The Coral Welsh National takes place today at Chepstow It is grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, on its usual soft/ heavy ground, and it represents a serious test of any horse’s stamina.
trends for the last 10 years:
Age (for age purposes we’ll assume 2010-11 renewal was run in 2010)
8yo: 2-8-43
9yo: 2-7-37
10yo: 0-3-30
11yo+: 0-0-10
10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9
Horses aged 10+ have a very poor record having failed to win a single renewal in the past 10 years and gaining just 3 places from 40 runners. its got the better class of runners this year but past stats say no on first look
Breeding
French bred: 5-10-40
Irish bred: 4-13-94
GB bred: 1-6-39
USA bred: 0-0-4
In past 7 years French breds have filled 14 of 28 places from less than 26% of the total runners
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-13-58
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-16-119
No strong trend on weights, though higher weights have held a slight edge recently with 4 of last 6 winners carrying 10-8+
Top weight: FP2PF3P2377F (0-4-12)
Of 12 horses carrying a penalty that were racing from inside the handicap, 9 finished in the first 5
Official Ratings
Horses rated 142 or higher: 4-8-43
Horses rated 141 or lower: 2-10-69
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
9 of 10 winners has run once or twice that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M or further
7 of 10 winners had won at Chepstow before (3 exceptions having first course start)
8 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more that 2 handicap chases prior to this
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exceptions were 4th season chasers)
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a listed/graded chase (exception had yet to run in a graded chase but won Becher Chase on last run)
great stat >>>>5 of last 6 winners ran in a 3M-3M1F handicap hurdle on 1 of previous 2 runs Michele le Bon(Fr) (10) and Viking Blonde (Fr)(8)
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners (last 7) raced prominently or in midfield
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
Dream Alliance at 20/1 was the longest priced winner in the past 10 years.
The favourite (1-4-11) has won just 1 of last 10 & shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9
- French bred horses do well
- Officially rated 142 or higher
- Horses carrying a penalty also do well
- Finished in the first 4 last time out in past 55 days
- Had 1 or 2 runs this season
- Ran in a handicap hurdle over 3M+ this season
- Course winner (or having first course start)
- Won over 3M or further
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
- Won or placed in a graded chase over 3M+
- Second or third season chaser
- Finished in first 4 in Midlands National and/or Haydock GN Trial
- First 6 in a Grand National, Hennessy Gold Cup or 4M NH Chase
- Trained by P Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill, A King or N Twiston-Davies
- Tends to race prominently
Soooooooooooo you have to look to Viking blonde as a place animal for sure at 8 this french bred fills so many of the trends - right age right preparation is a really high class staying animal who as yet has not produced the good on this sort of surface over fences but certainly has won round here on heavy ground over hdles gets in here on a mark 5lbs below what i make his last performance at cheltenham 3m3f soft and a staying on performance behind Monbeg Dude and in front of Teaforthree and Mon Mom
though I am always concerned that Hutchinson cannot really ride a finish since his horrific accident - the chances of the novice Universal Soldier crys out for attention and is a leading stats animal and will carry a few quidlets as does my old warrior Master Overseer
