My pennies today are all on Merry Vic which at 5/1 looks a steal - ran Barber Shop to half a length at Fontwell g/soft 3m2f and cannot see past him in this line up ran a stormer on this rules debut considering it was his return from a 686-day layoff. held up in last pair, ridden in 5th after 13th, went 3rd 15th, chased winner before 3 out, slight peck 2 out, upsides and slight peck last, strong challenge flat, always just held, he is 9-13 in points and has some decent form in that sphere, particularly his beating of The Midnight Club back in 2007.He's had time to get over that and looks a shoo-in today .
http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=FON_2012_02_26_05_1615
The Price should remain steady as the favorite this morning is the dentist riding Roulez Cool who is a bit of a monkey of a horse but the punters love the jock (cannot see it myself) Merry Vic is ahead on the jumping. The second Favourite Description was bang up there around haydock but took a crashing fall (3rd of his career and the last 2 have not been pretty)
Edit --- money in the bag but a long ban for young Mr Gorman who missed out the last fence deliberately for an easy win to turn into complete farce
I cant believe the outcome after all the years have been racing I should know these things happen but http://www.racinguk.com/video/race-replays/20120323/1954438
good luck today Guys -- keep your powder dry
Bob
Friday, 23 March 2012
Thursday, 22 March 2012
Thursday 22nd SandsoftheColosseum carlisle
The horses are running for their feed during the lul between Cheltenham and Aintree and form is always dodgy the market being probably the best guide and that's not for me - someone elses opinion( ie the yards) is pretty un fathomable and during this time its better in my opinion for the lay to back animals.
The big race for the weekend is the flat at Lingfield Aw and there are some decent trends for the race which will point us in the right direction will not be putting them up till friday.
Today's races will attract me to Carlisle (4.05) where SandsoftheColosseum has a tongue tie for the first time and has its going today at an attractive 9/2 Hales is a trainer I like very much for this track and this is a decent moving animal who put up a good front running display at Exeter last time on good ground is a genuine right handed animal is well capable of winning this 3m2f of this mark of 109 as it has improved and runs to marks of around the 118 It's good to soft, soft in places and Gillies takes the ride - there is a lot of stable confidence about the animal and a very good trading prospect .
Hunter chases are my fun bets and will be taking Cave Hill to win again at chepstow in the 4.55 put up a smashing performance last time is so well in against this feild and forged away off a fast pace last time leaving a better line up in its wake capable in its day to get a mark of 133 and can run well within this time frame
Good Luck today
Bob
The big race for the weekend is the flat at Lingfield Aw and there are some decent trends for the race which will point us in the right direction will not be putting them up till friday.
Today's races will attract me to Carlisle (4.05) where SandsoftheColosseum has a tongue tie for the first time and has its going today at an attractive 9/2 Hales is a trainer I like very much for this track and this is a decent moving animal who put up a good front running display at Exeter last time on good ground is a genuine right handed animal is well capable of winning this 3m2f of this mark of 109 as it has improved and runs to marks of around the 118 It's good to soft, soft in places and Gillies takes the ride - there is a lot of stable confidence about the animal and a very good trading prospect .
Hunter chases are my fun bets and will be taking Cave Hill to win again at chepstow in the 4.55 put up a smashing performance last time is so well in against this feild and forged away off a fast pace last time leaving a better line up in its wake capable in its day to get a mark of 133 and can run well within this time frame
Good Luck today
Bob
Tuesday, 20 March 2012
A Hard Luck Story
Glad to see you are all beating the bookies into submission!
Regards to all,
John
Exeter 200312
Exeter being the only jump meeting today it captures the blog ----GOING: GOOD (Good to firm in places in back straight; GoingStick 6.5) (Hurdle course out wide adding about 80yds per circuit) WEATHER (Mostly cloudy)
Stats for this track can be thrown out when the ground is quick as this but still there are some interesting trends
2.30: Three of the six favourites have finished in the frame (one winner) to date, whilst sixteen of seventeen available toteplacepot places have been claimed by horses starting at 10/1 or less. Only one of the 35 horses starting at 11/1 or more has troubled the judge. its a seller but a good one and love the chances of the mare Mangonel who ran a funny race last time out at fakenham leading all the way till the last 1/2mile there are few front runners in this race and it loves the track
Edit 2.30 ---3rd and bloody lucky to do that a really poor race
3.00: The Top weight 12-07 Katchmore has a decent claimer and a g/frm ground animal who will not be inconvenienced by the weight but is prone to putting in some funny old efforts from the front - has the tongue tie today for Pipe and won its last race with its head in its chest - it has bounced in the past and am prepared to take it on today - 5 yr olds have won this twice in the past ten years and highest weight has been 11-09 has it all to do even with that impressive run under its belt - Philip Hobbs held just one entry Marchand D’Argent at the penultimate entry stage which is interesting, given that Philip has secured three of the seven renewals of this event. he targets the race and this is a good ground animal that is on its second run of the season - looked ok at sandown last time under a claimer his old form is miles better than these and I think its been found the right race mouthwatering place /win 80/20 for me at the current 20
Edit for the sake of Lil Gods forget The Hobbs yard it was lifeless jumped on Katchmore for the win to reduce my losses but they still losses!
