New blog layout hopefully better than the old - we will see -
today the racing at Cheltenham is pretty well the fag end of racing over the jumps for the winter horses so the results will be kinda difficult to predict -
2.00 first time has been run -
2.35 past ten years have produced on 2 favs and one 7/2 the rest from 10/1 to 33/1 -
3.10 3 favs and the rest as far out as 20/1 -
3.45 3 favs but the biggest price 17/2 -
4.20 2 favs 1 jfav and prices out to 33/1 and 50/1 -
4.55 only 4 running's 1 fav the rest 7/2- 7/1- 9/1 -
5.30 bumper three favs and prices out to 10/1 the rest in single figures.
2.35 decent chase and the ground at g/soft soft in places 2m5f there is nothing between Back Bob Back and Arctic Ben on jumping though my preference is for Back bob Back on stamina issues and breeding
3.10 interested in Tempest River in its first handicap - bred from old Vic it has achieved better than this mark well outclassed in the big mares race here at the festival but the ground was all against her at 100/1 was not expected - same sort of profile for Deboftheyear bred from Sir harry Lewis and she can run on into a big place
3.45 most will want no worse than g/soft - First time chase for Ashkazar who has decent form in hdles round Cheltenham on g/soft and the Bet365 at Sandown is a fine stayer bred from saddlers Wells
4.20 Nothing has done well recently and that does not bode well for the market as the race has cut up so much Phare Isle will like the ground a bit more than most and went well at Ascot on ground too quick for it will stay and has won on soft .
4.55 and should be a decent race as none have a penchant for anything worse than g/soft and am taking Cruchain as the best of a poor lot - has stayed further on g/soft though his last two races have been woeful he can jump a fence when in the mood - the improver has to be Mr Matt gelding bred from Alfora is better on a flatter track but should be suited by being the only true front runner in the race
will take a chance on the flat at Newmarket in the biggest prize race the with an each way shout for hannon horse Rougemont 33s for the tatersalls Millions 1m2f montjeu sired won its first time up here over 7flngs and though I dont like to bet Hannon first time up -and he has another in the race at 4s currently this ones breeding attracts for the ground distance and draw
good luck today
the Scottish national is round the corner on saturday and will put the stats and thoughts tomorrow
Bob
Thursday, 19 April 2012
Saturday, 14 April 2012
FULL LIST OF RUNNERS AINTREE GOOD GROUND
The race produced the closest finish in many years with NEPTUNE COLLONGES getting up in the last stride to collar Sunnyhillboy, in the process becoming the first grey to win the race since Nicolaus Silver back in 1961. A top-class chaser at his best back in 2008-2009, winning three Grade 1s in Ireland and finishing in the frame in successive Gold Cups, Neptune Collonges had shown this seasonhe was still capable of running big races, being closely handicapped with Giles Cross on Haydock form. He was behind early but gradually crept into contention on the second circuit and galloped on stoutly up the run-in to just nose ahead on the line.A real star for connections, despite being overshadowed by stable companions Kauto Star and Denman, this was a fitting climax to his career, as his owner had announced beforehand that this would be his last race.
Sunnyhillboy was desperately unlucky to lose on the line, compounding a bad day for connections. He had returned to form when beating Becauseicouldntsee in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, was never far away and was produced seemingly perfectly by Richie McLernon to lead jumping the last fence. However, after going a couple of lengths clear the gelding began to falter in the last 100 yards and was caught in the shadow of the post. This was a brave effort though and he deserves the chance for compensation next season.
Seabass, a progressive chaser who had won his last six starts, was backed in to favouritism despite having yet to win beyond 2m6f. However, he stayed the trip really well, having been up with the pace throughout, and only weakened from the elbow. It was a fine ride fromKatie Walsh, who achieved the best placing of any female rider to complete the course.
grand national second look 140412 (more to come for the final draft
Friday, 13 April 2012
GRAND NATIONAL 2012 TRENDS
Starting with the obvious, all of the last fifteen winners had won over at least three miles. .
Seven of the last eight winners had already won over 3m2f or more.
Given that we’ll need a horse to jump thirty fences to win, it’s no surprise that those horses who fell, unseated or were brought down twice or less have had a monopoly on the race for the same fifteen year period.
Those with more than four non-completions of any description in chases (such as pulled up, etc) have also failed to register a win.
All of the last fifteen winners had fallen, unseated or been brought down twice or less.
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season
8 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions had won a class 2 chase worth 30K+)
9 of 10 (last 9) had won a chase worth 29K+
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since Sept 1
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases
French bred’s have an awful win record in the race, mainly because they are bred for shorter distances. Mon Mome was the first Gallic galloper to grab a Grand National for exactly one hundred years back in 2009. And he had won a Class 1 event over 3m2f.
