14.55 Warwick
My only bet today will be Pacha Du Polder, who jumps very boldy and this track will suit I think, after the drift very value in this weaker race. I think LTO was really not a form mark.
Pacha Du Polder 2.2 BSP
GL!
BOOOM! Easy win, LTO the horse was never on terms and 2nd LTO it was taking a nice bold jumping performance against a nice horse, was really afterwards a price gift in that race against these donkeys. For the future, back in small fields with fences not too high, then it can jump boldly in its own rythm, can also win against classier animals i believe, but needs really this jumping rythm, which is better possible in small fields, nevertheless I think the poor performance in Ascot can be completely discarded, as it looked never even wanting to perfrom that day.
Thursday, 26 January 2012
Thursdays Thoughts
Finally got some time to look at some racing, its good to see im still top of the Dataform naps table, heres hoping I can kick on today.
Over to Ireland first and I like the look of ARNAUD in the 1305 @ Gowran Park, I was taken by the manner of his victory at Limerick on the 28/12/11, it was a vast improvement on his bumper run and he won cosily on his hurdle debut.
The big race of the day @1505 is the Thyestes Handicap Chase and I quietly fancy WESTERN CHARMER he has the size to carry a big weight and will strip a lot fitter than his last run @ Leopardstown over Christmas, he has some good Grade 1 form and is worth a few quid each way @ 25/1.
Off to the North East now and the one who takes my eye here is MAHFAL in the 1515, i've been waiting for him to step up in trip and over this 2m4f he should take all the beating.
And finally my local course Warwick, Alan King looks to have a few with big chances here today notably FIRE FIGHTER in the opening juvenile hurdle and GODSMEJUDGE in the 3m1f handicap hurdle, you also might want to throw in KEY TO THE WEST in to any multiples as he's McCoy's first ride back after his broken ribs and he's sure to be on a winner.
Happy Punting
Over to Ireland first and I like the look of ARNAUD in the 1305 @ Gowran Park, I was taken by the manner of his victory at Limerick on the 28/12/11, it was a vast improvement on his bumper run and he won cosily on his hurdle debut.
The big race of the day @1505 is the Thyestes Handicap Chase and I quietly fancy WESTERN CHARMER he has the size to carry a big weight and will strip a lot fitter than his last run @ Leopardstown over Christmas, he has some good Grade 1 form and is worth a few quid each way @ 25/1.
Off to the North East now and the one who takes my eye here is MAHFAL in the 1515, i've been waiting for him to step up in trip and over this 2m4f he should take all the beating.
And finally my local course Warwick, Alan King looks to have a few with big chances here today notably FIRE FIGHTER in the opening juvenile hurdle and GODSMEJUDGE in the 3m1f handicap hurdle, you also might want to throw in KEY TO THE WEST in to any multiples as he's McCoy's first ride back after his broken ribs and he's sure to be on a winner.
Happy Punting
2.45 Newcastle - 3mile chase soft ground
Going: Soft, Good to Soft in places Weather: 0.5mm overnight. Overcast with sunny spells expected today. Cool, between 5-6c and turning breezy later.
This is a decent race and the horse not entered but holds the key is lockstown and the animals that have run against him who are entered today.
Eyre Square got home in front of him in the kelso national over 4miles last time - this animal loves a battle and is still well in on its mark better ground suits though won its last on soft)
Morgan B has beaten Lockstown over 3miles at Hexham (handles soft and deeper)
Extalar was beaten 6l by Lockstown over 3m2f (handles soft)
Alanard went off joint fav with Lockstown but was brought down in the race.(wins on better ground)
Newcastle fences are not stiff and the run in is not as kelso but it is a stiff galloping track so with today's ground you really do need a horse that can act on it.
Morgan B is now 12 years old finishing behind Lockstown and Extalar when they met and the years do seem to be anchoring him.
Of the three my eye is taken by Extalar who will prefer these easier fences (has won over the stiffer fences at haydock) today and is off his winning mark. Was way too far up in class last time at Cheltenham against the likes of Mon Mome in a class 2 was still well in contention (till they showed their class against him) back down to this class 3 is my selection Currently 14.5 betfair
Bob
This is a decent race and the horse not entered but holds the key is lockstown and the animals that have run against him who are entered today.
Eyre Square got home in front of him in the kelso national over 4miles last time - this animal loves a battle and is still well in on its mark better ground suits though won its last on soft)
Morgan B has beaten Lockstown over 3miles at Hexham (handles soft and deeper)
Extalar was beaten 6l by Lockstown over 3m2f (handles soft)
Alanard went off joint fav with Lockstown but was brought down in the race.(wins on better ground)
Newcastle fences are not stiff and the run in is not as kelso but it is a stiff galloping track so with today's ground you really do need a horse that can act on it.
Morgan B is now 12 years old finishing behind Lockstown and Extalar when they met and the years do seem to be anchoring him.
Of the three my eye is taken by Extalar who will prefer these easier fences (has won over the stiffer fences at haydock) today and is off his winning mark. Was way too far up in class last time at Cheltenham against the likes of Mon Mome in a class 2 was still well in contention (till they showed their class against him) back down to this class 3 is my selection Currently 14.5 betfair
Bob
Thursday Racing 26th January 2012
Good to be back for the sport.
The Hospital visit was very positive and Taylor's are buoyed up by it - not out of the woods yet by a long way but hopes are high, Have done not much more than follow the blogs for the last few days Well done Rade your strike rate is improving in leaps and bounds
Mark has a very decent strike rate on his http://patientspeculation.blogspot.com/ for one a day - he does not give reasons for his selections which is a pity but the blog is worthy of a read and following.
Ben's three to follow from the weekend is well worthy of your notes pages guys.
And what in the world has happened to Martin?
