The Ayr Gold Cup Saturday 22nd September 2012

The Ayr Gold Cup, which takes place on the Saturday 22nd September, is the most valuable sprint handicap run in Europe. Run over 6 furlongs, it has been dominated in recent years by Dandy Nicholls. Horses that don’t make the cut for this run in the Silver Cup earlier on Saturday and the Bronze Cup earlier on Saturday  both races can often provide clues to the best place to be drawn. But Dont Count on it!!!!!

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-2-30

4yo: 4-7-78

5yo: 3-11-63

6yo+: 2-7-42

7yo+: 0-3-48

Horses aged between 4 and 6 have won 9 of the last 10, though that age group has represented around 70% of the total runners.

Horses aged 7 or older have not won the race since 1993 and only 3 of their 48 representatives in the last 10 years have made the frame.

Weights

Horses carrying 9-6 or over: 2-5-33

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-5: 5-15-98

Horses carrying 8-6 to 8-13: 3-8-113

Horses carrying 8-5 or less: 0-2-17

6 of the last 7 winners carried over 9-0 including a horse allotted 9-1 with a 5lb claimer. The first 4 home in past 3 years all carried 9-0 or more.

Horses carrying a penalty: 1-6-26

Top weight: 0030092003700 (0-3-13)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 101 or higher: 2-12-78

Horses rated 90 to 100: 8-17-173

Horses rated 89 or less: 0-1-10

In recent years the trend has been towards higher rated horses. The last 7 winners were all rated between 97 and 105, while 25 of 28 placed horses in the past 7 years were rated 97+.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out

9 of 10 winners had run in past 35 days

10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season

8 of 10 winners had gained no more than 1 win that season (5 hadn't won)

8 of 10 winners had won over at 6 furlongs (2 exceptions won over 7F)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better

7 of 10 winners had run in a listed or group race

8 of 10 winners had their last run at Haydock, Goodwood or Doncaster

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a race with 14+ runners in it

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Our Jonathan): 050500 (0-0-6)

Qatar Racing Handicap winner (Maarek): 834405 (0-3-6)

Symphony Group Stakes winner (Tax Free): 2 (0-1-1)

Betfair Summer Double Second Leg winner (Imperial Guest): 2 (0-1-1)

Bond Tyres Stakes winner (Sholaan): 002 (0-1-3)

Chipchase Stakes winner (Maarek): 030 (0-1-3)

Stewards Cup winner (Hawkeythenoo): 200 (0-1-3)

bet365.com Conditions Stakes winner (Alben Star): 5040 (0-1-4)

Betfred "The Bonus King" Be Friendly Handicap winner (Cheviot): 08 (0-0-2)

Bullet Sprint Stakes winner (Borderlescott): 00 (0-0-2)

Cammidge Trophy winner (The Cheka): 00 (0-0-2)

Go Racing In Kildare Handicap winner (Maarek): 90 (0-0-2)

Michael Foster Memorial Stakes winner (Justonefortheroad): 06 (0-0-2)

Portland Handicap winner (Doc Hay): 000000 (0-0-6)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 0000

4 of 10 winners ran in the Great St Wilfrid, finishing 0042

2 of 10 winners ran in Portland Handicap last time, finishing 40

2 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham Handicap, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in Buckingham Palace, finishing 18

2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Stewards Cup, finishing 40

 Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 9: 3-12-90

Horses drawn 10 to 18: 5-12-90

Horses drawn 19 or higher: 2-6-81

The winners have come from all over the track.  In 5 running's on good or firmer 4 winners came from the middle.

Price

9 of 10 winners (last 7) were priced between 10/1 and 20/1

There has been no winner priced shorter than 10/1 in last 10 years. The longest priced winner in past 10 years has been 33/1 (2004).

Favourites (0-3-11) have a shocking record in this race having failed to win any of the last 10 and only finding 3 places, level stakes loss of 10.00.

we do not have a clue what the ground will be so this is by way of an early posting - will give a summary and my thoughts nearer the day if not the day!