Ignore French-bred’s unless they’ve won a Class 1 event at 3m2f+.Irish bred horses have the best record having won 9 of the last 10 and filled in 28 of 40 places (70%) from approximately 56.9% of the total runners.
Breeding Our Vic has sired 16 National runners in 4 renewals in past 10 years, with a record of 2-3-16.
The last twelve winners had at least ten chase starts under their belts. Eight of those twelve had between ten and fourteen chase starts to their name.
Even if we do end up with a less than full Grand National field this year, proven ability to win in a big field is a must. All of the last nine winners had won in a field of at least 14 runners.
Twelve of the last fifteen winners were aged nine or ten. All were aged eight to twelve.
The last two winners had failed to win in Graded company (2010 winner Don’t Push It was second in a Cheltenham Grade 3 event, and 2011 winner Ballabriggs won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival).
A win in Graded company/strong Cheltenham form, either in Graded and/or Festival company.
Fourteen of the last fifteen winners were rated 138 or higher. However, since the introduction of discretionary handicapping (where the BHA handicapper can allot more or less weight based on various factors), the last three winners were all rated at least 148.
I believe this is an important emerging trend, and that those at the foot of the weights are now unlikely to be good enough to beat their classier – and higher rated – rivals.
Look to horses rated 145 or higher.
Nine of the last twelve, and eight of the last nine Grand National winners had had at least one hurdles run that season. Ballabriggs was the latest to employ this tactic, running – and winning – twice in novice hurdle company before the weights were announced.
Look for horses who have raced over hurdles this season.
Ten of the last twelve Grand National winners had already had place finish in one of the English, Irish, Scottish, Welsh or Kerry Nationals.
Mark up National-winning form from one of the major variants.
In recent years with the weights being more closely bunched, higher weights have done better with the 14 of 16 places in the past 4 years being filled by horses carrying 10-11 or more.
8 of 10 winners were initially allotted a weight of between 10-5 and 11-0 on publication of National weights.
10 of 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight
Top Weight: F0FP290UF3 (0-2-10)
Course form
Previous Year's winner (Ballabriggs): 64026203 (0-4-8)
Becher Chase winner (West End Rocker): 92PPPFUP (0-1-8)
Previous season's Becher Chase winner (Hello Bud): 7CF2B (0-1-5)
Becher Chase winner two seasons ago (Vic Venturi): 131P (2-1-4)
Topham Chase winner (Always Waining): 25F (0-1-3)
Grand Sefton Chase winner (Stewarts House): 5 (0-0-1)
6 of 10 winners had previously run over the National fences
2 of 10 winners had won over the National fences, both in the Becher Chase 2 seasons previous
4 of 10 winners had run in previous season's Grand National, finishing 3FF0
3 of 10 winners had run in a Topham Chase, finishing 429
7 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Aintree National meeting (4 in GN, 2 in Topham & 1 in John Smith's H'cap Chase), 1 exception won previous season's Irish National, 1 won the Kim Muir and other exception didn’t race the previous season
Other Nationals
Previous season's Irish National winner (Organisedconfusion): FU1FFFP0 (1-0-8)
Welsh National winner (Le Beau Bai): UP (0-0-2)
Previous season's Welsh National winner (Synchronised): 20F (0-1-3)
Kerry National winner (Alfa Beat): 1P (1-0-2)
Previous season's Kerry National winner (Alfa Beat): 4 (0-1-1)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in the Irish, Welsh, or Aintree Grand Nationals
5 of 10 winners had run in a Welsh National, finishing 331P2
2 of 10 winners had run in an Irish National, finishing 01
2 of 10 winners had run in a Scottish National, finishing P9
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 20/1 or below.
There have been 2 big shocks in the past decade: a 33/1 winner in 2007 and a 100/1 winner in 2009.
8 of 10 winners were priced between 25/1 and 40/1 at publication of weights
Favourites (3-5-18) have gained 3 wins in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 7.50.
