Bob it was the highest rated and most improved again
John
Thursday, 18 August 2011
Tip Exchange - SOB........
With great excitement I logged on to post my 11-1 winner Best Terms in the 2.00 at York only to find that in my rush I had layed it on the tipping line.............Fortunately I put real money on to win...what a bore, I will have to be more careful.
Quick tips
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from the Hannon yard
We have had another terrific run with the two-year-olds this summer, and all four of our runners at York on day two of the Ebor meeting hail from the juvenile division, so, with £350,000 in prize money on offer in the first two races, hopefully we'll get a slice of the action.
The boss said We run three in the valuable DBS Premier Yearling Stakes, which is a race we always target. Hughesie rides Crown Dependency, who will appreciate reverting to six furlongs, having found things happening a bit too fast for him over five in the Molecomb at Goodwood last time. He was staying on well at the finish and this trip is perfect for him. Magic City has not progressed as well as we would have liked since his explosive debut success at Newbury, but we have been trying to get him to settle and be more than just a whizz-bang two-year-old, and we were pleased how well he ran at Newmarket last time. Moustache won well at Goodwood, having been wrong when beaten at long odds-on at Chepstow, and he is a decent colt, too."
Me ---(Red Alert is the top improver this race and will go on the ground )
We have decided to run the unbeaten Best Terms against her own age and sex in the G2 Lowther Stakes rather than take on the older horses in the Nunthorpe.
The boss said Best Terms is a May foal, so she surprised us by being so professional early on, and, though we weren't sure she would have the pace for the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, Hughesie made the point that you need a six furlong filly to win that race, so we took a chance and it paid off. She has grown a bit since Ascot and is as tough as teak, and, while a penalty makes it that much harder, she won't be far away." BOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMM 14.5 winner from Fire Lilly for the forecast
Me ----(Best Terms is the top improver this race and only the ground could catch her out but she hasnt been on it so who knows) watch out for the horses who are not penalised but ran her very close that day - Fire Lily won a fillies´ maiden on easy ground, but then finished third to the subsequent Coventry Stakes winner in a Listedrace at the Curragh on fast. She was unable to go the early gallop, but picked up in the second half of the race and finished strongly, suggesting she will be more of a threat to the winner in race today - she will love the ground and she sluiced in at the curragh over 6f soft last time chased home by After who really did look good!
The Darley Yorkshire Oaks
The Darley Yorkshire Oaks is the highlight of day 2 of York’s Ebor meeting today18th August. Run over a mile and a half for fillies and mares, this race is the first chance for the older horses to take on the classic generation over the Oaks trip. Older horses must concede 10lbs to their younger rivals.
Below we examine trends for past 10 runnings at York (2000-2010):
Age
3yo: 5-12-51
4yo: 4-4-26
5yo+: 1-0-3
5 of 10 winners were aged 4+ despite them only representing 36% of the total runners.
3 of the 4 four-year-olds to have won the race in the past 10 runnings had run in it the year before (finishing 1st, 4th and 2nd).
4 of 5 winnings 3yos won the Irish Oaks or Nassau Stakes last time
Recent Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 3 exceptions were placed in a group 2, other was unplaced in the Eclipse)
7 of 10 winners posted their highest MR last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 or 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 or more times that season
9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception had won race previous year and both starts that season were against the colts)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions won a group 2, other was 3rd in Ribblesdale on only previous run in group race)
6 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at York (other 4 had yet to run at the track)
Other Races
Irish Oaks winner (Blue Bunting): 11122 (3-2-5)
Blue Wind Stakes winner (Banimpire): 3R5 (0-1-3)
Noblesse Stakes winner (Banimpire): 6R (0-0-2)
Ribblesdale winner (Banimpire): 45477 (0-0-5)
4 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 4812 Wonder Of Wonders and Blue Bunting
4 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora as a 3yo, finishing 1112
3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish Oaks, finishing 111 Blue Bunting won from Banimpire Wonder of Wonder Laughing Lashes and Rhum
3 of 10 winners ran in the Nassau Stakes last time, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Middleton Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in the Pretty Polly, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Breeders Cup Filly/Mare Turf, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Prix de Royallieu, 83
Trainers
British trained runners: 7-13-56
Irish trained runners: 2-1-16
German/Italian trained runners: 1-1-4
French trained runners: 0-1-4
Michael Stoute (4-3-10) has won 4 of last 10 runnings of this race and the record of his first string is 4 wins & 3 places from 7 runners.