Bob

The kerry national 190912

There is little doubt that the market will be all over the place and is no clearer this morning- ones to note are the Old Vic Sired animals and the one that looks just about right in the profile is Questions Answered as does the mare Our Victoria - would not put you off them - they are solid contenders - Welforth has Geraghty on board which is a big plus and has won its last 2.
 My selection is the mare Our Victoria currently 23/1 exchanges she is a Solid jumper and gets the right profile as a second season chaser who did so well to finish 4th in the 4 miler at Cheltenham on ground her breeding says was too quick - she has never encountered this heavy heavy ground before and it will be right up her street 
 Bob

result ---1 Faltering Fullback 33/1
2 Questions Answered 10/1
3 Start Me Up 7/1
4 Jamsie Hall 25/1

The race was a corker and you have to take Questions Answered as an animal that would have won this doing hand stands with any greater distance of ground by the fall of the very unlucky front runner Whodoyouthink who was running a blinder and simply knuckled on landing 

Kerry National Handicap Chase 190912

Kerry National Handicap Chase takes place on Wednesday 19th September and is the highlight of the 7-day Listowel Festival. It is a 3 mile Grade A handicap chase that has been won by some useful chasers in the past, including subsequent Grand National winner, Monty’s Pass, in 2002.

 the rain was tanking down today so this is going to be a grueling contest  you are going to need a mudlark who jumps well round here and can stayyyyyyyyyyyyy

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-1

6yo: 2-1-13

7yo: 4-8-36

8yo: 3-6-46

9yo: 1-11-48

10yo+: 0-4-31

Horses aged 5 to 8: 9-15-96

Horses aged 9 or older: 1-15-79

The last 9 winners were all aged 6 to 8.

No horse aged 10 or over has won this in last 10 years from 31 runners (17.3% of total runners).

orses officially rated 135 or higher have won the last 4 renewals and filled 10 of 16 places since 2008.

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start

8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences

8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases

9 of 10 winners (last 9) were second or third season chasers

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further

7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 16K+

9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase

8 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (1 exception had never run at Listowel before)

6 of 10 winners had their previous start over hurdles

4 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Kerry National, finishing 2311

3 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 665

2 of 10 winners ran in the Topham Chase, finishing 2F

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Munster National, finishing 34

6 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival, finishing 544044

Racing Style

8 of 10 winners (last 6) settled in mid-division or tracked leaders

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1

Favourites (1-6-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00 since 2002.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 6 to 8

·         Carrying 10-10 or more

·         Officially rated 135 or higher

·         Won or placed last time out (in last 50 days)

·         Ran over hurdles last time out

·         Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases

·         Second or third season chaser

·         Gained 2 to 4 previous chase wins

·         Won over 2M 3F+

·         Won a chase worth 16K+

·         Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival

·         Finished in first 4 in a chase at 2012 Cheltenham Festival

·         First 5 in 2011 Kerry National and/or Munster National

·         Finished in first 6 in the 2012 Galway Plate

·         Trained by W Mullins, E McNamara or A J Martin

·         Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty

·         Priced between 4/1 to 10/1

Monday 17th September 2012

Great results on Saturday and to quote from Game of thrones - Winter is coming! and with that we will have some of  the best racing for ages as the National Hunt season gets underway  there are some up and coming animals that should see off the old brigade this year - cant wait really

usual monday card today but some animals that attract me mainly Blue Mimosa in the 3.35 at Listowel  under that superbe claimer Samantha Bell - this is indeed a very promising animal only had one run this year where it was given a really easy time of it - true the draw does not help today but Samantha is a very very good judge and i expect it to get a flying start and get across. This animal needs cut and even drying ground wont worry it as it should get no better than g/soft. 

The other is Geanie Mac in the 3.40 1m6f muss card bred from Needwood Blade who throws animals any ground around this staying distance its a horse i really like and its second run for this yard seems to have found the right grade for a race that 3 yr olds have excelled in over the last 10 years and she is the only three year old in it this year - 
 am sure they will both trade around the 10/1 price range and looks like an each way double for me 

 good luck all 

 Bob

well that was a rubbish selections no doubt about it !!!! 
there is one animal that I saw running yesterday that makes me think its got a future -STOLBERG 170912 bumper in atrocious ground - listowel Being ready to win first time augurs well for the future  It was a pretty professional performance as the horse made sustained progress from mid-division to challenge halfway up the straight and find a bit more inside the final furlong. He looked much more of a racehorse than the runner-up and one would imagine there will be plenty more to come. Towards rear, progress from 3f out to go 6th approaching straight, switched left and challenged before final furlong, led far side final 150yds, kept on well 25/1 betfair 16/1 Sp 

The Portland 150912

This is always a cavalry charge and it pays to stick with hold up animals as they burn themselves out in front - the draw assists the higher stalls (drawn 13 or higher have won 7 of last 9 running's at Doncaster.)

