selecting French Fifteen for my nap I was not pleasantly surprised to be wrong yet again
 The splits for each furlong were as follows: 15.24 (from a standing start), 12.12, 12.25, 12.39, 12.60, 12.18, 12.53 and finally 13.16. So while the pace slowed just a touch at around halfway, it was essentially an even gallop. The final time confirmed the ground was really soft with this the 11th slowest of 211 races to be run over C&D since 2005.

There were three separate groups early on, before the main action unfolded middle to stands´ side. However, the four runners who stayed towards the far rail all finished in the first eight, including a couple at massive prices, suggesting they may have been on the best ground. As such, it makes sense to treat this as two separate races.

Dealing solely with the main group for now, only time will show thetrue worth of the form but it looks solid enough as the highly promising CAMELOT just denied a Prix Djebel winner, with the pair clear of a horse who had defied a penalty in the Craven, albeit that one was a bit below his best. Next home was Fencing (Camelot more than doubled his superiority over that rival from their meeting in the Racing Post Trophy), and then came the Greenham winner.

Camelot became the first horse to do the Racing Post Trophy/2000 Guineas double since High Top in 1972, his rider´s brave decision to challenge between horses probably making the difference between victory and defeat. The horse had to be game to see off the runner-up´s strong challenge, and is more straightforward than many of his late sire´s progeny. While the soft ground put the emphasis on stamina, undoubtedly helping a horse who is bred for middle-distances, he had the quickest sectional in the sixth and seventh furlongs, and certainly didn´t just outstay his rivals. He won´t need this ground when going up in distance (already won twice on good), and should be hard to beat in the Derby. A top-price of 5-4 is justified.

French Fifteen is a tough, progressive colt who had conditions to suit, but he has a little way to go if he´s to make a genuinely top-class miler considering he was denied by a rival who is likely to need further.

Hermival had a similar profile to 2010 winner Makfi, including the same sire and trainer. Unlike his erstwhile stablemate, this one didn´t win the Prix Djebel, but he received the same RPR of 110. It´s doubtful, however, that he stepped forward as expected as the form of the quartet who raced far side looks ordinary by the standards of this race.

The final time was just over five seconds slower than when Trumpet Major won the Craven over C&D. He´s not considered a soft ground horse (flopped on testing going in last year´s Solario), so it´s no surprise he was below form, and he probably did well to finish so close.

Camelot gets a mark of 123P from timeform but hes better than that in my opinion once it steps up in distance and giving french fifteen that mark  is more realistic I rate Camelot at least 127p once it gets further.

 And onto the 1000 Gns - I was on twitter with Ben and Mark and when Gray Pearl who I knew to be an excited and maybe too crazy an animal made them wait that long the race became just so unpredictable - the stalls delay upset too many and the result questionable - it was all about young fillies getting het up as the delay mounted - you could see from the pictures so many with ears flat back trembling and reverting to Herd animals with a predator around - Homecoming Queen had the best of it - not only has she had more experience than all  of them (remember my caution about a horse needing 14 runs to be a racer) she was walking around like an old dog who has seen it all before. I jumped on at 34s betfair just before the off.  This looked a decent renewal of the first fillies´ Classic, with plenty appearing to hold every opportunity of gaining an extremely valuable success and five of them came into it unbeaten. However, not many could have predicted the way the race would play out.

There was a lengthy delay to the start when Gray Pearl got herself wedged underneath the stalls when almost all the runners had been loaded. The stalls were emptied so the handlers could help the prone Charles Hills filly, meaning the remainder stood behind the stalls for some 25 minutes. Sadly Gray Pearl had to be put down. Interestingly, the first two home hadn´t gone into their berths when the incident occurred.

Exploding out of the stalls, HOMECOMING QUEEN set some really strong fractions and gave the impression she´d tee the race up for something behind. Ryan Moore was relentless in making his mount go forward and it soon became apparent that nothing was going to catch what had looked the stable´s second string. She is exceptionally well bred being a half-sister to the top-class Dylan Thomas and the unbeaten Queen´s Logic, who would have started for the favourite for the 2002 renewal of this race, so from that perspective the information was all there. That said, she´d taken eight races to get off the mark as a juvenile and didn´t give the obvious impression she´d be following in her siblings´ footsteps. One can only rate the performance positively until it is proven otherwise, but she is small in stature and one wonders if she´ll maintain her form throughout a long season, considering this was her third outing of 2012. The jockey felt the filly will get further.

