TODAY! The Great Voltigeur Stakes York 220812

The big one! its a watcher really  ladies and gentlemen but I cannot resist looking at the place and win market for my 80% / 20% Place/ win selection 

 Frankel at 1/7 pacemakers galore and ground going to be lightening fast with the drying conditions. 
Without Nathaniel who would have been in the mix up but for the ground conditions  - where do we look for an animal that can fill the runner up spot? 

Naughty Boy Farhh under Frankie Dettori  has its ground and cannot be taken lightly - its fast finishing 1/2 length behind Nathaniel offers hope - its mucking about in the stall was not so evident at Sandown and the good to soft ground was against him that day. 4yr old Colt by Pivotal who has the right dosage requirements and its penchant for fast ground says he is the best of the rest at this distance - Runners who fared well in the Eclipse as that race was have come on to win here this race 6 times in the last 10 years and the trainer has won it twice 

see you at the races - not one to miss

 Bob

The Great Voltigeur Stakes York 220812

The Great Voltigeur Stakes takes place on Wednesday, on the opening day of the York Ebor meeting. A group 2, run over a mile and a half for 3yos only, it is generally considered as one of the best trials for the final classic of the year, the St Leger, with Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno all pulling off the double since 2000.

Below we take a look at trends for past 10 renewals (2001-2011):

Age

Race for 3yos

Breeding

9 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 9.9+

9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (exception was by multiple graded winner in USA)

Weight

Horses who have won a group 2 race in 2012 receive a 3lb penalty. Since 2001 nine runners have run under a 3lb penalty and all 9 have been beaten & just 3 made the places.

The prices of the 10 runners to attempt to carry a penalty have been Evens, 5/2, 11/4, 3/1, 4/1, 4/1, 9/2, 8/1 & 12/1.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 109+ last time (exception won maiden on last start)

7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (2 of 3 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a group 1 over 1M 2F+)

8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a listed or group race (2 exceptions were trained by Michael Stoute, both run once and won once that season)

5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a group 1

0 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2

Other Races

Highest placed finisher from Epsom Derby (Main Sequence): 217128113 (4-3-9)

Gordon Stakes winner (Noble Mission): 12275 (1-2-5)

Newmarket Stakes winner (Noble Mission): 421 (1-1-3)

Bahrain Trophy winner (Shantaram): 1 (1-0-1)

Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Main Sequence): 14 (1-0-2)

King Edward VII winner (Thomas Chippendale): 268935 (0-2-6)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 8243

3 of 10 winners ran in the King Edward VII, finishing 492

2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Derby, finishing 46

2 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 24

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (2-7-17) trained the winner in 2001 & 2003 and has saddled a placed finisher in each of last 2 renewals. Record of his first string reads 11336223 (2-3-8).

Mahmood Al Zarooni (1-0-2) trained Rewilding to win this in 2010.  

John Gosden (1-0-5) trained the winner in 2007 and also the winner of the rearranged race at Goodwood in 2008.

Price

8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

The 2 winners since 2001 to go off bigger than 6/1 were Youmzain in 2006 at 12/1 and Monitor Closely in 2009 at 28/1.

Favourites (3-5-10) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings at York but show a level stakes loss of 3.32.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sired by group 1-winner with a stamina index of 9.9f+

·         Finished in the first 3 last time out, posting RPR of 109+

·         Won over 1M 2F+ (or placed at group level over 1M 2F+)

·         Finished in first 3 in a group race

·         Highest placed finisher from Epsom Derby to run in does well

·         Finished in first 4 in Dante and/or King Edward VII

·         Trained by O’Brien, Gosden or Al Zarooni

·         From first 3 in the betting

 I REALLY THINK THIS CAN GO TO Sir HENRY CECIL WITH THOMAS CHIPPENDALE.
 AM CONVINCED AS GOOD AS MAIN SEQUENCE IS HE IS NOT THE WINNER OF THIS RACE 


Result 1 Thought Worthy 9/1
2 Main Sequence 13/8 Fav

The note ref the weight in the above was the one that came good again (Since 2001 nine runners have run under a 3lb penalty and all 9 have been beaten & just 3 made the places.)