Have taken a leave of absence from the Vfb naps table and will return to it at the weekend - who's winning and what's the lead?
Will take a look at today's cards later but in the meantime
NEWCASTLE
The Hospital visit was very positive and Taylor's are buoyed up by it - not out of the woods yet by a long way but hopes are high, Have done not much more than follow the blogs for the last few days Well done Rade your strike rate is improving in leaps and bounds
Mark has a very decent strike rate on his http://patientspeculation.blogspot.com/ for one a day - he does not give reasons for his selections which is a pity but the blog is worthy of a read and following.
Ben's three to follow from the weekend is well worthy of your notes pages guys.
And what in the world has happened to Martin?
Have taken a leave of absence from the Vfb naps table and will return to it at the weekend - who's winning and what's the lead?
Will take a look at today's cards later but in the meantime
NEWCASTLE
GOING: SOFT (Good to soft in places; GoingStick: 5.1) (Hurdle 7 (normally 1st in home straight) is now Hurdle 3 & located on downhill section of the course (2 flights there for today); this is to allow ground to recover)
WEATHER (Partly cloudy)
NON RUNNERS 2:15 Napoletano (5), 4:15 Florarossa (4)
WARWICKGOING: GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places on Hurdle course; GoingStick: Chase 6.8; Hurdle 6.3)
WEATHER (Sunny intervals)
GOWRAN PARKGOING: SOFT
Bob
Wednesday, 25 January 2012
Wednesday!
Hereford 2.30 Novice Hcp Chase Class 3
Lay Alpha Way 3,85 BSP
I noted it LTO in Taunton as a sectional Lay selection, when it won, didnt impress me from the closing stages and is raised 7 Pounds for this performance, will have a tough task now against better opposition up in class.
Gl rade!
Lay Alpha Way 3,85 BSP
I noted it LTO in Taunton as a sectional Lay selection, when it won, didnt impress me from the closing stages and is raised 7 Pounds for this performance, will have a tough task now against better opposition up in class.
Gl rade!
Tuesday, 24 January 2012
Tuesday!
Leicester 16.10 2m4f Hcp Hurdle HH4
My Tara 32 BSP is my pick here. Good sire and oof this mark thrown into a mark that is achievable and the last two outing were very promising. 2nd LTo against good likes like Hazy Tom in Wetherby over 2m110y made great headway and had a few mistakes that cost lenghts, LTo the same, in general this horse raced against classy opposition and is today really thrown into a weaker affair i think, with the only danger gambled Painter Man, that showed some class in Chases. The step up in trip will suit and the odds are great.
Tempest River in the 14.40 Novice Hurdles is one to follow on my list, runs Soft good sire and is in form, even when Baby Run is a danger, I will speculate on the Layoff and then I think the odds of 2.74 BSP are great value for this horse.
Edit: Baby Run won and looked all the time well fresh during the race, Tempest River was good 2nd beaten 4lenghts and pulled a bit hard in the race, it looked like it doesnt like right handed tracks, so left handed next time would be nice and the weight has to be considered today. Tempest River is strongly from the bridle, but the winner is a horse, that makes a move forward ann looked strong to me.
Thats for today.
My Tara 32 BSP is my pick here. Good sire and oof this mark thrown into a mark that is achievable and the last two outing were very promising. 2nd LTo against good likes like Hazy Tom in Wetherby over 2m110y made great headway and had a few mistakes that cost lenghts, LTo the same, in general this horse raced against classy opposition and is today really thrown into a weaker affair i think, with the only danger gambled Painter Man, that showed some class in Chases. The step up in trip will suit and the odds are great.
Tempest River in the 14.40 Novice Hurdles is one to follow on my list, runs Soft good sire and is in form, even when Baby Run is a danger, I will speculate on the Layoff and then I think the odds of 2.74 BSP are great value for this horse.
Edit: Baby Run won and looked all the time well fresh during the race, Tempest River was good 2nd beaten 4lenghts and pulled a bit hard in the race, it looked like it doesnt like right handed tracks, so left handed next time would be nice and the weight has to be considered today. Tempest River is strongly from the bridle, but the winner is a horse, that makes a move forward ann looked strong to me.
Thats for today.
Monday, 23 January 2012
Monday racing!
Wetherby 3.30 3m1f Hc Chase Class 4
Taking a bit of a wild punt here and laying the two favourites, which I dont fancy on this galloping track. There are several horses from the outsiders like Captain Nash, that will like the track I think and has a stable mate in this race, also I fancy La Pantera Rose and Pistol Basc fot this track, they just look all three like galloping types from their buildup and the two favourites are more thin horses that showed not too convincing perfromances on easy track Hereford and sharp track Taunton in my eyes LT0. Kilccomon Pride won, but against very poor opposition and weakening types late and Hopeful Start doesnt look like a stayer to me.
Lay Hopeful Start 2,7 BSP
Lay Killcommon Pride 3.3 BSP
Back Captain Nash 11,0 BSP
Edit: Hopeful Start won here, but Captain Nash ran a cracker and traded down to 2.7 Inrunning.One to watch out for. Again totally wrong on the Lays here, bugger, but it isnt so bad as it looks trough the low liability and the nice trade on Captain Nash.
Good Luck!
Taking a bit of a wild punt here and laying the two favourites, which I dont fancy on this galloping track. There are several horses from the outsiders like Captain Nash, that will like the track I think and has a stable mate in this race, also I fancy La Pantera Rose and Pistol Basc fot this track, they just look all three like galloping types from their buildup and the two favourites are more thin horses that showed not too convincing perfromances on easy track Hereford and sharp track Taunton in my eyes LT0. Kilccomon Pride won, but against very poor opposition and weakening types late and Hopeful Start doesnt look like a stayer to me.