There was a sizeable gap back to Starscope, who´d won a maiden here in October but then, wearing a hood, improved to be fourth in the Nell Gwyn on her next start, when making up quite a bit of ground from off the pace. She tended to wander here when the field started to make some inroads on the leader but stayed on nicely to claim second. There must be a slight suspicion that she isn´t a completely straightforward ride, talented though she is, but this was her first big test and she may come on for it mentally. She´s certainly in the right hands to have a big season.

Maybe was a perfect five from five in 2011, finishing with a Group 1 success in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh. Everything about her suggested the 1m trip wouldn´t cause her any particular problems and she moved nicely in the chasing group while others needed motivating. Things looked perfectly set up for her but, like all those beaten, she didn´t find that extra gear and couldn´t close the gap. She is undoubtedly better than this, something backed up by the way she travelled, and can readily be given another chance wherever connections send her next.

The Fugue won a 7f maiden here, in which she and the runner-up pulled clear, so was an intriguing runner from a top stable. Seemingly the choice of stable jockey William Buick, she got behind before making ground past rivals when they came to the end of their tether. Bred to be better over further, she appeared to run a decent trial for the Oaks but was struck into behind and John Gosden is going to monitor the situation with that injury before making plans, so bets for Epsom should be put on hold until positive news is known.

 Bob

1000 Guineas takes place at Newmarket 6th May

The Qipco 1000 Guineas takes place at Newmarket today Sunday, 6th May. Run over a mile for fillies only, it has thrown up a few surprise results in the past few years, with Ghanaati in 2009 winning at 20/1, and Blue Bunting at 16/1 last year. Jacqueline Quest at 66/1 was first past the post in 2010 but subsequently disqualified.

 Recent Form

8 of 10 winners won last time

6 of 10 winners were making seasonal debut (other 4 had run just once that season)

7 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (3 exceptions yet to run there)

9 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (exception not run in a class 1 race)

9 of 10 winners won or placed first time out as a 2yo (exception was unplaced in a group 3 on debut as a 2yo)

10 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 8F

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice as a 2yo

9 of 10 winners had won at least twice

7 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on all career starts (3 exceptions only finished outside first 3 once)

The 10 winners had collectively run 46 times, finishing in first 3 in 43 of those 46 starts.

2yo Races

Cheveley Park Stakes winner (Lightning Pearl): 6051718 (2-0-7)

E B F Araafa Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Discourse): 1 (1-0-1)

May Hill winner (Lyric Of Light): 733250 (0-3-6)

Sweet Solera Stakes winner (Discourse): 4235 (0-2-4)

Silver Flash Stakes winner (Maybe): 2 (0-1-1)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo Fillies Maiden winner (Maybe): 2 (0-1-1)

Phoenix Stakes winner (La Collina): 3 (0-1-1)

Moyglare Stud Stakes (Maybe): 507030 (0-1-6)

Fillies Mile winner (Lyric Of Light): 8440350 (0-1-7)

EBF "Makfi" Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Starscope/The Fugue): 40 (0-0-2)

Debutante Stakes winner (Maybe): 070 (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Cheveley Park Stakes, finishing 211

2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 2 French-trained ran in the Prix Robert Papin, finishing 11

Draw

yesterday 2000 gns the speed was with the higher numbers with the first four home only including 1 (drawn in 4) -- today's going is similar and the emphasis on a higher draw must be significant 

last year Blue Bunting (USA)  had not run for 183 days was drawn 16 had three runs winning two and  over a mile at Newmarket last run in October. was 100% in this class of race

Price

No strong trends on prices but favourites have done well recently, winning 3 of the last 5 and show a level stakes profit of 1.50 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Bred outside the British Isles (ideally in USA)

·         Born before 01/04/2009

·         Run at least twice as a 2yo & won or placed on racecourse debut

·         Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)

