Monday, 26 December 2011
Official Ratings!
When I watch a race and I spot a horse I like or dont like say a winner that impressed me or a winner I wanna oppose next time, how can I find out how much is has been raised in OR weights?
Coral Welsh National heavy ground 271211
The Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow on Tuesday 27th December. It is grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, usually on soft or heavy ground, and it represents a serious test of any horse’s stamina.
Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:
10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9
Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 6-11-55, which compares well to horses aged 8+ of 4-16-115.
Horses aged 10+ have a very poor record having failed to win a single renewal in the past 10 years and gaining just 4 places from 42 runners.
Breeding
In last 6 years French breeds have filled 13 of 24 places from less than 26% of the total runners
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-12-55
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-16-115
No strong trend on weights, though higher weights have held an edge recently with 4 of last 5 winners carrying 10-8+
Top weight: PFP2PF3P2377 (0-4-12)
8 of 10 horses carrying a penalty that were racing from inside the h'cap finished in first 5
Official Ratings
From 2001 to 2005 all 5 winners were rated below 142 and only 5 of 18 places were filled by horses rated 142+.
From 2006 to 2010 4 of 5 winners were rated 142+ and 11 of 20 placed finishers were rated 142 or higher.
Since 2006: Horses rated 142 or higher: 4-7-38 Horses rated 141 or lower: 1-8-54
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
10 of 10 winners has run either once or twice that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M or further
6 of 10 winners had won at Chepstow before (4 others were having first course start)
8 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more that 2 handicap chase prior to this
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a listed/graded chase (exception had yet to run in a graded chase but won Becher Chase on last run)
4 of last 5 winners ran in a handicap hurdle on previous outing
last year the winner Synchronised fitted this profile exactly plus the fact it was top distance plus horse and was tops for Course Cgl Cod and c-R it had completed 91%win ratio from three runs on the forecast ground this is the sort of profile we are looking for tomorrow
Other races
Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase winner (Galaxy Rock): P6 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing 484
3 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 241
2 of 10 winners ran in the Totown Novice Chase, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish National, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Grand National, finishing 60
2 of 10 winners ran in the Becher Chase, finishing F1
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 6 in the Welsh/Scottish/Irish/Midlands Grand Nationals, the Hennessy or NH Chase at Cheltenham (1 exception fell in the NH Chase when still in with a big chance)
Clearly form in a prestigious chase over 3M 2F or further is essential.
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-5-20) unsurprisingly has a good record in the race having won it twice in the last 7 years.
Jonjo O’Neill (2-0-5) has also won the race twice, including last year with Synchronised.
Alan King (1-3-8) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-3-11) have each saddled the winner and 3 placed finishers in the past 10 years.
Jim Dreaper (1-0-1) won the race in 2008 with Notre Pere.
Venetia Williams (0-3-7) trained the winner in 2000 and has seen 3 of her 7 runners in past 10 runnings make the places.
Irish trained runners (1-2-10) hadn't won the race until Notre Pere’s success in 2008.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
Dream Alliance at 20/1 was the longest priced winner in the past 10 years.
The favourite (1-4-11) has won just 1 of the last 10 and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 9
- French bred horses do well
- Officially rated 142 or higher
- Finished in the first 4 last time out in past 55 days
- Had 1 or 2 runs this season
- Ran over hurdles last time out
- Course winner (or having first course start)
- Won over 3M or further
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
- Won or placed in a graded chase
- Second or third season chaser
- Finished in first 4 in Midlands National or Haydock GN Trial
- First 6 in another Grand National, Hennessy Gold Cup or 4M NH Chase
- Trained by P Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill A King or N Twiston-Davies
My Notebook - As De Fer (Fr) Sam Thomas went well heavy ground Exeter 130211 very unexposed won it easy
281111 only 5 yrs old won well from the front hacked up 3miles ffos llas 7.49 betfair class 3 won as he liked under top weight imp 9 top cgl crs cod cgl c-r page 7 253 dsr very smart indeed was 50/1 before this race for the welsh national wont be that price now! currently 14/1 betfair bred to stay and stay.
Update 271211 So with the stats for 5 yr old a bit shaky and as much as I love the horse it is prone to inexperience and therefore not the only one to back in my opinion
horses to note in the market
Master Overseer - CDG over hdles went of fav last time on heavy but hit too many - is the best backed of Pipe yard runners today and only 10-00 on its back has appeal - will stay
Giles Cross beaten by Synchonised into second last year is running well and is well in today
La Beau Bai a truly lovely stayer gets loads of pluses off this mark
Complete outsider with great chance of the frame is Or Noir De Samoza - went well over hdles last run won heavy ground chase in France and went well till the aintree national till hitting the beechers brook fence like a train into buffers
that's it have a great race allllllllllllll
Bob
Update 271211 So with the stats for 5 yr old a bit shaky and as much as I love the horse it is prone to inexperience and therefore not the only one to back in my opinion
horses to note in the market
Master Overseer - CDG over hdles went of fav last time on heavy but hit too many - is the best backed of Pipe yard runners today and only 10-00 on its back has appeal - will stay
Giles Cross beaten by Synchonised into second last year is running well and is well in today
La Beau Bai a truly lovely stayer gets loads of pluses off this mark
Complete outsider with great chance of the frame is Or Noir De Samoza - went well over hdles last run won heavy ground chase in France and went well till the aintree national till hitting the beechers brook fence like a train into buffers
that's it have a great race allllllllllllll
Bob
what we have been waiting for Tuesday 3miles
| 3 |  | 2266 | The Strawberry Onech m Kadastrof (FR) - Peppermint Plod (GB) 6, 11-11 (12) (Miss Kykie Allsopp) Rated 133 | D W P Arbuthnot D A Jacob |
My Bet for the Day just as the family arrives!