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 5 or older

·         Carrying 8-12 to 9-6

·         Officially rated 94 to 101

·         Run at least 3 times in 2011

·         Won or placed last time (or unplaced in Great St Wilfrid)

·         Ran in last 35 days in a class 3 or better

·         Won at class 2 level or higher

·         Won over 5F and 6F

·         Won a handicap with 14+ runners

·         Previously contested a group sprint

·         Ran in the Great St Wilfrid and/or Stewards Cup/Sprint

·         Ran in Al Rayan H’cap, Scottish Stewards Cup and/or Epsom Dash

·         Drawn in 13 or higher

·         Hold-up horses favoured

·         Priced between 11/1 and 20/1

 The ground is drying all the time and you can expect it to be good to firm by race time 

of the holdup fast finishers 5+ you can include Doc Hayes and Ancient Cross  - (Face The Problem is a good hold up horse aged 4) all well drawn high and all within the weight range  Kingsgate Choice also has the credentials but its low drawn 1 makes it difficult - and as there is no earlier 5fngs it wont be as helpful to see how significant it will be Bajan Tryst was a fast finishing horse in the stewards cup and has lee on board (won on him before)

Picabo from the candy yard is a trail blazer who has improved with every race on g/frm ground - has made all over 6lngs and though up 9lbs from his last blistering run in a really good race i still make this one 4lbs well in - well drawn and has improved every run with the hood . well drawn has the pace for 6flngs and will be able to stay on 

this is an each way race for me and the style of Doc Hay  its staying on ability and recent form says its way overpriced at 25/1 currently 

Triple Crown 2012 St Leger

Was just a kid of  31 years when I saw Nijinsky win the st Leger -looking back all those years  I can still feel the excitement having watched that great horse win the derby so easily. 

Down the same years  this race has held me in thrall - all the greatest jockeys have watched  and animals bursting their lungs to get the extra 2flngs has been my greatest thrill and led to my love of endurance racing.

For an animal to be able to win at a mile then 1m4f and then the 1m6f in the same year in the biggest blue ribbon races is something that transcends betting - record this race and watch it over and over again - go to Youtube and watch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfSLvlDzhkc .

I of course want Camelot to win   no ifs no buts I want it to win  -

 Races that have proven to be worthy of study coming into this have been

Great Voltigeur winner (Thought Worthy): 3151363 (2-3-7) (Main Sequence 2nd)

Fairway Stakes winner (Thought Worthy): 31 (1-1-2)

Racing Post Trophy winner (Camelot): 1 (1-0-1)

Cocked Hat Stakes winner (Michelangelo): 061 (1-0-3)

Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Main Sequence): 340 (0-1-3)

Irish Derby winner (Camelot): 7 (0-0-1)

5 of 10 winners ran in Great Voltigeur last time, finishing 32112

3 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Stakes last time, finishing 113

5 of 10 winners ran in the Derby, finishing 02748 Main Sequence 

3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Derby, finishing 442

2 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 22 

These could be the key to the places for the race - the interesting side for you to contemplate is the jocks record of winning over the distance - Frankie Dettori  is head and shoulders above them all with a 24% strike rate over the last 5 years - hes on MichaelAngelo  for Gosden's (Thought Worthy Slight drift this morning) Michaelangelo is currently solid at 12s its form shouts that it is every bit as good as Though Worthy and is in here on merit - Gosden has had this race s its target since june!!!  They both have the assistance of a pacemaker from the yard .

You should not discount Main Sequence when looking at the race his second in the derby was a staying on ride and a massive troubld 4th in the Grand Prix De Paris - a lengthy inquiry - it´s possible that with a clear run he´d have been second at best, (but probably third.) 