  Thomas Chippendale looks very coltish and is off my list as likely winner

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  robert taylor what a brill ride from Buick Thoughtworthy had his ground and the ride settled it well

The Juddmonte International 220812

The Juddmonte International Stakes is the highlight of day 1 of York’s Ebor meeting, Wednesday 22nd August. It’s a group 1 run over 1M 2½F for 3yos and this year’s renewal will see Frankel race over a trip in excess of a mile for the very first time. With York being abandoned in 2008, this race was run at Newmarket, but from a trends point of view we will focus on the last 10 runnings at York.

Below we take a look at the trends for past 10 runnings (2001- 2011):

Age

3yo: 2-3-22

4yo: 5-5-28

5yo: 2-5-17

6yo+: 1-0-4

4yos have won 5 of last 10 from 39.4% of total runners

The three winners aged 3 since 2000 were Sea The Stars (Derby & 2000 Guineas winner), Authorized (Derby winner) and Giant’s Causeway (runner-up in English & Irish 2000 Guineas). All 3 were multiple group 1-winners.

Last year Twice Over became the first ever horse aged older than 5 to win the race. He had finished runner-up in the previous year’s race and last year’s renewal failed to include any 3yo runners, as does this year's.

Gender

Fillies/mares (0-1-5) have filled 1 place from 5 runners.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season

9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ last time out

8 of 10 winners had won a race that year (2 exceptions were placed in a group 1 that year)

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (exception finished 2nd in Eclipse & 4th in Derby)

8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (two exceptions were 2nd in a group 1)

Gender

Fillies/mares (0-1-5) have filled 1 place from 5 runners.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season

9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ last time out

8 of 10 winners had won a race that year (2 exceptions were placed in a group 1 that year)

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (exception finished 2nd in Eclipse & 4th in Derby)

8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (two exceptions were 2nd in a group 1)

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Twice Over): 33 (0-1-2)

Eclipse winner (Nathaniel): 31312 (2-2-5)

Previous season's QEII winner (Frankel): 1 (1-0-1)

York Stakes winner (Sri Putra): 1 (1-0-1)

Sussex Stakes winner (Frankel): 2 (0-1-1)

Lockinge winner (Frankel): 3 (0-1-1)

Queen Anne winner (Frankel): 37 (0-1-2)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 141221

4 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 4545

3 of 10 winners ran in the King George last time, finishing 253

2 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season’s Champion Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the Derby, finishing 11

2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 21

Trainers

Saeed Bin Suroor (2-0-8) has won the race twice since 2001.

Henry Cecil (1-2-3) trained the 1st & 2nd last year, the 2nd in 2010, the 1st & 3rd in 1999 and also the runner-up at the rescheduled running at Newmarket.

Aidan O’Brien (1-1-17) has saddled 7 runners priced shorter than 4/1 and only two have made the frame. He has also been responsible for three beaten favourites.

2 of the 4 French-trained runners since 2001 have been placed though there has been no French-trained winner since 1987.

Price

9 of 10 winners went off shorter than 6/1

The highest price winner of this in the last 10 years was Notnowcato in 2006 at 8/1.

Favourites (5-1-10) have won 5 of last 10 at York and show a level stakes profit of 1.75.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 or 5

·         Run at least twice this season

·         Won or placed last time, posting an RPR of 117+

·         Won over 1M 2F+

·         Won a group 1

·         Finished in the first 2 in the Eclipse Stakes

·         Ran in the Prince of Wales and/or the King George

·         Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor or Henry Cecil

Priced shorter than 6/1

It will take a brave punter to back against Frankel he is a giant player and looks all over a horse that can win over this extended distance for him. 

18th August 2012

Two races attract me today - 

The great Wilfred  3.30 at Ripon will be a cracker of a race on the predicted g/frm ground  drawn low have the best stats for this race since 2011 ( but 11 to 15 ! with previous form on the track)  over 6flngs have a very good strike rate overall!

 last year high numbers were first three home 17 20 19 - so I am well attracted to Singeur who looks a bit of a course specialist hitting form just right only its third run of season loves lightening fast ground handles big fields gets in about 6lbs on its last run. 14/1 currently and this return to 6flngs is right up its street
 Currently the ground has some g/sft in the description (though very drying conditions) brings Louis the Pious into contention you can say he was unlucky at Goodwood under similar course undulations and if it dries out as I suspect it will the outsider and joker in the pack has to be Seal Rock for the place market.