Stats for this track can be thrown out when the ground is quick as this but still there are some interesting trends
2.30: Three of the six favourites have finished in the frame (one winner) to date, whilst sixteen of seventeen available toteplacepot places have been claimed by horses starting at 10/1 or less. Only one of the 35 horses starting at 11/1 or more has troubled the judge. its a seller but a good one and love the chances of the mare Mangonel who ran a funny race last time out at fakenham leading all the way till the last 1/2mile there are few front runners in this race and it loves the track
Edit 2.30 ---3rd and bloody lucky to do that a really poor race
3.00: The Top weight 12-07 Katchmore has a decent claimer and a g/frm ground animal who will not be inconvenienced by the weight but is prone to putting in some funny old efforts from the front - has the tongue tie today for Pipe and won its last race with its head in its chest - it has bounced in the past and am prepared to take it on today - 5 yr olds have won this twice in the past ten years and highest weight has been 11-09 has it all to do even with that impressive run under its belt - Philip Hobbs held just one entry Marchand D’Argent at the penultimate entry stage which is interesting, given that Philip has secured three of the seven renewals of this event. he targets the race and this is a good ground animal that is on its second run of the season - looked ok at sandown last time under a claimer his old form is miles better than these and I think its been found the right race mouthwatering place /win 80/20 for me at the current 20
Edit for the sake of Lil Gods forget The Hobbs yard it was lifeless jumped on Katchmore for the win to reduce my losses but they still losses!
3.30: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals and Favorites do so well here. Tony McCoy has a 22% strike rate has only one ride today and that's for Johnson's Yard Mr Hobbs Yep its a McManus horse Quaspal - and its his only runner today was a decent enough animal on fastish ground in its bumper and is frequently given long lay off - hard puller who could well find himself in the front line rather than swinging off the bridle as there are better mannered animals in the line up and its under priced for me but the one ride is a factor -an Imperial Cup winner who ran from the back in heavy ground and won on g/soft is the complete right handed animal who has an improving profile over fences -- steady him up Mr McCoy
Edit cant have this one now
Edit cant have this one now
4.00 a lottery of a novice chase and like the chances of the Bowen horse Normally who is visored first time today bounced last time but its run at Ffoss las says he can do it today over this 3miles Bowen yard is in the doldrums but this one is a born in the wood stayer who got outpaced in the Ffoss las Race only to find them coming back to him at the home bend and he simply ran them into the ground having to get at least a furlong to the two in front of him. Edit Bloody Typical went out like a light and a bloody Hobbs horse puts it all in
4.30 hunter chase and will stick with Templer who will enjoy the ground and distance Edit Hobbs Horse No Bet - have taken a small bet on the fast ground no hoper Glacial Call for a place at 18s
5.00: Six-year-olds have secured three of the four renewals thus far, whilst claiming six of the 12 available toteplacepot positions. Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame (without winning). its a hard nut to crack but am going for the place market and trust all 8 will go quite liked the improvement shown by Be Kind the mare by Generous who went off like a bat out of hell last time and will be better today going right handed - was a fair race on firm ground at wincanton over 2m6f
Good Luck today
Bob
Monday, 19 March 2012
As ever its monday cards and un exciting stuff at that 190312
Monday Racing and it does not get much worse than today's cards.
have had my fill of the postings on Facebook Timeform wall - guys calling animals garbage is not to my liking - especially when the "garbage" animal which I had posted as a possible long shot beats home his assured selection, his lay wins, and the garbage animal beats his selection out of sight -- oh the joy of watching http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,487681,00.html
I object to a horse called garbage (especially as I had posted that it had a chance because of the ground and the weight concession) and guess what ? was dumped off the page for going to the post he had made and asked "You were saying? that was thought unacceptable for gawds sake - the guy had got it completely wrong his assessment was well out - he was wrong to say my selection was garbage. To give the poster credit he did not object to the "you were saying" but the wall police considered my post offensive -- was not trying to be offensive was simply trying to give the usual badinage --
ok that out of the way what do I think has chances today?
Here at Southwell in the 4.00 the chances of Little Chip stand out on the forecast soft g/soft in places over 2miles 4 furlongs - first hdles today and was impressed a bit with its run at Ffoss las when it lobbed along well until the home bend when he was beaten for pace over the 2miles - now with the hdles to help it and extended to 2m4f on soft ground is a very appealing price.I also have a hankering for Dannanceys Hill but this 2m4f may not be far enough and preference on tht count goes to Little Chip.
