Bangor off and Fontwell Dodgy!

Well on a day where the cards did not look great Bangor was called off at 8.30 and there are still some patches of frozen ground at Fontwell (heavy rain expected) so it looks more like the Aw guys will be the only ones backing today.
 will work on the hope that Sandown and Chepstow will be ok tomorrow  and get the trends up later as soon as the cards are ready from VFB


 Bob

Sire analysis in National Hunt racing

Hi everyone

I've promised Bob a Blog post for a long time now....so here it is!

Some of you may be aware of me either through my own Blog - Narrowing the Field - The Blog - or possible by purchasing one of my publications - 'Narrowing the Field - Using the Dosage Method To Win at National Hunt Racing'.

Essentially I'm a trends and stats man like Bob. One of the methods I use looks at Breeding, and more specifically sires, in National Hunt racing, an area I feel is much overlooked in the jumping game.

The Dosage angle looks at breeding from a numerical stand point and helps us establish the probable speed and/or stamina capabilities of any horse.

However, Dosage isn't the only angle I use to assess if a sire's offspring are suitable for a race. I also keep track of a number of National Hunt sires with detailed analysis of their offspring's preferences, such as track, going, distance e.t.c....

This kind of approach obviously highlights negative as well as positive angles but it's important to get a grip on the negative angles so that we know when to avoid certain runners or if you're into the laying side of the game it can also highlight value lay 'bets'.

To give you an idea of the kind of trends I'm interested in finding take a look at the stats for the sire SMADOUN and his offspring that go over fences - 

48 runners | 12 winners | 25% win Strike-Rate | +£3.96 Level Stakes Profit

Impressive enough on their own but we can improve the stats even more by looking at only his runners that run over distances of 2m5f and further - 

23 runners | 7 winners | 30% win Strike-Rate | +£16.73 Level Stakes Profit

A greater strike-rate and LSP just by adding a simple little filter. 

*It must also be noted that 10 of the 23 runners hit the top 3 for a 43% top 3 strike-rate.

These are relatively small sample sizes we are looking at here but if you think about having a vast array of these types of angles in your punting arsenal then you can start to see the potential this method has.

Apologies for the short-sharp post tonight but hopefully it at the very least gives you a little something to think on.

Happy punting

Ben (NTF)

The workers need to work!

Good Afternoon,

Just to let you know I'm not ignoring you, taken the hump for Bob's great tipping at teh end of teh month.....teh day job has gone haywire & there isn't an awful lot of time for the ggs .....I'm post when I can & willbe following you guys...good luck, & looking at the rain in Kent you are going to need to look for hevy ground specialists!

John

1.20 Southwell

At Southwell-AW, in the 1.20, HARLECH CASTLE has three previous C&D
wins here - scoring off a high Handicap mark of 85 back in February. 
He is back down off a mark of 71 today, and is now the only runner of
the day for the Jim Boyle yard - who have a 20% strike rate here.

Going

Any going reports young Bob?

Welsh Grand national - the 2009 race revisited and methodology

Hi Guys with the best chase we have seen yet this year thought would remind you of how I use VFB and how on this occasion it put up a big priced winner
 first though for anyone who is interested this is what I do for all big races - sound a bit complicated but it starts with the trends of the races over the previous 10 years - (will publish them for the big event tomorrow night or Friday morning)

 so this may sound like a lot of work but each stage is simple - LOOK at the ten year trends Download the  VFB cards Friday night by all means but it’s the ground that seems the greatest criteria and full analysis must be left to Saturday morning to get the correct going report from the course correspondent the racing post.

Set the page to track distance and going (include distance plus) – as this race is at Chepstow I do not worry about the Course orbital as Chepstow is a very fair track for left or right handed animals.  I ignore speed and master ratings for this handicap type      

At Friday stage running both analyser and betfair prices (which will delete any non runners at this time.) Notes on each horse and previous running’s can be investigated – delete each animal that falls outside of the criteria of the ten year trends. This is a rough guide only and no great drastic cuts should be made – print off the reduced card and retain for Saturday morning – re update book to get the full field of runners.

Then to the card  Saturday morning after re setting the going to the racing post reporter - highlight every runner that conforms to the criteria (there is a lot of yellow on first run) (This year I will suspect the run in last 50 days for obvious reasons but still include on first run.) Check last night’s print out against the highlighted animals this morning.

