Early thoughts for the day....

The markets won't settle for a while, but I've been through the races and here are my first thoughts.....

BACK bets:

2.20 Leop Made In Taipan
3.10 Font Quel Bruere
3.45 Font Karabak
3.55 Leop Prince Erik

LAY Bets:

3.45 Font Celestial Halo

No posts for a while! I hope everyone is okay!

Cheltenham in a couple of weeks and plenty of trials run/being run. Amazingly, no all weather today! However, we have national hunt racing on awfull ground, at Leopardstown, Fontwell and Towcester. I haven't yet found anything worth noting, although there could be a good lay in Ireland. Back just before racing people.......

Haydock national trial 3.20

When they call the ground heavy at Haydock they mean it  3m4f and a low weight seems the order of the day.Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 7 to 9

·         Officially rated 135 to 146

·         Won or placed last time out

·         Posted highest RPR at a left-handed track in past 2 outings

·         Won over 2M 7F or further

·         Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

·         First 2 in Scottish, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National

·         Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+

·         Priced between 7/1 and 18/1

The ground distorts everything that's for sure but animals who are in good form off a low weight and can stay longer than the crowds in Cairo is what your looking for 

have shortlisted the following 

• Westend Rocker (will love the ground)
• Major Malarky will def stay on his run  at Chepstow
• King Fontain (Course win was very good indeed and just romped clear)
• Sarde - Am very keen on this light weight improving animal - however there are reports that it bruised a foot and missed a week preparation - how it has affected him will be shown in the market. its win at Newbury where it flew the fences over 3m2f under an amateur was brilliant - of a low weight - has only run on heavy twice  but has had feet problems and these seem to be well cured - will do for me 
•  Good luck all

Bobt

TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Well here it is at last and a few non entries but still a race to savour - have given the stats already but with the ground going soft and g/sft in places with fog still expected to linger  attention turns to the good novice Recession Proof who is ridden by Dougie Costello - will love the ground and stays well beyond this distance - off a handy 10-08 this horse does have an improving profile that interests me and can go on any ground - it win at Lingfield just for the run on the AW flat  after its impressive win over 2m3f on heavy ground says this one is at the top of his form.  yep its a big step up in grade but does not have a lot to prove on its profile so far - you will need to stay and handle the ground and this one comes to the top of the picks along with the previous mentioned Rebel Dancer - ridden by that decent claimer Murphy who takes a handy 3lbs (Dougie Costello rode it here last time!) 
these two will do for me in straight win bets - good luck all its a fascinating race
BobT 

TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

THE Totesport Trophy card has been rescheduled for Friday pending satisfactory results from the two post mortems of the horses that died in the paddock before the first race on Saturday.

The rescheduled card will feature the AON and Game Spirit Chases along with the Totesport Trophy, although all races will be run with less prize-money than on the original fixture.

Newbury managing director Stephen Higgins said: "It has been a difficult week so far for all involved with Saturday's traumatic events. 

"Having received confirmation from Southern Electric Power Distribution that the paddock site is safe for both horses and people, we are confident that racing should resume.

"We have been in talks with the BHA and our sponsors the Tote and AON, with regard to rescheduling the remaining races from Saturday's card and it is our intention for them to take place on Friday, 18 February."

 Yippeeee

how deep was that cable?

Newbury was just awful and nothing to say other than it was ridiculous and unforgivable - the explanation of an electric cable  damaged whilst aerating the ground is just unacceptable - aerating? that's at least a fork tyne deep - no cable should have such insufficient cover and should have been in an armour proof sheathing or in the past a duct of old fashioned clay pipe ---
there are special requirements for wiring around and in stables - are they telling us there is no safety precautions on a track?
BobT

 

TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Hi All many thanks for all the kind words since i last logged onto the Blog - Things have been very much more important than racing and its really good to have an improving situation over the last week 
here for your interest is the trends for the big race today on g/osft ground it should be a cracker 
TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) 3.35 Newbury 

The Totesport Trophy Hurdle is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 12th February. The race has had to be abandoned in 2 of the last 5 years through frost!