·         Won last time out

·         Having first run of 2012 or won a 1000 Guineas Trial last time

·         Previously won a listed or group race

·         Won over 6F to 8F

·         Finished in first 2 in Prix Morny, Rockfel and/or Cheveley Park Stakes

·         French trained that finished in first 3 in Prix Imprudence

·         Trained by Jim Bolger

 Dettori mount Lyric Of light has the same profile as last year winner Blue Bunting and well drawn with 100%this class of race. Discourse same trainer  Barzalona ride is the biggest improver 

My Joker in the Lineup must be Gray Pearl who finished only third on the Rockfell and its all about wether they have got her to settle - if they have this huge Filly has real place chances at massive Odds - take a look at her going in the parade and the post 

 good luck today

 Bob

2000 Guineas 2012

The first Classic of the season takes place at Newmarket tomorrow Saturday 5th May when the top 3yo colts do battle in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in recent years with 6 of the last 10 going to horses from across the Irish Sea. Last year Frankel ran out one of the most impressive ever winners of the race and many will expect another clear-cut win from this year’s favourite, Camelot. --Am not so sure any son of Montjeu has an extremely damning statistic to overcome in the 2000 Guineas. Montjeu has sired over 150 horses that have been officially rated 100 or higher. Yet, of all those talented horses, not a single one of them has won a Group race at a mile or shorter as a three-year-old or older in Europe. Indeed, just a handful of them have won at Listed level within that criteria, with one of those being, interestingly enough, Hurricane Fly. It is very rare to have a black-and-white statistic of such notability in the case of a well-established sire and the significance of such a stat shouldn't be underplayed in the case of Camelot. Sure it can win - am not saying that it cant -  its a horse race but the stats say it's got it all to do

Trends for the past 10 years:

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2011	Frankel	3	9-0	1/2F	Sir Henry Cecil	Tom Queally	133
2010	Makfi	3	9-0	33/1	M Delzangles	Christophe-Patrice Lemaire	123
2009	Sea The Stars	3	9-0	8/1	John M Oxx	M J Kinane	124
2008	Henrythenavigator	3	9-0	11/1	A P O'Brien	J Murtagh	123
2007	Cockney Rebel	3	9-0	25/1	G A Huffer	Olivier Peslier	124
2006	George Washington	3	9-0	6/4F	A P O'Brien	Kieren Fallon	127
2005	Footstepsinthesand	3	9-0	13/2	A P O'Brien	Kieren Fallon	118
2004	Haafhd	3	9-0	11/2	B W Hills	Richard Hills	127
2003	Refuse To Bend	3	9-0	9/2	D K Weld	P J Smullen	118
2002	Rock Of Gibraltar	3	9-0	9/1	A P O'Brien	J Murtagh	123

Breeding

Irish bred: 5-10-69

British bred: 4-7-62

American bred: 1-1-39

French bred: 0-2-4

German bred: 0-0-1

7 of 10 winners were by a sire that finished in the first 4 in the Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (2 other sires had won group 1’s over a mile: Lockinge & Breeders Cup Mile & other had won the English & Irish Derby). - Beware looking at Colts bred from Montjeu let it temper your betting is my advice

9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner over 6F to 8F (exception by Galileo)

10 of 10 winners were born before 6th April

Recent Form

8 of 10 winners won on their first run as a 2yo

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 86+ on debut

8 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut at Newmarket, Curragh or Gowran Park

8 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times before (2 exceptions were unbeaten)

9 of 10 winners had won 2 or more races

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (8 won)

10 of 10 winners had their last run in August or later

7 of 10 winners posted highest RPR last time (3 exceptions did so on penultimate start)

9 of 10 winners had won at group level (exception placed in a group 2)

6 of 10 winners were making seasonal debut (4 exceptions won a recognised Guineas Trial)

9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F

4 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (1 exception was placed on only run at the track, other 5 were having first run here)

2yo Races

National Stakes winner (Power): 21051257 (2-2-8)

Dewhust winner (Parish Hall): 148221 (2-2-6)

Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 00013 (1-1-5)

Washington Singer Stakes winner (Fencing): 01 (1-0-2)