Knight Valiant in the 2.20 at Wetherby you will have to look it up cos am being called - its second to Arisea is the only form in this race that looks solid upped in trip these brush will suite for a long shot nap today -= looks like the lads are all firing to go and there are some very good selections put up
Have a look...
Have a look today at www.minervaracing.com, today there are 2 races analysed inclusive the Grands Crus race...
This guy is working with personal National Hunt sectionals and is connected on Twitter with good guys in the racing scene. He put up a few selections on Twitter on the A.W long priced and some of 5/1 plus inclusive good National Hunt selections and Reviews his measured Sectionals of a good meeting and then decides if a winner, 2nd, 3rd is raised to much wieght for next time and is analysing in detail what suits certain runners.
Have a look what he said about Grands Crus win last time out looking at the sectionals he made:
14.10: Despite there only being four runners, this promised to be a fascinating novice chase beforehand, and it didn’t disappoint. Grands Crus defied his penalty to maintain his unbeaten start to life over fences, and he remains a fascinating prospect for the rest of the season. One caveat I do what to add is that I have felt for some time that, despite having top class form over the trip, Grands Crus may be best at trips short of three miles. Most of the 3m races he has run in haven’t been severe stamina tests as they have featured a steady early pace (Cleeve/World Hurdle etc.), and it was the same story here. They then accelerated markedly at around six out (note the fast sectionals from fences 13-15), before then paying for this effort and getting a bit tired in the closing stages. This ‘slow-slow-fast-medium’ pace structure is not at all conducive to clocking a good overall time, and so I am happy to forgive the moderate final time, but it again did little to convince me that Grands Crus is a natural three miler. Don’t get me wrong: when he encounters a strongly run race he may well prove that he stays 3m just fine. But his exuberant way of running, in combination with the fact that his closing sectionals (in what have often been moderately run 3m races) aren’t always entirely convincing, suggests to me that he could be vulnerable in races like the RSA Chase or Gold Cup if he goes down that route. He apparently goes for the Feltham at Kempton next, where his stamina again isn’t certain to be properly tested (flat, sharpish track and a race that often attracts only a small field), but if it looks like there is plenty of pace in there, I may well be looking to oppose Grands Crus at likely short odds.
This guy is working with personal National Hunt sectionals and is connected on Twitter with good guys in the racing scene. He put up a few selections on Twitter on the A.W long priced and some of 5/1 plus inclusive good National Hunt selections and Reviews his measured Sectionals of a good meeting and then decides if a winner, 2nd, 3rd is raised to much wieght for next time and is analysing in detail what suits certain runners.
Have a look what he said about Grands Crus win last time out looking at the sectionals he made:
14.10: Despite there only being four runners, this promised to be a fascinating novice chase beforehand, and it didn’t disappoint. Grands Crus defied his penalty to maintain his unbeaten start to life over fences, and he remains a fascinating prospect for the rest of the season. One caveat I do what to add is that I have felt for some time that, despite having top class form over the trip, Grands Crus may be best at trips short of three miles. Most of the 3m races he has run in haven’t been severe stamina tests as they have featured a steady early pace (Cleeve/World Hurdle etc.), and it was the same story here. They then accelerated markedly at around six out (note the fast sectionals from fences 13-15), before then paying for this effort and getting a bit tired in the closing stages. This ‘slow-slow-fast-medium’ pace structure is not at all conducive to clocking a good overall time, and so I am happy to forgive the moderate final time, but it again did little to convince me that Grands Crus is a natural three miler. Don’t get me wrong: when he encounters a strongly run race he may well prove that he stays 3m just fine. But his exuberant way of running, in combination with the fact that his closing sectionals (in what have often been moderately run 3m races) aren’t always entirely convincing, suggests to me that he could be vulnerable in races like the RSA Chase or Gold Cup if he goes down that route. He apparently goes for the Feltham at Kempton next, where his stamina again isn’t certain to be properly tested (flat, sharpish track and a race that often attracts only a small field), but if it looks like there is plenty of pace in there, I may well be looking to oppose Grands Crus at likely short odds.
The King George -- knew it was too good to be true
Ground could be tacky this afty according to the clerk of the course - that's a cop out for the clerk it could well be holding and a premium on staying plus down to 7 runners - you will need to have stamina on your side - that's going to make the market too silly for words - stayer yes ground no the only one with significant for could well be Somersby and no horse who hasn't done the 3miles has won this yet ---Long Run will stay and stay and stay and has decent form the ground looks to be the best suited after all -- Have bunged a few quid on the complete outsider Golan Way who jumped like a stag out of the ground g/sft can take these fences and distance - its leaps over the railway fences at sandown makes it no forlorn chance - outclassed yes - decent animal for sure.
have for my sins and the boos of my friends layed kauto Star -- if it wins there just aint no reason for my method of selection!
have a great day guys glued to the telly at least
Bob
have for my sins and the boos of my friends layed kauto Star -- if it wins there just aint no reason for my method of selection!
have a great day guys glued to the telly at least
Bob
Saturday, 24 December 2011
Boxing Day!