Trends for the past 10 running’s (1999-2010):

winner

age

wgt

sp

trainer

jockey

get me out of here

6

10-6

6/1

jonjo o'neill

a p mccoy

wingman

6

10-0

14/1

gary moore

jamie moore

heathcote

5

10-6

50/1

gary moore

jamie moore

essex

5

11-6

4/1f

m j p o'brien

barry geraghty

geos

9

10-9

16/1

nicky henderson

marcus foley

spirit leader

7

10-0

14/1

mrs john harrington

n williamson

copeland

7

11-7

13/2

m c pipe

a p mccoy

landing light

6

10-2

4/1f

nicky henderson

mick fitzgerald

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just under 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses allotted 11-0 or more: 4-7-47

Horses allotted 10-13 or less: 6-23-168

Not much to go on as far weights go though horses carrying 11 stone or more have won 4 of the last 10 from less than 22% of total runners.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 145 or more: 1-5-31

Horses rated 131 to 144: 7-19-138

Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-6-46

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run no more than 6 times since August

10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)

9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better handicap hurdle last time(exception Get Me Out Of Here came into the race unbeaten)

9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles

9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)

8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Get Me Out Of Here): P00 (0-0-3)

 Interesting fact is that he had won at newbury on its last run before the Tote (over 2miles in a race for horses in their second season) This year´s line-up featured several with the potential to make their mark in decent handicaps later in the season, and the time was just over 2secs quicker than the earlier Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
This year the most promising run in the same race was Rebel Dancer did well on faster surfaces in the late summer, and had gone up 7lb after falling when giving the progressive Nearby a race at Bangor. Returning from a seven-week break, he was held up before staying on well to chase home the winner, although never looking as if he would get past TOCCA FERRO (one handsome beast) This was a good effort from 5lb out of the handicap, this one fits the profile well

MCR Handicap Hurdle winner (Final Approach): 071 (1-0-3)

This is a horse that can upset the English on its win in the MCR - FINAL APPROACH looked like a bridle horse on more than one occasion. That´s something he couldn´t be accused of now as he ran out a very easy winner of this contest after finding plenty off the bridle. Held up just off the pace, he did get a nice run up the inside when it counted but he didn´t come off the bridle to get to the front early in the straight and quickened up when asked. This was a smart performance by a horse definitely ahead of the handicapper and how much more he can improve is something that will become evident, but he looks a horse from whom there could be plenty more to come. Irish trained runners (2-2-27) have provided 2 of the last 10 winners from less than 13% of the runners.

Price

6 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 8/1 but 4 of the last 6 winners went off at 14/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner.

Favourites (2-3-11) have won 2 of the last 10 & show a level return to a unit stake.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 5 to 7

Finished in the first 3 last time out in a class 2 or better hurdle

First or second season hurdler

Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles

Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season

Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it

Run in the MCR or Stellar Football Handicap Hurdle this season

Trained by N Henderson, P Hobbs or G Moore

 good luck all

 BobT

an apology

Hi guys am really sorry that have not been posting to the blog - have a family health problem that makes a nonsense of wondering if one horse can run faster than another - will be back posting soon I hope - good luck to you all


 Bob

1.20 Southwell

I am going for a shorter priced one today, Army of Stars who looks well treated.

Edit: I can't pick my nose at the moment!

Stupid me!

I had a bad day at the office Saturday, even more so as I was advised to back Tatenan. I fancy 2 horses in one race today, so just a dutch bet for me in the 2.00 Weth Double Eagle and Mtpockets

Edit: Another bad day! Things need to change and fast

Naps table long shot

Am looking at major improvement from Seren Cwmtudu for the naps table - currently 33/1

 - sister to BreninCwmtduw an absolute stayer - she''s upped to 3miles today and the way she won 

at taunton last time says she follows in her brothers footsteps as a stayer on softish ground the

 first pair finished a mile clear of the rest that day. this is a funny ole race with too many 

front runners to have any hanging about and staying will  be the name of the game so am 

hopeful rather than confident

 good luck in the table - and Martin or Mathew ? when are we going to get at least one selection?