Aidan O’Brien (2-0-10) has won 2 of the last 4 runnings of this race at York.
Henry Cecil (1-2-4) and John Gosden (1-2-4) have each trained the winner in the past 2 years and both have seen 3 of their 4 runners since 2000 make the frame.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-5) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race since 2000.
Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter
Super Tassa at 25/1 in 2001 has been the only real shock in the past 10 renewals, all other winners came from first 3 in the betting.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 3.13.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 that won the Irish Oaks or Nassau Stakes last time
· Aged 4+ that finished in first 4 in this race in 2010
· Run at least twice in 2011
· Won last time out
· Ran in a group 1 or 2 last time
· Won over 1M 2F+
· Previously won a group 1
· Previously finished 1st or 2nd at York (or having first run here)
· Nassau Stakes or Pretty Polly winner
Blue Bunting is the fav and fullfils most of the stats VFb top on improvers is Wonder Of Wonders 9 points above Crystal Capplla with Banimpire holding the top blues of the contest -- wait to see if this g/sft ground is confirmed as it was dead ground yesterday
GREAT VOLTIGEUR STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS)
This was an important race in its own right, in addition to being the principal trial for the St Leger. In the past ten years three colts have completed the double, most recently Lucarno in 2007, while another three St Leger winners were beaten in the York race. The same period also threw up six Leger runners-up, all of whom were beaten in the Voltigeur. The dead ground was very much a key point and the ridiculous use of a pace maker by O'brien yet again
It looked a strong renewal, Seville setting a high standard. The pace was ordinary early on, with the bulk of the field ignoring the favourite´s pacemaker Regent Street. Things quickened up at around halfway and they came down the centre of the track in the home straight.
SEA MOON was a highly impressive winner and is a justifiably short price for the St Leger now. Successful off 92 in a handicap over the extended 1m2f here on his belated reappearance two months ago, he had to find a fair bit of improvement on that bare form but this longer trip was sure to suit him. Travelling up well before changing his legs and quickening clear, he powered away for a wide-margin victory.
A half-brother to the 2003 Leger winner Brian Boru, who was runner-up in this race, he hit the line with plenty of running still in him and should have no problem with the extra yardage at Doncaster. With further progress almost assured, as this was only the fourth outing of his life, he is going to be very hard to beat next month. A bit of cut in the ground would be ideal.
Al Kazeem had been kept off the track by a small setback since winning the London Gold Cup at Newbury in May, a handicap which has worked out very well with the next four home winning since. Up in trip and grade, he was never a threat to the easy winner but stayed on from the rear to take second. This was a fine effort from a colt with more to offer at this sort of trip. He´s not entered in the St Leger, with the Cambridgeshire his only big-race entry. The Arc Trial at Newbury next month is a possibility for him.
Seville looked the one to beat on form, having finished second in the Dante here at York, the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris, and was 8lb clear on BHA figures. He came there to show narrowly ahead, but couldn´t quicken up for pressure as the winner pulled right away from him and lost second spot too late on. Deposed as Leger favourite, he is obviously a high-class colt but remains without a win since he scored at Tipperary as a juvenile. It will be interesting to see whether the final Classic remains on his agenda.
Genius Beast, from the yard successful in thislast year with Rewilding, plugged on from the rear of the field past labouring rivals for a never threatening fourth. He has been held three times in this grade since winning Sandown´s Classic Trial in the spring.