2.00 Kempton Novice Chase Class 1
Bobs Worth will get a fast pace and I think there is value in these odds imo, as this plays into the strengths against Grand Crus.
Mr Moonshine 26 BSP is a bit overpriced here I think, its one of my notes horses that I like to play, when its attending a small field and today it has a 6 runner field. It ran a decent race LTO against very classy animal troughout in the field and I think it can make the frame. It has at least great potential to trade way lower and its a great value at these prices I think. The Ground if it stays Good is a nother positive.
Edit: Grands Crus ran such a cracker happy to loose my money :)
1.25 Kempton Novice Hcp Chase
ThatllDoBoy 6.6 BSP
is also on my notes to follow list, had 2nd LTO a strong win in Newbury and found LTO just one better stayer on the Cheltenham Hill in an again very fast race and I think at these odds its a fair bet again, as this horse is really fast and stays.
Edit: Drifted heavily upto 12+ and fell at the last :( trading at 2.0 Inrunning beginning to attack the leader.
2.10 Market Rasen HH4
Yahraab down in Class with Soft Ground and Long Runin in great Form worth a bet to me with odds of 26 drifted
08/12/11 2m HH3 G-S
Very good gallop early under testing windy conditions with the leaders tiring heavily on the runin and YAHRAB found the bit Stamina left and went home. Its a small-medium sized horse and I see it winning on a testing track with a good pace.
Result: Ended a 4th
End of Day Result: Poor run continues time to collect my mind.
Bobs Worth will get a fast pace and I think there is value in these odds imo, as this plays into the strengths against Grand Crus.
Mr Moonshine 26 BSP is a bit overpriced here I think, its one of my notes horses that I like to play, when its attending a small field and today it has a 6 runner field. It ran a decent race LTO against very classy animal troughout in the field and I think it can make the frame. It has at least great potential to trade way lower and its a great value at these prices I think. The Ground if it stays Good is a nother positive.
Edit: Grands Crus ran such a cracker happy to loose my money :)
1.25 Kempton Novice Hcp Chase
ThatllDoBoy 6.6 BSP
is also on my notes to follow list, had 2nd LTO a strong win in Newbury and found LTO just one better stayer on the Cheltenham Hill in an again very fast race and I think at these odds its a fair bet again, as this horse is really fast and stays.
Edit: Drifted heavily upto 12+ and fell at the last :( trading at 2.0 Inrunning beginning to attack the leader.
2.10 Market Rasen HH4
Yahraab down in Class with Soft Ground and Long Runin in great Form worth a bet to me with odds of 26 drifted
08/12/11 2m HH3 G-S
Very good gallop early under testing windy conditions with the leaders tiring heavily on the runin and YAHRAB found the bit Stamina left and went home. Its a small-medium sized horse and I see it winning on a testing track with a good pace.
Result: Ended a 4th
End of Day Result: Poor run continues time to collect my mind.
William Hill King George VI Chase 2011 - 3.10 Kempton
There are 8 runners declared for the king George - lets hope they all go to post for some cracking each way bets - St Stephens Day or Boxing Day, depending on which side of the Irish Sea you reside, is the busiest race day of the year, and the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton is the big race of the day. It has been won by many of the greatest steeplechasers in the history of NH racing and in the last decade champions such as Best Mate, Kicking King and Kauto Star have taken it. Last year Long Run denied Kauto Star a fifth straight success in the race before going on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup and he will be attempting to win the race again this year.
Age (for age stats we'll assume last season’s race was run in 2010)
5yo: 1-0-2
6yo: 2-4-13
7yo: 3-6-19
8yo: 1-3-28
9yo: 2-2-19
10yo: 0-4-10
11+: 1-0-9
Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 6-10-34.
Compare that to horses aged 8 or older (4-9-65).
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won on last completed start (2 exceptions placed)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season (only Long Run !)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 of the 2 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+) that cuts it down it a bit includes kauto Star Long Run Nacarat and Diamond Harry))
9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases (Excludes Diamond Harry and captain Chris)
10 of 10 winners had won 2 or more grade 1 chases
7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD (excludes Golan Way)
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Long Run): 44011113 (4-1-8)
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Long Run): 1111 (4-0-4)
Betfair Chase winner (Kauto Star): P1171 (3-0-5)
John Durkan Chase winner: 151 (2-0-3)
Peterborough Chase winner: 14334P (1-2-6)
Aintree Bowl winner (Nacarat): 443P3P2 (0-2-7)
Melling Chase winner (Master Minded): 653P (0-1-4)
Pendil Novice Chase winner (Captain Chris): PP (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 221111
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) ran in Betfair Chase, finishing 311U1
3 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 321
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing
9 of 10 winners (last 9) ran in a grade 1 chase at Cheltenham Festival
5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 11121
2 of 2 second season chasers to win had placed in Arkle or RSA
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-2-12) has won the race four times with Kauto Star.
Henrietta Knight (2-3-10) has won this with Edredon Bleu and Best Mate in the past 10 years.