Gimcrack Stakes winner (Caspar Netscher): 187 (1-0-3)

Futurity Stakes winner (Dragon Pulse): 2482 (0-2-4)

Mill Reef Stakes winner (Caspar Netscher): 200 (0-1-3)

Champagne Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 020 (0-1-3)

Superlative Stakes winner (Red Duke): 3580 (0-1-4)

Criterium International winner (French Fifteen): 0 (0-0-1)

Racing Post Trophy winner (Camelot): 060 (0-0-3)

Tattersalls Stakes winner (Crius): 0808 (0-0-4)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 233

3 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 131

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the Railway Stakes

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the National Stakes

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 12

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Coventry Stakes, finishing 61

3yo Trials

Greenham Stakes winner (Caspar Netscher): 306621 (1-2-6)

Craven Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 971600253 (1-2-9)

Leopardstown 2000 Guineas trial winner (Furner's Green): 14 (1-0-2)

Prix Djebel winner (French Fifteen): 8571 (1-0-4) won well - Towards rear, steady progress on outer from over 3f out, ridden to challenge over 2f out, led just over 1f out, hung left inside final furlong, kept on and Peslier is formidible on his visits here

All 4 winners that had run that season won on their only start in one of the 4 races.

Interestingly, perhaps, only three of the last ten runnings have been won by the home team. Ireland has claimed six, and France one. Given the percentage of runners per nation, I’m tempted to lean heavily overseas when looking for the winner.

Now what about the merit of the recognised two year old trials, and especially the Racing Post Trophy?

Well, if you’re heavily involved in Camelot at a short price, look away now..! It is forty years since a Racing Post Trophy winner won the 2000 Guineas the following season, and that’s not a stat I like when considering 5/4 about last year’s winner of the Racing Post Trophy.

Further speed concerns are raised when you consider that since 2001, three Racing Post Trophy winners have gone on to win the Derby (High Chapparal, Motivator and Authorized), and one, Brian Boru, has gone on to win the St Leger!!!

A significant body of evidence points squarely towards Camelot being more of a middle distance horse, not least of which is his breeding. more of that in a second.

For those of you who are value hunters, you may also like to know that well beaten horses from the Racing Post Trophy have been known to run into the places in the 2000 Guineas at monster prices.

Dubawi Gold finished 9th in the RPT, and was then second in the Guineas last year at 33/1. Norse Dancer was only 7th in the RPT, but bagged third in the 2000 Guineas, at no less than 100/1 (!) in 2003. And Redback was 3rd in both races, his Guineas bronze coming at 25/1, in 2002.

Trumpet Major is interesting. I think his easy win in the Craven last month is the strongest trial form this year, outside of France at least, and albeit that he probably has less improvement than many of his rivals. Nevertheless, it’s hard not to like the course and distance success that day, when there was give in the ground and a headwind. Was impressive in winning the Craven over course and distance. This is clearly much tougher, but there will be no worries about trip, track or ground, and he has place prospects.He was giving his rivals three pounds there, but more materially perhaps was that he seems to have the kind of action that implies soft ground will be right up his street. True, he did finish last of four on his only run on soft, but I’m sure that was much more to do with him running – and winning – just nine days beforehand. Certainly, it’s hard to blame the ground for an eight and a half length form turnaround with Talwar, from a previous run on good to soft.

Power has yet to be outside the first two in five starts, including a win and two runners up finishes in Group 1′s. Whilst he’s more exposed than his stablemate, Camelot, he also brings a more reliable level of form to the table. However, there must be doubts about his ability to get the mile here, as he’s looked all out at seven furlongs and has shown plenty of speed earlier in his career.

I can see him running a big race in the Group 1 sprints this summer, notwithstanding a certain Black Caviar who might get in the way there!

Fencing was third in the Racing Post Trophy as mentioned, and that bare form wouldn’t give him a winning chance here. However, looking at the overall balance of his form – notably his win from Telwaar in a Listed race – he ought to run a nice race, without perhaps being good enough.

