the form is always suspect but more so at the moment

To be honest this is the worst time in memory for following current form for animals - its more than ever a problem of the weather and ground conditions with horses running "well" on unsuitable ground and finding a repeat performance beyond them on more suitable ground in their next race. Trainers have had massive problems with their gallops - turning up at abandoned meetings - turning up for meetings that suddenly deteriorate withing the space of a couple of hours. To Run anyway ? because the animal is showing its readiness or to take it home in the horsebox - always a poor option. 
Keep your powder dry - form will settle down if the weather settles down - race horses are predictable in running best at certain times of the year - but they rely on a weather calendar more than a date time calendar.  they only know that with sun on their backs the lush pastures and daylight hours -- all gone to pot at the moment. 
Its hard to see that old guidelines are not at all reliable and a horse that travels well from the front or off the pace making good ground and running on will not repeat that next time out - but it is happening with too much regularity and for too long - really good pundits are throwing away their tickets in dispare and shaking their heads - paddock watchers are reporting more and more that horses have gone in their coats
IN  JULY!!!  
The major Punts that have gone astray is quite staggering and only one major yard seems to be pulling out the required continuity of its animals - Gosden is the king at the moment.  


Glorious Goodwood beckons - lets hope that a return to reliable form happens by then


Bob       

The Sky Bet Dash Stakes 28 July 2012

The Sky Bet Dash Stakes takes place today at York on Saturday 28th July. It’s a 6 furlong class 2 handicap for horses rated 105 or lower. The race was first run in 2004. the ground is fast and probably going to be firm for this dash 

Trends for the past 8 years:

Age

3yo: 1-0-15

4yo: 3-8-37

5yo: 2-4-26

6yo: 1-3-23

7yo+: 1-4-27

Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 6-12-78

Horses aged 6+ have a poor combined record of 2-7-50

Horses carrying 8-7 or less: 0-2-27

7 of 8 winners carried 8-12 or higher, they represented just 60% of total runners.

Horses carrying a penalty (0-2-3) have gained 2 seconds from 3 runners.

Top weight: 016420621 (2-2-8)

Recent/Past Form

7 of 8 winners finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 starts

8 of 8 winners had run at least twice that year

6 of 8 winners had won a race that season (2 exceptions finished 2nd in a h'cap worth 18K+ that season)

8 of 8 winners had run in past 40 days

7 of 8 winners had won or placed over CD (exception was having first run at York)

8 of 8 winners had won over 6F

8 of 8 winners had won a race worth 11K or more

6 of 8 winners had won a class 1 or 2 race (2 exceptions were class 3 winners who had finished 2nd in a class 2 h'cap that season)

Other Races

Totequadpot Conditions Stakes winner (Nasri): 1 (1-0-1)

New William Hill iPhone App Handicap winner (Colonel Mak): 2 (0-1-1)

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 8: 5-7-64

Horses drawn 9 or higher: 3-12-64

No strong trend on the draw, though only one winner has come from higher than stall 10.

Racing Tactics

5 of 8 winners were held up

3 of 8 chased leaders early on

Price

7 of 8 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

Only one winner has gone off bigger than 8/1.

Favourites (2-1-8) have won 2 of the previous 8 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 1.50.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 or 5

·         Carrying 8-12 or more (top weight does well)

·         Horses carrying a penalty do well

·         Officially rated 101 or higher

·         Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 runs

·         Won a race worth 11K+ this season

·         Won over 6F

·         Won or placed over CD

·         Won a class 1 or 2 race (or finished 2nd in a class 2 h’cap in 2012)

·         Ran in a sprint at Dante meeting (ideally William Birch & Sons Construction H'cap)

·         Placed in Epsom Dash, Cammidge Trophy or Scottish Stewards’ Cup

·         Trained by Richard Fahey

·         From first 4 in the betting (8/1 or shorter)

The trends will be affected by the unusual weather conditions we have encountered  and today's going has not been evident on the last run for most of them. So we have to go back further . The track has changed quite a bit and the tendency is for the sprint to come down the middle of the track - higher drawn horses who are held up and finish strongly need to be considered.

I think the  Scottish Stewards’ Cup is the best form on offer for today's contest. Grissom won that with ease off a mark of 90 ( visual form book made that a performance around the 100. hes drawn 20 today and has to buck the trends but think that's well possible - it also has to buck the trend for 6 yr old's but its speed figure that day was an amazing 68 on heavy ground - it has recorded speed figures in the mid 70s on g/frm ground over this trip. its running style is the key methinks - in that race he was held up made smooth headway  and ran on so well. 