Limerick 3.10 is little better than glorified seller on heavy ground and am loathe to go against Mackey Boy who will relish the ground and trip - trainer has a great success here and have taken the current 5s on betfair
limerick 3.40 am interested in this race and watching the market for any money on Kaprun -Canny trainer and not many entries - this one runs incredibly well fresh and conditions suite it for a big run today Rockshandy and the outsider Sir Harry Cash -- but no great convictions -- think the market will point to which one.
good luck all
Bob
have had my fill of the postings on Facebook Timeform wall - guys calling animals garbage is not to my liking - especially when the "garbage" animal which I had posted as a possible long shot beats home his assured selection, his lay wins, and the garbage animal beats his selection out of sight -- oh the joy of watching http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,487681,00.html
I object to a horse called garbage (especially as I had posted that it had a chance because of the ground and the weight concession) and guess what ? was dumped off the page for going to the post he had made and asked "You were saying? that was thought unacceptable for gawds sake - the guy had got it completely wrong his assessment was well out - he was wrong to say my selection was garbage. To give the poster credit he did not object to the "you were saying" but the wall police considered my post offensive -- was not trying to be offensive was simply trying to give the usual badinage --
ok that out of the way what do I think has chances today?
Here at Southwell in the 4.00 the chances of Little Chip stand out on the forecast soft g/soft in places over 2miles 4 furlongs - first hdles today and was impressed a bit with its run at Ffoss las when it lobbed along well until the home bend when he was beaten for pace over the 2miles - now with the hdles to help it and extended to 2m4f on soft ground is a very appealing price.I also have a hankering for Dannanceys Hill but this 2m4f may not be far enough and preference on tht count goes to Little Chip.
Limerick 3.10 is little better than glorified seller on heavy ground and am loathe to go against Mackey Boy who will relish the ground and trip - trainer has a great success here and have taken the current 5s on betfair
limerick 3.40 am interested in this race and watching the market for any money on Kaprun -Canny trainer and not many entries - this one runs incredibly well fresh and conditions suite it for a big run today Rockshandy and the outsider Sir Harry Cash -- but no great convictions -- think the market will point to which one.
good luck all
Bob
Sunday, 18 March 2012
The Festival -too much Hype and Pandering?
Well as ever the festival delivered - am just so concerned the media lost track that its all about horses jockey's and trainers and simply went over the top ignoring horse sense at every turn.
Ante post was the dirge by Time form radio - how the bookies loved it - Betfair was proposed as the ante post friend to punters in this as far back as December they extolled the dubious money making ability to bet at long odds watch for races where animals would go for the "alternative" race laying for the main one and backing for the lesser alternative --Did you do well if you followed this mantra? if you did your the exception methinks.
The hype about Nichols yard became frantic ignoring all the signs of coughing Yes IGNORING. The non racing papers were completely swallowing this dirge. Kauto Star who had fallen in a schooling round was given daily checks and videos about bruising as if that was the only factor the old boy had to overcome, what hogwash, what deceit by many and followed by the gullible - Kauto flags scarfs banners "hope the old boy can do it again" was like a fever to me it was a sham, a three card trick, All the while the instigators knew the horse would go off at odds it would never be able to run to and collected accordingly.
I guess I should not be knocking this as I look at each race as it comes up betting accordingly - winning or losing on my own judgement
All I ask of the reader today is to take a long hard look at the whole picture - and that includes past form present condition - jockey/ trainer track suitability ground and trends of the race your going to put your hard earned on- not much to ask really --- write down the reasons why you fancy runners in a field and narrow it down before the race -- THEN check the going hasn't changed - take a look at the parade ring and the horse going down - if you have already taken a price look to lay those that now become less attractive as those factors emerge if you have already layed an animal - back back those who have become more attractive.
When you read any early morning opinions I have put on the blog take all the above into a consideration where you appose mine give me reasons -- you could make me a packet and that would be very nice of you.
On a closing note be kind to your servants and stable staff, remember some of their names, pay them regularly and let them have Sunday off (at least once a month.)
Bob
Ante post was the dirge by Time form radio - how the bookies loved it - Betfair was proposed as the ante post friend to punters in this as far back as December they extolled the dubious money making ability to bet at long odds watch for races where animals would go for the "alternative" race laying for the main one and backing for the lesser alternative --Did you do well if you followed this mantra? if you did your the exception methinks.
The hype about Nichols yard became frantic ignoring all the signs of coughing Yes IGNORING. The non racing papers were completely swallowing this dirge. Kauto Star who had fallen in a schooling round was given daily checks and videos about bruising as if that was the only factor the old boy had to overcome, what hogwash, what deceit by many and followed by the gullible - Kauto flags scarfs banners "hope the old boy can do it again" was like a fever to me it was a sham, a three card trick, All the while the instigators knew the horse would go off at odds it would never be able to run to and collected accordingly.