Talwar is a really interesting supplementary entry. It costs £40,000 to supplement a horse for this, which is the same amount a horse wins for finishing third here. Clearly, connections are hopeful of a podium finish.has an excellent chance of outrunning his market position – eleventh – and squeezing into the money. Not only did he win the same Lingfield Listed race that last year’s 2000 Guineas second did, but he also finished at the back of the Racing Post Trophy, as last year’s 2000 Guineas second did.His win in a Lingfield Listed race may not seem very good, until you consider that it was the race won by a certain Dubawi Gold last year, before that one ran closest to Frankel in the 2000 Guineas.

His form on soft ground is proven – he won an aforementioned Group 3 contest, beating Trumpet Major amongst others – and there’s an argument to suggest he was running when ‘over the top’ towards the end of last season.

At 40/1, he’s one rag I’d be happy enough to have a couple of shekels each way on, in a race where eight of 52 horses priced between 25/1 and 40/1 have been placed (and two have won) since 1997.

 Casper Netscher (Last year the brilliant Frankel became the first horse since Wollow in 1976 to win the Greenham and follow up in the 2000 Guineas. The form of this latest running looks relatively weak, and the time was 0.76 seconds slower than the Fred Darling, but  last year´s Gimcrack and Mill Reef winner, looked to win in spite of the testing ground.

Hermival, who for me is the one most likely to improve in the field. Mickael Delzangles does not bring them over for fun, and has run just twelve horses in the UK in the last seven years.

They included Makfi, 33/1 winner of this in 2010; Chineur, 7/1 winner of the Kings Stand Stakes in 2005; and Shankardeh, 6/1 second in last year’s Lillie Langtry Stakes.

(Hermival also carries the first string colours of the owner, whose other horse is the better fancied – in the betting at least – French Fifteen).

So watch the 2.30 to see where they go and make your choice - good luck


 Bob



Reading up on my own post on the big race and studying the animals on the forecast g/soft ground am not convinced the draw will be as significant today as the pace seems right across  the lineup. I can neither lay nor back Camelot  its two runs have been impressive and O'Brien has put his son up but drawn out in the 16 box of 18 runners he will have to move across or stay with the fast paced Power who will certainly tow him along but that one has raced against a field of this size and knows what it takes to win here - Jamie Moore takes the ride and if this as a match bet (will look) would take my chances on Power coming out on top. from that side of the field Peslier has French Fifteen and I cannot see why there are offers in the range of 14/1 for this animal.


 Of the rest you have to look at the low drawn Boomarang Bob who I did not mention in yesterdays post Last year´s Norfolk runner-up (reportedly picked up an injury after finishing second in a Chantilly Group 3 in July,) he ran a stonker over 7flngs at newbury   he was untested beyond 5f, but this was a fine reappearance. It´s hard to say he didn´t get the trip as he was entitled to need the run. John Hills said the colt will be aimed at a Guineas, and mentioned both Newmarket and France. this one could welll be the darkest horse in the race and run into the place market at massive odds 


 my three therefore are Power - French Fifteen and  Boomarang Bob


 good luck today 


Bob

Photo finishes Grrrrrr

Poor month for the satchel really beaten in photos for the Grand national -  Scottish grand national  and yesterday for the Vfb stand out bet at Kempton   Kakapuka 50/1 (Took keen hold, raced wide first 2f, prominent, driven over 2f out, closed with pack over 1f out, challenged last 100yds, pipped on the post (op 40-1)) 


But that's racing for you when the fixtures are all over the place and heavy heavy ground .  enjoyed racing at Sandown and there is nothing like being on the track even though the crowds were down  and the weather icy .


I saw some exhilarating animals for the future not least of them Grey Mirage and Sanctuaire   which are firmly in my nag me list 


I am not much interested in the  VFB naps table but it was very very close fought affair for April well done to  so many  top guys ending up with such a startling profit (though my animals would have slayed them if the photos went the other way!)


Exeter over the sticks (The fence and open ditch past the stands will be omitted along with the last hurdle in the back straight) and Yarmouth on the flat are both predicted as heavy ground with more rain to come  Sedgfield evening meeting is heavy ground.


Such ground and end of season makes mockery of the form book and having to make judgement on too many factors outside of the profile.


Will have my usual few quid on the markets but its all BTl for me till my luck turns!


 Bob