So all you youngsters who have not quite realized how big a deal this race is - watch and get hooked on what I consider to be the very essence of the medieval sport of horse racing man and beast endurance and skill -

 Bob 

wait for it! 030912

What a feast of racing yesterday

"Forget form" is well illustrated by the racing at newton abbot - take the 3.10   A valuable hurdle in which those who led or were close up early mainly finished out the back. Pipe had four entries  and won it with PREMIER DANE who maintained his unbeaten record since joining David Pipe, winning comfortably after Tony McCoy managed to get away from the field on turning in. The further the gelding went, the better he looked, and the jockey reported that the horse might go to the Kerry National next.

This horse had only run on soft ground twice (dismally) in fact had performed miserably on ground any softer than good and its optimum distance was 2flngs shorter, at 10years old was the outsider of his four animals .

Tony McCoy,said of Premier Dane:"The pace was slow, so I kicked on after three out - I knew I wouldn't get into trouble from the Pipe family for going to the front! They are thinking about the Kerry National, which may be a good race for him." - Before the race Pipe was interviewed on TV and talked up three of his runners but not this one! I take him to be one of the honest trainers who would not talk down a horse chances and believe he was as astonished as anyone else with the win. 

The animal opened at 9/1 and drifted out to 14/1 - his well favored Ashbrittle finished well behind in third having been backed from 7/2 down to 2/1 favorite 

The flat at Folkstone gave me two winners and that was purely on the basis of the parade looks and a quick look at the form book posted them as I saw them on twitter - my early selections at newton Abbot are not worthy of discussion apart from the bumper and would say to use whatever notebook you have To note Bluegrass Bid taken as my selection with the favorite Too Generous - Bluegrass looked magnificent and calm in the paddock watch and though american bred's are not noted for soft ground it was punted from an early 13s betfair down to 5s. It was ridden for a late finish and in my mind given too much to do such was Richard Johnson's confidence. better ground and that run under its belt will be a winner no doubt about it .

Good luck if your punting today - will be on twitter later for anything I think is a stand out in the parade's  @roberttaylor03

from twitter - My only Paddock pick today  13s betfair (returned 9/1 Sp)

robert taylor ‏@roberttaylor03

Btl Spic and Span who looks really well turned out ffos lass

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raymond charles ‏@notaclueray67
@roberttaylor03 think its got snotted pal

notaclueray67 @roberttaylor03 oooh i dunno!!

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@roberttaylor03 yep... well done fella...laser eye treatment needed!! 

robert taylor ‏@roberttaylor03

@notaclueray67 I thenk You Gettttttttttttttttttttt innnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

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Newton Abbot Sunday 020912

Its winter ground at newton ! heavy in September and results will hard to predict. The water jump on the bottom bend will be omitted but everything else will be jumped."

its a lazy Sunday morning so am going through the cards looking for springer's in the market.
 1.40 Tom O'Brien on Fashion Faux Pas really does hold a chance of improvement - bred for soft/heavy ground well beaten second to Patsy Cline over 2m6f read well in this contest dropped back in trip and trying the ground for the first time - I expect it to be punted if right! 14/1 is too big 
 Frost horse Winning Note - french bred is out with the washing at 33/1 at time of writing but will love these conditions on its sire statistics  ran a race full of promise here over an obviously inadequate trip of 2m1f  doing its best work at the end of the race staying on well  this forecast ground will help as will the extra 2 furlongs  - 

American Legend has McCoy on board first time and looks an obvious stayer bred from Presenting will handle the ground well  has been running in conditionals and stayed off the pace only getting the idea late at Uttoxeter (3rd) well clear of the rest on soft ground.
   
- so to the shorter priced animals Cabimas currently second fav will love the ground and the extra distance - beaten by Ahyouknowyourself over 2miles heavy.  was doing its best work at the end of the race.

2.10 Nightmare race should be left alone - will watch for a possible in running only on DandyVic on breeding for this ground but its gotta be punted by the pipe yard below its current 12/1 Nothing in the race  screams winner including the top two in the betting!

2.40 forget it!