I guess I should not be knocking this as I look at each race as it comes up betting accordingly - winning or losing on my own judgement
All I ask of the reader today is to take a long hard look at the whole picture - and that includes past form present condition - jockey/ trainer track suitability ground and trends of the race your going to put your hard earned on- not much to ask really --- write down the reasons why you fancy runners in a field and narrow it down before the race -- THEN check the going hasn't changed - take a look at the parade ring and the horse going down - if you have already taken a price look to lay those that now become less attractive as those factors emerge if you have already layed an animal - back back those who have become more attractive.
When you read any early morning opinions I have put on the blog take all the above into a consideration where you appose mine give me reasons -- you could make me a packet and that would be very nice of you.
On a closing note be kind to your servants and stable staff, remember some of their names, pay them regularly and let them have Sunday off (at least once a month.)
Bob
Saturday, 17 March 2012
Fun day bulging satchel and lets play the scopp 6 for a few quid 170312
Today's scoop is unusual in that it has some fair races we can get our teeth into:-
| UTT | 4 Bathwick Brave | ||
| FFO | 8 Lamboro Lad | ||
| UTT | 6 - Harry Hunt | ||
| UTT | 12/16 Posh Bird /Another Palm | ||
| FFO | 4 Definite Dawn | ||
| UTT | Long Time since have played the scoop 6 but fancy all of these to run a decent race today | 4 Victoria Rose |
Friday, 16 March 2012
The Betfred Midlands Grand National 170312
The Betfred Midlands Grand National is a listed handicap chase run over 4M 1½F. It takes place at Uttoxeter on the Saturday (17th March) following Cheltenham. Irish raiding parties have done well in the race in the pace 10 runnings.
Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings (2000-2011):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-2-3
7yo: 4-1-19
8yo: 3-8-40
9yo: 3-6-45
10yo: 0-3-27
11yo+: 0-5-22
Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 7-11-58
Horses aged 9 or older have a combined record of 3-14-94
No horse aged 10+ has won this since 2000 despite representing approximately 31.4% of total runners.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 1-9-61
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 9-16-95
It’s very hard for horses to carry big weights in this with the 9 of the last 10 winnerscarrying 10-9 or less. In 2010 Synchronised (who bloody well won the gold cup yesterday) won the Welsh National) won this under 11-5, though only 3 horses finished, which makes the result slightly more suspect from a trends points of view.
Horses racing from out of the handicap (3-4-28) have won 3 of the 10 runnings from approximately 18% of the total runners.
Top Weight: 4PP7PPP98P3 (0-1-11) has a very poor record in this, gaining no wins and just 1 place in the past 10 runnings and only completing 5 times.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 133 or higher: 1-10-50
Horses rated 132 or lower: 9-15-97
9 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 116 to 132 (though 1 winner who was officially rated 128 ran off 133, 5lbs out of the handicap)
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won 1 of last 2 completed chase starts
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won no more than twice over fences that season
8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 6 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chase
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (2 exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was placed in two 3M graded chases on last 2 starts)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a chase worth 15K+ (all 3 exceptions had run in 4 or less chases)
8 of 10 winners were having their first start at the track (2 exceptions unplaced on 1 previous run here)
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners had won a class 1 chase (exception was 2nd in the Grade A Paddy Power Chase)
Other Races
Devon National Handicap Chase winner (Clash Duff): 2 (0-1-1)
North Yorkshire Grand National H'cap Chase winner (Posh Bird): 6 (0-0-1)
2 of 3 Irish trained winners ran in Paddy Power H'cap Chase, finishing 25
Trainers
Irish trained runners (3-3-22) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 14% of the total runners and over a quarter of their runners have made the places.
Jonjo O'Neill (1-2-10) trained Synchronised to win it in 2010 and be placed last year.
David Pipe (1-1-3), Victor Dartnall (1-1-4) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-9) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher.
Noel Meade (1-0-1) has saddled just one runner in this in past 10 runnings, the Bunny Boiler in 2002, who won the race and landed a bit of a gamble in the process.
Price
No strong trend on price as 6 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below and came from first 3 in the betting, but in the past years there have been winners at prices of 25/1, 16/1 and 12/1.
Favourites (2-2-11) have won 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.12.