Nicky Henderson (1-5-11) saddled the first 2 home last season and has seen over half his 11 representatives make the frame.
Irish-trained runners (3-0-7) have produced 3 winners from 7 runners since 2001.
Price
7 of 10 favourites have won and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 5.56.
Edredon Blue at 25/1 in 2003 has been only one winner to be sent off at odds greater than 8/1 in the past 10 years.
Conclusion:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- Has run 1 to 3 times this season
- Won last time out in the past 40 days
- Won over 3M+
- Won 2 or more Grade 1 chases
- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD
- Finished in first 2 in 2010 King George and/or Gold Cup
- Finished in first 3 in the Betfair Chase
- Trained by P Nicholls, N Henderson, Ms H Knight or in Ireland
- Favourite (priced no bigger than 8/1)
The picture of current betting is based on the ground remaining good and its predicted as such -
but last year saw panic and pandemonium as the weather tightened up and the race was
delayed until the 15 of January when the going on the day was back to g/soft ..and long Run won
by a very easy 12l --- Am interested in Captain Chris - on its breeding from kings Theatre it
should get the 3m+ it is a real athlete of a horse that Arches its back like best mate used to -
winner of the Arkle he looked like a 3mile chaser at the beginning of the race slow into stride -
but finished like very few I have seen up the cheltenham Hill - have waited in anticipation for its
first attempt at the distance is a gorgeous horse and will be taking the odds -
These days, the Arkle seems to be going to a horse thought to need further and perhaps the most impressive aspect of this win was his jumping, which many had worried about beforehand as he´d shown a tendency to jump right. Kept wide early, once Johnson realised the horse had his eye in he started firing him at his fences and he came up every time, being switched inside at the top of the hill, and the result looked inevitable once he more or less drew alongside the runner-up, who had already expended plenty of energy, at the first in the straight.
good luck in the selections which I am looking forwards to
Bob
Thursday, 22 December 2011
Well nothing till Boxing day !
will put up three big race trends and stats well before then -
happy Christmas all
Bob and Family
Gamble?
14.10 Hereford
Grams and Ounces has nothing in the Form Book and is gambled down from 8,0 to 2,99 in this event. This is a crazy gamble! I looked at 5.00 o clock in the morning and this horse had matched 6000 from 8000 total market value at a price of 8,0 BSP, now down to 2.99 and is certainly not a horse, that can be picked from the form.
Follow or not?
Significant early market horses overnight were today at Hereford,there was 5000 plus matched at around 5 0 clock in the morning.
Chestnut Ben (Won steamed from 3.0 overnight into 2,36)
Mallusk ( Lost drifted out late)
Sherwani Wolf ( Non Runner)
Grams and Ounces (Won Steamed from 8.0 overnight into under 2,5)
Grams and Ounces has nothing in the Form Book and is gambled down from 8,0 to 2,99 in this event. This is a crazy gamble! I looked at 5.00 o clock in the morning and this horse had matched 6000 from 8000 total market value at a price of 8,0 BSP, now down to 2.99 and is certainly not a horse, that can be picked from the form.
Follow or not?
Significant early market horses overnight were today at Hereford,there was 5000 plus matched at around 5 0 clock in the morning.
Chestnut Ben (Won steamed from 3.0 overnight into 2,36)
Mallusk ( Lost drifted out late)
Sherwani Wolf ( Non Runner)
Grams and Ounces (Won Steamed from 8.0 overnight into under 2,5)
2.40 Sedgefield good to soft 221211
Short Supply is the class act in this field even though he has reach a mark that is his best achieved so far on my ratings - has a First time T Tie today and will be hard to beat - not ridden by Walford today and the claimer may help it and he rides this track well . only just caught by the favvy last time on the run in with Its Too Early seemingly heavily penalized.
Take a long hard look at Gillies ridden Barello Road - and my fav lil jock Campbell Gillies - this one is thrown in off this mark today Luncinda seldom take a horse to Sedgefield ran its best race by far last time at Mussleburgh at 100/1 Grape Tree Road animal will not mind the ground .
Take a long hard look at Gillies ridden Barello Road - and my fav lil jock Campbell Gillies - this one is thrown in off this mark today Luncinda seldom take a horse to Sedgefield ran its best race by far last time at Mussleburgh at 100/1 Grape Tree Road animal will not mind the ground .
Wednesday, 21 December 2011
Racing!
2.40 Hereford 2m5f Hcp Chase
Mud Monkey OFF a mark of 118
Betfair SP 18 Place SP 5,0
Front Runner Mud Monkey will profit from the easy track and the downhill runin and is down in class with a good weight and TJ O Brien is booked, travelled nicely LTO in a truly run Ch3 and just Fell when good in contention, will force the pace tomorrow and has a big shout. Odds of 17+ are very value.
Finished 3 length to 131 unadjusted Midnight appeal in 2nd
Finished 3/4 length to Double The Trouble 126 unadjusted in 2nd
I think its a great chance to dominate a field on an easy track for this horse under TJ Obrien, so these odds will hopefully steam tomorrow.
Sherwani Wolf could be a real candidate, that will steam in tomorrow, LTO 11 lenghts against useful Invictus and raced before in Newbury, has now 2 very high class races and will love the easy track and the easier opposition. Steamed in already in form 7.0-4.0 and is a bit short for me at these odds.
