Aintree Bumper 231011

Some decent animals have contested this race in the past 5 years

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2010	Herdsman	5	11-0	7/2F	Philip Hobbs	Richard Johnson	122
2009	Solway Sam	6	11-2	33/1	Lisa Harrison	Ewan Whillans	112
2008	Cloudy Times	5	11-4	9/4F	Sue Smith	Tjade Collier	123
2007	Silly Wupple	5	11-0	50/1	M Scudamore	Alan O'Keeffe	107
2006	Super Nick	5	11-0	2/1F	Nigel Twiston-Davies	David England	117
2005	Spartacus Bay	4	10-13	14/1	Venetia Williams	Liam Treadwell	114

it pays to look at the field closely and take notes on the outcome
Royal Guardsman looks very smart indeed on its win at Fontwell where the Tizzards introduced Cue Card for a very similar performance before going on to trounce the field in the Cheltenham bumper at odds of 40/1  and a horse that was well worthy of following -- 
 but the field today at aintree on the fast ground has thrown up some very long prices  as you can see from the above 
 have highlited the Vfb card for the race set for the highest rating  take a look and make sure you make notes 

  bloody hell what a beautiful winner in Sir Johnson for Bowen - hes gonna be in everyones book now 4 winners in bumper unheard of !


A big field of promising sorts lined up for this, and there is no doubt that some nice prospects took their chance, but you can only admire SIR JOHNSON for winning his fourth straight bumper, giving away at least 7lb to all his rivals. Connections are unsure whether to go hurdling with him or save him for a crack at the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham next March, so it´s difficult to predict what´s next for him.

Talkonthestreet, who won an Irish point on his only start in that sphere, moved quite well in midfield and kept on dourly, but wasn´t able to get past the winner. He did beat the third by a healthy margin, however.

Special Catch travelled strongly for quite a way but took a while to really pick up. The way he closed down the fourth was pleasing, and he should have no problems winning a bumper.

Royal Guardsman impressed when winning at Fontwell on his debut and looked a big threat as he moved closer here. He was still bang in contention when the winning jockey´s whip unintentionally came close to hitting him a few times across the head (it may have made contact at least once, but it was difficult to tell), so although Colin Tizzard´s horse was starting to look held, there is possibly a reason why he faded inside the final stages.

Victor Lynch ran a cracker and doesn´t look short of heart. He stuck to his task well under pressure and was keeping on in pleasing fashion after being prominent throughout.

Merry King won an Irish point in March, in which the fourth and fifth had already come out and won. He was produced to have every chance and ran better than his final position suggests, as his jockey wisely didn´t give the 4yo a hard time when he looked tired.

The Goldmeister looks as though he has ability and will no doubt win races in time, while Heart Dancer was a big eyecatcher from the rear. He´d unseated his rider in a point on his only previous outing, but he shaped really nicely here, running on past horses from an unpromising position. Hopefullyhe´ll be raced closer to the pace next time.

Swinging Sultan had every chance turning in but looked inexperience off the bridle and wasn´t given a hard time when it was clear he´d play no part in the finish. 

QUOTES: Owner Steve Fleetham Sir Johnson has schooled over hurdles, but we´re not sure whether to go jumping with him or leave him for the Cheltenham bumper.


The satisfaction of beating Martin selection by 2.5l is a little tempered by the fact both animals finished so far back and took our money with them does not make make it much of a coup.


my pleasure in sharing the notes above - cut and paste into the note field there will be money made from these 
 Bob

What's going on?

What's happened to the blog? I go away for a few days and when I return it looks different - AND Bob picking winners! I can't have that, so her are mine for the day:

3.15 Gal Social Benefit
3.25 Win Briefcase
3.45 Ain Silk Drum
4.00 Win Vincpol
4.35 win Simply Strong
4.55 Ain Swinging Sultan
5.10 Win Blue Blooded (NAP)

What a terrible day for me!!! OUCH!

Analyser animals for me on yesterday runners

Was really taken by a couple of runners that are in my analyser -- first up and most impressive Fillionaire 3.15 Newbury- Channon has a good one here  on at Goodwood first run 64/1 091011A fair maiden that should produce a few winners. The majority of these raced up the middle, but three runners (Opera Flute, Rock Song and Jay Bee Blue) raced stands´ side throughout. FILLIONAIRE, a 55,000gns purchase, is a half-sister to a couple of winners, notably the very useful Pabusar, a C&D winner, and the dam was decent over 5f-6f. She showed a likeable attitude, taking this in a professional manner, and considering it reportedly took her connections by surprise, it´s reasonable to think there´s plenty more to come. In time she could be very useful.Mick Channon, trainer of Fillionaire “She has been working well but has had a lot of problems and we just thought we´d give her a run, so it´s a nice surprise. She wouldn´t want the ground any quicker.”
221011 16/1 newbury fillies listed Fillionaire, a 55,000gns half-sister to a couple of winners, notably the very useful Pabusar, was a surprise winner on her debut over 6f. Up in grade on her second start, she ran creditably and picked up valuable black type. She might have more to offer next season. this was quicker ground and yet she powered home well still very green in early stages 16/1 third impressive .