CLICK TO ENLARGEOthers at Aintree 130412
2.00 I adore the chances of Theatre Guide for the Tizzards - has a big shout to get in the frame at the current 20/1 is on a rapid climb for this race and still green as grass will be in the shake up if its learned more from its last run
4.15 the sefton hdle Will have a punt on knock A Hand in this I loved the way it traveled on the bit last time and has bags of improvement it hit the 2nd last so hard you would think it would fold up and is one battler who won so well was ridden by johnson that day and he gets off it for the probably favorite for his trainer but knock a hand is game -- money for lavells animal Gullinburst will be significant
5.25 will be looking for an upset in this race as 3 winners have stated in excess of 20/1 will stay with the really good filly As I Am to get a place at huge odds this has a deep round action like her sire but won on fast ground last time at Taunton and looked a real left handed animal. Buxom and Ginger Fizz are horses that will come on for this but the yards do like a punt and will be watching for market moves
good luck all
Bob
4.15 the sefton hdle Will have a punt on knock A Hand in this I loved the way it traveled on the bit last time and has bags of improvement it hit the 2nd last so hard you would think it would fold up and is one battler who won so well was ridden by johnson that day and he gets off it for the probably favorite for his trainer but knock a hand is game -- money for lavells animal Gullinburst will be significant
5.25 will be looking for an upset in this race as 3 winners have stated in excess of 20/1 will stay with the really good filly As I Am to get a place at huge odds this has a deep round action like her sire but won on fast ground last time at Taunton and looked a real left handed animal. Buxom and Ginger Fizz are horses that will come on for this but the yards do like a punt and will be watching for market moves
good luck all
Bob
Melling Chase 3.05 Aintree 130412
The grade 1 Melling Chase has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade, including Moscow Flyer, Voy Por Ustedes, Albertas Run and Master Minded. Run over 2M 4F, it gives the main protagonists from the Champion Chase and Ryanair a chance to meet.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-2
6yo: 0-1-5
7yo: 1-2-7
8yo: 2-5-24
9yo: 4-3-20
10yo: 2-2-15
11yo+: 1-1-8
Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-9-38
Horses aged 9+: 7-6-43
All 3 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred. All 7 winners aged 9 or older were Irish bred.
Breeding
Irish Bred: 7-7-35
French Bred: 3-6-31
German Bred: 0-1-2
British Bred: 0-1-12
American Bred 0-0-1
All 10 winners were either Irish or French bred.
8 of 9 French bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 or younger
13 of 14 Irish bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 or older
British bred runners gained no wins and just 1 place from 12 runners.
Price
9 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter
Only once in the past 10 runnings has the winner come from outside top 4 in the betting.
Favourites (5-3-12) have won 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.24.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Irish bred aged 9+ or French bred aged 5 to 8
· Had at least 15 career chase starts (won at least 5)
· Run 4 to 7 times this season
· Ran in this season’s Ryanair or Queen Mother Champion Chase
· Won over 2M 4F+ (or a previous Champion Chase winner)
· Won a grade 1 chase this season
· Ran in the King George this season
· Finished in first 2 in Tingle Creek and/or Ascot Chase
· Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in John Durkan, Fortria and/or Kinloch Brae
· Previously finished in first 3 in a race at the Aintree Festival
· Trained by Alan King, Jonjo O’Neill or in Ireland
· Priced 8/1 or shorter
its a shocker this year with nichols fielding two of the eight runners but I cannot see past Finnians Rainbow to win this - If Pure Faith can show Bowen's yard is back it has decent form this track and ground against some really tired hacks for the grade and just for fun am putting it in the forecast with Finnians
Bob
The John Smith’s Topham Chase 3.40 130412
The John Smith’s Topham Chase It is a 2M 5½F grade 3 handicap chase run over the Grand National fences.
Trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-15
6yo: 0-2-15
7yo: 1-2-31
8yo: 1-6-59
9yo: 3-8-63
10yo: 4-7-67
11yo+: 0-4-49
Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-11-110
Horses aged 9 or 10: 7-15-130
Horses aged 11 or older: 0-4-49
In past 5 years horses aged 9 or 10 have won 4 of 5 & filled 13 of the 20 places
Since 1983 none of the 91 runners aged 11+ have managed to win this race.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 2-18-144
Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 8-12-145
8 of the last 9 winners carried 10-5 or less
Top Weights: 03F00BF002F (0-2-11).
The only two top weights to make the frame have been Exit Swinger (2003) who had previously been placed in 3 graded chases & was runner-up in the Grand Annual and Scotsirish (2010) who had previously won two grade 2 chases.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time out (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced in Kim Muir)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since August
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 chase that season
9 of 10 winners were 3rd, 4th or 5th season chasers
8 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases (2 exceptions were French bred chasers aged 5 to 7 that had finished in first 2 in the Byrne Group Plate)
9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase worth 9K+
8 of 10 (last 7) had contested a graded chase
10 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track
4 of 10 winners (last 4) had run over hurdles that season
Racing Tactics
7 of 10 winners raced prominently throughout the race
It appears to be key that you have a runner who likes to be close to the leaders as 29 of the last 32 winners were in the vanguard from halfway.