Summary:
Based on the trends from past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 9
· Carrying 10-9 or less
· Officially rated 132 or lower
· Won one of last 2 chase starts
· Finished in the first 3 last time out
· First or second season chasers
· Run in no more than 6 handicap chases (winning 0 or 1)
· Won over 3M+
· Finished in first 2 in a chase worth 15K+
· Trained by Victor Dartnall, David Pipe, Jonjo O’Neill or Noel Meade
The obvious route is to look for a horse that has won at the distance left handed and off a feather weight Another Palm from the Mead yard disappointing at Aintree can be ignored I think as its not the biggest of animals and the Beecher fences really got in the way - more positive was its run in the cork national showing all it des is stay
Posh Bird will do for my main bet has the wonderful Lucy Alexander and is a true stayer who ran our Portrait King down and to me looked all over the winner even getting its head in front at the end of the race coming from way back under brian Hughes fits the profile to a tee is out in the handicap proper at minimum weight and has a very nice 5lbs claim
The probable favourite Clash Duff is a complete right handed animal - a true stayer and heads the market - but each video replay shows how much it needs to go that way round will def stay the distance but has gone up a fair bit he loves to front run - will be watching him for a bet in running to see how he handles the left hand bends
ground is forecast good but its always going to be a slog and if the ground is anything like Uttoxeter it will end up the soft side of good will dutch the blues
Good Luck
Bob
What a festival (for me at least) lol
Hi guys, I hope you all have bulging satchels after the first 3 days. My two best bets of the meeting both won - Chanpagne Fever and Riverside Theatre, so I am a happy bunny. I like the chances of Pearl Swan in the 1.30 today and will back Kauto Star against my better judgement. Good luck all
two great days one baaaad day and One day to Go Cheltenham 2012
Satchel is bulging and plenty to play with for today -- usually i start slow end big but 4 winning favorites yesterday cooked that days bets - onwards and upwards
1.30 JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE GRADE 1 is always a bit of a lottery but small stakes exciting race Nowadays the race is usually won by a horse prominent in the market.Fillies (1-1-15) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 15 runners. Considering they represented less than 7% of the total runners, they actually do better than average.
Won last time out in the past 18 to 45 days
Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham 2.40 today BRINDISI BREEZE. - Haydock 180212 Gillies rode won so well blogged it Plenty of really good horses have won this in the past, and many have gone on to make their mark over fences in due course. However, this was a huge performance from the front-runner. He was a really impressive winner at Newcastle in deep ground before and defended an unbeaten record over hurdles in this, but this performance lifted his profile to another level and he can rightly be considered a solid candidate today The niggling doubt will be his ability to handle ground much quicker than he encountered here.but its bumper run on good ground where he was green (and bumped at a critical stage says he will handle it He´s a smart prospect.
3.20 the Gold Cup - Horses aged 6 to 9 (10-14-102) have won the last 10 runnings.
1.30 JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE GRADE 1 is always a bit of a lottery but small stakes exciting race Nowadays the race is usually won by a horse prominent in the market.Fillies (1-1-15) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 15 runners. Considering they represented less than 7% of the total runners, they actually do better than average.
Won last time out in the past 18 to 45 days
· Run in 2 to 6 hurdles and won at least half of them
· Won at class 3 or higher
· Won a hurdles race by 7 or more lengths
· Run on the flat and by a group 1-winning sire
· Won the Adonis or Finesse Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle
· Won a Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury
· Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Philip Hobbs
· From first 4 in the betting
Take a good long hard look at Kings animals both fit the profile Gremeti under Robert Thornton and Hutchinson only ride on Balder Success - unbeaten and easy winner of its four starts and Hutchinson has got to know him well
2.05 oldest horse in last 10 yers was 9 and weights are below 10-13 Citezenship is the big improver in the field and will be hard to beat off this mark the win in the Boylesports at Leopardstown, impressing with the way in which he made up a tremendous amount of ground and won going away; that race has been a good source of County winners in the past and Mrs Harrington won this contest in 2003 Court In Session is a lively outsider for this race has had a prep on the fibre sand loves the track and ground and any money this stable will be significant loves this quicker ground
3.20 the Gold Cup - Horses aged 6 to 9 (10-14-102) have won the last 10 runnings.
Horses aged 10+ (0-6-48) have gained no wins and 6 places in the last 10 runnings from just under a third of the total runners. The 6 placed finishers aged 10+ were either former Gold Cup winners or had won the previous season’s Aintree Grand National.9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 chases that season
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 11 chases in their career (Kuato Star winning it a second time was exception)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions had won the race before)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had each finished runner-up in the Lexus and King George on their only previous try at 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
SO you pays your money and you takes your chance
I cannot have kauto Star at any price for reasons already spelt out - if it wins will cheer the ole boy home thats for sure
Long Run under the dentist has had its gold cup already and returning to win a second year is fraught -- Burton Port will go better today though not the class for this and therefore with the iffy Jumping of The Giant Bolster a worry its breeding suggests it is in with a bigger shout than its current price and can it going well as is Time For Rupert --- my pin falls on Midnight chase under Costello horse was not right last year and Costello was injured so could not take the ride he loves the track and ground his age is against him but holds the cards
Foxhunters chase 4.00 I love hunter chases they embody the sport to a tee -
Salsify only 7 yr old could see it was going to win the biggest hunter chase in Ireland from half way it was that good 120212 analyser horse nowWon two of the top Irish hunter chases last Spring Traditionally as strong a hunter chase as you will get all year in Ireland, and with the ground drying out everything came right for SALSIFY. He won what are traditionally the two top spring hunter chases at Fairyhouse and Punchestown last year, and with him coming into form seemingly a bit earlier this time around the ground is very much in his favour. The winner raced quite keenly while being held up, travelled up strongly to lead coming to the last and found plenty from the final fence. His form on better ground would entitle him to be considered among the top two or three hunter chasers around on this side of the water, And if your watching the race replay it showed that the unconsidered but consistent Not Before Eight possibly ran his best race of the season, staying on well and would have got up for third in another stride. He does see out his races well and is known to stay 3m5f, is a very sneaky outsider at a big price as he´ll be finishing strongly.
