Here comes Ascot 180612

Top Racing and plenty of ways to get carried away but you should take a view of past trends when your betting at the royal meeting

The King’s Stand Stakes is the second race of day 1 of the Royal Ascot meeting. Run over 5 furlongs, it was promoted to a group 1 class in 2008. In the past 10 years the race has been dominated by overseas runners with 6 of the last 9 winners being trained outside of Britain and Ireland.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-5-31

4yo: 2-6-45

5yo: 3-3-36

6yo: 2-3-32

7yo+: 2-3-33

Horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 3-11-76

Horses aged 5 or older have a record of 7-9-101

Nothing major to be gleaned from the age stats. The two 3yo winners since 2000 had both won or placed in a group race as 2yos.

Gender

Fillies & mares (2-5-31) have done alright in this, winning 2 of 10 and filling almost a quarter of the places from approximately 17.5% of total runners.

 Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners (last 7) finished in first 2 last time out (2 exceptions finished 4th in group 2 and 6th in group 1)

7 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 116+ last time out

8 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception was a listed winner and other had twice been placed in a group 2)

5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 sprint (2 others finished in first 6 in previous Abbey and other 3 had not run in a group 1 sprint prior to this)

8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that year

8 of 10 winners had won a race that year

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 6F (exception placed on only run over 6F)

9 of 10 winners had won over 5F (exception runner-up in a 5F group 2)

3 of 4 British-trained winners had won at Ascot (other was placed in a group 2 and Wokingham here)

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Prohibit): 4748 (0-0-4)

Meydan Classifieds Trophy winner (Monsieur Joe): 1 (1-0-1)

Prix De Saint-Georges winner (Beyond Desire): 01 (1-0-2)

Coral Charge Sprint Stakes winner (Night Carnation): 100 (1-0-3)

Previous season's Cornwallis Stakes winner (Ponty Acclaim): 150 (1-0-3)

Previous season's King George Stakes winner (Masamah): 1006 (1-0-4)

Temple Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 300368 (0-2-6)

Middle Park Stakes winner (Crusade): 3 (0-1-1)

Flying Five Stakes winner (Amore Propre): 2070 (0-1-4)

Previous season's Nunthorpe winner (Margot Did): 90538 (0-1-5) (Visored First time today)

Previous season's Abbaye winner (Tangerine Trees): 0670 (0-0-4)

Prix du Gros Chene winner (Wizz Kid): 870

Highest placed finisher from Prix du Gros Chene to run in this: 50087101 (2-0-8)

4 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in Newmarket H’cap last time, finishing 6111

4 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in Lightning Stakes, finishing 1111

3 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in the Oakleigh Plate, finishing 335

2 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in the Age Classic, finishing 17

2 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in Salinger Stakes, finishing 43

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Du Gros-Chene last time, finishing 422

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Saint-Georges, finishing 214

3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in previous Abbaye, finishing 306

2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in Temple Stakes, finishing 23

2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in previous season's Wokingham, finishing 30

2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in Palace House Stakes, finishing 19

2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in World Trophy, finishing 53

Trainers

British trained runners: 4-14-139

Australian trained: 4-3-14

French trained runners: 1-0-6

Spanish trained: 1-0-1

Hong Kong trained: 0-2-4

Irish trained runners: 0-1-6

South African trained: 0-0-2

American trained: 0-0-3

Other 0-0-2

Record of horses trained in Britain & Ireland: 4-15-145

Record of horses trained outside Britain & Ireland: 6-5-32

Australian based trainers (4-3-14) have the best record of the foreign trainers winning 4 of the last 9, their one runner last year was 2nd.

Robert Cowell (1-0-1) trained Prohibit to win this last year and he is only trainer with an entrant that has won this since 2002.

Jeremy Noseda (0-2-3) and Henry Candy (0-2-4) have both saddled a couple of placed finishers in past 10 years.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)

Horses drawn 1 to 8: 2-4-72

Horses drawn 9 to 15: 7-9-58

Horses drawn 16 or higher: 0-5-31

Horses drawn between stalls 10 and 15 have won 7 of last 9 runnings of this.