The greys race 2.45 at newmarket - I really do like the chances of bottom weight Red Avalanche gets a tad outpaced in his races and finishes with a rare rattle but Dream Catcher will take my bet under Cathy Gannon for candy winner of his last two and an easy winner at that last time 

 Good luck all

Bob
  

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Cold trainers 160812

Hot trainers last 14 days 160812

Thursday 9th August 2012

 Hi Guys - not had much interest in the horses form and predicting winners of late - truth is this is a pretty poor flat racing period and doldrums time looks set for a while.

Graham lee continues to impress with an incredible ride rate and cannot be let  alone even though the animals he is riding are going off at big prices,has chances today at haydock 5.10  on All For You upped in distance to 1m3f 

 When I do have a bet its in the distance races and struck gold yesterday with Passion Planet at 16/1 and Susies a Class Act at 8/1 - both stand out distance and track runners in the Vfb  today the 1m6f at Yarmouth and some interest in the course/distance winner Satwa Ballerina  IF the ground is not too quick for her but its a big if 

 I also have been collecting with Candy horses as his string are hitting the heights - Woolstone Ferry was an outstanding winner  at Pontefract yesterday. he is going to brighton today but his rider Dane O'Neil has his only runner at Sandown tonight in the 8.20 Beauchamp Zorro gets in well for this race  its the second time Dane has ridden the animal and the going track and draw will help it - currently 12/1 betfair is able to capitalize on his third handicap off this mark 

Today there is one animal well under the radar in the 3.50 at Brighton - Layline - a gelding by kings Best - currently 17/2 Betfair and Iexpect it to be backed - on its form it has a stand out chance under Eddy Ahern it produced a figure of around 90 on the Aw at Lingfield 9class 3)  and at Epsom latest run in an armatures race a figure of  74 -  He´s well treated on turf compared to his very useful Polytrack form and he´s capable of picking up a race on grass granted a stiffer overall gallop. - he should get that today  with two confirmed front runners in the field.

 good luck today guys

Bob

the form is always suspect but more so at the moment

To be honest this is the worst time in memory for following current form for animals - its more than ever a problem of the weather and ground conditions with horses running "well" on unsuitable ground and finding a repeat performance beyond them on more suitable ground in their next race. Trainers have had massive problems with their gallops - turning up at abandoned meetings - turning up for meetings that suddenly deteriorate withing the space of a couple of hours. To Run anyway ? because the animal is showing its readiness or to take it home in the horsebox - always a poor option. 
Keep your powder dry - form will settle down if the weather settles down - race horses are predictable in running best at certain times of the year - but they rely on a weather calendar more than a date time calendar.  they only know that with sun on their backs the lush pastures and daylight hours -- all gone to pot at the moment. 
Its hard to see that old guidelines are not at all reliable and a horse that travels well from the front or off the pace making good ground and running on will not repeat that next time out - but it is happening with too much regularity and for too long - really good pundits are throwing away their tickets in dispare and shaking their heads - paddock watchers are reporting more and more that horses have gone in their coats
IN  JULY!!!  
The major Punts that have gone astray is quite staggering and only one major yard seems to be pulling out the required continuity of its animals - Gosden is the king at the moment.  


Glorious Goodwood beckons - lets hope that a return to reliable form happens by then


Bob       

The Sky Bet Dash Stakes 28 July 2012

The Sky Bet Dash Stakes takes place today at York on Saturday 28th July. It’s a 6 furlong class 2 handicap for horses rated 105 or lower. The race was first run in 2004. the ground is fast and probably going to be firm for this dash 

Trends for the past 8 years:

Age

3yo: 1-0-15

4yo: 3-8-37

5yo: 2-4-26

6yo: 1-3-23

7yo+: 1-4-27

Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 6-12-78

Horses aged 6+ have a poor combined record of 2-7-50

Horses carrying 8-7 or less: 0-2-27

7 of 8 winners carried 8-12 or higher, they represented just 60% of total runners.

Horses carrying a penalty (0-2-3) have gained 2 seconds from 3 runners.

Top weight: 016420621 (2-2-8)

Recent/Past Form

7 of 8 winners finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 starts

8 of 8 winners had run at least twice that year

6 of 8 winners had won a race that season (2 exceptions finished 2nd in a h'cap worth 18K+ that season)

8 of 8 winners had run in past 40 days

7 of 8 winners had won or placed over CD (exception was having first run at York)

8 of 8 winners had won over 6F

8 of 8 winners had won a race worth 11K or more

6 of 8 winners had won a class 1 or 2 race (2 exceptions were class 3 winners who had finished 2nd in a class 2 h'cap that season)

Other Races

Totequadpot Conditions Stakes winner (Nasri): 1 (1-0-1)

New William Hill iPhone App Handicap winner (Colonel Mak): 2 (0-1-1)

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 8: 5-7-64

Horses drawn 9 or higher: 3-12-64

No strong trend on the draw, though only one winner has come from higher than stall 10.