Here are my other two bets I play very small,
Hereford 1.10 2m Ch5
Sablazo
Raced LTO in a pretty decent Ch5 event in Ludlow with two decent progressing types and simply got outpaced as this was a strong pace and stopped at the 2m2f mark after chasing the leaders pretty well, Won before on Soft Ground a 2m2f in Fontwell and I think this track and lower distance of 2m coupled with the ground should suit much more. I dont see a stand out progressing type in this race so odds of 15 should be value for this horse. Its really a weak Class 5 event, so everything can happen there.
1 Unit Win 15,0 Betfair SP
Hereford 2.10 2m4f HH4
Picot De Say
I think this horse represents a good value in this weak HH4 contest. It changed the stable but raced LTO a decent 2nd to American Art and what I really like is the form finishing 2nd to Caddie Master an 120+ rated runner with 3 lenghts. Is racing off a mark 110 today and can also win here. odds of 20 on the exchanges are a bit extreme I think.
1 Points Win 20,0 Betfair SP
Note: Heavy gambled down favourite!!!!!!
Good Luck!
Mud Monkey OFF a mark of 118
Betfair SP 18 Place SP 5,0
Front Runner Mud Monkey will profit from the easy track and the downhill runin and is down in class with a good weight and TJ O Brien is booked, travelled nicely LTO in a truly run Ch3 and just Fell when good in contention, will force the pace tomorrow and has a big shout. Odds of 17+ are very value.
Finished 3 length to 131 unadjusted Midnight appeal in 2nd
Finished 3/4 length to Double The Trouble 126 unadjusted in 2nd
I think its a great chance to dominate a field on an easy track for this horse under TJ Obrien, so these odds will hopefully steam tomorrow.
Sherwani Wolf could be a real candidate, that will steam in tomorrow, LTO 11 lenghts against useful Invictus and raced before in Newbury, has now 2 very high class races and will love the easy track and the easier opposition. Steamed in already in form 7.0-4.0 and is a bit short for me at these odds.
Here are my other two bets I play very small,
Hereford 1.10 2m Ch5
Sablazo
Raced LTO in a pretty decent Ch5 event in Ludlow with two decent progressing types and simply got outpaced as this was a strong pace and stopped at the 2m2f mark after chasing the leaders pretty well, Won before on Soft Ground a 2m2f in Fontwell and I think this track and lower distance of 2m coupled with the ground should suit much more. I dont see a stand out progressing type in this race so odds of 15 should be value for this horse. Its really a weak Class 5 event, so everything can happen there.
1 Unit Win 15,0 Betfair SP
Hereford 2.10 2m4f HH4
Picot De Say
I think this horse represents a good value in this weak HH4 contest. It changed the stable but raced LTO a decent 2nd to American Art and what I really like is the form finishing 2nd to Caddie Master an 120+ rated runner with 3 lenghts. Is racing off a mark 110 today and can also win here. odds of 20 on the exchanges are a bit extreme I think.
1 Points Win 20,0 Betfair SP
Note: Heavy gambled down favourite!!!!!!
Good Luck!
1435 Ludlow 3m Handicap Chase
Copied from my blog
Sorry its a bit late today, family commitments called but i've looked at the 1435 at Ludlow and heres my considered opinion.
1435 Ludlow 3m Handicap Chase
CAST CADA – Only win over fences was a lucky one, no show on reappearance though could feasibly come on for that run but may need better ground than he’s going to encounter here.
FORT VIEW – Ex-Hunter who’s rules record is 1-0-4(w-p-r), 2lb higher than last win but well beaten both starts this term and best watched for now.
TEN FIRES – Was getting involved in the finish but crashed out at the final fence on his last run in Ireland, debut for new yard and if conditions worsen then he could become an e/w player.
EDGEOVER – Chase record 1-1-5, resumed over hurdles after 538 day layoff due to injury finishing a well held 3rd, back over fences here off 9lb higher than his hurdle mark and may struggle over trip possibly too far.
TIME FOR SPRING – Promising Chase debut in Oct & ran well in hot Cheltenham handicap next start, he has more to offer over 3m, conditions suit, tho’ he would not want it too soft. Major Player.
MADE IN TIME – Useful hurdler, 1-0-2 over fences, UR last time but dangerous to dismiss as conditions suit here, though I have a sneaking suspicion that he’s better going left handed.
PYRACANTHA – Looks to be on the downgrade, dropped 20lb in 7 runs, possibly needs better ground and easily dismissed.
CHESAPEAKE – Chase record 2-2-7 but all form on better ground, PU latest and best watched.
BATTLECRY – Trainer has 50% record in this race so one to consider, broke his chase maiden last time (1-10-26 over fences), up 8lb and should be there at the finish with conditions suiting.
ALWAYS BOLD – Didn’t enjoy chasing when last tried, in and out over hurdles since and best watched on return to fences.
ONLY WITNESS – Chase record 0-1-4 but best run last time up 5lb for that effort but capable claimer on board here and there could be more to come, shortlisted.
VERDICT
I’m left with a shortlist of three and am keen to take on the likely fav Made In Time, so Time For Spring is the one with improvement expected, Only Witness and Battlecry can bustle him up.