Lay Hopeful Start 2,7 BSP
Lay Killcommon Pride 3.3 BSP
Back Captain Nash 11,0 BSP
Edit: Hopeful Start won here, but Captain Nash ran a cracker and traded down to 2.7 Inrunning.One to watch out for. Again totally wrong on the Lays here, bugger, but it isnt so bad as it looks trough the low liability and the nice trade on Captain Nash.
Good Luck!
Sunday, 22 January 2012
Paul Nichols - health warning
For the die hard's who back everything this trainer puts up regardless the past 14 days will have had them sucking their fingers and January as a whole has been poor - just a report that could have some substance is that the yard have had their horses "flu Jabbed" early in January
best months in his yard have been May June Sept/October last year that trend was broken by a good month in April rather than May --- Ok the weather last year at this time held the west country yards up a bit but just a thought on that break -- is he using January - when racing is more likely to be called off - to complete the inoculation's when the horses are less likely to go to the track?
Bob
best months in his yard have been May June Sept/October last year that trend was broken by a good month in April rather than May --- Ok the weather last year at this time held the west country yards up a bit but just a thought on that break -- is he using January - when racing is more likely to be called off - to complete the inoculation's when the horses are less likely to go to the track?
Bob
PETER MARSH CHASE (LIMITED HANDICAP) GRADE 2 RESULT
FROM THE RACING POST
only three were involved in the home straight. A dry night and high winds helped dry out the ground after 14mm of rain the previous day and the going remained heavy. Warwick is an easy track and the fences are not stiff - 11 ran TIME 6m 24.40s (slow by 33.40s) which is pretty good under the conditions
ACCORDING TO PETE, who ended a three-year losing run when winning the Rowland Meyrick last time from 8lb out of the handicap,was another 7lb higher here but that did not stop him. He went to the front early on the second circuit and galloped his rivals into submission. He goes well on a flat track and likes it here so, although he will take another hike up the weights for this, he could remain competitive in similar events, with the Grand National trial back here next month a possible target, although the Aintree race itself is also under consideration.
Pearlysteps, when ran really well before falling in the Tommy Whittle over C&D last time, was again never far away and rallied from before the final fence to get second. He has less experience than most of these and there could be a good handicap in him before the season is out.
Consigliere returned to form with a bang at Wincanton last time, having dropped in the weights. Racing off 9lb higher here and trying the trip for the first time, he was never far away and had his chance early in the straight before stamina became an issue. He is clearly in good heart and a drop back in trip next time will be in his favour.
having the winner was satisfying -having the forecast looked on the cards till Pearlysteps put in that one last effort - but that's the one to take as the improver no doubt about it - seemed to be hating the ground but stayed and stayed from the front and given a very good ride by Tinkler --
QUOTES: Malcolm Jefferson of According To Pete: "He might go for the Grand National. He had a hard enough race today so he may not come back here and instead go to Aintree fresh and well." Mon Mome´s jockey Aidan Coleman said: "It was too dead for him, he hates that ground these days and there are plenty of races on better ground."
Bob
only three were involved in the home straight. A dry night and high winds helped dry out the ground after 14mm of rain the previous day and the going remained heavy. Warwick is an easy track and the fences are not stiff - 11 ran TIME 6m 24.40s (slow by 33.40s) which is pretty good under the conditions
ACCORDING TO PETE, who ended a three-year losing run when winning the Rowland Meyrick last time from 8lb out of the handicap,was another 7lb higher here but that did not stop him. He went to the front early on the second circuit and galloped his rivals into submission. He goes well on a flat track and likes it here so, although he will take another hike up the weights for this, he could remain competitive in similar events, with the Grand National trial back here next month a possible target, although the Aintree race itself is also under consideration.
Pearlysteps, when ran really well before falling in the Tommy Whittle over C&D last time, was again never far away and rallied from before the final fence to get second. He has less experience than most of these and there could be a good handicap in him before the season is out.
Consigliere returned to form with a bang at Wincanton last time, having dropped in the weights. Racing off 9lb higher here and trying the trip for the first time, he was never far away and had his chance early in the straight before stamina became an issue. He is clearly in good heart and a drop back in trip next time will be in his favour.
having the winner was satisfying -having the forecast looked on the cards till Pearlysteps put in that one last effort - but that's the one to take as the improver no doubt about it - seemed to be hating the ground but stayed and stayed from the front and given a very good ride by Tinkler --
QUOTES: Malcolm Jefferson of According To Pete: "He might go for the Grand National. He had a hard enough race today so he may not come back here and instead go to Aintree fresh and well." Mon Mome´s jockey Aidan Coleman said: "It was too dead for him, he hates that ground these days and there are plenty of races on better ground."
Bob
Sunday
1.50 Fairyhouse
Tranquill Sea 8.2 BSP is my candidate in this, showed a great performance on this track 2010 and also his last efforts except 2nd LTO were pretty good. LTo looked very good upthehill against a good horse in Apt Approach and even if I see the favourite here the strongest I can see this horse place in this race. I watched the two videofinishes of Tranquil Sea and Blazing Tempo in Clonmel on Soft Ground and i prefer my selection at these odds by far to the prices of Blazing Tempo.
1.20 Fairyhouse
Is Herself about 14.0 BSP is a nice price I think in this race, improved rapidly the two starts LTO and I think can go the up in class at a big price. Has decent sire and Jockey on Board. I watched the video finishes of Is herself About,Ceol Rua and Oscar Business and I think that my selection has a chance to place, also looks quite beautiful this horse.
Tranquill Sea 8.2 BSP is my candidate in this, showed a great performance on this track 2010 and also his last efforts except 2nd LTO were pretty good. LTo looked very good upthehill against a good horse in Apt Approach and even if I see the favourite here the strongest I can see this horse place in this race. I watched the two videofinishes of Tranquil Sea and Blazing Tempo in Clonmel on Soft Ground and i prefer my selection at these odds by far to the prices of Blazing Tempo.
