Early thoughts for the day....

The markets won't settle for a while, but I've been through the races and here are my first thoughts.....

BACK bets:

2.20 Leop Made In Taipan
3.10 Font Quel Bruere
3.45 Font Karabak
3.55 Leop Prince Erik

LAY Bets:

3.45 Font Celestial Halo

No posts for a while! I hope everyone is okay!

Cheltenham in a couple of weeks and plenty of trials run/being run. Amazingly, no all weather today! However, we have national hunt racing on awfull ground, at Leopardstown, Fontwell and Towcester. I haven't yet found anything worth noting, although there could be a good lay in Ireland. Back just before racing people.......

Haydock national trial 3.20

When they call the ground heavy at Haydock they mean it  3m4f and a low weight seems the order of the day.Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 7 to 9

·         Officially rated 135 to 146

·         Won or placed last time out

·         Posted highest RPR at a left-handed track in past 2 outings

·         Won over 2M 7F or further

·         Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

·         First 2 in Scottish, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National

·         Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+

·         Priced between 7/1 and 18/1

The ground distorts everything that's for sure but animals who are in good form off a low weight and can stay longer than the crowds in Cairo is what your looking for 

have shortlisted the following 

• Westend Rocker (will love the ground)
• Major Malarky will def stay on his run  at Chepstow
• King Fontain (Course win was very good indeed and just romped clear)
• Sarde - Am very keen on this light weight improving animal - however there are reports that it bruised a foot and missed a week preparation - how it has affected him will be shown in the market. its win at Newbury where it flew the fences over 3m2f under an amateur was brilliant - of a low weight - has only run on heavy twice  but has had feet problems and these seem to be well cured - will do for me 
•  Good luck all

Bobt

TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Well here it is at last and a few non entries but still a race to savour - have given the stats already but with the ground going soft and g/sft in places with fog still expected to linger  attention turns to the good novice Recession Proof who is ridden by Dougie Costello - will love the ground and stays well beyond this distance - off a handy 10-08 this horse does have an improving profile that interests me and can go on any ground - it win at Lingfield just for the run on the AW flat  after its impressive win over 2m3f on heavy ground says this one is at the top of his form.  yep its a big step up in grade but does not have a lot to prove on its profile so far - you will need to stay and handle the ground and this one comes to the top of the picks along with the previous mentioned Rebel Dancer - ridden by that decent claimer Murphy who takes a handy 3lbs (Dougie Costello rode it here last time!) 
these two will do for me in straight win bets - good luck all its a fascinating race
BobT 

TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

THE Totesport Trophy card has been rescheduled for Friday pending satisfactory results from the two post mortems of the horses that died in the paddock before the first race on Saturday.

The rescheduled card will feature the AON and Game Spirit Chases along with the Totesport Trophy, although all races will be run with less prize-money than on the original fixture.

Newbury managing director Stephen Higgins said: "It has been a difficult week so far for all involved with Saturday's traumatic events. 

"Having received confirmation from Southern Electric Power Distribution that the paddock site is safe for both horses and people, we are confident that racing should resume.

"We have been in talks with the BHA and our sponsors the Tote and AON, with regard to rescheduling the remaining races from Saturday's card and it is our intention for them to take place on Friday, 18 February."

 Yippeeee

how deep was that cable?

Newbury was just awful and nothing to say other than it was ridiculous and unforgivable - the explanation of an electric cable  damaged whilst aerating the ground is just unacceptable - aerating? that's at least a fork tyne deep - no cable should have such insufficient cover and should have been in an armour proof sheathing or in the past a duct of old fashioned clay pipe ---
there are special requirements for wiring around and in stables - are they telling us there is no safety precautions on a track?
BobT

 

TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Hi All many thanks for all the kind words since i last logged onto the Blog - Things have been very much more important than racing and its really good to have an improving situation over the last week 
here for your interest is the trends for the big race today on g/osft ground it should be a cracker 
TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) 3.35 Newbury 

The Totesport Trophy Hurdle is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 12th February. The race has had to be abandoned in 2 of the last 5 years through frost!

Trends for the past 10 running’s (1999-2010):

winner

age

wgt

sp

trainer

jockey

get me out of here

6

10-6

6/1

jonjo o'neill

a p mccoy

wingman

6

10-0

14/1

gary moore

jamie moore

heathcote

5

10-6

50/1

gary moore

jamie moore

essex

5

11-6

4/1f

m j p o'brien

barry geraghty

geos

9

10-9

16/1

nicky henderson

marcus foley

spirit leader

7

10-0

14/1

mrs john harrington

n williamson

copeland

7

11-7

13/2

m c pipe

a p mccoy

landing light

6

10-2

4/1f

nicky henderson

mick fitzgerald

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just under 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses allotted 11-0 or more: 4-7-47

Horses allotted 10-13 or less: 6-23-168

Not much to go on as far weights go though horses carrying 11 stone or more have won 4 of the last 10 from less than 22% of total runners.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 145 or more: 1-5-31

Horses rated 131 to 144: 7-19-138

Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-6-46

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run no more than 6 times since August

10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)

9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better handicap hurdle last time(exception Get Me Out Of Here came into the race unbeaten)

9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles

9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)

8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Get Me Out Of Here): P00 (0-0-3)

 Interesting fact is that he had won at newbury on its last run before the Tote (over 2miles in a race for horses in their second season) This year´s line-up featured several with the potential to make their mark in decent handicaps later in the season, and the time was just over 2secs quicker than the earlier Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
This year the most promising run in the same race was Rebel Dancer did well on faster surfaces in the late summer, and had gone up 7lb after falling when giving the progressive Nearby a race at Bangor. Returning from a seven-week break, he was held up before staying on well to chase home the winner, although never looking as if he would get past TOCCA FERRO (one handsome beast) This was a good effort from 5lb out of the handicap, this one fits the profile well

MCR Handicap Hurdle winner (Final Approach): 071 (1-0-3)

This is a horse that can upset the English on its win in the MCR - FINAL APPROACH looked like a bridle horse on more than one occasion. That´s something he couldn´t be accused of now as he ran out a very easy winner of this contest after finding plenty off the bridle. Held up just off the pace, he did get a nice run up the inside when it counted but he didn´t come off the bridle to get to the front early in the straight and quickened up when asked. This was a smart performance by a horse definitely ahead of the handicapper and how much more he can improve is something that will become evident, but he looks a horse from whom there could be plenty more to come. Irish trained runners (2-2-27) have provided 2 of the last 10 winners from less than 13% of the runners.

Price

6 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 8/1 but 4 of the last 6 winners went off at 14/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner.

Favourites (2-3-11) have won 2 of the last 10 & show a level return to a unit stake.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 5 to 7

Finished in the first 3 last time out in a class 2 or better hurdle

First or second season hurdler

Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles

Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season

Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it

Run in the MCR or Stellar Football Handicap Hurdle this season

Trained by N Henderson, P Hobbs or G Moore

 good luck all

 BobT