This was a disappointing showing fromNamibian, who came here on a hat-trick following gutsy wins in the Queen´s Vase at Ascot and Goodwood´s Gordon Stakes. His rider tried to wind things up in the straight but the response from colt was limited, and he was beaten with two to run. The easy ground shouldn´t have posed him any problems and perhaps this was just an off-day.
The Gordon Stakes third Hunter´s Light was a supplementary entry for this. He improved in the straight to have his chance, but weakened away and appeared not to get home in the ground.
Given another change of headgear, Regent Street went off rather quickly with his rider looking around in the back straight to see where the rest were. The colt predictably dropped away when tackled.
Newmarket maiden winner Thimaar had a lot on his plate on these terms but it was still disappointing that he dropped out so quickly after leading the main body of the field into the home straight. He had been just a short head behind runner-up Al Kazeem at Newbury in April. [RL]
QUOTES: Sir Michael Stoute said of Sea Moon: "That was highly impressive. He is a horse we have always loved. He had a few little niggles in the springtime, an inflammation of the pharynx and we had to take our time. We were hopeful today, he had been working really nicely, but we didn´t expect him to win like that.´
The VFb gave clear indication that Sea Moon was the improver for this race together with the fact it was 6 points clear of the recent winner Namibian it had the form on dead ground it was also all blue on course Msp Lat and Cgl
It looked a strong renewal, Seville setting a high standard. The pace was ordinary early on, with the bulk of the field ignoring the favourite´s pacemaker Regent Street. Things quickened up at around halfway and they came down the centre of the track in the home straight.
SEA MOON was a highly impressive winner and is a justifiably short price for the St Leger now. Successful off 92 in a handicap over the extended 1m2f here on his belated reappearance two months ago, he had to find a fair bit of improvement on that bare form but this longer trip was sure to suit him. Travelling up well before changing his legs and quickening clear, he powered away for a wide-margin victory.
A half-brother to the 2003 Leger winner Brian Boru, who was runner-up in this race, he hit the line with plenty of running still in him and should have no problem with the extra yardage at Doncaster. With further progress almost assured, as this was only the fourth outing of his life, he is going to be very hard to beat next month. A bit of cut in the ground would be ideal.
Al Kazeem had been kept off the track by a small setback since winning the London Gold Cup at Newbury in May, a handicap which has worked out very well with the next four home winning since. Up in trip and grade, he was never a threat to the easy winner but stayed on from the rear to take second. This was a fine effort from a colt with more to offer at this sort of trip. He´s not entered in the St Leger, with the Cambridgeshire his only big-race entry. The Arc Trial at Newbury next month is a possibility for him.
Seville looked the one to beat on form, having finished second in the Dante here at York, the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris, and was 8lb clear on BHA figures. He came there to show narrowly ahead, but couldn´t quicken up for pressure as the winner pulled right away from him and lost second spot too late on. Deposed as Leger favourite, he is obviously a high-class colt but remains without a win since he scored at Tipperary as a juvenile. It will be interesting to see whether the final Classic remains on his agenda.
Genius Beast, from the yard successful in thislast year with Rewilding, plugged on from the rear of the field past labouring rivals for a never threatening fourth. He has been held three times in this grade since winning Sandown´s Classic Trial in the spring.
This was a disappointing showing fromNamibian, who came here on a hat-trick following gutsy wins in the Queen´s Vase at Ascot and Goodwood´s Gordon Stakes. His rider tried to wind things up in the straight but the response from colt was limited, and he was beaten with two to run. The easy ground shouldn´t have posed him any problems and perhaps this was just an off-day.
The Gordon Stakes third Hunter´s Light was a supplementary entry for this. He improved in the straight to have his chance, but weakened away and appeared not to get home in the ground.
Given another change of headgear, Regent Street went off rather quickly with his rider looking around in the back straight to see where the rest were. The colt predictably dropped away when tackled.