I love hunter chases they embody the sport to a tee - Blackstaff is a really sound each way bet on its running at Sandown last but its a strong front runner who though getting 3miles well has been set up for this race by a good yard and a very good claimer likes cheltenham and from the family of two Grand National winners, was seriously progressive in points and made a smooth transition to regulation fences when impressively beating a reliable 116-rated rival at Exeter.
Good Luck today enjoy the finest jumps racing in the world we are very lucky people
Bob
Thursday, 15 March 2012
Thursday 15 March 2012 Cheltenham racing on new ground -- take notice
Warning: It's slow
Jockey Barry Geraghty has run a couple of laps of the track and finds it "on the easy side of good".
"I'm wearing runners so couldn't get the best feel of it, but it will be slower than Tuesday and Wednesday," he said.
Jason Maguire, who rides Peddlers Cross in the opening Jewson Novices' Chase, agrees.
"It's perfect," he said. "The dead side of good."
1.30 The first race is pretty new having only been run once before and Peddlers will be all the rage but am happy that will be much closer run affair and am taking him on today with Champion Court who I rate as high as Peddlers and has the form in the book for both distance track and ground conditions was brushed aside by Gran Cruz last year but has a lovely action jumps well and though he has a lot to find its the distance that convinces me he has the edge.
Also one that takes my eye is long shot Bold Sir Brian from the Lucinda yard s a lovely, big sort, exciting prospect The ground will be all against him as it drys and that’s the worry but if he runs am getting a small each way bet in Non Runner !
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2.05 The second race on day 3 is the Pertemps Final, which is a listed handicap hurdle run over 3 miles. Horses not quite thought good enough for the World Hurdle often take their place in this and with Big Buck’s likely to scare off a few in that race, this could be quite a high class renewal this year. It has thrown up a couple of 50/1 winners in past 7 years and it’s always a tricky race to work out. But its a fascinating one for the trends and stats 9 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 9 and they accounted for 32 of 40 places, though they have accounted for almost 77% of the total runners. The only horse aged 10+ to win this was Buena Vista last year after he had won the race in 2010 and finished 2nd in 2009.
In the past 8 running’s horses carrying 10-9 or less have won 7 and filled 24 of 32 places. Horses officially rated 129 to 142 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 63.4% of the total runners & they have filled all 15 of 16 places in the past 4 years. 8 of 10 winners had not won or placed at Cheltenham before (3 having first course start). 2 exceptions were Buena Vista who had won & placed in this race the year before winning this. HE IS NOW11 While previous course form is never a negative; it appears far from essential in this.
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles - 9 of 10 winners had won a Class 3 or higher hurdle - 8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)
Ok what does that leave us with? BellFlower Boy aged 9 10-6 Ridden By Quinlan who takes off a really handy(5lbs) and this lad is 25% strike rate at Cheltenham will handle the ground distance and ran to about 2lbs below today’s 137 last time trainer is in good form and has a very decent 25/1 price tag sulky bugger that does nothing till he wants to and in the form of his life came right away without having to be extended from the third-last flight the owners did not turn him out quickly to avoid a penalty after his easy win and they must have had this race in mind had been rated 128 at his peak last March and he´s advertised before that he´s capable of running up a sequence when in this sort of mood.
