THE HENNESSY GOLD CUP ---PRE RACE THOUGHTS Bobt

Keep your fingers crossed

The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury this Saturday 27th November 3.05

Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase The mighty Denman who won it in 2007 and 2009 is looking to become the first horse to win the race three times. His presence in the race would mean that a maximum of only 8 horses would run off their correct handicap marks. Currently the track is covered to combat the forecast ground frost – they are hopeful – let’s be- it’s the race that will throw up so many good horses

Let’s face it this is the race winners of the best chases from now on come from this race including the Grand national. When Denman won of top weight he was just awesome - to win it twice spectacular. He tore up the trends. Before then we looked at the Charlie Hall as a guide – we looked for horses that had won last time out and we looked for low weight animals with great success. The last 5 years has destroyed that way of looking at the race.

So Saturday will be a test of the trends that have been distorted by a great animal - Denman is looking to become the first ever horse to win three Hennessy Gold Cups. Denman has twice carried top weight to victory and if he runs it is likely that more than half the field will be running from out of the handicap.

 The only previous horse to win back to back running’s was Arkle.

 Are you saying Denman is as good as Arkle ?  I say No 

So why?

 In 50 running’s of this race –

  8 winners (CARRYING 10-00 DEAD)

 10  winners (CARRYING 10-5 T0 10-9)

   6  winners ( carrying 10-9 TO 11-00)

13  winners (CARRYING 11-00 TO 11-05) 

  7  winners (CARRIED MORE THAN 11-08 TO 12-00)    

  4 (CARRIED 12-00 +)

AGE (6 yr olds(10) 7 yr olds(19) 8 yr olds(9) 9 yr olds(9) (10 yr olds(2)   (11 yr olds(1)

 So lets look at the last 10 years  

year	winner	age	wgt	sp	trainer
2009	Denman	9	11-12	11/4F	P F Nicholls
2008	Madison Du Berlais	7	11-4	25/1	D E Pipe
2007	Denman	7	11-12	5/1	P F Nicholls
2006	State Of Play	6	11-4	10/1	Evan Williams
2005	Trabolgan	7	11-12	13/2	N J Henderson
2004	Celestial Gold	6	10-5	9/4F	M C Pipe
2003	Strong Flow	6	11-0	5/1J	P F Nicholls
2002	Gingembre	8	10-13	16/1	Mrs L C Taylor
2001	What's Up Boys	7	10-12	14/1	P J Hobbs
2000	King's Road	7	10-7	7/1	N A Twiston-Davies

Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (exception was placed in previous year's Hennessy)

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last completed start

7 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer chases

9 of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences

7 of 10 winners were second season chasers

still 2 days to keep the snow and frost away - ground was no worse than soft on the  hdles track and G/soft on the chase track - covers going down again as I type!

12.30 Newbury

There is a nice dutch back bet in the 12.30 Newbury:
Super Kenny
Pennellis

At current odds, to make a £50 profit would require an outlay of £24.70 on Super Kenny @ 3.7 and £16.60 on Pennellis @ 5.5 = £41.30 in total to make £50. I'll have that anyday.

Other back bets I like:

2.00 Uttox South Bank
3.40 Uttox Jan Jandura

Lay bets:

2.10 Newb Zarrafakt
3.30 Taun Sir Winston (max 6.0)
5.40 Wolv Edinburgh Knight


that's it for now folks .......

12.30 Vfb analyser and stable notes Wednesday 25th Nov

 from Martin  - yesterday 

"I have a query on the Visual Form Book. It concerns how many runs you include when analysing. If you have systems - you need to set the maximum number of runs to 14.... however, especially for Handicap Chases, I find it better to analyse say 30 runs (sometimes more). The figures, as a rule, change dramatically. I was hoping that some VFB users would give me their thoughts on this".

 I agree on your statement regarding the number of runs to analyse - first off i set to 14 runs to see what animals fit different analyser systems -- (discounting the flat for a moment) I  then run the systems qualifiers for the full days card (takes a minute) - go to those animals that qualify  and look at the race. If still interested on a cursory glance highlite those in the race until all races have the yellow indicator.

Lets consider anything that is outside of novice company beginners chase  sellers etc.

Any animal that is shown to have poor performance on the predicted ground but within the betting and comes into the notes field or qualifier deserves the change to 20 or even 30 runs to be analysed.

 as an example take a look at the 12.30 at Newbury the conditional jockey  championship hdle.

Top Mark is an 8 yr old - taking its last 14 runs it shows only 21% strike rate on the predicted heavy ground and quoted at 31/1 betfair --- set the analyser to include the last 20 runs and that strike rate becomes 40% with runs on heavy ground  (Ayr heavy off a mark of 88 class 4 2miles )  with 100% strike rate in this class. has won with a layoff of 59 day - 

as the day progress I will be monitoring the price and as its with the king yard for a place market bet - its a hold up horse and therefore will go bigger in running -This is a decnt race with loads of potential good animals in it

 two have tongue tie first time Shalamiyr ( analyser animal Linamix mud lover sired) has only run on its preffered sire ground but has got it today has run to a mark well higher than the 108 is off today recording a 115 on soft ground  - but is a dodgy bet or dark horse -  


and Sure Josie Sure ( analyser animal with Pipe who has brill first time headgear/Tt record)  Pipe Stable tour - The Perth form has been boosted, with runner-up Nearby winning the other day. She has filled out even more over the summer, so it’s taking a while to get the weight off, but I hope further progress will see her up to competing in some of those valuable Listed races for mares. There’s one at Wetherby at the end of the month, but she’d need plenty of rain to go up there. She’s one I’m particularly looking forward to.-18/10/10.