Newmarket maiden winner Thimaar had a lot on his plate on these terms but it was still disappointing that he dropped out so quickly after leading the main body of the field into the home straight. He had been just a short head behind runner-up Al Kazeem at Newbury in April. [RL]
QUOTES: Sir Michael Stoute said of Sea Moon: "That was highly impressive. He is a horse we have always loved. He had a few little niggles in the springtime, an inflammation of the pharynx and we had to take our time. We were hopeful today, he had been working really nicely, but we didn´t expect him to win like that.´
The VFb gave clear indication that Sea Moon was the improver for this race together with the fact it was 6 points clear of the recent winner Namibian it had the form on dead ground it was also all blue on course Msp Lat and Cgl
Wednesday, 17 August 2011
My OLBG selections
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2.00 York
A cracking sprint to get the meeting under way, I have plumped for Kanaf who appears well drawn, but wouldn't want any more rain. Wasn't beaten far off this mark l.t.o and was eased when beaten (the stewards cup)
The Great Voltigeur Stakes Wed 17th York
The Great Voltigeur Stakes the opening day of the York Ebor meeting. A group 2, run over a mile and a half for 3yos only, it is generally considered as one of the best trials for the final classic of the year, the St Leger, with Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno all pulling off the double in the past 10 years.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
8 of 10 winners posted their highest MR last time out
6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (4 exceptions had finished in first 3 in group/listed race over 1M 2F+)
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a listed or group race(exception won maiden last time)
6 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a group 1
0 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-2) has saddled a winner and a runner-up from his 2 runners in this since 2000. The 2 winners since 2000 to go off bigger than 6/1 were Youmzain in 2006 at 12/1 and Monitor Closely in 2009 at 28/1.
Favourites (3-4-10) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings at York but show a level stakes loss of 3.32.
Verdict
Saville Racked up list of near misses in big races since 2yo maiden win, finding one too good in Racing Post Trophy, Dante, Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris; tries hard and sets a clear form standard.There should be little fear that Sea Moon will get this distance and Namibian has already proved it with his win at Goodwood so spectacular ( Sarroor's Hunter's Light ran a cracker into third that day from a long long way back and Dettori will get to the track for this one) The dark horse is Gosden's Thimaaar who has never run in this company but has performed very well indeed. it looks like tilting at Windmills but Gosden record in this race is right up there winning in 2007 and is (1- 0 -4) for the event Gosden quote after that last race "Thimaar ran well behind a nice colt by Galileo last time out at the July festival. We decided to step him up in trip this time and that, with the ground, has worked."
If you Like Namibian then you have to like Hunters Light who has a 3lbs pull for 3 lengths which is not enough but watch the race he really did not have enough room 2 flngs out when he started his effort
Held up in touch in last trio, ridden and effort just over 2f out, headway under pressure to chase clear leading pair entering final furlong, kept on but never going to reach leaders (op 17-2 tchd 9-1) It has improvement and a very nice place price as well Great race
Good luck
Tuesday, 16 August 2011
Oh gone on ...
Just for you guys - 7.00 Sligo Dawariyaa - okay you'll only get around 2/1 but it's better than working lol .... and this time got the favourable draw!
Edit: didn't negotiate the last bend and got outpaced - bad run!
Edit: didn't negotiate the last bend and got outpaced - bad run!
Fill yer boots!
I don't often give 2 certainties in quick succession, but there is another running in the 4.55 Sligo Blue Mimosa - I hope everyone lays it cos I will gobble up whatever is there!!
Edit: Phew!!! I even backed it at 7.0 in running!! Happy days are here again :)
Edit: Phew!!! I even backed it at 7.0 in running!! Happy days are here again :)
Saturday, 13 August 2011
Scoop 6 13 August similar analysis to John
2.00 Newbury Rigalleto rubbish run
2.45 Newmkt Ryliegh Mooch
3.05 Newbury Census and Claremont (edit at 12.48)
3.20 Newmakt Pabusar
3.30 Ripon Colonel Mak
3.40 NewburyDelegator NR
good luck hope the going does not change too much
Edit what a rubbish attempt at winning the scoop 6 and only 1 winner nominated makes the selections worrying on a day that did nothing for the satchel!