2.15 Newbury - 221011 newbury The recent winners of this juvenile Group 3 have not really gone on to greater glory, the best of them being Beacon Lodge, who subsequently beat Sahpresa later in his career and was placed at Group 2 level. This looked just a fair renewal on paper, although  TELL DAD, a dual winner at 6-7f including a sales race and closely matched with Mehdi on recent runs in a similar contest, was up in grade. He set off in front and found plenty when asked to draw clear entering the last furlong. He is a really likeable type and a credit to his trainer, and deserved this Group victory, his handler´s 117th 2yo winner of the season. He is in the sales next week but might not go now.


 Roan Chase worked out well for the Bowen horse who needs this sharp track type and Pure faith was thefencer to take out of the race - as usual this race went to the horse who was in the lead early and hats off to Tony Mccoy for that run on Albertas Run 


Racing Post trophy --what a superbe winner in Camalot but my fancy for the place went so well -This top-class juvenile contest has gone to three Epsom Derby winners over the past decade, namely High Chaparral (2001), Motivator (2004) and Authorized (2006), while Brian Boru (2002) took this en route to his St Leger triumph. During the same period three also-rans subsequently placed at Epsom The Great Gatsby (only fourth in 2002), Dylan Thomas (sixth in 2005), and Eagle Mountain (fourth in 2006). The last four runnings have not reached that standard, however.

A field of five represented the poorest numerical turnout since American Post defeated three rivals in 2004, and the absence of Godolphin´s highly regarded maiden winner Encke was disappointing. However, there was a highly promising winner and the form has some substance with the runner-upand third having both recorded three-figure RPRs last time.

The time was nothing special on a day when some races dipped under standard, but the gallop, set by the winner´s stablemateLearn, did not appear strong. The pacemaker looked out his depth, though he had been off since his maiden win in August.

Long before Encke was announced a non-runner, CAMELOT, absent since winning a standard maiden at Leopardstown (1m, good) on his debut in July, had been heavily punted and he became the firstodds-on winner since American Post, producing an immensely promising performance. The true worth of the form will be a while in being established, but the winner could do no more than cruise along until scooting clear without needing anything like a hardride. Another plus was his straightforward attitude. That can´t always be said of Montjeu´s progeny, but this was the sire´s fourth success in the race.

As well as this event often works out, still fresh in the memory are the subsequent records of more recent winners, some of whom were equally flashy in deeper fields (Crowded House and Ballydoyle´s St Nicholas Abbey spring to mind), so top prices of 7-1 for the Guineas and 4-1 for the Derby don´t appeal. However, it´s worth noting the last horse to win this following a debut maiden success was Motivator, and anyone who´s already on for the Classics has done well. He´s clearly not short of tactical pace and as of yet there´s no standout Guineas candidate, while he really ought to get 1m4f.

Incidentally, Aidan O´Brien was improving his 2011 record with juveniles in Britain to 7-25, compared to 0-31 last year, and clearly he has a good deal of strength in depth in the division.

According to Jim Bolger, Zip Top didn´t handle the downhill run when third in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes (fourth-placed Crusade won the Middle Park) over 7f at Newmarket last time, and he was supplemented for this. He was no match at all for the potentially high-class winner. BUT has to be a considered horse for next year

Scoop6 221011

This weeks fun...............

2.00 Donc Dreamacha up in class but won easily last time....do like Racy - the Boss has got it in her mix

2.15 Newb On paper Saigon has it all but for Scoop 6 Nawwar does it for me....

2.30 Donc toss up between Mrs Lahar and Dreamwriter.....if the latter runs to ability should win

2.45 Newb Al Kazeem needs pace but should be there or there abouts

3.15 Newb Way to Hot way up in class but won easily last time and has Fallon on.......

3.45 Newb Naqshabaan just because.... but don't forget old nanton and Vainglory

Bob I agree with your comments on the Old Roan.....Pure Faith is intersting but looks like his jumping can be a bit iffy.......but as you say had a couple of outings this year, Albertas Run will need all of McCoys input - ann mainly without the whip, which means I guess that Masterminded should be a banker.......but we have been there before!