1.20 Fairyhouse
Is Herself about 14.0 BSP is a nice price I think in this race, improved rapidly the two starts LTO and I think can go the up in class at a big price. Has decent sire and Jockey on Board. I watched the video finishes of Is herself About,Ceol Rua and Oscar Business and I think that my selection has a chance to place, also looks quite beautiful this horse.
Saturday, 21 January 2012
Saturday 21st January 2012
Apologies for my absence from the blog this last week - family commitments and health issues dominate in the Taylor household - but hopefully most are becoming resolved and on the mend.
Great racing today in three races at least and though I don't have time for the usual stats here is the round up
Peter marsh chase at Haydock -
Only one of the favourites animals have won this in the last 8 running's
most Winners aged 8 (4) 9(2) 10(1) and last years winner aged 12
Prices mainly inside double figures though two long priced animals at 20/1 and 33/1
The trips the thing on this heavy ground and your looking for a horse with good recent form who can stay over this distance plus ( last years winner had an 80% strike rate from 6 runs at Distance plus)
I really do like According To Pete who showed a great return to previous form at Christmas achieving my mark of the low 150's and today runs off a mark of 142. harry Haynes gets on well with this animal who stays and stays at the front of the action - has run up a sequence in the past and was very taken with his win last time. However ---- Jefferson also runs the Kings theatre bred King Fontaine who was reported to have swallowed a mud clot (was up with the pace till fading out of it)when racing against According to Pete last time at Wetherby and has Costello riding today has the complete profile of past winners at the age of 9 will stay extreme distances is at the bottom of the weights and from the top sire .
Consigliere put up a fantastic performance at Wincanton last time and is in my notebook as a horse that has improved for the step up in distance, is also a horse that has been capable of putting in a sequence of wins on soft ground - he has not put it all together in big fields in the past so if any of my pennies go there it will be in running bet as its profile is one of betfair price going out and out for the first 2 miles!
The Victor Chandler chase Ascot 3.10 has a very lively market and the winner rarely comes from outside of the money - I am not in the camp of saying this is a good renewal of the race The Nichols Novice Al ferof is no doubt a good improving animal but a close win over For Non Stop at Sandown did not convince me - showed bags of guts butttttttt - When Master minded won the race as a comparative novice he beat home Tidal bay in the similar Sandown Contest! its a very funny old match of the gaes as well today with in the main 8yr olds taking the prize the majority of the field is 10! In a race where getting the trip of 2m 1f is paramount I cannot have Somersby even with the cheek pieces (no Tongue tie today)
The race that will produce the winner was at Kempton last time _ Finians Rainbow made a howler and any similar mistake will cook him today despite its wonderful late run to get home in front of Wishful Thinking and Oiseau De Nuit (had no trouble matching the front pair and was left in the lead five out. He maintained his advantage and his rider, who was unable to claim, fired him at the last trying to steal enough momentum to go on and win, but the horse didn´t come up for him and the pair dropped back into third.Jo Tizzard takes the ride today and is reported to be firing at home ) - so its a small bet Wishful and win/place market Oiseau for me (as long as all 8 line up)
The big handicap at Ascot is a pin job for the 3.45 and am staying with Renard for Venetia Williams who ran King Edmund very close around this track over shorter in a very fast run race coming late only to stumble at the last - always looked a stayer in his early running but its win have been around the 2mile mark - my instincts say he is able to get this distance though he has been clobbered by the handicapper he has still got scope and off avery decent mark for today's run I still say he can get it under Scudamore and rates my each way selection - hope there is a bit more cut than they suggest and ascot always runs slower than the prdictions
Good luck today guys
Bob
Great racing today in three races at least and though I don't have time for the usual stats here is the round up
Peter marsh chase at Haydock -
Only one of the favourites animals have won this in the last 8 running's
most Winners aged 8 (4) 9(2) 10(1) and last years winner aged 12
Prices mainly inside double figures though two long priced animals at 20/1 and 33/1
The trips the thing on this heavy ground and your looking for a horse with good recent form who can stay over this distance plus ( last years winner had an 80% strike rate from 6 runs at Distance plus)
I really do like According To Pete who showed a great return to previous form at Christmas achieving my mark of the low 150's and today runs off a mark of 142. harry Haynes gets on well with this animal who stays and stays at the front of the action - has run up a sequence in the past and was very taken with his win last time. However ---- Jefferson also runs the Kings theatre bred King Fontaine who was reported to have swallowed a mud clot (was up with the pace till fading out of it)when racing against According to Pete last time at Wetherby and has Costello riding today has the complete profile of past winners at the age of 9 will stay extreme distances is at the bottom of the weights and from the top sire .
Consigliere put up a fantastic performance at Wincanton last time and is in my notebook as a horse that has improved for the step up in distance, is also a horse that has been capable of putting in a sequence of wins on soft ground - he has not put it all together in big fields in the past so if any of my pennies go there it will be in running bet as its profile is one of betfair price going out and out for the first 2 miles!