2.45 Newmkt Ryliegh Mooch
3.05 Newbury Census and Claremont (edit at 12.48)
3.20 Newmakt Pabusar
3.30 Ripon Colonel Mak
3.40 Newbury
good luck hope the going does not change too much
Edit what a rubbish attempt at winning the scoop 6 and only 1 winner nominated makes the selections worrying on a day that did nothing for the satchel!
Useful System - needs tuning though
Following on from a few ideas earlier I ran the following system for 3yo MR 2nd best plus and Best improvement.
Looks like a fertile hunting ground and I will refine the criteria and report back, any suggestions welcomed!
Based upon this (and they are not all 3yo!) Scoop 6 this week:
1. 2.00 Newb St Pierre
2. 2.45 Newm Clear Ice
3. 3.05 Newb Times Up
4. 3.20 Newm Lexis Hero
5. 3.30 Ripon Pepper Lane
6. 3.40 Newb Excelebration
Not expecting any cigars today though!
Hope you all have a good afternoon.
John
The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap
The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap is the most valuable race to be run at Ripon all season and it takes place today 3.30 Saturday, 13th August. It is run over 6 furlongs for 3yos and older it is always a very hotly contested handicap, the winning distance for the last 4 years has been a neck or shorter. always a good race for back to lay quite a few animals!!!!
going this morning is good to soft
past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-2-8
4yo: 4-8-55
5yo: 2-10-53
6yo: 2-4-36
7yo: 2-5-28
8yo+: 0-1-25
No very strong trends on age, obviously 10 of 10 winners have been aged 4 to 7, though they represented almost 84% of the total runners.
Horses aged 8+ have a very poor record of 0 wins & 1 place from 25 runners.
The last winning 3yo was Pipalong in 1999; she went on to win at group 1 level.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-4-26
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-10-59
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-13-95
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 0-3-25
Higher weights have held the edge in recent years with the last 5 winners carrying 8-10 to 9-6.
Top Weight: 040000000720 (0-2-12)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 101 or higher: 0-3-19
Horses rated 91 to 100: 7-11-92
Horses rated 90 or less: 3-16-94
7 of the last 8 winners (last 5) were officially rated between 91 and 100.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (both exceptions were placed on last 2 runs and placed in Stewards Cup last time out)
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out
9 of 10 winners had run in past 20 days
10 of 10 winners had won over at least 6 furlongs
9 of 10 winners ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Haydock last time
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Damika): 6030 (0-1-4)
Stoneacre Ford Handicap winner (Mon Brav): 8021 (1-1-4)
Armstrong Memorial H'cap winner (Pepper Lane): 0240040 (0-3-7)
Bet On Live Tennis totesport.com H'cap winner (Norville): 2 (0-1-1)
Directors Cup winner (Addictive Dream): 2 (0-1-1)
Totescoop6 Handicap winner (Edinburgh Knight): 30 (0-1-2)
Berry Bros & Rudd Magnum Handicap (Novellan Lad): 04 (0-1-2)
Ayr Silver Cup winner (Colonel Mak): 50 (0-0-2)
Scottish Stewards' Cup winner (Quest For Success): 500 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 0404
2 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham, finishing 04
2 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing 86
2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Steward's Cup, finishing 42
2 of 10 winners ran in RIU Palace Meloneras Handicap, finishing 10
Trainers
Dandy Nicholls (2-9-34) has done really well with his runners in this race in past 7 years. Since 2004 he has had 2 winners and 9 more placed from just 23 runners. Adrian Nicholls’ last 5 rides in the race have supplied a winner and 4 places (all on Dandy Nicholls runners, he will likely be on the stable first string).
David Evans (1-0-1) won the race in 2003 while Richard Whitaker (1-0-2) saddled Damika to win it last year.
