here for your interest is the trends for the big race today on g/osft ground it should be a cracker
TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) 3.35 Newbury
The Totesport Trophy Hurdle is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 12th February. The race has had to be abandoned in 2 of the last 5 years through frost!
Trends for the past 10 running’s (1999-2010):
winner | age | wgt | sp | trainer | jockey | |||||||
6 | 10-6 | 6/1 | ||||||||||
6 | 10-0 | 14/1 | ||||||||||
5 | 10-6 | 50/1 | ||||||||||
5 | 11-6 | 4/1f | ||||||||||
9 | 10-9 | 16/1 | ||||||||||
7 | 10-0 | 14/1 | ||||||||||
7 | 11-7 | 13/2 | ||||||||||
6 | 10-2 | 4/1f | ||||||||||
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just under 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses allotted 11-0 or more: 4-7-47
Horses allotted 10-13 or less: 6-23-168
Not much to go on as far weights go though horses carrying 11 stone or more have won 4 of the last 10 from less than 22% of total runners.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 145 or more: 1-5-31
Horses rated 131 to 144: 7-19-138
Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-6-46
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 6 times since August
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better handicap hurdle last time(exception Get Me Out Of Here came into the race unbeaten)
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Get Me Out Of Here): P00 (0-0-3)
Interesting fact is that he had won at newbury on its last run before the Tote (over 2miles in a race for horses in their second season) This year´s line-up featured several with the potential to make their mark in decent handicaps later in the season, and the time was just over 2secs quicker than the earlier Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
This year the most promising run in the same race was Rebel Dancer did well on faster surfaces in the late summer, and had gone up 7lb after falling when giving the progressive Nearby a race at Bangor. Returning from a seven-week break, he was held up before staying on well to chase home the winner, although never looking as if he would get past TOCCA FERRO (one handsome beast) This was a good effort from 5lb out of the handicap, this one fits the profile well
This year the most promising run in the same race was Rebel Dancer did well on faster surfaces in the late summer, and had gone up 7lb after falling when giving the progressive Nearby a race at Bangor. Returning from a seven-week break, he was held up before staying on well to chase home the winner, although never looking as if he would get past TOCCA FERRO (one handsome beast) This was a good effort from 5lb out of the handicap, this one fits the profile well
MCR Handicap Hurdle winner (Final Approach): 071 (1-0-3)
This is a horse that can upset the English on its win in the MCR - FINAL APPROACH looked like a bridle horse on more than one occasion. That´s something he couldn´t be accused of now as he ran out a very easy winner of this contest after finding plenty off the bridle. Held up just off the pace, he did get a nice run up the inside when it counted but he didn´t come off the bridle to get to the front early in the straight and quickened up when asked. This was a smart performance by a horse definitely ahead of the handicapper and how much more he can improve is something that will become evident, but he looks a horse from whom there could be plenty more to come. Irish trained runners (2-2-27) have provided 2 of the last 10 winners from less than 13% of the runners.
Price
6 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 8/1 but 4 of the last 6 winners went off at 14/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won 2 of the last 10 & show a level return to a unit stake.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 5 to 7
Finished in the first 3 last time out in a class 2 or better hurdle
First or second season hurdler
Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season
Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it
Run in the MCR or Stellar Football Handicap Hurdle this season
Trained by N Henderson, P Hobbs or G Moore
good luck all
BobT
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