Trainers
Peter Bowen (3-2-11) has saddled Always Waining to win the last 2 renewals and also trained Dunbrody Millar to win this in 2007.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-23), Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-12) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-14) have all saddled the winner in the past 10 years, though each has been heavily represented.
Irish trained runners (2-10-60) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings though much of that is down to Willie Mullins (1-5-8) who has seen 7 of his 8 runners make the first 5. Charlie Swan (0-2-6) has seen 5 of his 6 runners make the first 7 (other unseated).
Price
No strong trends on the prices.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won just 1 of the last 10, showing a level stakes loss of 6.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 10 or younger (especially 9 or 10yos)
· Carrying 10-5 or less
· Officially rated 128 to 141
· Do not discount horses running from out of the handicap
· Finished in first 4 last time out or ran in Kim Muir or Byrne Plate
· Ran in past 35 days
· Run 4 to 8 times since August and won no more than once
· Previously won 3 to 5 times over fences
· Run in 10 or more handicap chases (winning no more than 4)
· Third, fourth or fifth season chaser
· Won over 2M 4F+
· Won at a left-handed track
· Has contested a graded chase
· Previously run over the National fences (ideally finished in first 4)
· Finished in first 6 in Grand Sefton or Becher Chase in November 2011
· Finished in first 4 in 2011 Topham Chase
· Previously finished in first 4 in a Byrne Group Plate
· Tends to race prominently
· Trained by Peter Bowen, Willie Mullins or Charlie Swan
Triangular was a motionless when winning last time at newbury it had wings 2m6f favvy took it very easy dotted up with the first time T tie spectacular jumping had it won miles out
The horse that fits the profile really well is Fabalu running off 10-00 is a front runner who in the main jumps really well - his Ascot run last time showed him jumping to the left and that cost him first place all ground seems to come to him and his best figure ever was last time when I made his performance 139 - over 3miles leading or disputing only headed in the last part of the race. Running off 127 today he could well be 12lbs well in
Aimigale for Sue Smith is about 8lbs well in and though a mare is a bigun and a real front running stayer
Keep your eye on the one for the future Wake Board who though only 7 and out of the handicap is a very decent animal
Bob
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Aintree the rest of the cards 120412
Not messing about in the Big bucks opener and a small bet on Smad Place who is the biggest improver in my book this youngster has speed and pace on its side
2.30 Lyvius has a lot going for it and my each way selection
3.05 has to be Burton Port
hope to be online for the later races
enjoy the day
Bob
2.30 Lyvius has a lot going for it and my each way selection
3.05 has to be Burton Port
hope to be online for the later races
enjoy the day
Bob
John Smith’s Foxhunters 3.40 Aintree
The John Smith’s Foxhunters is restricted to amateur riders. In recent years the majority of the winners of this had bypassed the Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase.
We will know the ground is going to be soft but how soft is the question ?
past 10 runnings:
9 of 10 winners were aged 9 to 11, though they have accounted for almost 62.6% of total runners.
Horses aged 8 or younger or 13+ have gained no wins and just 4 places from 54 runners.
Breeding
Irish Bred: 4-8-141
French Bred: 3-7-45
British Bred: 3-5-63
Other: 0-0-5
No very strong trends to be found from where the winners have been bred, though French bred horses have done best proportional to their representatives.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
8 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 runs
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days (1 exception was Katarino winning the race for a second year after not racing since the previous year's win)
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over fences under rules (exception Katarino had not run over fences that season but won 2 point to points)
9 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 wins that season (Katarino had not run that season before winning it for second time)
8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 4 hunter chases (winning no more than 1)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at Newbury, Haydock, Fontwell or Sedgefield
Cheltenham Festival
Christies Foxhunters Chase winner: U6U (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing 3FU
You have to go back to 1993 and Double Silk for the last horse to do the Cheltenham/Aintree Hunter chase double.
Only 3 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival. In 2002 the 3rd and 2nd from the Christies Foxhunters finished 1st and 2nd in this but since then all 6 runners that won or placed at Cheltenham to run in this have been unplaced.