Mick Channon (0-4-11), Tim Easterby (0-2-13) and Kevin Ryan (0-2-17) have all gained multiple places in the past 10 years though they have saddled numerous runners.
Mark Johnston (0-0-3) and Richard Fahey (0-0-11) are two of the most successful trainers at Ripon but both have failed to saddle a runner in the frame in this since 2000.
Draw (stats updated for stalls reordering)
Horses drawn 1 to 10: 9-19-100
Horses drawn 11 or higher: 1-11-105
Horses drawn low have a big advantage with no winner coming from higher than stall 11 in past 10 years. Wow was that a killer stat in that it was completely wrong for today race
Price
8 of 10 winners were sent off between 8/1 & 20/1
The only 2 winners to win outside the 8/1 to 20/1 price band were the two winning favourites.
Favourites (2-3-10) have a fair record in this race having won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 1.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 to 7
· Carrying 8-10 to 9-6
· Officially rated 91 to 100
· Run at least 3 times this season
· Won a race this season (or placed in Steward’s Cup)
· Ran in last 20 days in class 3 or higher
· Ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Haydock last time out
· Won over 6F or further
· Drawn 1 to 10
· Trained by Dandy Nicholls (and ridden by Adrian Nicholls
This is a hard nut to crack and referring to the Vfb and the stats makes me look to Colonel Mak (you have to ignore its run in the steward cup where he smashed his head against the stalls losing teeth in the process-- well Drawn in 4 its win at hamilton was at least 5lbs above this mark today loves cut in the ground and wont mind further rain - best runs have been july/aug and sept so the return to form at hamilton showed hes worthy of note -- can you win a race 14 days after knocking his teeth out ? betting will tell but worth putting a bet in on the current 16/1 betfair at 9.45 this morning.
Edit - well drawn for the 6flgs at ripon 130811 100%lat £43 grand race ne of the big sprint handicaps of the season, where the draw can often be crucial. This year it appeared that being on the stands´ side (high draw) was a big advantage, as the first three home raced down that side and were drawn 17,20 and 19. PEPPER LANE had improved from a starting mark of 74 this season, and had good course form on her side, so it looked merely whether her draw was a hindrance or not. Smartly into stride, she showed speed on the rail and won in the manner of a horse good enoughto try her luck in Group company, with something like The Flying Five at the Curragh or Newbury´s Dubai Airport World Trophy making appeal considering the pace she shows. However, it appears that the Ayr Gold Cup is firmly on the agenda in the longer-term. gop improver with 41 and top Lat 12 dsr
My Selection Colonel Mak was interesting on his best form (had excuse in the Stewards´ Cup after losing teeth in the stalls) but was one-paced after being thereabouts on the far side of the course. -- wrong side
1 Pepper Lane 11/1
2 Our Jonathan 10/1
3 Mayson 40/1
4 Parisian Pyramid 18/1
Edit - well drawn for the 6flgs at ripon 130811 100%lat £43 grand race ne of the big sprint handicaps of the season, where the draw can often be crucial. This year it appeared that being on the stands´ side (high draw) was a big advantage, as the first three home raced down that side and were drawn 17,20 and 19. PEPPER LANE had improved from a starting mark of 74 this season, and had good course form on her side, so it looked merely whether her draw was a hindrance or not. Smartly into stride, she showed speed on the rail and won in the manner of a horse good enoughto try her luck in Group company, with something like The Flying Five at the Curragh or Newbury´s Dubai Airport World Trophy making appeal considering the pace she shows. However, it appears that the Ayr Gold Cup is firmly on the agenda in the longer-term. gop improver with 41 and top Lat 12 dsr
My Selection Colonel Mak was interesting on his best form (had excuse in the Stewards´ Cup after losing teeth in the stalls) but was one-paced after being thereabouts on the far side of the course. -- wrong side
1 Pepper Lane 11/1
2 Our Jonathan 10/1
3 Mayson 40/1
4 Parisian Pyramid 18/1
Friday, 12 August 2011
The form is not reliable today ! 3.10 Newbury
There are so many unknowns today can see that the market could well be the best guide. There are good races to make notes about but cant see any outstanding bets and running analyser gives me 3/4 finishers in photos so that makes me pull my horns in.