The Victor Chandler chase Ascot 3.10 has a very lively market and the winner rarely comes from outside of the money - I am not in the camp of saying this is a good renewal of the race The Nichols Novice Al ferof is no doubt a good improving animal but a close win over For Non Stop at Sandown did not convince me - showed bags of guts butttttttt - When Master minded won the race as a comparative novice he beat home Tidal bay in the similar Sandown Contest! its a very funny old match of the gaes as well today with in the main 8yr olds taking the prize the majority of the field is 10! In a race where getting the trip of 2m 1f is paramount I cannot have Somersby even with the cheek pieces (no Tongue tie today)
The race that will produce the winner was at Kempton last time _ Finians Rainbow made a howler and any similar mistake will cook him today despite its wonderful late run to get home in front of Wishful Thinking and Oiseau De Nuit (had no trouble matching the front pair and was left in the lead five out. He maintained his advantage and his rider, who was unable to claim, fired him at the last trying to steal enough momentum to go on and win, but the horse didn´t come up for him and the pair dropped back into third.Jo Tizzard takes the ride today and is reported to be firing at home ) - so its a small bet Wishful and win/place market Oiseau for me (as long as all 8 line up)
The big handicap at Ascot is a pin job for the 3.45 and am staying with Renard for Venetia Williams who ran King Edmund very close around this track over shorter in a very fast run race coming late only to stumble at the last - always looked a stayer in his early running but its win have been around the 2mile mark - my instincts say he is able to get this distance though he has been clobbered by the handicapper he has still got scope and off avery decent mark for today's run I still say he can get it under Scudamore and rates my each way selection - hope there is a bit more cut than they suggest and ascot always runs slower than the prdictions
Good luck today guys
Bob
Saturday racing!
Haydock 4.05
It could be that Kayf Tara sired Mad Max 3.65 BSP is too classy for any of these opponents today. The horse beat a while ago Somersby by 9 length in a similar field size and raced from then just high class against the likes of Master Minded, Albertas Run, French Opera and so on. Finished just 15 length to Master Minded LTO and is thrown into a much weaker class race today. My analyser threw of this selection for Kayf Tara emr+9 Rating, which performs quite decent.
Ascot 1.00
Vieno Griego will be my BTL at 8.6 BSP for this race, back to Ascot again down trip and with less mistakes has all the chances to get it right this time on his loving stiff track. Made 2nd LTO a cracking race and over this distance should suit even more in a weaker field. Royal Charter could be well handicapped on his debut, but stick just to my selection for a BTL chance.
It could be that Kayf Tara sired Mad Max 3.65 BSP is too classy for any of these opponents today. The horse beat a while ago Somersby by 9 length in a similar field size and raced from then just high class against the likes of Master Minded, Albertas Run, French Opera and so on. Finished just 15 length to Master Minded LTO and is thrown into a much weaker class race today. My analyser threw of this selection for Kayf Tara emr+9 Rating, which performs quite decent.
Ascot 1.00
Vieno Griego will be my BTL at 8.6 BSP for this race, back to Ascot again down trip and with less mistakes has all the chances to get it right this time on his loving stiff track. Made 2nd LTO a cracking race and over this distance should suit even more in a weaker field. Royal Charter could be well handicapped on his debut, but stick just to my selection for a BTL chance.
Thursday, 19 January 2012
19-01-12 – 1550 - Taunton 2m3f Handicap Chase (2)
19-01-12 – 1550 - Taunton 2m3f Handicap Chase (2)
HOLMWOOD LEGEND – Cheltenham Festival handicap winner (off OR130) last season, now on OR145 and has shown nothing in two runs this term, 2-0-2(w-p-r) at Taunton, but his overall profile looks to be that of a Spring horse. Winter record 0-2-4 compared to Spring record of 3-2-6.
FISTRAL BEACH – Best when fresh as record shows 2-2-4(w-p-r) when break of 200 days plus. Has the class to be involved as Listed reappearance win shows but is a 54 day break enough and 2m3f looks a bit on the sharp side for him.
CHARIOT CHARGER - Returned from 20 months off to gain first win over fence last time out, up 8lb to OR138 and down in trip but he has conditions to suit and should go well if he doesn’t bounce.
MICHEAL FLIPS – Chase record of 1-1-5 (w-p-r) and best form when chasing Cue Card home on reappearance, not really gone on from that and down to winnable mark(has been backed this morning) but jumping looked a bit suspect last two runs in big fields.
PASSATO - Two decent efforts in good handicaps this season and only 3lb above last winning mark, conditions suit and should not be far away.
NOMECHEKI – Not always the best of jumpers, never won going right handed 0-1-4(w-p-r), best run since reappearance latest but not one to rely on.
ROUGHAM – Didn’t stay 2m5f latest but on winnable mark, needs to be able to dominate to run to his best, chance he’ll get taken on for the lead by Chariot Charger and down tools so overlooked.
GET IT ON – Chase record of 1-2-4(w-p-r) and looks progressive, conditions suit here and backed this morning so expected to be thereabouts off low weight.
MISTER STICKLER – Chase record of 2-2-9(w-p-r), sound jumper who possibly needs a bit more weight off to be competitive.
OUMEYADE – Looks to be on the decline and best avoided.
THE COCKNEY MACKEM – Consistent sort who doesn’t look the best of finishers, and step up in trip a concern.
VERDICT
Three against the field here Chariot Charger still looks well treated after his win last time, Passato looks solid E/W value but there is sure to be more to come from GET IT ON.
GET IT ON 1 point win @ 6/1 BOG with Victor Chandler.
Horses to follow Update!
Rade said:
"I noted Tetlami and Vulcanite from the Class 2 Novice Hurdle run in Kempton that day as the time sectionals and also the closing sectionals of that race compare very nice with the Hurdle race Binocular,Overturn raced in. So there should be every chance to get a a Novice Hurdle again for both of them and there are on my tracker list. Tetlami is 5 year old and Vulcanite had his first Hurdle Start as a 4 year old. Both horses for the future."
Vulcanite yesterday easy winner in the 14.15 Novice Hurdles in Southwell, I missed it cause ATR sends out the message very late, so that I didnt check again. Still one for the future I think this horse.
"I noted Tetlami and Vulcanite from the Class 2 Novice Hurdle run in Kempton that day as the time sectionals and also the closing sectionals of that race compare very nice with the Hurdle race Binocular,Overturn raced in. So there should be every chance to get a a Novice Hurdle again for both of them and there are on my tracker list. Tetlami is 5 year old and Vulcanite had his first Hurdle Start as a 4 year old. Both horses for the future."