Racing Tactics

5 of 8 winners were held up

3 of 8 chased leaders early on

Price

7 of 8 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

Only one winner has gone off bigger than 8/1.

Favourites (2-1-8) have won 2 of the previous 8 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 1.50.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 or 5

·         Carrying 8-12 or more (top weight does well)

·         Horses carrying a penalty do well

·         Officially rated 101 or higher

·         Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 runs

·         Won a race worth 11K+ this season

·         Won over 6F

·         Won or placed over CD

·         Won a class 1 or 2 race (or finished 2nd in a class 2 h’cap in 2012)

·         Ran in a sprint at Dante meeting (ideally William Birch & Sons Construction H'cap)

·         Placed in Epsom Dash, Cammidge Trophy or Scottish Stewards’ Cup

·         Trained by Richard Fahey

·         From first 4 in the betting (8/1 or shorter)

The trends will be affected by the unusual weather conditions we have encountered  and today's going has not been evident on the last run for most of them. So we have to go back further . The track has changed quite a bit and the tendency is for the sprint to come down the middle of the track - higher drawn horses who are held up and finish strongly need to be considered.

I think the  Scottish Stewards’ Cup is the best form on offer for today's contest. Grissom won that with ease off a mark of 90 ( visual form book made that a performance around the 100. hes drawn 20 today and has to buck the trends but think that's well possible - it also has to buck the trend for 6 yr old's but its speed figure that day was an amazing 68 on heavy ground - it has recorded speed figures in the mid 70s on g/frm ground over this trip. its running style is the key methinks - in that race he was held up made smooth headway  and ran on so well. 

 Colonel Mak also ran in the race and col Mak can uphold the chances of the top weights - can travel well on all sorts of ground conditions and is from the middle of the track (drawn 15)

Klynch  Fast Shot  both ran well and will perform well on this faster ground but dont really have the profile

The Joker in the pack has to be dettori mount Swiss Cross who gets in here well - and has won on fast ground and placed in the Epsom dash beaten a length but put up its best performance ever that Day

 good luck all

 Bob

Market Rasen Summer Plate 230712

 Market Rasen Summer Plate 23 july 2012 

ground is forecast to be Good (wow)

    13/13 had a top 2 finish in 1 of their last 3 starts

2              12/13 had no more than 2 previous chase hcp wins

3              12/13 had an OR of 135 and below

4              12/13 were aged between 6 & 10

5              11/13 finished in the top 2 last time out (9 won)

6              11/13 had no more than 4 chase wins

7              11/13 had previously won a chase at cl3 level or better

8              10/13 had 11 or fewer chase starts

9              9/13 ran within last 60 days

10           9/13 carried 10-13 or less to victory

11           8/13 were either a novice or a 2nd season chaser

12           need to have run in field of at leat 10 animals and won

Its animals that like to be up the front at market Rasen that take this race and there are few who are natural front runners in it today - 

My summing up of the race is that you want an animal that can run close up and mix it in a big field 

SPOCK is the first I’m happy to drop from the list. His record going right-handed compared to left-handed would be a worry for myself and even if he did manage to pull it together today and win going this way round it’s not something I would lose much sleep over. He is also the only 1 on the shortlist to have Dosage negatives against him.

STONETHROWER holds solid credentials but there is a chance he may get into a duel for the lead which would compromise his chances. He has also only won in fields if of 7 or less and I’m happy to swerve him today.

LUCKY LANDING doesn’t convince me in the jumping stakes and he also doesn’t strike me as being well handicapped of his current mark. He is another I’m happy to swerve.

TIGER O’TOOLE is not one I pass over lightly but I have a small concern over him in a large field and also over this 2m6f trip. He doesn’t strike me as one that will completely relish the extra distance and his form figures when stepping out beyond 2m4f read 0-P; he is reluctantly passed over today.

That leaves us with 3 – AL CO, THAT’LL DO & EASTLAKE – all 3 I could give chances to.