saturday racing - ascot big races

Haven't been posting as have been inflicted with the dreaded lurgy ( thank goodness had the flu Jab!)
Think that the victor chandler will go the way of the favourite Master Minded but you will be able to see what he's travelling like - impressive as hell horse that has only one way of winning and gives it away by his jumping - if he does not sail over the first few then a lay is on the cards - each race i have watched with him he gives away his well being - if he hangs in the air at the third or fourth jump then i will put a small lay in. The same applies to the still "novicy" Crack Away Jack who is returning from a long lay off - this is the dark horse in the race and with the way other animals have had to stop and start their races with the weather this one has simply come along with the Cheltenham festival in mind. reported to have had tendon problems there is no money for him but if there is a market move then will become interested as Lavelle and money down will be enough to say its fit enough   This is nothing like the race it was now its graded and not many upsets - Pipe did the trick here with the 12/1 shot Tamarinbleu in 2008 with a horse reckoned to be 14lbs wrong against Twist Magic - had won the Boyles sport before coming to win this - The form book says Master Minded for sure  and  the vibes are strong but have also taken the place on Gauvain  BTL who has a lot of plus points for today - sure he did nothing of note in the re routed Tingle Creek but on his day and the yard starting to show some form.
3.30 and a cracker of a race where Breedsbreeze is all the rage but the stats say be careful on steaming in - only 1 top weight has won this in 10 years - only 2 favourite's have obliged to boot. lower weights  who finished in the frame last time out  The Sawyer won it last year and though a decent horse this time of year has it all to do today off this weight - others to look at include moores Panjo Bear who ran a cracker against master minded and actually beat home Imsingintheblues around here the up in distance is the worry 2m5f looks a trip too far but his form is solid with the 7lbs claimer Josh Moore  and my fancy is a big run from Soulard who is running on ground softer than he wants - a really decent Ascot animal who loves to front run and therefore because of the ground is the best BTL in the race

Ascot - Saturday

1.50 The Mares Hurdle - Caroles Legacy is in my opinion, the best mares only horse and is pretty good value at around 6/4 in this. She wouldn't really want it too heavy (although she has won on bottomless ground)

2.25 The VC Chase - Master Minded should win this, but at odds on I can't have it. There is little to choose between Somersby and Petit Robin. A couple of pennies on the latter for me just so that I have an interest.

3.30 I am already on the favourite Breedsbreeze. Is well ahead according to my ratings and just over 2/1 was value for me.

3.10 Plump

A rubbish day's racing, however, in the 3.10 Plump I do like Massinis Sunset (available at 5/1 with the traditional bookmakers B.O.G). You could do worse as this goes in the bottomless ground.

Saturday racing

All eyes will be on the belated running of the King George (quite rightly) but I like two in the Handicap Hurdle (3.35), and they are Drill Sergeant and Organisateur ... more to come later

KING GEORGE VI CHASE 150111

This year Kauto Star is attempting to surpass the great Desert Orchid (who was 11 years old when he won it for the 4^th time) and win the race for the fifth time. The fact Kauto Star has won the race last 4 renewals does skew the trends slightly. And now –  LETS FACE IT the race has been delayed for the bad weather and horses for this class are trained to the minute for the run - as they have all had another birthday on the first of January they are all a year older than the previous Stats. when you see that no 10 yr old had won at the previous four years meetings  and that Kauto was ten for the original day of the race you have to wonder if he can do especially as there is no ruby Walsh to steer him home ?

 Was NOT impressed with his run at Down Royal in the jwine handicap where Sizing Europe (who is NOT a true 3miler was only beaten on the run in with Kauto being driven out from the last fence)

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-1

6yo: 2-3-13 Kauto Star

7yo: 4-7-21 kauto Star

8yo: 1-4-28  Kauto star

9yo: 2-2-16 Kauto star

10yo: 0-3-11

11+: 1-0-10

6 and 7 year olds have the best record in the race with a combined record of 6-10-34.

ignoring the fact they are allegedly a year older only  (read 7 and 8 yr olds for this stat- The Nightinggale - River Side Theatre -  Planet of sound 

aged 8 or older  these include  Nacarat - Forpaddyplaster  Planet of Sound -Madison Du Berlais - Albertas Run (4-10-65). 

When you see that no 10 yr old had won at the previous four years meetings  and that Kauto was ten for the original day of the race you have to wonder if he can do especially as there is no ruby Walsh to steer him home ?