Vulcanite yesterday easy winner in the 14.15 Novice Hurdles in Southwell, I missed it cause ATR sends out the message very late, so that I didnt check again. Still one for the future I think this horse.
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Headgear First time 180112
We were chatting about trainers who are very successful (headgear first time) Bens newsletter gives a brilliant example of cashing in on this by highlighting the strike rate for the jockey combination of McCain and Maguire… this gives VFB users a really good way of getting this stat into the analyser by naming both trainer / jock and saving as (TNR JOK hdge 1st time) you know it makes sense at that strike rate to have this on your side when reviewing a race -
Up till now have had this for just the trainers who have done well when reaching for first time headgear but when that stat leaps out its time to watch carefully.
Bob
Up till now have had this for just the trainers who have done well when reaching for first time headgear but when that stat leaps out its time to watch carefully.
Bob
Newbury 14.05 2m3f Novice Hurdles
Claret Cloak 5.5 BSP has a very nice price for his Novice Hurdling Debut.
I noted this horse in a Class 6 Bumper in Wincanton on G-Soft Ground, where it made such a stunning cruiing finish, that I had to back it next time out in a huge step up in class in a Listed Class 1 Bumper in Ascot, when it went 2nd, but couldnt find the gear like in his race before. This was Soft Ground and it wasnt a suited race to his running. Today G-S, step down in class, 3f more, now just need a terrific pace to attack prominent from the bridle. This horse made an immense impression on me on that day in Wincanton and should be hard to beat. It was ridden held up that day by Jack Doyle, who rode it naturally and gave the horse its own rythm. Hes back on board today, as Sam Thomas rode the horse leading and didnt seem to get a handle on it really LTO. One worry though, hopefully there are some pacesetters in this, a steady pace would be of great importance.
Upham Atom 24 BSP 2.35 Newbury 3m G-S Ch3
Except left handed track has this horse everything in its favour in Newbury today. It needs fast pace, which should be there through the big field, a galloping flat track and Good to Soft ground, then it has every chance to win this here, when attacking from the bridle. I noted this horse in Wincanton under these conditions, when it fell looking extremely strong on the runin. LTO it was a very tight finish on an unsuited track and it could have won also it was close. Races from the same mark today and odds of 24 BSP at Betfair despite a slight left handed doubt are too big.
There are Front runners in this race and this is positive.
Bellvano 3.3 BSP in the 13.30 Newbury
I just have the feeling this horse has some potential and his LTO perfromanc against Al Ferof wasnt that bad after the long layoff. Just think its a greta price, as The favvy didnt convince me against Spirit Son, looks not too strong and Lidar just to weak LTO in the closing stages.
GL rade!
I noted this horse in a Class 6 Bumper in Wincanton on G-Soft Ground, where it made such a stunning cruiing finish, that I had to back it next time out in a huge step up in class in a Listed Class 1 Bumper in Ascot, when it went 2nd, but couldnt find the gear like in his race before. This was Soft Ground and it wasnt a suited race to his running. Today G-S, step down in class, 3f more, now just need a terrific pace to attack prominent from the bridle. This horse made an immense impression on me on that day in Wincanton and should be hard to beat. It was ridden held up that day by Jack Doyle, who rode it naturally and gave the horse its own rythm. Hes back on board today, as Sam Thomas rode the horse leading and didnt seem to get a handle on it really LTO. One worry though, hopefully there are some pacesetters in this, a steady pace would be of great importance.
Upham Atom 24 BSP 2.35 Newbury 3m G-S Ch3
Except left handed track has this horse everything in its favour in Newbury today. It needs fast pace, which should be there through the big field, a galloping flat track and Good to Soft ground, then it has every chance to win this here, when attacking from the bridle. I noted this horse in Wincanton under these conditions, when it fell looking extremely strong on the runin. LTO it was a very tight finish on an unsuited track and it could have won also it was close. Races from the same mark today and odds of 24 BSP at Betfair despite a slight left handed doubt are too big.
There are Front runners in this race and this is positive.
Bellvano 3.3 BSP in the 13.30 Newbury
I just have the feeling this horse has some potential and his LTO perfromanc against Al Ferof wasnt that bad after the long layoff. Just think its a greta price, as The favvy didnt convince me against Spirit Son, looks not too strong and Lidar just to weak LTO in the closing stages.
GL rade!
Monday, 16 January 2012
Plumpton 3.40 3m2f ground dead!