I take this as an example only to show that the card and market is analysed by me - but this race has taken place 5 times and won 4 times by Hobbs yard
Shalamiyr  - this is what Hobbs stable tour gave on this animal - 

We don’t know what to make of him. He hasn’t progressed over hurdles and it was a similar story in his bumpers. I worry about his attitude; it may be due to the sire, but when you get a good Linamix it often turns out very good. He’s ready to run any dayand all I can say is he’s very well and gives me the impression he’s improved for a summer break. Trip-wise he’s a puzzle; over 2m or 2m1f he appears to want further, but the three occasions we’ve stepped him up in trip he hasn’t got home. - 11/10/2010.

 you pays your money you make your choice!

 Bob     

Lays for Wed

Just a few today....

1.50 Weth Riguez Dancer

2.25 Weth Dhaafer

3.55 Chep Tiger Line

That is all and am hoping for a better day than the last two.

TGLL

Visual Form Book query

Hi Bob, all

I have a query on the Visual Form Book. It concerns how many runs you include when analysing. If you have systems - you need to set the maximum number of runs to 14.... however, especially for Handicap Chases, I find it better to analyse say 30 runs (sometimes more). The figures, as a rule, change dramatically. I was hoping that some VFB users would give me their thoughts on this.

I urge anyone that wants to make money from racing, that doesn't subscribe to a classy form book, to think again. These are essential tools in fighting the bookmaker/exchanges. I have an idea of how Bob sorts the columns for different races - excellent stuff, although I tend to use the same data for all races (it works for me).

I agree 100% with JohnB ... both a quantative and qualatitive approach is required to make a consistent profit, and surely that's the name of the game. A 40% strike rate would be great and if you are aiming for this, first rule, concentrate on stakes races. You spoke of retirement - surely Bob's been there and done that lolol sorry mate!! I had to get a dig in :)
How are you and things John - great to hear from you again my friend.

A question for Bob - can you remember the days of the VFB forum? Do you recall how and why Mark closed it? I seriously thought that was only temporary and I will be writing him later (on other matters), although I'll have a little dig at him over it.

Macroman - Bobt

Am sorry that JohnC (Macroman) has departed and posting on the brilliant  Racecaller forum - his number crunching is being well received there as it was initially here .

 He feels my approach to number crunching  is too derisory and I do not give it the correct amount of respect - well that may be true in part I don't think you can relate numbers to a racehorse in the way that he does  nor have I ever found it profitable. I do however think it was a valuable contributor to the blog and will miss it .
  I feel its  shame that he has left us before he has shown the profit/loss derived from his system and hope he  will come back at some time to do just that.


Those readers who would like to continue to follow JohnC  please log in and sign up to Racecaller  http://www.racecaller.com/   its a brilliant site with some great posters  


 BobT

Martin goes from strength to strength

Dammit - up late and missed Napping Bonnie Prince Blue by the time I've done everything (and VFB was so slow updating the results) - I got started looking for my Nap and spotted Bonnie Prince Blue only to look at the clock and see the race was running already - dammit and it won................

However, have a look at my Macroman threads on Racecaller - I have a growing fan base of guys & gals who simply love my system and seem to do the right things with the information I post

Tuesday Lays etc......

After yesterday feeling an bit cautious but my lays aren't!

Shall see how the day goes.

Ling 12.50 A double Lay on Nautical Approach and Sumdancer Both Lost

Ling 1.20 Laying L'Accordioniste Won

Sedge 2.00 A double Lay on Al Dafa Lost and Marsh Warbler Won

Ling 2.20 A double Lay on Brackloon High Lost and Recession Proof Won

Sedge 2.30 Laying War Party No Lay Now Won

Ling 3.20 Laying Sun Quest odds too high for me...... and Slew Charm Lost

Sedge 3.30 Laying Spice Bar Won

All dependent on non runners, odds etc

TGLL

Denman - the hat-trick hero??

Dual winner Denman heads 20 horses standing their ground in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday at the five-day stage.

Paul Barber's 10-year-old, trained by Paul Nicholls, carried top weight of 11st 12lb to victory in 2007 and 2009 and is again burdened with that lofty burden as he attempts to become the first horse to win this prestigious handicap chase for a third time.

Only six other horses are in the handicap proper and they include his stablemates Neptune Collonges (10st 8lb) and Taranis (10st 4lb). Currently 4/1 ante post favourite, this does not represent a value bet, however, it reflects the fact he has won this twice before and laying is out of the question.