post script - will take a chance on Ashkazar each way at a long price now the ground is on the dead side
post script - will take a chance on Ashkazar each way at a long price now the ground is on the dead side
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2.40 3rd race The Ryanair Chase was introduced to the Festival in 2005 as a grade 2 chase over 2M 5F for horses whose best trip fell between the Champion Chase and Gold Cup distances. It became a grade 1 chase in 2008 and has grown stronger each year. It makes up part of the supporting card to the World Hurdle on the Thursday and Albertas Run Who has won the last 2 runnings, will be looking to complete the hat-trick this year. No very strong trends on the age of the winner in this race though all three 10yo winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a Ryanair or RSA Chase at a previous Festival. 5 of 7 winners finished in the first 3 last time (2 exceptions unplaced in King George) 5 of 7 winners achieved an RPR of 154+ on their last chase start 7 of 7 winners had won at Cheltenham (5 over the trip) 6 of 7 winners had won a graded chase at Cheltenham (exception was placed) 7 of 7 winners had 2 to 4 runs that season 5 of 7 winners had won or placed in a Paddy Power or December Gold Cups 7 of 7 winners had won a graded race 7 of 7 winners were officially rated 152+ 6 of 7 winners (last 6) had won over 2M 5F or further Since the race became a grade 1 in 2008, all 4 winners had run in the King George.(Somersby and Captain Chris) I don’t like Somersby though peices first time really did improve him this is too tuff for a horse to rely on them for this - and though Hobbs runs captain Chris with some dodgy stats he does run this track really well on good ground and could bounce back to his Arkle Form of last year now he’s getting his yard a bit straighter
The one that catches my eye in this is last year’s Jewson Winner Noble Prince - A couple of seconds prefaced a win for him at last season´s Cheltenham Festival, and he now has three more runner-up placings to his name in the build-up to Cheltenham. The strategy of running him at shorter distances last season ultimately paid dividends on the day that really mattered, and it remains a distinct possibility that will prove the case again. Upped to this distance and sired by Montjeu should be achievable
3.20 4th race The Ladbrokes World Hurdle (formerly the Stayers’ Hurdle) is the highlight of the third day of the Cheltenham Festival. Won by some absolutely fantastic horses in the past decade, including Baracouda and Inglis Drever, Big Buck’s is the latest star stayer who is looking to become the first horse to win the race for a fourth time and stamp himself as the greatest staying hurdler of all time. 9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8 (exception was Inglis Drever’s third win in 2008) The last three horses aged 9+ to have won it were all previous winners, so it’s certainly possible that Big Buck’s, at the age of 9, could do it again . - No horse aged 5 has ever won it. And here is a very interesting stat - French bred horses have the best record, winning 6 of the last 10 from slightly less than 30% of the total runners, and with over a third of their representatives getting placed. Irish-bred horses have a very poor record in this, failing to win any of the last 10 despite having represented almost 40% of the total runners. 10 of 10 winners finished in the first two on all hurdles starts that season -9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was Inglis Drever in 2005 who had won over 2M 5F but not run over further than that) 10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting The longest priced winner of this race since 2002 has been 8/1.
This year it looks all Big Bucks in the betting and as you know have made a killing laying Nichols horses and don’t see any reason to stop at this one today – its a very very competitive race – I hope the stats are in for a battering on Big Bucks today. Dynaste wearing the tounge tie is very positive move from this yard Won Grade 3 handicap at Haydock on return. Has bumped into Big Buck's both starts since, acquitting himself well when second in Cleeve Hurdle in January, and sports a tongue strap this time. I really am sweet on the chances of another Mullins winner in So Young (FR) who has come of age as he’s been lifted in distance he ran a cracker around this track in the Neptune last year on good ground (Behind First Lieutenant and Rock on Ruby) Upped in grade after two easy wins in Ireland, he was staying on and in with a chance when he blundered quite badly at the last, having become unbalanced after a coming-together with the winner on the approach to the flight. He was no threat after his error but kept on well. Jumping his hdles much better this year .
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4.00 The fifth race of day 3 is the Byrne Group Plate, a grade 3 handicap chase run over 2 miles 5 furlongs. This race has had many different names in the past including the Mildmay of Flete, Festival Plate and Racing Post Plate. Trainers who have done well in it recently have been Nicky Henderson and Venetia Williams,(Niceonefrankie) who have scooped 4 of the last 7 renewals between them. The age of winners of this has been fairly well spread out though in the past 8 years horses aged 5 to 8 have won 6 renewals and filled 21 of 32 places. All 3 winners aged 10+ were bred in GB. It has been tough to carry a big weight to win this, with 8 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-9 or less. In 4 of past 5 years the first 3 home all carried 10-7 or less. Top Weight: 6953F670PP00 (0-1-12) has a very poor record in this. Horses carrying a penalty: UF0F70F71 (1-0-9) Horses racing from out of the handicap (1-4-26) have gained 1 win and 4 places from 26 runners.
AND THIS ONE IS GOLD DUST - In recent years it has become apparent that having a good claimer on your horse is a massive advantage: Non-claiming jockeys: 6-26-181
Claimers: 4-4-33 4 of 10 winners (last 3) were ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance. Claimers rode just 15.4% of the total runners and backing all horses ridden by claimers in this race since 2002 would have yielded a profit of £72.00 to a £1 stake.
10 of 10 winners had previously won over 2M 2½F to 2M 5F - 10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase 10 of 10 winners were sent off 12/1 or bigger.
Not a race to be backing one at short odds. The last 4 winners have been priced 66/1, 33/1, 18/1 & 25/1.
Favourites (0-6-10) have failed to win any of the last 10 but 6 of 10 favourites have made the places, including 4 seconds. 3 of the 4 unplaced favourites were fallers.