Price

7 of last 8 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter

There have been a few upsets in this race in the past decade with 3 of 10 winners going between 16/1 and 25/1 though in the past 8 years, 7 of 8 winners came from first 5 in the betting

Favourites (2-4-11) have won just 2 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Run 2 to 4 times in 2012 (winning at least once)

·         Finished in first 2 last time (posting RPR of 116+)

·         Previously won over 6F

·         Won a group race (preferably a group 1)

·         Finished in first 4 in Prix de Saint-Georges

·         Ran in Prix du Gros-Chene, Temple Stakes or Newmarket H’cap last time

·         Trained outside of GB & Ire, especially Australian based

·         Course winner (if trained in GB & Ire)

·         Drawn in stalls 10 to 15

·         Priced 8/1 or shorter

Racing has been pretty awful?

WHEN YOU ARE IN  DEEP SHIT, LOOK STRAIGHT AHEAD,
KEEP YOUR MOUTH  SHUT & SAY NOTHING

you need to look at breeding again today guys 160612

its gonna be tuff and thats the easiest thing to say about todays racing
going through the cards 
 2.05 York Lexington Bay (breed from High Chapparel) will love the ground - performed well  last time and coming to decent form will stay and stay and love the ground 14s currently betfair

2.20 Sandown up in grade but Opinion is a decent animal on soft ground powered home over 1m2f  never tried on a track stiff as this but moore rides it well and no stamina issues - prob fav Takeitfromalady will handle the ground but will not stay as well as Opinion


hexham 2.25  really heavy ground and Farm Pixie gave our Samstown a real race last time out here same conditions


2.35 york and Goldie and lee team up with HillView Boy who at 8 is showing some of its old dash these conditions and can stay further than this


3.25 Sandown and Free Zone currently 16s  can give the red hot favvy pearl Secret a run for the money and am in a reverse forecast these two with a win on free zone who has proven soft ground form that matches the favvy


4.05 hexham and will stay with Stormion who will relish the ground stays all day has improved its hdles with the pieces and expected today


 Good luck today guys


 Bob

Sunday 10th June 2012

Great Day Yesterday and am in the market for a new Yacht (sigh)  if you havent looked at the run of Samstown and Chapter Seven then I suggest you do and put them into your nag me list! (Big Time)


- have discovered a great new wall 
http://www.racingtwits.com


sign up there and its better than the old layout for Timeform Radio wall  - believe me 

hope to instant chat  with you on selections there


Bob

GOING MAKES IT INTERESTING -THE SIRE ANGLE 090612

The going makes it no more than interesting punting today and would not advise any big punts till the market recognizes the emphasis on the ability of the ground conditions - low handicap marks AND sire ability to handle the conditions. those of you who punt with a good idea of the capabilities of soft ground sired animal will have the edge. 

THIS IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT when your looking at races where the animals have had few runs and head the market or your particular slant on seeing them perform on going different to today's

 for example I illustrate the 2.05 handicap at Doncaster

GreyMirage heads the market at time of writing - sired by Oasis Dream who has proven was best on a faster surface than today - yet won a heavy ground race at Sandown over the mile - looks the best horse in the line up - it won all the way unchallenged off a mark of 68 and has gone up 10lbs for this today. in my book has 5lbs to find and is the biggest improver - Botti trained looks formidable when backed.

looking for value elsewhere there are two soft ground sired horses lining up that should be considered and watched for money from their yards ---Chapter Seven and Well Painted  are both bred from Excellent Art who was a proven mud lark and as yet have not encountered ground this soft.  BUT and this is the but Chapter Seven has won a class 2 at a mile winning a 32k race in the process and has run 7 times so has the experience needed in big fields he won a good handicap  was dropped in at the tail of the field and was fortunate to have a gap open up nicely for him on the rail, so that he was able to stay on strongly unimpeded. While things fell kindly for him in the race itself, this was still a step up on his 2yo efforts, and the extra distance was clearly in his favour. Richard Fahey had said beforehand that the colt had done very well physically over the winter, and there could easily be more to come from him.