Its the only race that is over a distance and am keen to take my chances for the only bet of the day on Bowen's only runner
Amazing Valour who has come a long way for this and Bowen does well when he comes down to the south east - 20% strike rate - O'Brien rides (16% strike rate) and though the ground is riding dead and tacky the prices at around 18s at current time look very generous for the win and place market - this one is a stamina bred animal and I think he is up for it off this mark am only worried about jumping out of this ground - performed well to get third on soft ground last time off a mark of 82 and gets in today off 77 - yep its bred for better ground - but Bowen knows he wont get that around here and could be a handicap snip ---
Bob
Amazing Valour who has come a long way for this and Bowen does well when he comes down to the south east - 20% strike rate - O'Brien rides (16% strike rate) and though the ground is riding dead and tacky the prices at around 18s at current time look very generous for the win and place market - this one is a stamina bred animal and I think he is up for it off this mark am only worried about jumping out of this ground - performed well to get third on soft ground last time off a mark of 82 and gets in today off 77 - yep its bred for better ground - but Bowen knows he wont get that around here and could be a handicap snip ---
Bob
Sunday, 15 January 2012
Top Sires for 2011 to 2012 so far 150112
| STALLION | WINNERS–RUNNERS | WINS | RUNS | 2ND | 3RD | 4TH | WIN PRIZE | TOTAL PRIZE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King's Theatre | 59–183 | 32% | 86 | 624 | 70 | 69 | 61 | £669,693 | £919,057 |
| Beneficial | 86–277 | 31% | 111 | 912 | 91 | 91 | 86 | £630,937 | £913,645 |
| Oscar | 59–292 | 20% | 78 | 797 | 68 | 74 | 69 | £589,521 | £795,645 |
| Presenting | 54–291 | 19% | 78 | 868 | 94 | 97 | 67 | £444,843 | £742,820 |
| Flemensfirth | 64–246 | 26% | 97 | 735 | 78 | 66 | 78 | £520,689 | £738,751 |
| Anshan | 36–132 | 27% | 56 | 411 | 46 | 39 | 42 | £465,466 | £689,048 |
| Old Vic | 55–196 | 28% | 78 | 537 | 61 | 59 | 51 | £448,961 | £649,446 |
| Accordion | 30–102 | 29% | 38 | 302 | 40 | 27 | 23 | £452,118 | £591,695 |
| Milan | 51–202 | 25% | 74 | 589 | 62 | 63 | 57 | £409,304 | £542,921 |
| Kayf Tara | 43–120 | 36% | 60 | 391 | 40 | 57 | 42 | £282,244 | £435,068 |
| Bob Back | 30–113 | 27% | 40 | 334 | 36 | 33 | 41 | £266,753 | £408,357 |
| Definite Article | 34–138 | 25% | 47 | 456 | 50 | 41 | 42 | £267,091 | £398,357 |
| Montjeu | 26–82 | 32% | 33 | 241 | 25 | 28 | 28 | £275,983 | £362,721 |
ATR horse Tracker - http://www.attheraces.com/tracker/myatrtracker.aspx
For you who want that xtra edge with your Analyser this is the free tool to do it - a brilliant service
Never miss a winner with our ATR Tracker service! Add up to 50 of your favourite horses and eyecatchers to your ATR Tracker list and we'll email you when they are declared to run*. You can choose to receive updates just for the next start, for the next three starts, or as a permanent alert whenever the horse is declared as well as storing your own comments.
*Emails are sent overnight the day before the race. Service covers UK and Irish races only.
*Emails are sent overnight the day before the race. Service covers UK and Irish races only.
Quiet day - notebook these Dosage figures Gold Cup 2012
With thanks to narrow the Field blog here are the dosage figures for the Cheltenham Gold Cup - previous winner profiles and how they figure for the provisional line up in 8 weeks time
Previous winners profile
Probable winners (based on Dosage)
DIAMOND HARRY is another in the red area and I’m still firmly of the opinion that he doesn’t quite stay the trip at Grade 1 level (I know he won the Hennessy but thanks to Denman he was able to cart around a measly 10 stone on his back that day!).
QUITO DE LA ROQUE is another who has to overcome the ‘less than 8 points’ trend.
The Green zone throws at us the 2 market leaders in LONG RUN &; KAUTO STAR as well as last seasons RSA Chase 1st and 2nd BOSTONS ANGEL & JESSIES DREAM. The ‘enigma’ that is WHAT A FRIEND also pops his head into the equation.
As always these figures are yours to use and abuse as and how you see fit. I personally use the Dosage figures in conjunction with other forms of analysis to come to my own conclusions.
If some of you are still unfamiliar with the workings of all things Dosage then I am currently giving away a FREE copy of my ‘intro to Dosage’ guide to all subscribers to the FREE NTF updates list. Simply pop your name and email in the form at the top right of the site and you will be send a link where, amongst other guides, you will be able to download a copy of my Dosage guide.
http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/1121/the-2012-cheltenham-gold-cup-the-dosage-viewpoint/
Previous winners profile
Winner | DP | DPA | Total | DI | CD |
Long Run | 1-0-4-3-0 | / | 8 | 0.60 | -0.13 |
Imperial Commander | 3-2-4-2-1 | PATB | 12 | 1.40 | 0.33 |
Kauto Star | 2-2-6-10-2 | DQ | 22 | 0.47 | -0.36 |
Denman | 0-1-1-6-2 | / | 10 | 0.18 | -0.90 |