The stats against a horse carrying a penalty is significant and that very decent animal NICEONEFRANKIE carries the ex5lbs today but (and I say this each year) – he is well above the current OR of 128 and I make it at least 8lbs better in than his mark is a very progressive horse at the right end of the handicap off 10-02 has won over the ground and jumps like a gazelle he fill all the stats – you cannot have one animal running for you in this so looking for a big each way shot with a chance so lets look at the claimers and long shots Killian Moore rides the 11 year old Kilcrea Aslea who is 3lbs out of the handicap and quoted at 100/1 – has got round here as a nipper finishing 4th on soft ground but is better this ground his long losing sequence is appalling but he is getting his act together was beaten on the run in at wincanton last run over 2m5f soft - Successful in two chases at 2m 5f and 3m on good ground, will have a few of my pennies on that showing and the stats with a bloody good claimer
4.40 no big analyzer for this am backing the top weight Up The Beat who has been on our watch list for animals - is different class over fences to his hdles second to our Portrait King over 3m4f soft ground has never run on this ground (but is bred to go on it) Or this track Mullins has put his son on today -
that's it - all the races - give me some idea of your fancies?
Bob
WORST DAY FOR THE BLOG EVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Wednesday, 14 March 2012
cheltenham Day 2 140312
Mixed bag today guys and unfortunately have had no time to do my normal study time - am off out for the day on Family Business so will be left watching Replays tonight.
1.30 am drawn to the chances of TEAFORTHREE, on his run at Chepstow in heavy ground last year - has been targeted for this race today jumping is flawless in the main loves to front run without his rider ask too many questions, despite the gelding having lost his off-fore shoe. Already a better chaser than hurdler and it´s a pity he did not have a mark for the Welsh National as he looks tailor-made for it, however, if conditions were to be in his favour the 4m chase at the festival would be well within his compass. A stayer tokeep on-side
2.05 whats to say about this race ?I really like the chances of two of the entries Cotton Mill and Secret Edge I know Simonsig is all the rage but has to show he can do this distance and is iffy for me
2.40 playing the place market only this smashing race as cannot divide the top two - I make Cannington Brooke a long way short of Grande Cruz but is a tempting place market shot - ps do like the chances of a betting run for Call the Police -
3.20 Am happy that realt Dubh is coming to this race with a massive layoff - won the powers gold cup 240411 5/1 2m4f good ground and with the lie up is my tentaive each way selection as the dark horse of the race
4.00 Third Intention is more class from the Tizzards yard From a stable not associated with juvenile hurdles, a winner over an extended 1m4f trip in Ireland, and a half-brother to winning Flat stayer Theola. Always well placed, he stayed on really strongly to get by the runner-up after being passed by him before two out, and announce himself as a creditable Triumph Hurdle candidate, although connections were reportedly pleasantly surprised by the way their horse performed in this.won at newbury 151210 first time out well they have come for this race instead - am happy to trust the yard!
5.15 am staying with the bumper at Newbury to give me the winner of this race Horatio Hornblower and Village Vic for a dutch bet -
Sorry have to zoom out and not had the real time the racing deserves enjoy the spectacle !
Bob
1.30 am drawn to the chances of TEAFORTHREE, on his run at Chepstow in heavy ground last year - has been targeted for this race today jumping is flawless in the main loves to front run without his rider ask too many questions, despite the gelding having lost his off-fore shoe. Already a better chaser than hurdler and it´s a pity he did not have a mark for the Welsh National as he looks tailor-made for it, however, if conditions were to be in his favour the 4m chase at the festival would be well within his compass. A stayer tokeep on-side
2.05 whats to say about this race ?I really like the chances of two of the entries Cotton Mill and Secret Edge I know Simonsig is all the rage but has to show he can do this distance and is iffy for me
2.40 playing the place market only this smashing race as cannot divide the top two - I make Cannington Brooke a long way short of Grande Cruz but is a tempting place market shot - ps do like the chances of a betting run for Call the Police -
3.20 Am happy that realt Dubh is coming to this race with a massive layoff - won the powers gold cup 240411 5/1 2m4f good ground and with the lie up is my tentaive each way selection as the dark horse of the race
4.00 Third Intention is more class from the Tizzards yard From a stable not associated with juvenile hurdles, a winner over an extended 1m4f trip in Ireland, and a half-brother to winning Flat stayer Theola. Always well placed, he stayed on really strongly to get by the runner-up after being passed by him before two out, and announce himself as a creditable Triumph Hurdle candidate, although connections were reportedly pleasantly surprised by the way their horse performed in this.won at newbury 151210 first time out well they have come for this race instead - am happy to trust the yard!
5.15 am staying with the bumper at Newbury to give me the winner of this race Horatio Hornblower and Village Vic for a dutch bet -
Sorry have to zoom out and not had the real time the racing deserves enjoy the spectacle !
Bob
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