Wednesday 21st December 2011
Am going back to my post of a few days ago and looking for big runs from the Daly Yard at Ludlow. He has two entries - Toby Belch in the 1.00 and Zahirah Moon in the 3.10
Zahirah makes the most appeal for the long shot naps table - bred from Grape Tree Road will handle the going well and as Daly trains just down the road think it has chances - bit of a head strong animal in its bumpers and the jock knocked out of the saddle by a faller on its first hdle attempt .
The Bumper and will be looking for a big run from Twiston Bugger horse Peg Leg dropped back down to 1m6f this animal is a natural front runner has the boy wonder taking off 7lbs
Family calls so again will not be able to watch the races today back later to see how you all get on!
Good Luck
Bob
Zahirah makes the most appeal for the long shot naps table - bred from Grape Tree Road will handle the going well and as Daly trains just down the road think it has chances - bit of a head strong animal in its bumpers and the jock knocked out of the saddle by a faller on its first hdle attempt .
The Bumper and will be looking for a big run from Twiston Bugger horse Peg Leg dropped back down to 1m6f this animal is a natural front runner has the boy wonder taking off 7lbs
Family calls so again will not be able to watch the races today back later to see how you all get on!
Good Luck
Bob
Tuesday, 20 December 2011
Antepost!
Im thinking about two Antepost bets for the Cheltenham Festival and would like to know what you think about these horses?
The first one is Galaxy Rock in one of the 3m+ Chases on the Festival, this horse impressed me in a Cheltenham Chase with Carruthers making a strong pace and the form worked out really well in that race, Carruther went on to win Hennessy Gold Cup and West End Rocker went on to win the Beechers Chase...
Galaxy Rock looked to won easily this race and has plenty of Stamina.
The other horse that impressed me is Poungach for 2m6+ events in Cheltenham, the way he cruised in the last furlongs in the Sandown race, was quite impressive to me.
Any ideas?
I will come later or tommorow, go playing soccer now.
Cheers rade!
The first one is Galaxy Rock in one of the 3m+ Chases on the Festival, this horse impressed me in a Cheltenham Chase with Carruthers making a strong pace and the form worked out really well in that race, Carruther went on to win Hennessy Gold Cup and West End Rocker went on to win the Beechers Chase...
Galaxy Rock looked to won easily this race and has plenty of Stamina.
The other horse that impressed me is Poungach for 2m6+ events in Cheltenham, the way he cruised in the last furlongs in the Sandown race, was quite impressive to me.
Any ideas?
I will come later or tommorow, go playing soccer now.
Cheers rade!
bumper at muss 3.25 201211
taking a chance on two here Walser who impressed me last time with a burst of speed but has to come the other way round today - gets in without a penalty and Nodda High Kid running with a penalty but anther who could perform better again this surface sir harry lewis animal with more to come - am dutching them each way
Monday, 19 December 2011
20/12/2011
Taunton 2.00 3m1f
Whispering Jack 12,5 Betfair SP
could be well handicapped for this race. Finished LTO in a hot Sandown Saturday meeting in a truly run race a decent 5th. This was a testing affair upthehill, because it was really a fast gallop right from the beginning of the race and considering the circumstances of this race the 5th place is for me a strong improved effort. This 6 year old finished before already online with Kasbadali a good comparison horse, because the hot fav in todays race finished 3 lenghth behind this horse and has a whole lot of weight today and is still considered 4.0 BSP fav.
I think Prince Tom is overrated as the HH1G3 race wasnt as strong and the horses, that finished in front of him couldnt prove in this class and are more consider Class 2-4 level horses.
The Winner of Whispering Jacks race in Sandown Poungach is a horse I consider Class 1 winning level, Cantlow is OR139,Safran De Cotte won a HH2 12k race one race later, so to me the horses that finished LTO in front of Whispering Jack are really very strong sorts. Here are the sectional times of the Sandown meeting Im talking about. Looking at the sectionals you can see that the Winner Poungach(impressive closing sectionals) must be noted for the future to win soon a HH1 race and the other race with decent sorts like Edgardo Sol, Via Galilei, Ubi Ace as comparison maybe a bit wrong as I think it was tactical race against Edgardo Sol trying to slow down the pace, but its still a Class 1 and the sectional times of the 2m6f HH2 race are quite impressive in comparison to the Class 1 race. Another positive is that Mann and Fehily have a 20% + at this course.
I have a worry though, maybe the race LTO was so hard that 17 days break are not enough.
Video Link:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,473411_3,00.html
Fence to Fence Sectionals Sandown 03/12/11
2m6f HH2 Winner Poungach OR 137
Fin
00:00:16.19 00:05:19.98
00:00:14.87 00:05:03.78
00:00:58.73 00:04:48.91
00:00:12.95 00:03:50.17
00:00:18.74 00:03:37.21
00:00:13.21 00:03:18.47
00:01:16.27 00:03:05.25
00:00:15.72 00:01:48.97
00:01:00.73 00:01:33.25
00:00:13.94 00:00:32.51
00:00:18.57 00:00:18.57
Fence 1
2m1f HH1 Listed Winner Ubi Ace OR 133
Fin
00:00:16.57 00:03:46.39
00:00:16.16 00:03:29.82
00:00:58.32 00:03:13.66
00:00:13.33 00:02:15.33
00:00:19.09 00:02:01.99
00:00:13.27 00:01:42.90
00:01:14.11 00:01:29.62
00:00:15.50 00:00:15.50
Fence 1
Whispering Jack 12,5 Betfair SP
could be well handicapped for this race. Finished LTO in a hot Sandown Saturday meeting in a truly run race a decent 5th. This was a testing affair upthehill, because it was really a fast gallop right from the beginning of the race and considering the circumstances of this race the 5th place is for me a strong improved effort. This 6 year old finished before already online with Kasbadali a good comparison horse, because the hot fav in todays race finished 3 lenghth behind this horse and has a whole lot of weight today and is still considered 4.0 BSP fav.