My attention is drawn to the 3.10 at Newbury in the 1m5f at 3.10. The going is good with no predicted showers.
four 3 yr old have won this race three 4 yr old's one five and one 6 yr old one 8 yr old the average price is around 4/1 to 10/1 (the 8 yr old winner going off at 28/1 having not run for 155 days.)
Previous winning form in races not to the fore nor any great stats on where they ran.
so concentrating on what we know the winner looks as if it will come from the 3 yr olds with the weight allowance to get them that edge.
Time to Work is Balding animal (Trainer who has best stats in this line up ) was in the 1st time Visor last run at ascot and certainly lacked any pace over the 1m4f this extra will def help retains them today has an improving profile but has not run well to this mark - better ground may help it but iffy Certainly being backed has dropped from 11/1 to current 7/1
Galivant the other 3 yr old is in its first handicap and is very progressive winning its last at Chepstow eased right down (watch race on ATR) was a 1/9 shot that day tracked leaders, went 2nd 8f out, led on bit over 3f out, clear over 2f out, eased final 100 yards did nothing at Longchamp last run and that run can be discounted for form purposes
A word for the recent runner at Newbury Rockfella who ran right up to this mark in a class 5 and cannot be discounted at the age of five has a lot of positives and is at that bookies uneasy price of 9/1 currently
but in the book Galivant has the most positive stats
Good luck all
Bob
as ever the result was not what I wanted but saved and made money on the win
1 Rockfella 11/1
2 Spice Fair 15/2
3 Time To Work 5/1
My attention is drawn to the 3.10 at Newbury in the 1m5f at 3.10. The going is good with no predicted showers.
four 3 yr old have won this race three 4 yr old's one five and one 6 yr old one 8 yr old the average price is around 4/1 to 10/1 (the 8 yr old winner going off at 28/1 having not run for 155 days.)
Previous winning form in races not to the fore nor any great stats on where they ran.
so concentrating on what we know the winner looks as if it will come from the 3 yr olds with the weight allowance to get them that edge.
Time to Work is Balding animal (Trainer who has best stats in this line up ) was in the 1st time Visor last run at ascot and certainly lacked any pace over the 1m4f this extra will def help retains them today has an improving profile but has not run well to this mark - better ground may help it but iffy Certainly being backed has dropped from 11/1 to current 7/1
Galivant the other 3 yr old is in its first handicap and is very progressive winning its last at Chepstow eased right down (watch race on ATR) was a 1/9 shot that day tracked leaders, went 2nd 8f out, led on bit over 3f out, clear over 2f out, eased final 100 yards did nothing at Longchamp last run and that run can be discounted for form purposes
A word for the recent runner at Newbury Rockfella who ran right up to this mark in a class 5 and cannot be discounted at the age of five has a lot of positives and is at that bookies uneasy price of 9/1 currently
but in the book Galivant has the most positive stats
Good luck all
Bob
as ever the result was not what I wanted but saved and made money on the win
1 Rockfella 11/1
2 Spice Fair 15/2
3 Time To Work 5/1
Hi Guys - back from a break and raring to go
Have had the well earned rest and have not missed the poor fare on show -- and looking at the cards does not look that ideal for punting until next week Ebor meeting. So we may as well start off with the stats nice and early Ebor Handicap is the showpiece event of York’s four day festival which starts on Wednesday 17th August. (The Ebor meeting was abandoned at York in 2008 season after the track was waterlogged and as a result the Ebor was run as the Newburgh handicap at Newbury. However from a trends perspective we will focus on the last 10 running's of the Ebor at York.)