Good luck all!

RACING POST AND THE ROAN CHASE 2221011

Fields have cut up so badly for these two great races
Roan chase even with three runners will be a thriller - if the real Master Minded turns up it could be the equiv of a walk over - have made money over the years with Albertas Run who I think is the best BTL horse normally but prices maybe too skinny in a three horse race.
Question is why is Bown running his virtual novice Pure Faith against the big boys? well the weight allowance for one thing  and over the years has had both his runners make the frame with similar profiles to today. Is a front runner who is fitter from runs than the top two - has course and ground form and this is a front runners race. the top two are way above him in class and past performance. 
If he can get the lead his fitness will be hard to crack - favourites have a poor performance and Albertas is my perennial dodge pot without the whip -- fun bet on the Bowen Horse as a btl cos he should shorten really well during the race and go back out at the end of the race as they come to get him.
result --- This limited Grade 2 handicap signalled the first big clash of the British jumps campaign with last season´s one-two from the Melling Chase, Master Minded and ALBERTAS RUN, renewing rivalry and the market strongly suggested that form would be confirmed. There was a turn-up, however, as Master Minded ran flat and Albertas Run was pushed all the way to the line by the apparent no-hoper Pure Faith, who had appeared to be running for place money only.

Albertas Run had bounced back to his best at the Cheltenham Festival with a fourth win at the top level when gamely defending the Ryanair Chase, but he never looked that happy when beaten nine lengths in second by Master Minded over C&D on his final outing of last season. The betting suggested he would again play second fiddle to his old rival, but he was getting 10lb from him and was allowed to dictate matters from the front. His attitude saw him home in front from the last, but there has to be a question mark over just what he achieved in scrambling home from the 136-rated runner-up.

His season will no doubt be geared around his bid to win the Ryanair for a third successive year, but he will be an 11yo in the new year and there will be younger, more progressive rivals waiting in the wings.

Pure Faith is a course winner but faced a tall order from 22lb out of the handicap. He ran a huge race in defeat, jumping neatly throughout and travelling as well as anything. The handicapper will have to react to this and his official mark could take abig hike. With that in mind connections will surely be tempted to turn him out again today, when he is due to concede weight all round in a novice chase over C&D.

Master Minded was reported to have been in great shape prior to this comeback and got smashed up in the betting. Taken wide throughout, he jumped superbly at times but failed to convince whenever he was asked for a big one and he was in real trouble after an error three out. He was beaten after the next and clearly failed to give his true running. This leaves him with an awful lot to prove, but connections later said he probably needed the run as he had a decent blow afterwards. He has bounced back before.

Racing Post is a shambles with the current betting - usually stuffed full of Montjeu bred animals the only one today is the Camalot animal from Obrien (already tipped for next years derby)  - fitness is not on its side but must be scorching up the gallops  for this yard to be backing it - and it has the pace maker  so its a no bet race at these odds though the fav has won the last 6 runnings the dsr is not tempting me in at that price - alternatives are not glaring (Gosden has a poor record  and his runner  Fencing could be the lay and Zip Top a possible angle if it does not swerve off to the right at the stalls like he did last time for a bet in running

Good luck today guys


 Rob

5pm chase Carlisle beginners chase 2m2f soft ground

This was the best race of the day in my opinion and winners will come out of it big time - the worry at this time of the year is:-

•  how unfit animals are coming back off a break -At the end of the day it’s punting suicide to throw your money at a horse that has in the past shown that they ‘need a run’ to get them to their fighting weight. Regardless of how much better than the opposition they are deemed to be (Rigour Back Bob and Berties Dream being prime examples) if they are not at peak fitness and are running against better equipped opponents (fitness-wise) they are likely to struggle.
• ( the new and confusing to jocks Whip Rules) 
•  how much you can trust previous form.

 This is the start of a new era and whip use will have determined the outcome of many past races. Mr McCoy for one will not be able to "galvanise" a horse and will have to adapt more than many jump jocks to stay within the new limits - it will have some impact on not just the whip use but how he rides the entire race. Go back far enough and he was the known front runner for pipe going furlongs clear and making sure the got home by quite agricultural use of the whip - his style has changed and he is more content to let his animal lay back and lob along  with strong driving at the end of the race -- how many times have you heard " McCoy never gives up"? well the master has to change tactics again for the new rules and that will make it very difficult for a while if not for the rest of his career - he can get winners without flogging a horse  but during this period he will be trying all styles to get his animals home and in the interim his animals should be closely looked at to see how much they needed from him in the past before making too big a bet at short odds.


ok having got that off my chest the chase at Carlisle was quite splendid  Riders were very much within the rules and the right result for all that (even though my money was on Bold Sir Brian - it was A well above average beginners´ chase with five horses rated 122+ over hurdles I would reccomend that notes should be made in the VFB for the following .