Well Painted has had only the one run and was as green as grass only really getting the hang of it late on over 7flngs and running on well on good / g.soft ground. but to my mind has been hammered by the handicapper in its first handicap if this one wins it will be a nag me horse for sure off this mark - the lack of experience and claimer ridden makes me turn towards the less market fancied Chapter Seven.✔

Because am feet up today have done the same breeding analysis throughout the channel Four cards 

2.20 Newmarket (allegedly drying!)  Chill the Kite✔✔✔ and Dixies Dream✔✔ are bred for the conditions 

2.35 Chester Viva Ronaldo✔  with a good claimer gets back in on a good mark for a horse that can handle bottomless ground

2.55 Newmarket Shropshire✔ is completely unfancied at the moment but ran a cracker here in soft ground when the winner came from the other side of the track 

3.10 Chester - how does Oceanway✔get a lower mark than he ran off at Chester in soft ground? has the best distance speed of these and is 7lbs well in in my book

3.30 the top weight Trooping the Colour✔✔✔under Frankie is actually well in these conditions bred from Nayef looks a solid bet and frankie has it all to prove!

3.45 Doncaster and lee takes the ride on Louis the Pious and has chances (though tricky bugger) will have it all to do but is a very tricky race to way up and prob not a bet at this time 

4.00 Newmarket the best prize money on offer and High Jinx ✔( is bred for this ground and a worthy fav in my eyes with a great draw advantage) but the animals to watch because of their breeding are Spifer ✔ - Ermyn Lodge ✔- High Office ✔- Western Pearl✔ -Lyssio✔ -  The Animal that seems to be discounted yet has great course and ground form is Ithoughitwasallover✔

Dont forget there are other races and some decent action at Heavy ground hexham 

1.50 I have to stay with Samstown who I reckon is an up and coming star I’m confident this drop down in trip from 2m4f did not suit him and it looked as so the rest of the field were always going just a yard too fast for him. Saying that it was probably a smart move by connections to stick him over this trip at this early stage of his career as he will have learned plenty at the faster pace the heavy going will bring the best out in him

 good luck today 

 dont bet the mortgage

 Bob

  

Epsom Oaks and Derby 2012

For those of you who have not been to either meeting and taking your first punts in these races take a look at this really informative Video by Lydia Hislop  supreme horse and jockey is required and betting is all about paddock and parade visuals --- over the years have watched horses lose it in the noisiest parade ring parade and canter to the start .. no matter how good you think your animal/jockey is this is the time to watch watch watch....
http://www.skysports.com/video/inline/0,26691,19978_7786614,00.html


only time I have not been to this meeting in 73 years is 5 (yep went there as a babe in arms when the whole family went there from Monday onward's) I am one of the old school - but the truth is the calmest horse with ability and stamina wins the races and the horse that cannot take the hurly burly will lose. Race hardened Jockeys cannot get the horse home if its already sweated buckets getting to the post.


 The Investec Oaks takes place on Friday 1st June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets recently with Look Here at 33/1 in 2008 and Dancing Rain at 20/1 last year landing the prize.

2yo Form

E B F "Makfi" Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (The Fugue): 01 (1-0-2)

Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Maybe): 245 (0-1-3)

Silver Flash Stakes winner (Maybe): 50 (0-0-2)

Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile winner: 64 (0-0-2)

Highest finisher from Fillies' Mille to run in this: 016916040 (2-0-9)

Debutante Stakes winner (Maybe): 45 (0-0-2)

Montrose Stakes winner (Coquet): 684 (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Fillies Mile as a 2yo, finishing 22

3yo Form

Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Vow): 801541 (2-0-6)

Height Of Fashion Stakes winner (Coquet): 622716 (1-2-6)

Musidora Stakes winner (The Fugue): 8338516 (1-2-7)

Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Kailani): 0510000 (1-0-7)

Irish 1000 Guineas winner: 2 (0-1-1)

Salsabil Stakes winner (Kissed): 257 (0-1-3)

Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Vow): 779029 (0-1-6)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Sweetenham Stud Stakes, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21

The last 8 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

Other 2 winners ran in English 1000 Guineas last time, finishing 16

Price

8 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, though 2 of the last 4 winners have been priced between 20/1 and 33/1.

Favourites (4-2-11) have a good recent record in this having won 4 of the last 10 and showing a level stakes profit of 2.71 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2

·         Dosage Index of around 1.06

·         Centre of Distribution of around 0.10

·         Had 1 or 2 runs this season

·         Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR -MR last time

·         Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)

·         Won over 1M+

·         Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)

·         Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial

·         Finished in first 2 in Fillies’ Mile as a 2yo

·         Trained by Henry Cecil or William Haggas

·         Favourite does well

*****************************************************************

The Investec Derby takes place on Saturday 2nd June and this year’s race will see Camelot look to emulate the achievement of Sea The Stars in 2009, by winning both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts

10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts

10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on all starts that season

7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)

9 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 118+ last time out

10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days

5 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (5 exceptions not run in a group 1 as a 2yo)

9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce in 2010, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)

9 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they'd run in

6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)

9 of 10 winners had first run as a 2yo over 7F or 8F (7 of 9 at a group 1 track)

The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 39 times before winning the race. In those 39 starts they had finished outside first 3 only 3 times, all 3 occasions were on first run as 2yo.