3.10 a decent enough staying handicap-Decoy needs to front run  and surely they will not bust a gut with Ashbrittle who is entered for the Ebor 
am all for Southway Star (wish Nolan was on it!)  has been campaigned over 2m4f and was heavily eased winning at Uttoxeter on atrocious ground  (cannot find any ride Johnson /Gardner combination!)  its by far the best rating has been obtained this ground and Johnson is only 3lbs above his lowest riding weight ever  - yes the animal has 25lbs rise in its weights this term but that is all about improvement she goes through bad ground particularly well 12/1 is way to big  

3.40 hard to sum up this one - Nobunaga will be interesting to me if punted from the Venetia  Williams yard (tends to sweat up before its races and have been put off by that in the past - still won well so will discount if happens today) its going to be a long way home and has a touch of staying on the dam side - related to Cinders and Ashes  and all ground seems to come alike - but with the distance today it falls into my Btl betting guide.

4.10  really cannot say anything about these they all look pretty poor bets either for ground or distance

4.40 bumper and you cant get past how good Phillips is as a bumper trainer - Bluegrass Bid  has been entered and withdrawn so many times it bewildering - ( has been withdrawn with going soft in the past!)  Too Generous is un- penalized 

5.10 Skippers lad for Tizzard has some appeal at 5/1 

 Good luck today enjoy the racing

 Bob

2.15 Sandown: Catfish 9/1 - Eased considerably LTO. Also ran a cracker at Epsom to finish 3rd just over one length from the winner. This looks like a much weaker race than the one at Epsom. Should go very close today. I am going win bet only as quite confident but E/W value is there.

Going to have an E/W Saver on Solemn 20/1. Not convincing of late but could spring a suprise today

3:05 Chester: Powerful Prescence 20/1 E/W. Has a high draw today but looking at the statistics lots of winners have come from high draws. Handicap mark not so good, but overpriced.

3:40 Chester: Dutching this race Mandy Layla win @ 4/1 and All on Red @ 11/1

5:35 Sandown: Nelson Bay e/w @ 7/1



4:45 - Snowed In. Place Lay @ Evens. Dont think this horse will stay the distance.


Good Luck Bob, thought I would share some thoughts.

absolute rubbish selections! July/August 2012

I cannot believe how bad the selections am putting up are faring - this has been a dismal month for me and only last minute parade inspections have proved to be of any worth - have looked back over the last 5 years accounts and find that though July and August have been lull times they have NEVER been this bad.
yesterday the ground simply went to pieces between morning and race time - with only forecast showers  that turned into deluge - already sodden ground simply chopped up and horses that have had hard times on sour ground did not perform at all -  

Today's racing is as poor and I simply cannot find an angle that will help me tweak the systems so am off to walk the dawgs take in some fresh air and wait for September before kissing any more money goodbye on the Gee Gee's 
  
 best of luck if your still gonna take the bookie on 

 Bob

Dark Horse 4.55 Huntington

Interesting if money comes for the Debutante hurdler Harting Hill 314 dsr today in the 4.55 very well bred from Muhjahid ( and related to khyber kim ) out of a king of Spain mare-  ran a cracker fresh on the flat 313 dsr currently 25/1 Huntington not a greatly known trainer and Kennedy not ridden this track much but be alert to a gamble.
 Bob
 update have taken a price of 46s and now into 26s betfair this should be a decent trade

three on the radar 270812 Nag me horses

	15:25 Bangor	Dipity Doo Dah (GB)	8	47/2232	7/2 (early)
	Dipity Doo Dah (GB) |Note Created: 11 May 2012 | 14:32  what a great run at market rasen after a layoff 11may12 follow traveled best swinger off bridle  today is wearing blinks and a horse that only does so much when getting the lead  has worn visor/cheek pieces before
	14:35 Huntingdon	Arkaim (GB)	4	464	7/1 (early)
	Arkaim (GB) | Note Created: 3 Jul 2012 | 18:16  ran a nice sort of race at Stratford 030712 30/1 and went into 17 but no shorter 2miles was given a very educational ride and the one to take out of the race watch when it starts much lower than this price.   Today - so far has has shown very little but the market opening at 6/1 says something in its first handicap and ridden by Timmy Murphy settled much better last time  and this mark was well below what its capable of
	17:10 Newcastle	Boss's Destination (GB)	5	216778	9/1 (early)
	Boss's Destination (GB) |   Note Created: 27 Mar 2012 | 16:24  what a good horse this one is fantastic run photo at southwell 1m6f beatn by a nose bds american bred and such a good bet at 14s   Today has a hood on for the first time has a rise of only 2lbs over its last win and has won 2miles to a mark of 7lbs higher and is myBTl today