I think Prince Tom is overrated as the HH1G3 race wasnt as strong and the horses, that finished in front of him couldnt prove in this class and are more consider Class 2-4 level horses.
The Winner of Whispering Jacks race in Sandown Poungach is a horse I consider Class 1 winning level, Cantlow is OR139,Safran De Cotte won a HH2 12k race one race later, so to me the horses that finished LTO in front of Whispering Jack are really very strong sorts. Here are the sectional times of the Sandown meeting Im talking about. Looking at the sectionals you can see that the Winner Poungach(impressive closing sectionals) must be noted for the future to win soon a HH1 race and the other race with decent sorts like Edgardo Sol, Via Galilei, Ubi Ace as comparison maybe a bit wrong as I think it was tactical race against Edgardo Sol trying to slow down the pace, but its still a Class 1 and the sectional times of the 2m6f HH2 race are quite impressive in comparison to the Class 1 race. Another positive is that Mann and Fehily have a 20% + at this course.
I have a worry though, maybe the race LTO was so hard that 17 days break are not enough.
Video Link:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,473411_3,00.html
Fence to Fence Sectionals Sandown 03/12/11
2m6f HH2 Winner Poungach OR 137
Fin
00:00:16.19 00:05:19.98
00:00:14.87 00:05:03.78
00:00:58.73 00:04:48.91
00:00:12.95 00:03:50.17
00:00:18.74 00:03:37.21
00:00:13.21 00:03:18.47
00:01:16.27 00:03:05.25
00:00:15.72 00:01:48.97
00:01:00.73 00:01:33.25
00:00:13.94 00:00:32.51
00:00:18.57 00:00:18.57
Fence 1
2m1f HH1 Listed Winner Ubi Ace OR 133
Fin
00:00:16.57 00:03:46.39
00:00:16.16 00:03:29.82
00:00:58.32 00:03:13.66
00:00:13.33 00:02:15.33
00:00:19.09 00:02:01.99
00:00:13.27 00:01:42.90
00:01:14.11 00:01:29.62
00:00:15.50 00:00:15.50
Fence 1
Bangor Thoughts
1240 - This looks on paper to be a really weak Class 4 chase and as such, I'm
going to take a chance on Tafika, conditions suit and in form trainer says a mark of 113 is workable.
1310 - Nicky Henderson trained hurdle newcomer Featherintheattic has been smashed in the betting, trainer jockey combo has a excellent course S/R but Kings Grace could be the value as he's really highly regarded by McCain and even though it was disappointing to see him so quickly beaten last time he deserves another chance to build on that debut promise. The stewards enquired into his running, but connections could offer no explanation.
1340 - Makes no appeal as a betting medium.
1410 - Rowen Tiger appears to have been found an opportunity to score here and looks a solid fav. Bathwick Brave and Doynosaur can fill the places.
1440 - The Jennie Candlish trained Ebony River should take all the beating on all known form. It looks a poor race to me and one in which this former Donald McCain in-mate can finally get off the mark after a couple of placed efforts. There is plenty of room for improvement in his jumping department, but he is still lightly raced over hurdles and majority of his mistakes are just novicey errors which will be ironed out with experience. As a son of Alderbrook the soft ground will hold absolutely no terrors for him and I fully expect this one to be stepping up to the plate tomorrow, and registering a first career success under rules.
1510 - Royal Reverie - Curtis / McCoy team up here with this newcomer who was rated 75 on the flat, this looks solid e/w material.
1540 - I'll leave the bumper for Bob.
going to take a chance on Tafika, conditions suit and in form trainer says a mark of 113 is workable.
1310 - Nicky Henderson trained hurdle newcomer Featherintheattic has been smashed in the betting, trainer jockey combo has a excellent course S/R but Kings Grace could be the value as he's really highly regarded by McCain and even though it was disappointing to see him so quickly beaten last time he deserves another chance to build on that debut promise. The stewards enquired into his running, but connections could offer no explanation.
1340 - Makes no appeal as a betting medium.
1410 - Rowen Tiger appears to have been found an opportunity to score here and looks a solid fav. Bathwick Brave and Doynosaur can fill the places.
1440 - The Jennie Candlish trained Ebony River should take all the beating on all known form. It looks a poor race to me and one in which this former Donald McCain in-mate can finally get off the mark after a couple of placed efforts. There is plenty of room for improvement in his jumping department, but he is still lightly raced over hurdles and majority of his mistakes are just novicey errors which will be ironed out with experience. As a son of Alderbrook the soft ground will hold absolutely no terrors for him and I fully expect this one to be stepping up to the plate tomorrow, and registering a first career success under rules.
1510 - Royal Reverie - Curtis / McCoy team up here with this newcomer who was rated 75 on the flat, this looks solid e/w material.