At this stage I feel I can safely delete with greater confidence and the card will be reduced mightily on this run alone – LOOK AT EVERY HORSE YOU HAVE HIGHLITED you should now be able to look again at your notes and cross reference to the Racing post to see what they thought of the run your considering – look at the Vfb independent handicap and your own handicap mark to see what level they consider it ran to compared to today’s official rating. 

ok so you dont have the trend yet but above is last years VFb card  from which the pin fell on the winner  much to my delight (click to enlarge)

full trends coming watch this space and will print out the card saturday morning

 be good 

 Bobt

2.10 Southwell

I like Talesofriverbank in this competitive handicap hurdle. Has been starting at massive prices (50/1 l.t.o) and is a lot shorter today.

Quick edit: Ortega is a massice price at 79/1 on the exchanges

POst race edit: If it is outpaced in this low grade I hold no hopes for the future - maybe it was watching the cricket all night!

The Welsh Grand National Saturday

THE threat from frost to Saturday's Coral Welsh National meeting at Chepstow appeared to have been lifted on Tuesday giving hope the fixture can go ahead at the second attempt.

Rain is the overriding feature of the latest weather forecast, which could give way to some sleet or snow into Friday, but temperatures could reach 10C by the end of the week to leave the track wet but frost-free, according to the Met Office. 

Keith Ottesen, clerk of the course at Chepstow, said on Tuesday: "We had a little bit of rain today but for the rest of the week the indication now is that we shouldn't be under threat from frost or snow which is good news.

"Things have settled down and its seems unlikely to be cold, so we are happier with that situation."

The going at Chepstow, where the entire track has been covered since December 31, was described as soft, good to soft in places on Tuesday.

 will be putting up the trends for this great race by Thursday night and update Saturday

Happy New Year

Hi.

The racing today is c*** but I have one that should make us some money (I hope).

In the Leicester 1.20, ARALDUR is the only runner in this race with a
future Grade 1 race entry, and should go close at this level for the
Alan King yard.

the weather outside is freezing 2.30 am

 This is late or early as you might judge at 2.30 am but the ole boy has just got home and ready for his bed! if its as cold at the tracks in the country then its curtains for anything but the AW 

 Night all !


well the weather has relented and the tracks are ready to run at 10-15 this morning - the only non runner will be bobt but the feel of it Lingfield is down as heavy ground and when its heavy there  should be another category - bottomless  - set the analyser for a distance plus column 
 the cards are in fact better than at first glance and will play a few today
 most are analyser animals - starting off with 3.00 Hereford - Dictalina is my main chance here for an each way bet its third behind Belflower Boy under this claimer shows its on the way back to the form it achieved last January and proved to me he can go this distance this ground - the 16/1 makes it very attractive
3.10  Ayr a much more tentative selection in Bene lad who looked to be as if he had some sort of style when I went to a rare trip to Kelso - yep he fell but was not a tired mistake just the one that he could not afford back over hdles he has a couple of pounds in hand on this slightly less testing track today.
3.20 Lingfield and heavy ground will make this hard to get - Love the improving profile of Billy Murphy who impressed me at both chepstow and folkstone last (bradburne riding again today is a plus though he may just have been out ridden that day by Felix De Giles he will stay and stay and has a good profile for this year that he hasn't had before.
3.50 Lingfield - this is the one that I just think is a beautiful mare who does not want to come second - a real lil tiger Just Beware only 5 runners so she's a win bet for me - woul have maximum confidence if this was a mares only race but up against the boys today will make for quite small stakes


 Good luck all


 post race's - thank the lord of lil punters for Bene lad - led all the way !