FRASCATI PARK, a 130-rated hurdler, was making his chase debut on his first start since April. A keen-going type who has a low head carriage, he tended to jump right-handed at times. Setting a sound pace, he was being hard driven five out yet increased his advantage on the run-in. He looks sure to enjoy further success.Form figures after 60 days or more off the track (including yesterday) – 1-1-2-3-0-1

Bold Sir Brian, rated 135 after his Grade 2 win at Kelso in March, looked to have done himself really well during the break. Quite keen early and inclined to lose ground at his fences, he had work to do after a blunder in the dip. In pursuit of the winner two out, he failed to make an impression after some novicey jumps but this was only his sixth career start and he looks a fine prospect. Form Figures after a break 2-4-1-2 (including yesterday)

Aikman, a winner of three points, is rated 140 after a wide-margin win on his return over 2m6f at Kelso. Suited by going right-handed, after getting outpaced after three out he kept on in grim fashion onthe run-in. He needs further and will soon make his mark.


 Going Wrong, rated 130, had been off two years with a broken pelvis. He went well for a long way but was tired when clouting the last. He is sure to improve as the season progresses.

Our Mick, rated 122, was making his chasing debut after being absent since a crashing fall over hurdles at Bangor in March. After getting badly outpaced five out he kept on in his own time up the final hill. The outing will have done him a power of good.
Karmadice, rated just 109 after four previous starts over fences, will have improved for this return but would surely have a more realistic chance of opening his account over fences in handicap company.   

Bob

interesting cards today 201011

Ludlow and Carlisle are getting some decent animals and some are well worthy of a watch if not backing at any big stakes...
3.25 Carlisle  The first race is off at 1.50pm and the chase course is soft, good to soft in places while the hurdle course is good to soft, good in places.


keep your eyes out for a big run from Le Grande Chen - first run in this country last time at newton abbot really did catch the eye as a stamp of a horse that can go places --- wrote that it was on the wrong leg most of the trip and would be much more suited to a bit of cut and going right handed. Watching it again this morning on ATR confirmed my original thoughts -- it was backed from 20s to 14s that day and if they expect improvement for ground and trip the current 32s will go - running behind Mangar Hanagment that day he lay in fourth and made a real right hand jump at the last and tailed off . I was more impressed with him than most so I have only myself to blame for putting him up as the best each way chance on the card will strip much fitter and to me is mouth watering.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 my poor insides 
 Horrible run Not  penny from the yard - never at the races went off at 34 Betfair and did not get into the race simply lobbed along without any urging from this jock -- Running for a proper mark. Will be "trying" after its next one.


watch out for a big run from the Lucinda Russel Horses under  Gillies, and at Ludlow the race that catches my eye is the 3.45 where Wedge takes a good weight off the back of Agente Romano for Williams - Wedge could really go places now for this trainer who excels here.
 Daley Yard is in the doldrums and cant capture the form of a couple of years ago - Daley is a pot hunter and the race he can get the sparkle back if he ever will is at 4.15 and he runs Timpo one of the gawkiest horses you ever saw on a race course but built like a tank and got better as the year progressed - can easily get this mark and promise of improvement makes me think hes in with a big shout for this cup race
 good luck today - let me know what animals catch the eye -


 Bob

Breeders Cup 2011 advanced post

The Breeders Cup 2011 will take place at Louisville in Kentucky State at the Churchill Downs on November fifth and sixth; the event has previously been held here for six times Goldikova attempts to go for an unprecedented fourth straight victory in the race. It is a race that the French have done particularly well in and though Goldikova hasn’t been as dominant in Europe this year as she had been in previous seasons, it would be a brave man to doubt her chances of racking up the 4-timer.

No very strong stat on the ages of winners. 4yos have won 5 of the last 10 from approximately 33% of the total runners.

Gender

Fillies/mares (4-2-12) have a fine record in this race, gaining 4 wins and 2 places from just 12 runners, though these stats are skewed by the fact that Goldikova has won the last 3 runnings. French trained females have a record of 4-2-7.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (5 won)

9 of 10 winners had last run 20 to 50 days ago

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 5 or 6 times that year

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won at least twice that year

10 of 10 winners had won over a mile

10 of 10 winners had won a grade/group 1 or 2 that season

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had finished in first 4 in a grade/group 1

Last Year Hannon took his Paco Boy to no avail (Moore reported it could not handle the sharp bends) will be putting up the  final stats later - it is one of the great races to look forwards to!  

