The Betfred Monet´s Garden Old Roan Chase is a grade 2 handicap chase run over 2M 4F. at Aintree today at 3.05 The Ryanair and Melling Chases have proven the best guides to this race.
2012: (11 ran) For Non Stop, Age 7, Wgt 10 - 11, SP 4/1 - N Fehily / Nick Williams had won the Scilly isle chase at newbury - had finished in the frame every jumps (apart from one fall on first chase as a novice at evens favourite had not run for 225 days prior to this race
2012: (11 ran) For Non Stop, Age 7, Wgt 10 - 11, SP 4/1 - N Fehily / Nick Williams had won the Scilly isle chase at newbury - had finished in the frame every jumps (apart from one fall on first chase as a novice at evens favourite had not run for 225 days prior to this race
so over the last 9 years we are looking at the profile and horses likely to echo that result.
Going at Aintree is given as good to soft with good ground in places both codes
Going at Aintree is given as good to soft with good ground in places both codes
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-4
6yo: 1-0-5
7yo: 1-1-13
8yo: 1-5-16
9yo: 2-2-12
10yo: 2-1-10
11yo+: 2-1-5
Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-7-38
Horses aged 9 to 12: 6-4-27
The only 2 winners aged younger than 8 were grade 1 chase winners in past 12 months.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 5-8-27
Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 4-3-38
7 of 9 winners carried 10-10 or more.
Top Weight: 251241432 (2-2-9)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 154 or higher: 6-8-31
Horses rated 153 or lower: 3-3-34
Horses officially rated 151 or higher have won the last 7 runnings.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 9 winners had been off the track for over 6 months
7 of 9 winners (last 4) posted an RPR of 147+ on last completed start
9 of 9 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (7 had run in 5 or fewer)
8 of 9 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chase (exception was Monet's Garden in 2010, had won 2 handicap chases - this race twice before)
8 of 9 winners (last 8) had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
9 of 9 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase
7 of 9 winners (last 7) had won a grade 1 or 2 chase in previous 12 months
9 of 9 winners had won over 2M 4F or further
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Melling Chase(Wishful Thinking): 5142432 (1-2-7)
Scotty Brand H'cap Chase winner (Conquisto): 4 (0-0-1)
Byrne Group Plate Chase winner (Carrickboy): 5 (0-0-1)
3 of 9 winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing 132
2 of 9 winners ran in Amlin Chase 1965, finishing 6F
2 of 9 winners ran in previous season's December Gold Cup, finishing 6P
2 of 9 winners ran in Ascot Chase, finishing 11 (both Monet's Garden)
8 of 9 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival (3 Ryanair, 1 Jewson Novice Chase, 1 Gold Cup, 1 Queen Mother, 1 Grand Annual & 1 Byrne Group Plate)
5 of 9 winners ran at that year's Aintree National meeting (3 Melling chase, 1 Topham & 1 Grand National)
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (1-3-12) has gained 1 win and 3 places from his 12 runners, however he has been responsible for the favourite 6 times in past 9 years.
Philip Hobbs (1-2-4) has gained a win and 2 places from 4 runners.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-3) has saddled 1 win and 1 place from 3 runners.
Peter Bowen (0-2-3) has seen his 3 runners finish 2nd-3rd-2nd.
Racing Tactics
5 of 9 winners led from the second fence
Five winners made almost all, while 2 others race prominently.
Price
6 of 9 winners went off 4/1 or shorter, while the other 3 went off between 8/1 & 14/1.
Favourites (2-2-11) gained 2 wins & 2 places from 11 runners, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.
Summary:
· Aged 8 or older
· Carrying 10-10 or more
· Officially rated 151 or higher
· Having first run this season
· Posted an RPR of 147+ on last completed start
· Run in 5 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 1)
· Won over 2M 4F+
· Won a grade 1 or 2 chase in past 12 months
· Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase
· Ran in a chase at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival (ideally Ryanair)
· Finished in first 3 in Melling Chase last time
· Likes to lead or race prominently
So in what can be a race where the stand out horses are entered Walkon is a front running horse and looks a very worthy favourite clearly fitting the picture of past winners - can handle any ground and distance is the right end of the handicap yard is flying at the moment and this horse has won with a layoff of this time - but its not quite the For Non Stop profile for me -
attention turns to Conquisto under Mr McCoy (He´s not very big and he´s not your archetypal chaser but he thinks he´s big and he´s the most genuine horse I´ve trained. He´s taken to the chasing game well and he´s improving all the time. Steve Gollings, trainer.) am sweet on its chances today hes Never been out of the first three in any chase - will he do the distance - its run against Overturn says it needs this distance will it run well enough this fresh ? thats the doubt that keeps its price out at 10/1 currently - but it has run fresh as a hurdler and McCoy has opted to ride it will do for me on that count
So am looking at these two in a reverse forecast - but as always there is a joker in the pack and that one is CarrickBoy the Hemmings Owned animal - now with Vanessa - is really the handicapped animal for today and it really is a patchy old form for this one - but as ever watch out for any money this yard who's horses can spring a surprise and this one has a great mark
and making major notes on the race !
Others to watch out for today
Stratford 2.10 - Top Tottie for Daly
and the tizzards animal - Theatrical Star - you have to second guess this stable when they bring a horse back down in distance - it certainly will be going when others cry enough with this heavy ground