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (last 9 had won more than 1)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days (1 to 4 times that season)

9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases won on their last completed start

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 of the 2 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+)

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Kauto Star): 54401111 (4-0-8)

Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Kauto Star): P1 (1-0-2)

Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Planet Of Sound): 31 (1-1-2)

Melling Chase winner (Albertas Run): 653 (0-1-3)

Feltham Novice Chase winner (Long Run): 3P6 (0-1-3)

Charlie Hall Chase winner (Nacarat): 526P (0-1-4) – don’t be put off by this stat as Nacarat won this well despite being a complete right handed animal that runs Kempton better than anywhere else 
Ryanair Chase winner (Albertas Run): PP5 (0-0-3)

6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 221111

5 of 10 winners (last 5) ran in the Betfair Chase, (Planet of Sound 3^rd) finishing 311U1

3 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase,( Kauto Star) finishing 321

2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup,(Planet of Sound 1^st) finishing 21

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (4-1-12) has won the race with Kauto Star for past 4 years. (as of Monday he has four entered) Last year he only entered Kauto Star

Nicky Henderson (0-4-9) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-4) have each had multiple placed runners in the race in the past 10 years.

Irish-trained runners (3-1-7) have produced 3 winners and a second from 7 runners. ( Forpaddydeplasterer

Price – 7 of 10 favourites have won (including the last 6) and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 5.56.

There has been only one winner to be sent off at odds greater than 8/1 in the past 10 years.

Conclusion:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: updated because of the jan 1st birthday 

• Aged 7 or 8(Look closely at The Nightingale who takes a lot of stats and beat some really decent animals on his return)
• Won last time out in the past 55 days
• Won over 3M+
• Won a Grade 1 chase (more than one ideally)
• Finished in the first 2 in last year’s renewal
• Finished in the first 3 in the Betfair Chase - Planet of Sound
• Cheltenham Gold Cup winner
• Favourite (priced no bigger than 8/1)
• Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland

The Nightingale won by 11 lengths in a grade 2 2m4f (nichols has always maintained he can get further - In the end it proved a reasonably simple task for The Nightingale who simply seemed to stay on better than any of his rivals in a race ruined really by the withdrawal at the start of Pandorama. He jumped and travelled well and while it took a little time for him to really warm to his task, he picked up better than anything from the second last and drew clear nicely. It was his seasonal debut and he was entitled to need it, but this probably topped anything he had done previously and one would see him as a leading Ryanair Chase contender on this evidence. He certainly didn´t beat any mugs here.

 Planet Of Sound, from the racing post after its run in the haydock betfair chase on soft ground  " Ended last season with a win in the Grade 1 Punchestown Gold Cup, his first try at 3m-plus. Good ground is key to the horse, so it was no surprise to see him struggle to quicken out of this tacky surface, but he had earlier impressed with the way he travelled, and did enough to suggest his Punchestown victory wasn´t a fluke.He´ll also head to Kempton for the King George - a course he´s likely to give the winner more of a race at - and he could easily surprise a few there

.

Nacarat running left handed  haydock betfair chase   conceded the early lead to fellow front-runner Ollie Magern before easing back to the front at the entrance to the home straight. He walked through the third-last but kept gallopingto score in decisive style. Reportedly treated for a shoulder problem during the summer, he was clearly fit enough here but his trainer had left a bit to work on, so there could be more to come from him. He will be targeted at the King George again, a race in which he faded into fourth behind Kauto Star last season, and the return to a right-handed track where he goes so well will suit him. Another bold run looks assured, but he cannot keep affording the blunders.(there are great noises coming from the yard)

 Watch the betting I certainly will not be laying Kauto but he has to be as good as he ever was - there is always that day when the champions legs are just not as good as they were in the past - that first day is the time you get the best price on the young pretenders. The Nightingale will be bigger that the 8/1 on offer in running - Planet wants the rain to stay away Nacarat wont mind either way - With Madison de Berlais and Albertas Run taking Kauto on for the lead the odd mistake that Kauto is capable of could be his undoing (just one last point - Mccoy was the last pilot to have the thumbs up and was considered by the owner as not his personal choice because of the way Kauto has to be ridden!

 Good luck all

 Bob