Sunday 2nd January - racing is on

Hi Guys and hope the feeling is coming back into your limbs.
the racing today does not inspire me - am running analyser as I type  - only three naps put up on the VFB yesterday tells it all .
 Haven't Heard from that Reprobate Martin and that's a worry - hope the bordello he frequents will allow him out now he's completed all the safety checks. 
Folkstone is just down the road and hoping my girls will emerge soon to take the ole boy out for some fresh air but that's looking a bit unlikely so it may be a betfair afternoon
The welsh grand National is on Saturday the 8th and currently 32 runners still in but expect that to reduce quite a bit and hopeful this race will not be called off again as heavy frost still forecast Thursday onwards there are frost warnings for tomorrow too so we not clear yet.
Have you put sires into your analyser? this may be one of those daft questions that everyone will know about -but for you out there who still Dont I would urge you to look at the top ten sires at the very least and bung them in - can be found on racing post site and does not take a minute or two - same thing applies to Irish raiders who have a great success rate at certain tracks  and Trainers who have a great success rate with headgear first time 
gives you an edge,
And while am at it - is there an angle you have apart from these that you want to tell me about?
So today?
 Plumpton offers some decent first time chasers and horses to keep an eye out for am most interested in the 1.05 however - Tullimore Dew ran a corker round here to be second to Medermit  last time staying on so well at the finish and you can see Medermit credentials by its run yesterday at Cheltenham -but am interested in what the market says for - King Ozzy is a better horse for this forecast g/soft ground -and Marston is riding out of his skin.  Went really well in a tuff soft ground 2m Lingfield chase beaten 1/2 length by Noble Crusader  who came from nowhere under Tom Scudamore the ground stopped Ozzy and Warren Marston looked over his wrong shoulder thinking he had the race run (watch on atr) will improve for this track and added furlong. A five horse race with a newcomer Georgio Quercus from the Henderson horse under McCoy (was a better hurdler than Ozzy thats for sure) that combination  will keep its price down. its been kept on the go by running in that bumper for jumpers at Kempton last week.
 good luck all


post race - A good little novice chase and a fine round of jumping from TULLAMORE DEW, whose second to Medermit over this C&D last time had been given a nice boost when Alan King´s grey ran so well in the Dipper Chase at Cheltenham the previous day. Soon sent to the front, he made every yard, and while the result was in some doubt when they turned into the straight and Giorgio Quercus drew up alongside, it´s probably fair to say he was still the likelier winner. He deserves a step up in class now, and his sure-footed jumping should hold him in good stead. The Centenary Novices´ Handicap Chase (the old Jewson) at the Festival might be under consideration for him, and he´ll have one more run beforehand.

New Years Day

Bob, the 2.50 at Exeter....agree its deuced difficult!

How about Just The Job ok its up 18 lb (ignore the claimer he rode it last time out) has won easily (16l+) in the last two appearances, so allowing 3lb a length has 48lb in hand, less 7lb for a rise in class , less the 18lb gives 23lb in hand over the horses it beat last time.......there is of course not a lot of comparative data to go on.....the given mark is probably about right but the horse has shown a huge improvement.......but will it continue?

Mic's Delight lost by 3 lengths to Points West last time out (and had a claimer) so I can't have him

Castlerock was not particularly fluent at Aintree under AP last time.......

I would plump for Just The Job as I think he has more to give

In the 1.30 at Chel I have gone for The Sliotar but am worried that he is a fragile horse ran one in 2009 and 2x in 2010.......I couldn't bring myself to back Maljimar having fallen the last 2 times I would worry about confidence, I do agree he has been a class act

So, my Scoop 6 selections are:

1.30 Chel The Silotar PU

2.00 Chel Medermit (nap) 2

2.15 Exet Salden Licht 1

2.35 Chel Taranis 1

2.50 Exet Just the Job

3.10 Chel Kilcrea Kim

Good luck all!

John

Sunday Jan 1st

Afternoon all....let us hope that there is a good start to the years racing....

A few Lays, that is all...very tentative.

Fake 1.35 Flying Squad

Fake 2.10 Amuse Me

Shall Post later TGLL

Cheltenham/ Exeter 1st January 2011

Date looks well odd - 
1.30 first race on the box for channel four and it has a host of old favourites - think the favourite Buffalo Bob has a  great chance on the evidence of its run at Newbury  and will stay the 3miles in this forecast g/soft ground. has the profile of previous winners off this mark but its more a watching race really - only 1 horse has won at greater than 10/1 and the older brigade hold sway and with the best field i have seen for this race with old champs running I really do like the big price on offer for  Maljimar - has too FF in its latest runs at aintree but can easily brush these aside on its brilliant form at Cheltenham and its second to Witchita Lineman by a head off this mark