Kauto Star | 2-2-6-10-2 | DQ | 22 | 0.47 | -0.36 |
War of Attrition | 0-1-3-8-4 | / | 16 | 0.19 | -0.94 |
Kicking King | 2-0-8-8-2 | 20+ | 20 | 0.43 | -0.40 |
Best Mate | 1-1-10-5-1 | PATB | 18 | 0.64 | -0.22 |
Best Mate | 1-1-10-5-1 | PATB | 18 | 0.64 | -0.22 |
Best Mate | 1-1-10-5-1 | PATB | 18 | 0.64 | -0.22 |
Looks Like Trouble | 1-4-5-2-0 | / | 12 | 1.67 | 0.33 |
See More Business | 0-0-3-6-1 | / | 10 | 0.18 | -0.80 |
Cool Dawn | 2-2-8-0-0 | / | 12 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
Mr Mulligan | 2-3-7-4-2 | PATB | 18 | 0.89 | -0.06 |
Imperial Call | 3-3-4-0-2 | / | 12 | 2.00 | 0.42 |
Master Oats | 9-0-3-2-0 | / | 14 | 3.00 | 1.14 |
The fellow | 0-0-4-4-2 | / | 10 | 0.25 | -0.80 |
Jodami | 2-0-6-8-6 | 20+ | 22 | 0.29 | -0.73 |
Cool Ground | 2-0-8-2-0 | / | 12 | 1.00 | 0.17 |
Garrison Savannah | 1-0-9-0-4 | / | 14 | 0.65 | -0.43 |
Probable winners (based on Dosage)
| Horse | DP | DPA | TOT | DI | CD |
| KAUTO STAR | 2-2-6-10-2 | DQ | 22 | 0.47 | -0.36 |
| BOSTONS ANGEL | 1-0-12-7-2 | 20+ | 22 | 0.47 | -0.41 |
| WHAT A FRIEND | 2-1-8-2-7 | DQ | 20 | 0.54 | -0.55 |
| CHINA ROCK | 0-2-3-4-3 | / | 12 | 0.41 | -0.67 |
| JESSIES DREAM | 0-1-3-4-2 | / | 10 | 0.33 | -0.70 |
| LONG RUN | 1-0-4-3-0 | / | 8 | 0.60 | -0.13 |
| THE GIANT BOLSTER | 3-0-10-5-2 | 20+ | 20 | 0.67 | -0.15 |
Possible winners (based on Dosage)
| Horse | DP | DPA | TOT | DI | CD |
| HEY BIG SPENDER | 2-1-13-4-4 | DQ | 24 | 0.66 | -0.29 |
| MAGNANIMITY | 3-0-10-9-2 | 20+ | 24 | 0.50 | -0.29 |
| WAYWARD PRINCE | 2-1-15-3-5 | DQ | 26 | 0.68 | -0.31 |
| CARRUTHERS | 2-1-11-6-0 | 20+ | 20 | 0.74 | -0.05 |
| WEIRD AL | 5-1-6-8-2 | DQ | 22 | 0.69 | -0.05 |
| MIDNIGHT CHASE | 3-1-7-4-1 | PATB | 16 | 0.88 | 0.06 |
| QUEL ESPRIT | 1-1-7-3-0 | / | 12 | 0.85 | 0.00 |
Split this table why? see Bens Blog -
DP | DPA | TOT | DI | CD | |
| TIME FOR RUPERT | 4-2-6-0-6 | / | 18 | 1.00 | -0.11 |
| THE MIDNIGHT CLUB | 3-2-6-0-1 | / | 12 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| KNOCKARA BEAU | 3-5-8-1-1 | PATB | 18 | 2.00 | 0.44 |
| HALLEY | 3-1-14-0-0 | / | 18 | 1.57 | 0.39 |
| TIDAL BAY | 3-2-4-2-1 | PATB | 12 | 1.40 | 0.33 |
| CAPTAIN CHRIS | 4-1-7-4-0 | / | 16 | 1.13 | 0.31 |
| BURTON PORT | 1-4-15-0-0 | 20+ | 20 | 1.67 | 0.30 |
| ALBERTAS RUN | 5-1-6-6-0 | / | 18 | 1.00 | 0.28 |
| THE MINACK | 4-0-8-4-0 | / | 16 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| FINIANS RAINBOW | 0-1-7-0-0 | / | 8 | 1.29 | 0.13 |
| APT APPROACH | 1-3-14-1-1 | DQ | 20 | 1.22 | 0.10 |
| MEDERMIT | 1-1-8-2-0 | / | 12 | 1.00 | 0.08 |
| SYNCHRONISED | 5-1-24-8-0 | 20+ | 38 | 0.90 | 0.08 |
| JUNIOR | 5-1-18-7-1 | DQ | 32 | 0.88 | 0.06 |
Unlikely winners (Based on Dosage)
DP | DPA | TOT | DI | CD | |
| GRANDS CRUS | 0-0-3-1-2 | / | 6 | 0.33 | -0.83 |
| MON MOME | 1-1-2-0-0 | / | 4 | 3.00 | 0.75 |
| QUITO DE LA ROQUE | 0-0-3-3-0 | / | 6 | 0.33 | -0.50 |
| POQUELIN | 5-0-5-0-0 | / | 10 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| DIAMOND HARRY | 7-3-7-0-1 | / | 18 | 3.00 | 0.83 |
| LITTLE JOSH | 3-0-7-0-0 | / | 10 | 1.86 | 0.60 |
Vfb Users have an advantage that many others do not have and this information is gold dust - Go to Bens blog and get yourself familiar with the Dosage system -- You Know it makes sense especially when you read this stuff
Looking at the the current entries for the 3m2f challenge it is perhaps the ‘Unlikely Winners’ zone that throws up the most interesting pointer with current 3rd favourite GRANDS CRUS sitting snugly in the red area due to his limited number of total points. A thrice raced novice (probably four chase starts by the time March comes around) with an inadequate Dosage rating for the challenge of the Cheltenham Gold Cup? At the moment I wouldn’t be keen to depart with any of my hard-earned cash at his current ante-post odds of 8-1.DIAMOND HARRY is another in the red area and I’m still firmly of the opinion that he doesn’t quite stay the trip at Grade 1 level (I know he won the Hennessy but thanks to Denman he was able to cart around a measly 10 stone on his back that day!).
QUITO DE LA ROQUE is another who has to overcome the ‘less than 8 points’ trend.
The Green zone throws at us the 2 market leaders in LONG RUN &; KAUTO STAR as well as last seasons RSA Chase 1st and 2nd BOSTONS ANGEL & JESSIES DREAM. The ‘enigma’ that is WHAT A FRIEND also pops his head into the equation.
As always these figures are yours to use and abuse as and how you see fit. I personally use the Dosage figures in conjunction with other forms of analysis to come to my own conclusions.
If some of you are still unfamiliar with the workings of all things Dosage then I am currently giving away a FREE copy of my ‘intro to Dosage’ guide to all subscribers to the FREE NTF updates list. Simply pop your name and email in the form at the top right of the site and you will be send a link where, amongst other guides, you will be able to download a copy of my Dosage guide.
http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/1121/the-2012-cheltenham-gold-cup-the-dosage-viewpoint/
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