 Colonel Mak also ran in the race and col Mak can uphold the chances of the top weights - can travel well on all sorts of ground conditions and is from the middle of the track (drawn 15)

Klynch  Fast Shot  both ran well and will perform well on this faster ground but dont really have the profile

The Joker in the pack has to be dettori mount Swiss Cross who gets in here well - and has won on fast ground and placed in the Epsom dash beaten a length but put up its best performance ever that Day

 good luck all

 Bob

Market Rasen Summer Plate 230712

 Market Rasen Summer Plate 23 july 2012 

ground is forecast to be Good (wow)

    13/13 had a top 2 finish in 1 of their last 3 starts

2              12/13 had no more than 2 previous chase hcp wins

3              12/13 had an OR of 135 and below

4              12/13 were aged between 6 & 10

5              11/13 finished in the top 2 last time out (9 won)

6              11/13 had no more than 4 chase wins

7              11/13 had previously won a chase at cl3 level or better

8              10/13 had 11 or fewer chase starts

9              9/13 ran within last 60 days

10           9/13 carried 10-13 or less to victory

11           8/13 were either a novice or a 2nd season chaser

12           need to have run in field of at leat 10 animals and won

Its animals that like to be up the front at market Rasen that take this race and there are few who are natural front runners in it today - 

My summing up of the race is that you want an animal that can run close up and mix it in a big field 

SPOCK is the first I’m happy to drop from the list. His record going right-handed compared to left-handed would be a worry for myself and even if he did manage to pull it together today and win going this way round it’s not something I would lose much sleep over. He is also the only 1 on the shortlist to have Dosage negatives against him.

STONETHROWER holds solid credentials but there is a chance he may get into a duel for the lead which would compromise his chances. He has also only won in fields if of 7 or less and I’m happy to swerve him today.

LUCKY LANDING doesn’t convince me in the jumping stakes and he also doesn’t strike me as being well handicapped of his current mark. He is another I’m happy to swerve.

TIGER O’TOOLE is not one I pass over lightly but I have a small concern over him in a large field and also over this 2m6f trip. He doesn’t strike me as one that will completely relish the extra distance and his form figures when stepping out beyond 2m4f read 0-P; he is reluctantly passed over today.

That leaves us with 3 – AL CO, THAT’LL DO & EASTLAKE – all 3 I could give chances to.

 Regular readers of this Blog will already be familiar with AL CO (P Bowen) and hopefully will have backed him on his last 2 runs. I commented way back  that Bowen could have a potentially very well handicapped chaser on his hands and that fact remains; he is only 2lbs higher than his hurdle mark and could well still have improvement in him yet. Dougie Costello has an outstanding 4 from 4 record on the horse and despite having never won on officially ‘Good’ ground he has won on faster AND softer so the underfoot conditions don’t concern me. Bowen loves targeting this race (4 winners in the past 10 renewals) and it has been in my thoughts that this race has been the long term plan/plot for AL CO. He looks likely to start as favourite but he can justify those odds and land the 3 timer.

THAT’LL DO, who will love the ground and the trip, and EASTLAKE, who has an excellent relationship with A P McCoy, can fill the places behind Peter Bowen’s runner.

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (sponsored by Betfair) takes place at Ascot on the 21st July and is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, this year’s race see’s Nathaniel attempt to become the first horse since Swain in 1998 to win back to back renewals.It was dry here overnight so the going in the straight course is GOOD and it is GOOD TO SOFT on the round 

Age

3yo: 2-2-10

4yo: 8-6-40

5yo: 0-6-24

6yo+: 0-2-11

8 of 10 winners were aged 4

Horses aged 5+ have not won the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for over 40% of the total runners.

Since 2000 there have been three 3yo winners, 2 won the Irish Derby on previous start, while other won the King Edward at Ascot on last start.