 Regular readers of this Blog will already be familiar with AL CO (P Bowen) and hopefully will have backed him on his last 2 runs. I commented way back  that Bowen could have a potentially very well handicapped chaser on his hands and that fact remains; he is only 2lbs higher than his hurdle mark and could well still have improvement in him yet. Dougie Costello has an outstanding 4 from 4 record on the horse and despite having never won on officially ‘Good’ ground he has won on faster AND softer so the underfoot conditions don’t concern me. Bowen loves targeting this race (4 winners in the past 10 renewals) and it has been in my thoughts that this race has been the long term plan/plot for AL CO. He looks likely to start as favourite but he can justify those odds and land the 3 timer.

THAT’LL DO, who will love the ground and the trip, and EASTLAKE, who has an excellent relationship with A P McCoy, can fill the places behind Peter Bowen’s runner.

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (sponsored by Betfair) takes place at Ascot on the 21st July and is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, this year’s race see’s Nathaniel attempt to become the first horse since Swain in 1998 to win back to back renewals.It was dry here overnight so the going in the straight course is GOOD and it is GOOD TO SOFT on the round 

Age

3yo: 2-2-10

4yo: 8-6-40

5yo: 0-6-24

6yo+: 0-2-11

8 of 10 winners were aged 4

Horses aged 5+ have not won the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for over 40% of the total runners.

Since 2000 there have been three 3yo winners, 2 won the Irish Derby on previous start, while other won the King Edward at Ascot on last start.

Gender

All 5 fillies/mares to run in this in past decade were unplaced (7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 14/1 & 14/1).The last female to win the race was time Charter in 1983.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in first 3 last time out (exception was only winner not to have run that season)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run between 2 and 4 times that season

8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (1 exception was making seasonal debut & other was placed on both previous starts that year)

9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions won a 1M 4F group 2 at Royal Ascot by over 3 lengths on previous start)

6 of 10 winners (last 6) had won a group 1 or 2 by 3+ lengths

10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races

That season

Hardwicke Stakes winner (Sea Moon): 15381 (2-0-5)

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Light Heavy): 1 (1-0-1)

Ormonde Stakes winner (Memphis Tennessee): 813 (1-0-3)

Yorkshire Cup winner (Red Cadeaux): 363 (0-2-3)

Dubai World Cup winner (Monterosso): 2 (0-1-1)

Highest placed Derby finisher: 355 (0-1-3)

Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 769533 (0-1-6)

4 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 4121

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time out, finishing 121

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke last time, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season

Previous season

Previous season's winner (Nathaniel): 6 (0-0-1)

Previous season's Prix Niel winner (Reliable Man): 121 (2-1-3)

Arc winner (Danedream): 312 (1-2-3)

Breeders' Cup Turf winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 41 (1-0-2)

St Leger winner (Masked Marvel): 471 (1-0-3)

Previous season's Prix Du Jockey Club winner (Reliable Man): 2 (0-1-1)

Great Voltigeur winner (Sea Moon): 27F (0-1-3)

Grosser Preis Von Baden winner (Danedream): 47 (0-0-2)

Hong Kong Vase winner (Dunaden): 504 (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Prix Niel, finishing 121

3 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 441

3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112

2 of 10 winners ran in the International Stakes at York, finishing 44

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in previous Gordon Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers

British-trained runners: 5-14-59

Irish-trained runners: 4-1-15

French-trained runners: 1-1-6

Other: 0-1-5

Michael Stoute (3-5-15) has trained the winner 3 times in the past 10 years and seen over half his 15 runners make the places.

Aidan O’Brien (2-1-12) has trained 2 of the last 5 winners, both were 4yos who had finished in first 2 in the Prix Ganay, Tatts Gold Cup and Prince Of Wales in 3 runs that season.

John Gosden (1-0-3) trained Nathaniel to win this last year & he will attempt to do it again.

Price

All 10 winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter

Favourites (6-1-10) have won 6 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 3.98 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4

·         2 to 4 runs this season (finished first 3 last time)

·         Run in last 50 days

·         Won a group 1 (or won Hardwicke or King Edward II last time)

·         Won over 1M 4F (or group 1 winner having first try at this trip)

·         Finished in first 4 in Tattersalls Gold Cup

·         Ran in Prince Of Wales or Hardwicke Stakes last time

·         Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2011

·         Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien

·         Priced shorter than 7/1