 2yo Form

Racing Post Trophy winner (Camelot): 106116 (3-0-6)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners made debut in 7F Darley EBF Maiden at Curragh

3yo Form

Dante Stakes winner (Bonfire): 391101203 (3-3-9)

2000 Guineas winner (Camelot): 01 (1-0-2)

Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 247011045 (2-1-9)

Dee Stakes winners (Astrology): 15080 (1-0-5)

Chester Vase winner (Mikdaam): 566054502 (0-1-9)

Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Main Sequence): 804093670 (0-1-9)

4 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Dante, finishing 1112

3 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 221

Price

10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 6/1 or below.

Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.50 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+

·         Montjeu’s progeny do well

·         Born before 07/04/2009

·         Dosage index of around 1.15

·         Centre of Distribution of around 0.24

·         Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track

·         Run 2 to 5 times before (winning at least half those starts)

·         Run once or twice in 2012

·         Never finished worse than 3rd (excluding racecourse debuts)

·         Had run in the past 35 days

·         Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)

·         Posted an RPR of 118+ last time

·         Previously on a group race

·         Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)

·         Won over 7F+ as a 2yo & over 1M 2F as a 3yo

·         Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo

·         Won or placed in Dante or 2000 Guineas as 3yo

·         Priced 6/1 or below

 Good Luck all - the rest of the card on both days is well worth getting up for 

 Bob

Be wary today and for a while - Health Warning 270512

Our Top selection for the 2000gns race and the biggest disappointment was Trumpet Major, who was off the pace but in a good position most of the way. He found nil when asked for his effort and was found to be coughing post race.Make a note of that cos he is better than this.


It takes a while for coughing to come to light - temper your enthusiasm for Hannon Horses over the next few weeks to see if the yard is infected - its the same reminder i gave for Nichols yard where it had a devastating effect  and  I took a lot of scoffers money at Cheltenham--- Coughing for a horse takes yonks no matter how good the trainer jabs or voodoo


 Bob 

Look back at the Irish 2000 Guineas 260512

Not exactly the most straightforward of Classics and it may well take some time to find some context for it.  We Did really well to find the second at big prices and its worthy of review

There was an eerie sort of similarity to a year before when Roderic O´Connor won this after being beaten out of sight at Newmarket and that was the situation with POWER as well. The race was run somewhat differently with Joseph sitting some way off the pace set by his stablemate before eventually getting into gear and coming home to some effect. He´s not a horse that instantly quickens buthe builds up momentum and finishes to some effect, but a sound surface is essential and that´s something he didn´t get at Newmarket. One would imagine that a truly run mile on top of the ground will suit him best and he´s probably much more of a pure miler than Camelot. In truth, the 3-y-o division at this distance probably lacks a bit of strength in depth and there´s little reason why he shouldn´t be a force in races such as the St James Palace Stakes. 


Our Top selection for the race and the biggest disappointment was Trumpet Major, who was off the pace but in a good position most of the way. He found nil when asked for his effort and was found to be coughing post race.Make a note of that cos he is better than this

The supplementary entry given Foxtrot Romeo was fully justified and while his bare form doesn´t exactly look good in the context of a Classic, it´s obvious that he has improved hugely. He was at the head of the chasing group for most of the way and really sustained his effort strongly from two furlongs out. One would say he can get a little bit further but one would imagine he can still improve considering his one win before this was in a Hamilton maiden. He could well be an interesting horse for the remainder of the season. 


http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=CUR_2012_05_26_04_1515

Bob

Saturday 26th may 2012 Irish 2000 Guineas

Its a beautiful day down here in kent and been working on the pond rather than wondering what horse can get to the post faster than the rest - the form has settled down a tad and though not a great flat aficionado it usually attracts me to Epsom and the other big meetings - Roll on the Derby meeting where i hope to meet up with friends old and new for the annual alcoholic bash.