Some fancies tommorow

1.30 Newmarket - The only maiden which looks appealing. I fancy Fulney to win. Looking about 4/1 at the moment.

2.05 Navan - Kateeva

2.10 Worc - Kentford Grey Lady - was held up last time, so it's price is not a true reflection of this horses ability. Smaller field should hopefully mean it gets the luck in running required. The favourite in this race (Cocoa Minnie) is worth apposing at such a short price (FSP EVENS). Combustible Lady should also make the frame here. No E/W value though, so gonna dutch this one.

2.30 Newm - Lord of the Shadows - posted 2 good placings over this distance. Fancy it to go one better today.

3.05 Nav - Canary Wharf

3.15 Worc - Aldertune

3.35 Nav - Colla Pier

4.10 Newm - Secrecy (NAP) -

4.30 Font - Manadam

4.45 Newm - Haafhd Handsome

5.05 Font - Osmosia

Will be doing singles on these. Using same columns as last time, these were the ones that stood out above the rest.

Tested this yesterday (no bets) and had 6 winners from 11 (Probably a bit of good fortune and luck aswell). So small singles on these.

Had a shocker today, got home from work about 16:50 and saw Seneschal in the 17:00 Ling was an absolute stand-out on VFB (Check it out). Went to max out on this one at 8/1 and bloody pc crashed. Much to my dismay, i rebooted (too late by then) and it won. Karma.

Seems your on fire, bob. I sent you a FB friend request. Look forward to your picks as usual matey.

what a winning Day and just for my ego

Robert Taylor

Shostakovich for the win for me at lingers

 ·  · about an hour ago · 

• • 

    Spankthe Bookie My bet of the day and NAP on Roman Strait

    about an hour ago · 
  • 

    Robert Taylor GET INNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

    about an hour ago · 
  • 

    Spankthe Bookie well done on selection but i feel robbed on the ride on the favorite shocking

    59 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Tony Beedle Wd Robert

    59 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Carole Jackson wd

    59 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Mark Marvell wd again robert

    59 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Robert Taylor thanks that was nice

    57 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Dave Jones WD

    57 minutes ago · 

Robert Taylor

‎4.40 Mumbles has competed hight both horrible jumpers - who goes for the whip and who goes to hospital?

 ·  · 54 minutes ago · 

• • 

    Robert Taylor that was very good race and 2.5 yummy

    43 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Mark as spam

    Spankthe Bookie There is a good situation on the use of the whip, both jumped well and both only went for the whip in the final furlong, Spring Moon jockey did not want to use the whip as closed when given a touch in the final 50yrds. good race though for a boring 2 entry contest

    42 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Robert Taylor did not turn out to be boring - both jumped well off a slow pace as soon as they quickened it went to pieces as expected but spring moon over jumping was significant -- and that ground is Horrible

    40 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Mark as spam

    Spankthe Bookie Rob i did say a good race despite a 2 boring 2 ENTRY contest lol

Robert Taylor

Cavito Cavatino each way for me

 ·  · 38 minutes ago · 

• • 

    Robert Taylor get innnnnnnnnnn

    35 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Spankthe Bookie great call Robert

    34 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Nathan Edwards wd

    34 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Spankthe Bookie well done Robert good call and a nice price

    33 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Mark Marvell robert well done

    33 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Carole Jackson very well done nice odds too

Spankthe Bookie

i think i will be backing all Robert Taylor's selections for the day blind, in hot form

 ·  · 31 minutes ago · 

• • 

    Mark as spam

    Carole Jackson he had a good day yesterday as well!

    29 minutes ago · 

Robert Taylor

Dixi Gwalia for me win and place for a small bet

 ·  · 12 minutes ago · 

• Spankthe Bookie likes this.
• • 

    Spankthe Bookie i have a little saver on this Robert, your on fire at the mo

    9 minutes ago ·  ·  1 person
  • 

    Spankthe Bookie Awsome Robert

    4 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Robert Taylor GET INNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

    4 minutes ago ·  ·  1 person
  • 

    Mark Marvell robert hope i bump into you 1 day to buy you a huge drink

    4 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Dave Jones WD

    3 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Robert Taylor just a nice moon card will do Mark thanks guys - a big withdraw button day day

    3 minutes ago · 
  • 

    Spankthe Bookie Well on that note thanxs to Robert Taylor im in pocket and scooting

    3 minutes ago ·  ·  1 person
  • 

    Mark Marvell me too

    about a minute ago ·