Other Races
Previous year's winner (): 251U2U7 (1-2-7)
Walrus Hunter Chase winner (Unowatimeen): 2U3U11 (2-2-6) Had a really hard race and finished walking over the line knackered
Lambourn Open Day 6th April Hunter Chase winner (Offshore Account): 1F (1-0-2)
Clonmel Festival Week Maiden Hunters Chase winner (Boxer Georg): 3 (0-1-1) ran at cheltenham hunter prominent runner who will appreciate the ground
Ubique Hunters' Chase winner (Gwanako): 3 (0-1-1)
Queen Mother Memorial Hunters' Chase winner (Gwanako): 44 (0-0-2)
pointtopoint.co.uk Hunters' Chase winner (The Polomoche): 5U (0-0-2)
Magnus-Allcroft Memorial Trophy Hunter Chase winner (Fresh Air And Fun): 5F0 (0-0-3)
Betfred "Will They, Won't They" Memorial Hunters' Chase winner (Island Life): F6U (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitelaw Challenge Cup, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Walrus hunter Chase, finishing 11
Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners led or raced prominently through the race
Only Katarino in 2005 won after being held up. Typically in these one lap races over the National fences you do need to be up amongst the leading 9 or 10.
Trainers
Robert Waley-Cohen (2-1-4) trained Katarino to gain 2 wins and a 2nd.
Paul Nicholls (1-1-11) has seen 7 of his 11 runners complete the course and 6 of those 7 finished in the first 5.
Dr Richard Newland (1-0-2) is the only other trainer represented that has won the race since 2002.
Willie Mullins (0-1-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners finish in the first 4 and he saddled Boxer Georg of finish 2nd last year while Tracey Bailey trained Offshore Account to finish 3rd, both horses are entered again this year.
Irish trained runners (0-5-45) have gained no wins and just 5 places from 45 runners. They have been responsible for 5 favourites in that time.
Price
9 of 10 winners were priced between 3/1 and 8/1
In 2010 Silver Adonis won at 50/1, the only double figure price winner since 2000.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 1.67. 5 of the last 10 beaten favourites were trained in Ireland (all Irish favourites beaten).
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 9 to 11
· Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 40 days
· Won on 1 of last 2 starts
· Won 2 or more chases under rules
· Won over 2M 4F+
· Won a class 3 or better chase
· Won 1 or 2 chases this season
· Run in 4 or fewer hunter chase (winning no more than 1)
· Won a chase at Newbury, Haydock, Sedgefield or Fontwell
· Bypassed the Cheltenham Festival or didn’t complete in Christies Foxhunters
· Finished in first 3 in Whitelaw Challenge Cup or Walrus Hunter Chase
· Tends to race prominently
· Trained in Great Britain
· Priced between 3/1 and 8/1
This is a lovely hunter chase and I really do like the animals that have won from the front this distance and provisional selection is Silver Adonis who loves to front run loves the track and has a touch of class and i have to have two in the race so will include Unowatimeen who has had time to get over that hard race
This is a lovely hunter chase and I really do like the animals that have won from the front this distance and provisional selection is Silver Adonis who loves to front run loves the track and has a touch of class and i have to have two in the race so will include Unowatimeen who has had time to get over that hard race
Red Rum Handicap Chase 120412 4.15 Aintree
Red Rum Handicap Chase takes place at Aintree today 12th April. It is a 2M grade 3 handicap chase that usually attracts many of the horses that contested the Grand Annual at Cheltenham. All 10 winners were aged 6 to 9, though that age group represented almost 82% of the total runners. You have to go back to 1993 for the last winner aged 10+
.Other Races
Previous season's winner (Silk Drum): 27P9R (0-1-5)
bettor.com Social Betting Handicap Chase winner (Song Sung Blue): 6815 (1-0-4)
At The Races Virgin 534 Novices' Chase winner (Kumbeshwar): 2 (0-1-1)
John Parrett Memorial Chase winner (Takeroc): 3 (0-1-1)
Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase (Astracad): 4P7 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Grand Annual last time, finishing 3F151
4 of last 6 winners ran in a Newbury chase over 2M to 2M 4F that season, finishing 1231Jockeys
Claiming jockeys: 3-2-26
Non-claimers: 7-23-129
The winners in 2011, 2010 & 2008 were all ridden by claimers and only one claiming jockey rode in the 2009 renewal, on a 40/1 shot.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 9
· Ran in past 35 days
· Posted highest chase RPR in last 2 outings
· Carrying 10-8 or less
· Officially rated 129 to 142
· Run no more than 13 times over fences
· Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
· Won a class 3 or higher chase
· Won a chase at a left-handed track
· Novice chasers do well (never finished outside first 4 in a completed chase)
· Has previous Aintree Festival form
· Ran in the Grand Annual Chase last time
· Finished in first 3 in Newbury chase over 2M-2M4F this season
· Trained by Alan King
· Priced 10/1 or shorter (favourites do well)
Its a hard nut to crack and the stats are against previous winners really but Silk Drum gets in here light and tounge tie looks a big plus even for the second run
I never give up on Song Sun Blue and dropped back to 2miles is not a minus in my book - has won left handed and a very good each way bet today off this mark
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