2.00 a real competitive race and difficult to call for me 4 favs in 10 runnings with preference for a horse that has course form in the better races  this is a place market race with some real contenders not in the top of the market - these include - Othermix and Simarian - any money for these long priced animals will be significant in my opinion - I really cannot see the winner  - Medermit jumps superbly in the main  but cant see why it refused at Huntingdon when tanking along  has still got it all to prove- as have the rest - my money therefore goes on Hells Bay under Joe Tizzard who was a lucky second  2m 3flngs (Mr Thriller fell in front of him going well at the second from home) to Time For Rupert - that was a bloody good run giving the winner 5lbs and travelled like the winner till his stamina ran out over 3m 1f here  the time before g/soft - has the right age weight and profile to win this and money from the current  20/1 should give an indication but the yard does not bet a great deal
2.35 really good race that takes some reading but Tartak has got in off a very good mark judging by his run in the Peterborough chase at Newbury (poor old Twist Magic!) his track for does not inspire though and as a front runner he may be the ideal back to lay candidate - keep an eye on Hey Big Spender another in and out performer who just did not fire in the hennessy (bounced after his great run at Carlisle)  this track suits him and joe takes the ride today - the stable is quietly confident of a big run.
3.10 nightmare race for me with the younger stars in the making and pin falls on Viking Blond who tried to front run here with  smashing display of hdling and has Brennan riding today - the dark horse has to be the three times winning  Kilcrea kim under Johnson an ex pointer who looks a solid stayer and at the age of six fits the profile of a horse going places


 Exeter - expect the going to soften up from the predicted g/soft - 
2.15 cannot for the life of me see why Saylontyre is a current mark of 14/1 has run to its mark every time and is not penalised to much for its win here  Isabel rides it well and she is a really good pilot - will do for me 
2.50  nothing in this race for me so hope you can find one!


 Bob


 RESULTS -A fine day for me and as impressed as hell with HELL'S BAY WHO SIMPLY TANKED UP PULLING A BUS - MADE A SILLY MISTAKE THE LAST-- (that's enough of capitals) - A really competitive renewal of the Dipper, run in a good time, 0.93sec quicker than the decent handicap that followed, and a nice boost for both the Arkle second-favourite Finian´s Rainbow and RSA Chase favourite Time For Rupert, as the race went the way of HELL´S BAY, who´d finished runner-up to those horses in his previous two starts. he looked the winner down the back straight that's how easy it was going

A two-horse race from the second-last, the winner made a mistake at the last which gave the runner-up a chance to close, but Hell´s Bay was always just holding himoff. He was given quotes around the 14-1 mark for the Jewson Novices Chase, the new race at the Festival, and that looks the obvious target on this showing. took the twenties and he finished at 16/1 - if you dont put these notes in your VFb you Dont deserve to have it!

 And doubling up on Tartak made it the best new years day of the year (so far)A high-class handicap chase and as usual a competitive event. The pace appeared sound and it produced a good finish, but the time was just under a second slower than the preceding Grade 2 novices´ chase.TARTAK, who won the rearranged PeterboroughChase in a first-time tongue tie on his previous start, had not previously won at this track in four attempts but had run well. With the tongue-strap on again, he disproved the theory that he only wins on flat tracks by overcoming an early mistake to finished best of all up the hill, snatching the prize from the game runner-up. He is now confirming the promise he showed as a novice chaser two years ago. He will return here for the Ryanair Chase at the festival, with the Ascot Chase beforehand and the Melling Chase at Aintree afterwards.

 Bob

Happy New year everybody - kick off with Cheltenham

Well guys guess your either still wondering why you sent so much time getting the current headache and whether the joke about the llama and the hypnotist was as funny to the girls as it was when you heard it at the pub. 2010 cycles off into the past

A even better 20011  than your wildest dreams to you all. Health Wealth and Happiness lots of fun lots of winners and great company be all for the taking.
 have a great new year

love from all the Taylor Family
 Bob

Crunch Day VFB naps table for December 2010

Forgive me for being more interested in the Vfb naps table with so many in it and the lurkers are in command methinks -  am turning my attention to Warwick and the 2.20 (forecast soft ground) and a cracking 3mile chase
 top of the market is McCoy on the filly Rate Of Knots and Mr Big under Peter Toole  - it should be a fast run race and both animals are in my book with loads of notes on praising them for the distance and ground - they met last time at Towcester over 2m6f both behind Bobby Gee and both will improve for the run.
 Am making up my mind on these two and which I shall nap with the preference for the gelding at this moment. I love Mr Big for one of the most honest jumpers in handicaps and think his time has come - has better for right handed but won well at Chepstow (which is an easy track for a right hander) and this extra distance will play to his strengths Toole is a claimer plus and the horse can give me the edge - Warwick has some of the same characteristics as Chepstow without the climb to the line and that will suite Mr Big Well. 