Gender

All 5 fillies/mares to run in this in past decade were unplaced (7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 14/1 & 14/1).The last female to win the race was time Charter in 1983.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in first 3 last time out (exception was only winner not to have run that season)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run between 2 and 4 times that season

8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (1 exception was making seasonal debut & other was placed on both previous starts that year)

9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions won a 1M 4F group 2 at Royal Ascot by over 3 lengths on previous start)

6 of 10 winners (last 6) had won a group 1 or 2 by 3+ lengths

10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races

That season

Hardwicke Stakes winner (Sea Moon): 15381 (2-0-5)

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Light Heavy): 1 (1-0-1)

Ormonde Stakes winner (Memphis Tennessee): 813 (1-0-3)

Yorkshire Cup winner (Red Cadeaux): 363 (0-2-3)

Dubai World Cup winner (Monterosso): 2 (0-1-1)

Highest placed Derby finisher: 355 (0-1-3)

Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 769533 (0-1-6)

4 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 4121

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time out, finishing 121

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke last time, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season

Previous season

Previous season's winner (Nathaniel): 6 (0-0-1)

Previous season's Prix Niel winner (Reliable Man): 121 (2-1-3)

Arc winner (Danedream): 312 (1-2-3)

Breeders' Cup Turf winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 41 (1-0-2)

St Leger winner (Masked Marvel): 471 (1-0-3)

Previous season's Prix Du Jockey Club winner (Reliable Man): 2 (0-1-1)

Great Voltigeur winner (Sea Moon): 27F (0-1-3)

Grosser Preis Von Baden winner (Danedream): 47 (0-0-2)

Hong Kong Vase winner (Dunaden): 504 (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Prix Niel, finishing 121

3 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 441

3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112

2 of 10 winners ran in the International Stakes at York, finishing 44

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in previous Gordon Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers

British-trained runners: 5-14-59

Irish-trained runners: 4-1-15

French-trained runners: 1-1-6

Other: 0-1-5

Michael Stoute (3-5-15) has trained the winner 3 times in the past 10 years and seen over half his 15 runners make the places.

Aidan O’Brien (2-1-12) has trained 2 of the last 5 winners, both were 4yos who had finished in first 2 in the Prix Ganay, Tatts Gold Cup and Prince Of Wales in 3 runs that season.

John Gosden (1-0-3) trained Nathaniel to win this last year & he will attempt to do it again.

Price

All 10 winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter

Favourites (6-1-10) have won 6 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 3.98 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4

·         2 to 4 runs this season (finished first 3 last time)

·         Run in last 50 days

·         Won a group 1 (or won Hardwicke or King Edward II last time)

·         Won over 1M 4F (or group 1 winner having first try at this trip)

·         Finished in first 4 in Tattersalls Gold Cup

·         Ran in Prince Of Wales or Hardwicke Stakes last time

·         Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2011

·         Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien

·         Priced shorter than 7/1

International Stakes 23 July Ascot

The Betfair Summer Double International Stakes is a 7F class 2 handicap which takes place at Ascot on Saturday, 23rd July, on the supporting card of the King George. Trends point towards 4yos that are still improving and ran well at Royal Ascot. It was dry  overnight so the going in the straight course is GOOD and it is GOOD TO SOFT on the round 

Big Field Form

9 of 10 winners had won a race with 12+ runners (exception placed in 28-runner Wokingham on previous start)

All 10 winners won or placed in a race with 15+ runners, clearly this is a race where you want a horse that has experienced and run well in a competitive big-field handicap.

Weight

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-8

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-7-46

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-9-74

Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 4-11-101

Top Weight: 00320081030 (1-3-11)

Horses carrying a penalty: 00904005009541020400003 (1-5-23)

Horses carrying a penalty priced 12/1 or shorter: 0405095412403 (1-5-13)

6 of the 13 penalised runners that were sent off 12/1 or shorter made the places (with a further two finishing 5th)

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at Newbury)

Horses drawn 1-10: 4-7-90

Horses drawn 11-20: 3-13-90

Horses drawn 21 or higher: 2-6-28

There is no significant draw bias.

Price

No strong trends on prices though last 4 winners have gone off at healthy odds of 18/1, 40/1, 14/1 & 16/1.

Favourites (0-2-13) have failed to win any of the last 10 runnings and only 2 of the 13 (joint) favourites have made the places, level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 3 or 4 (especially 4yos)

·         Had 3 to 5 turf starts in 2012

·         Ran in a class 2 or 3 handicap in past 40 days

·         Posted highest RPR in last 3 runs

·         Won a race this season (or placed in a race worth 40K+)

·         Won over 7F

·         Won at class 3 level or higher

·         Placed in a class 1 or 2 race

·         Won a handicap with 12+ runners

·         Ran in a handicap at Royal Ascot (ideally Buckingham Palace or Royal Hunt Cup)

·         Ran in Victoria and/or Bunbury Cup this season

Why I am not punting at the moment! 160712

We have the standard 6 ft. fence back gaden, and a few months ago, I heard about burglaries increasing dramatically in our area. To make sure this never happened to me, I got an electric fence and ran a single wire along the top of the fence.