1540 - I'll leave the bumper for Bob.
Monday 19th Plumpton and Bangor _( anyone want to analyse Bangor?)
Ground at Plumpton is soft with rain forecast for midday and that going will change to heavy if it does
Bangor Hurdle course: Good to soft Chase course: Soft, heavy in places Weather: Dry overnight and expected to be a dry day (+2C at 7am). Possibility of rain arriving around 10am.
if it does come you can change the analyser to soft no problems
Interesting card at Plumpton should give us some decent chances - Novice chase at 1.00 Cucumber Run is hot favvy and it won its last race in non too convincing style in my book this way round will suit it that's for sure Henderson has brought it here from Ludlow in the hope this tighter track will help its tendency to jump left handed --( if it wins and wins well take a look at the 1.30 where Moore runs the long shot Dragons Roost who beat cucumber run easily in a soft ground bumper at Newbury) it hasn't done anything over hdles but A grandson of useful jumper Nancy Myles, who loved heavy ground)
back to the 1.00 the grounds the thing and I expect a big run from the mare Lady Willa who is running again since Saturday she will Relish the ground deep these easier fences will play to her strength - only a little mare and the outsider of the four entered - she has a tongue Tie first time and is no forlorn run today.
Back to the 1.30 and really like the chances of Edlomond who was outclassed by that very promising animal Swincome Flame at Exeter on soft ground is coming to hand nicely for its third run and fitness on its side with the "zippiness" curtailed looks the likeliest winner at long odds is only just behind the favvy Ohio Gold on form and the ground will be the key - dont forget Moores Dragons Roost who is taking some money from its long 999/1 early show into around 40s at the moment!
2.00 Plumpton 3miles 2f marathon Zimbabwi is in great form but cannot see it ever running two races alike and will put up Its A Classic to win this one after running home behind that one here last time it was carrying nearly a stone more and finished like a train is the only one in the race with distance plus form - watch out for Sue Smith Jordan first time fencing today is a proven head down stayer over hdles and Harvey Smith will have got this one jumping and they have booked Tom Cannon who is a big plus when he rides here is a mare who can run teeth out and a big price at the current 16s betfair
2.30 Dont Like backing Andrew Thornton in anything but staying races 2.30 the returning Hazy Bay has chances (if you ignore the jockey) and money would be significant for this one today its a confirmed stayer but its a hard race and too many unknowns really for a bet of any significance
3.00 you had to be slightly impressed with Manmoon run here last time this is its going and a flat out runner who is good for the BTL stakes cannot see Ballyman beating it on this going and will be looking for the match bet
3.30 will sty with Just Beware on this going and is ready to win IMo she will be easy to back in running as she takes time to warm up she is a game un and really fancy her chances today
good luck today guys
Bob
Bangor Hurdle course: Good to soft Chase course: Soft, heavy in places Weather: Dry overnight and expected to be a dry day (+2C at 7am). Possibility of rain arriving around 10am.
if it does come you can change the analyser to soft no problems
Interesting card at Plumpton should give us some decent chances - Novice chase at 1.00 Cucumber Run is hot favvy and it won its last race in non too convincing style in my book this way round will suit it that's for sure Henderson has brought it here from Ludlow in the hope this tighter track will help its tendency to jump left handed --( if it wins and wins well take a look at the 1.30 where Moore runs the long shot Dragons Roost who beat cucumber run easily in a soft ground bumper at Newbury) it hasn't done anything over hdles but A grandson of useful jumper Nancy Myles, who loved heavy ground)
back to the 1.00 the grounds the thing and I expect a big run from the mare Lady Willa who is running again since Saturday she will Relish the ground deep these easier fences will play to her strength - only a little mare and the outsider of the four entered - she has a tongue Tie first time and is no forlorn run today.
Back to the 1.30 and really like the chances of Edlomond who was outclassed by that very promising animal Swincome Flame at Exeter on soft ground is coming to hand nicely for its third run and fitness on its side with the "zippiness" curtailed looks the likeliest winner at long odds is only just behind the favvy Ohio Gold on form and the ground will be the key - dont forget Moores Dragons Roost who is taking some money from its long 999/1 early show into around 40s at the moment!
2.00 Plumpton 3miles 2f marathon Zimbabwi is in great form but cannot see it ever running two races alike and will put up Its A Classic to win this one after running home behind that one here last time it was carrying nearly a stone more and finished like a train is the only one in the race with distance plus form - watch out for Sue Smith Jordan first time fencing today is a proven head down stayer over hdles and Harvey Smith will have got this one jumping and they have booked Tom Cannon who is a big plus when he rides here is a mare who can run teeth out and a big price at the current 16s betfair
2.30 Dont Like backing Andrew Thornton in anything but staying races 2.30 the returning Hazy Bay has chances (if you ignore the jockey) and money would be significant for this one today its a confirmed stayer but its a hard race and too many unknowns really for a bet of any significance
3.00 you had to be slightly impressed with Manmoon run here last time this is its going and a flat out runner who is good for the BTL stakes cannot see Ballyman beating it on this going and will be looking for the match bet
3.30 will sty with Just Beware on this going and is ready to win IMo she will be easy to back in running as she takes time to warm up she is a game un and really fancy her chances today
good luck today guys
Bob
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