The Queens, Barber Shop (69/1) (who doesn't stay the Gold Cup distance) is better over this 3 miles and could be worth a small bet. The Tother One (47/1) (another Nicholls runner) ran a cracking 2nd in the Charlie Hall and if he jumps well will run a big one. - prices are Betfair btw

Monday Lays

Ffos Las 1250 Laying Fist Fandango and Won ( Free as a Lark) No Lay Now....odds too high...... in favour of Katchmore to Win

Kemp 1.00 Laying Dee Dee Williams Oh dear.....Won

Lud 2.50 Laying Celticello No Lay, too high for me now..... Lost

Ffos Las 3.00 Laying Kilcrea Kim Won

Ffos Las 3.35 Laying Wingull Lost

Kemp 3.45 A double Lay on Marino Prince Won and Tocatchaprince (Odds just a bit too high for me)

All dependent on odds and non runners.

TGLL (Oh dear what a day!!!!, At least most losers were short or very short!)

The National 2011 bobt

Ladbrokes  cut the Troytown winner Jack The Bus to 40-1 after he scored for Murphy at Navan an hour later. "Jack The Bus displayed the kind of guts that would make a tilt at Aintree a possibility, but the handicapper is likely to play a huge role in future plans for him," said Hayley O'Connor of Ladbrokes.

waves in the National market with Becher Chase runner up Royal Rosa inserted at 40-1 with William Hill, who make the third, One Cool Cookie, 50-1.

Grand Sefton winner Frankie Figg received a quote of33-1 with Ladbrokes and 50-1 with William Hill for the Aintree showpiece.

William Hill inserted fast-finishing Betfair Chase runner-up Tidal Bay at 50-1 in both their Gold Cup and, more surprisingly, Grand National markets.


 bob

Here ya go - have a great day

Off Time	Course	Q's	Name(1)	M1		Name(2)	M2
12.05	AINT	-	YES TOM(IRE)	27800		ART BROKER(IRE)	25200
12.35	AINT	-	PRIVATE BE(GB)	33400		STORMIN EXIT(IRE)	23000
13.10	AINT	1	COMHLA RI COIG(GB)	22900		HERON BAY(GB)	22300
13.45	AINT	-	MERIGO(FR)	23000		I'MONCLOUDNINE(IRE)	19200
14.20	AINT	1	FINE PARCHMENT(IRE)	36200		CAVERS GLEN(GB)	34300
14.55	AINT	1	WHEREVERYOUGOIGO(IRE)	32700		DON'T RUSH IT(IRE)	31400
15.30	AINT	-	WITH GRACE(GB)	48300		JAYA BELLA(IRE)	39700
12.15	KELS	1	LADY BLUESKY(GB)	35200		BEAU D'ARGENT(GB)	23700
12.45	KELS	1	ASHAMMAR(FR)	34900		PRIDEUS(IRE)	33500
13.20	KELS	-	ROLE ON(IRE)	35200		GLINGERBANK(IRE)	25500
13.55	KELS	1	LOCKSTOWN(GB)	36500		MORE EQUITY(GB)	34200
14.30	KELS	1	BOB'S DREAM(IRE)	24300		QUICUYO(GER)	20900
15.05	KELS	-	WILLIE HALL(GB)	35200		IDENTITY PARADE(IRE)	29200
15.40	KELS	-	THE TIDDLY TADPOLE(GB)	34300		FAIRLEA BOB(IRE)	32800
12.30	NAVA	-	CARACAL(GB)	27700		PEAKS OF FIRE(IRE)	24400
13.05	NAVA	1	BALLYBURKE(IRE)	32400		FULLY FUNDED(USA)	25600
13.40	NAVA	-	FERRY POINT(IRE)	30600		DERINLAUR(IRE)	27700
14.15	NAVA	-	GAGEWELL FLYER(IRE)	29700		EIGHT IS MY NUMBER(GB)	27800
14.45	NAVA	-	ACROSS THE BAY(IRE)	18800		FOR A FINISH(GB)	17900
15.15	NAVA	1	THIEVERY(GB)	38500		HANDTHEPRIZEOVER(GB)	34500
15.45	NAVA	-	KALANELLI(IRE)	21100		BRAVE BEAUTY(IRE)	20700
12.25	TOWC	-	MALINDI BAY(GB)	39900		KAITUNA(IRE)	29500
12.55	TOWC	1	PHAR AGAIN(IRE)	35200		ABBEY DORE(IRE)	34800
13.30	TOWC	1	BIG TALK(GB)	35600		ANTOELLA(IRE)	27300
14.05	TOWC	1	WOODLANDS GENPOWER(IRE)	37800		PACCO(FR)	31500
14.40	TOWC	-	MANSHOOR(IRE)	25200		DOCTOR KILBRIDE(IRE)	21300
15.15	TOWC	1	SMOKING ACES(IRE)	29800		UNCLE TOM COBLEY(IRE)	22300
15.50	TOWC	-	STANLEY'S CHOICE(GB)	38700		TECH ZINNE(GB)	32100