Actually, I got the biggest cattle charger  made for 26 miles of fence. I then used an 8 ft. long ground rod, and drove it 7.5 ft. into the ground. The ground rod is the key, with the more you have in the ground, the better the fence works.

One day I'm mowing the back yard with my cheapo petrol engine  big wheel push mower. The hot wire is broken and laying out in the yard. I knew for a fact that I unplugged the charger. I pushed the mower around the wire and reached down to grab it, to throw it out of the way.

It seems as though I hadn't remembered to unplug it after all.

Now I'm standing there, I've got the running lawnmower in my right hand and the 1.7 giga-volt fence wire in the other hand. (Keep in mind the charger is about the size of a marine battery and has a picture of an upside down cow on fire on the cover.)

Time stood still.

The first thing I notice is my cock trying to climb up the front side of my body. My ears curled downwards and I could feel the lawnmower ignition firing in the backside of my brain. I could feel the spark in my head. I was literally at one with the engine.

It seems as though the fence charger and the piece of crap lawnmower were fighting over who would control my electrical impulses.

Science says you cannot crap, pee, and vomit at the same time. I beg to differ. Not only did I do all three at once, but my bowels emptied 3 different times in less than half of a second. It was a Matrix kind of bowel movement, where time is creeping along and you're all leaned back and BAM BAM BAM you just crap your pants 3 times. It seemed like there were minutes in between but in reality it was so close together.

At this point I feel i am about 30 minutes (maybe 2 seconds) into holding onto the fence wire. My hand is wrapped around the wire palm down so I can't let go. The 8 ft. long ground rod is now accepting signals from me through the damp soil. At this point I'm thinking I'm going to have to just man up and take it, until the lawnmower runs out of petrol.

'Damn!,' I think, as I remember I just filled the tank!

Now the lawnmower is starting to run rough. It has settled into a loping run pattern as if it had some kind of big lawnmower race cam in it. Covered in poop, pee, and with my vomit on my chest, I think 'Oh God please die... Pleeeeaze die'. But nooooo, it settles into the rough lumpy cam idle nicely and remains there,motor waiting for the go command from its owner's right foot.

So here I am in the middle of July, as it starts to pour (unusual that)  standing in my own garden, begging God to kill me. God did not take me that day. He left me there covered in my own fluids to writhe in the misery my own stupidity had created.

I honestly don't know how I got loose from the wire.

I woke up laying on the ground hours later. The lawnmower was beside me, out of petrol.

There were two large dead grass spots where I had been standing, and then another long skinny dead spot where the wire had laid while I was on the ground still holding on to it. I assume I finally passed out and in the resulting thrashing had somehow let go of the wire.

Upon waking from my electrically-induced sleep, I realized a few things:

1 - Three of the fillings in my teeth are missing.

2 - I now have cramps in the bottoms of my feet and my right butt cheek (not the left, just the right).

3 - Poop, pee, and vomit when all mixed together, do not smell as bad as you might think.

4 - My left eye will not open.

5 - My right eye will not close.

6 - The lawnmower runs like a turbo now. Seriously! I think our little session cleared out some carbon fouling or something, because it was better than new after that.

7 - My nuts are still smaller than average, yet they are almost a foot long.

8 - I can turn on the TV in the game room by farting while thinking of the number 4 (still don't understand this??).

That day changed my life. I now have a newfound respect for things. I appreciate the little things more, and now I always triple check to make sure the fence is unplugged before I mow.

The good news is that if a burglar does try to come over the fence, I can clearly visualize what my security system will do to him, and THAT gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling all over,

which also reminds me to triple check before I mow. My nuts hurt sooooooooooooo bad!

My Darling Wife – cant stop giggling - I guess its shock.

The Coral Eclipse Stakes 070712

The Coral Eclipse Stakes takes place today Sandown, 7th July. A group 1 run over 1M 2F, it is the first chance for the classic generation to take on the older horses at the highest level, In recent years there have not been many takers from the 3yo ranks. Racing has taken a body blow because of the appalling weather and ground conditions and the top horses from this year have been withdrawn  

The trends for the past 10 years: 

Age

3yo: 3-4-24 Bonfire and Cogito

4yo: 3-9-31 Farhh (supplemented and that was when the defections were starting to happen!)  Nathaniel  and  Crackerjack king

5yo: 4-2-21 Monterso

6yo+: 0-1-7 Sri Putra City Style Cityscape Twice Over (who won this race in 2010 and is the only CDG winner in the line up)

No strong trends on age, though this race has not been won by horse aged over 5 in past 100 years. (to be fair they did not have entries until 1965 ) but that is still 47 years! and the way this race has cut up it could be due for a statistical change 

All three 3yo winners were trained in Ireland & finished in first 4 in the 2000 Guineas.