Below we take a look at the trends for past 10 years
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-7-14
4yo: 2-12-84
5yo: 5-8-61
6yo+: 1-3-45
3 year olds have the best record, having won 2 of the 10 runnings from less than 8% of the total runners and 60% of their vintage making the frame.
5 year olds have won 5 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 28.8% of the runners.
Horses aged 6 or above have a terrible record, having gained just 1 win from 45 runners in the past 10 runnings.
Weights
Horses carrying 8-13 or more: 3-18-116
Horses carrying 8-12 or less: 7-12-88
Only 3 horses since 1995 have carried over 8-12 to victory, all 3 posted a career high MR of 107+ on their last start, 2 were running under a penalty for winning a race at Glorious Goodwood.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 103 to 112: 0-8-38
Horses rated 92 to 102: 7-19-129
Horses rated 91 or less: 3-3-37
7 of 10 winners have been officially rated between 92 and 102
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on 1 of last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better on last flat start (both exceptions won a class 3)
10 of 10 winners posted highest MR of last 12 months in last 2 runs
10 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception had run 3 times, all in listed or group company)
9 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or better (exception 2nd in group 3)
8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps
9 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 4F+ (exception was 2nd in group 3 over 1M 6F)
3 of 10 winners (last 3) had won a hurdles race earlier that year
5 of 10 winners ran at Glorious Goodwood last time
2 of 10 winners ran at Ascot last time out
2 of 10 winners ran at the Galway Festival last time
Other Races
Northumberland Plate winner (Tominator): 004100 (1-1-6)
John Smith's Silver Cup winner (Tactician): 3 (0-1-1)
Duke Of Edinburgh handicap winner (Fox Hunt): 30 (0-1-2)
Braveheart handicap winner (Red Cadeaux): 939 (0-1-3)
Bet On Wimbledon totesport.com H'cap winner (Sivino): 75 (0-0-2)
Old Newton Cup winner (Halicarnassus): 805009 (0-0-6)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 72
2 of 10 winners ran in the Summer Stakes at Goodwood, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Icap Handicap at Ascot, finishing 46
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 00
5 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot that season
5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 at Glorious Goodwood last time
Trainers
Luca Cumani (2-2-7) has won the race three times since 1999 and 5 of his 7 runners in past 10 years have made the first 5 home.
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-5) does particularly well with his 3yos. The four 3yos he has saddled in the last 10 runnings have finished 1st-3rd-2nd-2nd.
Amanda Perrett (1-1-6) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race since 2000.
Philip Hobbs (0-2-2) has seen both his representatives make the places, while James Fanshawe (0-2-4) and Michael Stoute (0-2-9) have also saddled a couple of placed- finishers.
Irish-trained runners (3-4-16) have won 3 of the last 10 from less than 8% of the total runners. They have done particularly well recently, filling the runners-up spot in 2007, the first 2 home in 2009 and the 1st & 4th last year.
Draw
Horses drawn the highest 7 stalls: 9-6-70
Horses drawn in the middle stalls: 0-11-64
Horses drawn in the bottom 7 stalls: 1-13-70
9 of 10 winners (last 5) were drawn in the highest 7 stalls
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were held up in midfield or rear
Price
No strong trend to be gleaned from the prices with 5 of the winners going off 14/1 or shorter and the other 5 going off 16/1 or bigger including one at 100/1.
Favourites (1-5-10) have won just 1 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 to 5
· Carrying 8-12 or less (or carrying a penalty for a Glorious Goodwood win)
· Officially rated 92 to 102
· Finished in the first two in 1 of last 2 runs
· Posted highest MR in last 2 starts
· Won a race this season
· Ran in a class 2 or better in the last 40 days
· Had last run at Goodwood, Ascot or Galway
· Run in 8 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 4)
· Won at class 3 level or higher
· Won over 1M 4F+
· Drawn in highest 7 stalls
· Hold up horses favoured
· Trained by Luca Cumani, Philip Hobbs or an Aidan O’Brien 3yo
· Irish-trained runners do well
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