 The Abu Dhabi Irish 2000 Guineas takes place at the Curragh today Saturday 26th May. In recent times Aidan O’Brien has proven the only trainer capable of keeping the prize in Ireland, winning 7 of the last 15 runnings, with the other 8 going back across the Irish Sea to Great Britain. Excluding Aidan O’Brien, Vincent O’Brien in 1988 is the only other Irish trainer to have won the race in the past 25 years.

Breeding

Irish bred: 7-14-59

American bred: 2-2-19

British bred: 1-2-18

French bred: 0-0-1

8 of 10 winners (last 5) were sired by a group 1 winner

7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse who had won over no further than 1 mile

Galileo progeny: 6291 (1-1-4) – 2 unplaced were priced 100/1 & 40/1.

Danehill Dancer progeny: 3183 (1-2-4) (Foxtrot Romeo)

10 of 10 winners were born before 9th April

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo

10 of 10 winners had had 4 to 8 career starts

10 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season

10 of 10 winners ran in the last 21 days

8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F

8 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (other 2 placed in group company)

9 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in first 4 in a group 1 (6 won)

4 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (5 of 6 exceptions were having first course start)

Draw - even with a smallish field the draw has been significant on fast ground and there is a slight advantage being drawn low

2yo Races

National Stakes winner (Power): 1221 (2-2-4)

Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 11 (2-0-2)

Dewhurst winner (Parish Hall): 132 (1-2-3)

EBF Sussex Society Magazine Maiden Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 1 (1-0-1)

Alfred Nobel EBF 2yo Maiden winner (Power): 1 (1-0-1)

Killavullan Stakes winner (Nephrite): 37422 (0-3-5)

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner (Wrote): 5 (0-0-1)

Champagne Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 6 (0-0-1)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (Daddy Long Legs): 067 (0-0-3)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 1042

3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 611

3 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 252

2 of 10 winners ran in the Gimcrack Stakes, finishing 16

2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersall Stakes, finishing 36

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 14

3yo Races

English 2000 Guineas winner: 1211 (3-1-4)

Highest placed finisher from 2000 Guineas to run in this: 1024211812 (5-2-10)

Record of horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 033242164328512 (2-6-15)

Tetrarch Stakes winner (Takar): 224322 (0-5-6)

Craven Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 38 (0-1-2)

10 of 10 winners ran in English 2000 Guineas last time, finishing 1075411530

Trainers

10 of 10 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Great Britain

Aidan O’Brien (4-6-35) has won 4 of the last 10 however his runners have made up almost a third of the total to go to post in the race in the past 10 years.

British-trained runners (6-3-24) have won 6 of the past 10 runnings of this race.

Richard Hannon (1-2-3) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 3 runners. Canford Cliffs won it in 2010, his entry this year, Trumpet Major won same Goodwood maiden as a 2yo as 2005 winner, Dubawi.

Jim Bolger (0-4-7) and John Oxx (0-2-6) have each saddled multiple placed runners.

Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

Favourites (5-5-11) have won 5 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 1.20 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sire won a group 1 over 6F to 8F

·         Born before 9th April

·         Had 4 to 8 career starts (1 or 2 runs in 2012)

·         Won first time out as a 2yo

·         Won a group or listed race

·         Finished in first 4 in a group 1

·         Finished in first 6 in Dewhurst, Coventry and/or Champagne Stakes as 2yo

·         Ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time out

·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Britain

·         From first 4 in the betting

So On the Stats of previous winners you have to have Hannon on your side in my opinion and Trumpet Major has the form in the book its run in the English Guineas where it was only 3.5l behind Camelot -(The final time was just over five seconds slower than when Trumpet Major won the Craven over C&D. He´s not considered a soft ground horse (flopped on testing going in last year´s Solario), so it´s no surprise he was below form, and he probably did well to finish so close.) This was its second entry for today and the ground drying must make the final decision for this colt . 

Joker in the pack  Foxtrot Romeo----Brian Smart does not spend money on plane fares without thinking hard and he has said he will be looking for a big run today - it has already been taken quietly on the exchanges and you had to say its run at Newbury last time was pretty good and is crying out for a distance of ground - its breeding says he can get into the places where it is currently trading at 9.4 and could be a very big price 

 have fun today

 Bob