 already posted up on the board is Annimation (2.50 Warwick) who also has a lot going for her and will carry some of my money today. This filly could easily take the napster to the top of the table 
 good luck all - this is what the Vfb is all about on the last day of the month


Result - yippeeeeeee

1 Mr Big 5/1
2 Rate Of Knots 11/4 
3 Arnold Layne 5/1 

10 ran Distances: hd, 15l, 3½l
TIME 6m 24.10s (slow by 22.10s)

Jockey: Peter Toole
Trainer: C J Mann

WIN £5.60 PL £1.70, £1.50, £2.10
Ex £14.00
CSF £19.88

standing for the top 10 in the naps table Vfb

I Dont think I can remember such a close finish with two days racing to go - its anyone's race at this stage and to be honest Taunton is my voodoo track - though am publishing the top 10 places only the guys behind are not out of it at all 
 Looking through the Vfb does not install any confidence in me  but have to put one up and am probably going to Ireland for my winner good luck everyone (including myself !)

Standings December 2010
Tipster	Wins	Runs	Strike	LSP	POE
roberttaylor03	2	6	33%	+8.75	+145%
JohnB	6	11	54%	+8.73	+79%
John	3	10	30%	+7.50	+75%
SELECTTIPS	5	13	38%	+5.83	+44%
PJC	1	1	100%	+2.75	+275%
MichaelH	2	7	28%	-0.42	-6%
diamondperth	0	2	0%	-2.00	-100%
MartinL	0	3	0%	-3.00	-100%
JohnC	5	23	21%	-3.96	-17%
Cornalba	1	9	11%	-4.00	-44%
MarkS	0	4	0%	-4.00	-100%

yesterday review newbury 291210

Well you could not see a lot on the replays  because of the fog but a good card and Selecttips  got his Backspin home at 5/1 not sure how good the form is but worth noting this race was won by Denman in the past and this years Hennessey winner Diamond Harry so its win has to be a notebook entry.
 John B had a corker of a winner in  Ghizao The visibility for this contest was really poor, and it was difficult to see anything. The winning rider described the going as testing afterwards, while Tony McCoy stated it was dead and hard work. This isn´t a race that has produced an Arkle winner in recent years but Ghizao lept the the top of the Arkle market with an emphatic win.


The long walk produced no surprises in Big Bucks who simply did the business under McCoy (how does this guy simply shrug off falls? )  


 the Bumper was hard to gauge and a 50/1 winner in African Broadway might well be discounted but - was the subject of a stable tour comment from Pipe  showed promise in a couple of Irish points in April (still in the lead when falling on the first occasion and narrowly beaten the second time). he came home a wide-margin winner from what looked a decent field. Johnny Farrelly reported afterwards that his mount is a stayer in the making, and he was pleased how he stuck to the task while being on his own down the home straight.

Now your cooking! VFB naps table

wow two days to go and only 2p between the top two tipsters - the rest are well not out of it either!
 There is still some racing tonight at kempton so we wont know till the morning what the state of play is but its the closest nap table ever for the Vfb. 

The Paddypowerpoker.com Future Champion Novice Hurdle bobT

The Paddypowerpoker.com Future Champion Novice Hurdle is one of two grade 1 races that takes place at Leopardstown on the second day of the Christmas Festival (December 29th). It has been won by some top class hurdlers in the past decade, including Solerina and Hurricane Fly, and whatever wins will come into the reckoning for one of the novice hurdles at Cheltenham.
 dont have time to do all the trends today but here is the summary

All 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 but 4yos (who receive a 3lb allowance) have by the far the superior record having won 7 of 10 & 5 of last 6. 2 of 3 winners aged 5 were mares, who also receive a weight allowance.

Price

8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

2 of the last 3 winners have been priced 20/1 and 25/1.

The favourite (3-3-11) has won 3 of the last 10 renewals and show a level stakes loss of 4.56.

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Won last time out or finished in the first 3 in Royal Bond
• Never finished outside the first 3 over hurdles
• Ran in the last 35 days
• Won a bumper or ran in group/listed race on flat
• Trained by Eddie O’Grady, Noel Meade or Willie Mullins
  
  
  Think that this is the most difficult on the card today and am keeping my eye open for the punt that usually comes with this race with an eye on Hangover and  Beautiful Sound