All seven older winners ran at Royal Ascot last time.

Gender

Mares (0-0-5) have failed to fill a single place despite 3 of their 5 representatives in this being sent off shorter than 5/1. That’s only interesting –as there are no Fem’s entered!

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners achieved career highest RPR in last 3 starts

10 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season

10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days

6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (2 of 4 exceptions were 3yos)

10 of 10 winners had won a group 1

9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a group 1 this year

7 of 10 winners were having first course start (2 others were CD winners)

2 of 3 winners aged 3 had won a group 1 as a 2yo (exception had won a group 2 and not contested a group 1 as a juvenile)

Other Races

Previous year's highest finisher to return: 4113 (2-0-4)

Previous year's Juddmonte Int'l winner (Twice Over): 21 (1-1-2)

Dubai Duty Free winner (Cityscape): 1 (1-0-1)

Dante Stakes winner (Bonfire): 22 (0-2-2) 

Premio Presidente Della Repubblica winner (Crackerjack King): 3 (0-0-1)

Previous year's Italian Derby winner (Crackerjack King): 4 (0-0-1)

5 of 10 winners ran in Prince of Wales Stakes last time, finishing 54322

2 of 10 winners ran in Queen Anne Stakes last time, finishing 15

4 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing 1801

3 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 241

3 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 201

2 of 10 winners ran in Mooresbridge Stakes, finishing 61

2 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Dubai Duty Free, finishing 81

7 of 7 winners aged 4+ finished in first 5 in Prince of Wales or Queen Anne Stakes last time

3 of 3 winners aged 3 finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas & finished in the first 3 in the Derby or St James’ Palace last time

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (4-3-17) has trained the winner 4 times in the past 10 years .BUT HAS NO RUNNER TODAY

Brian Meehan (1-1-3) and Henry Cecil (1-1-4) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 10 runnings.

Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-7) has also trained the winner since 2002.

Price

10 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting

Only one winner in the past decade was sent off greater than 8/1.

Favourites (4-4-10) have supplied the last 3 winners however they show a level stakes loss of 0.61 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Male aged 3 that finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas & Derby or

·         Males aged 4 or 5 that finished first 5 at Royal Ascot last time

·         Had 2 to 4 runs this season

·         Run in last 30 days

·         Achieved highest RPR in last 3 starts

·         Had won a group 1

·         Finished in first 2 in a group 1 in 2012

·         Finished in first 5 in Queen Anne, Prince Of Wales or Derby last time

·         From first 4 in the betting

Cityscape  had a howler of a race last time at Sha Tin 6^th of May  starting off odds on  had surprised most people with a facile success in the Duty Free, He had a favourable trip that day, which certainly wasn´t the case here. Slowly away, he got caught on the heels of Fair Trade when trying to make his run and when out in the clear was never going to be able to pick up the front five. He´s a solid Group 1 performer without being the superstar many hailed him as after Meydan. But he loves this track and to be honest you can forgive him his last run and remembering his 2 and a half lengths second to Dick Turpin who was in its pomp over a miles here on good ground   Held up last early, he was switched to the wide outside 2f out and eyeballed the favourite for a few strides, but the winner then produced another gear. There is no doubt Cityscape is up to this class, not least when he gets today’s easier conditions.  Against him is the age stat - for him is the ground and the defection of the classier 3 and 4 yr olds. Roger Charlton yard is firing on all cylinders with 5 winners and 1placed from 10 runners he has stayed 1m1f very well. Can he stay 1m2f with the Hill to contend with? I think he will with the g/soft ground in his favor. 

 Bonfire won the Dante in a very fast time on g/soft and this is his trip on breeding- is it his track? Had little to find with Camelot in the Derby but had a hard race in the Dante and was never going to stay 1m4f and was found wanting for stamina. He didn´t handle the track either and will appreciate dropping back to 1m2f the worry is Sandown Hill for this one in a fast run race.

those two will do for me today

 Bob