Wednesday 31st October 2012

Greeting folks, had a little holiday since my last post and back now fully refreshed. Today's NH action is from Haydock Park and the 3m Handicap Chase at 1510 is the race Im focusing on.

Buffalo Bob has conditions to suit here, though softer ground will increase his chances. He's had a wind operation since his last run can go well fresh and is a front runner who will give a good account.
Vincitore ran really well last time on reappearance and up 5lbs but he has yet to win a handicap from seven attempts, up in class here and ground maybe too soft.
Ballybough Gorta has taken really well to chasing with four wins and two seconds, up 3lbs for latest run and should be on the scene providing ground not to soft.
Allanard produced a career best five days ago but generally inconsistent and not the best of jumpers, race record suggests that this run may come to soon.
Satou has ability, three miles suits but he wouldn't want it too soft, he's well in off 115 and if fully tuned up for reappearance he's respected. Race record suggests he will come on for the run.

Verdict

Buffalo Bob by process of elimination looks the one here even though his trainers stated he's only 90% fit as his early season target is next month at Newbury. Satou is respected as a threat but his record suggests he will come on for the run.

Bets

Buffalo Bob  win single @ 5/1

Wonderful posting by the horseman!

Hi guys am in the middle of too many hospital appointments with my family  to be interested in which horse runs better than another and wont be posting for a while.

certainly when i have to odd moment I will be reading the blog and have to congratulate yesterdays postings with three clear cut winner - well done and hope you can continue  with such incisive selections and reasoning

Really hope that I will be back soon - good luck all

 Bob

Worcester & Fontwell

My two selections both needed the run yesterday and are ones to keep a close eye on over the course of the season, money lent definitely. Onto today then and my selections come from Fontwell & Worcester. In the 1410 at Worcester, a 2m4f handicap chase Golden Chieftain looks well in off a mark of 127 and I think he has plenty more to offer after a fast finishing fifth at Chepstow on his reappearance eleven days ago, his record suggests he needs his reappearance run so he should strip a lot fitter today. The main danger is Double Ross from the Twiston-Davies yard who is potentially a very nice horse, he ran well on his chase debut just being touched off by Jump City at Newton Abbot and improvement looks assured, anything over 13/2 and I'd seriously consider backing him each-way.

Over to Fontwell and the 2m6f Handicap Chase at 1525 where Venetian Lad is the selection, he's running off a career high mark today of 102 but he couldn't be in better form, he's won three of his last four races, all at Fontwell, he'll go on the likely heavy ground and his trainer has an excellent record in Handicap chases at the track.


Bets

1410 Worcester - Golden Chieftain  -  win single @ 7/2
1410 Worcester  - Double Ross  -  each-way @ 8/1
1525 Fontwell  -  Venetian Lad  -  win single @ 10/3

Saturday 20th October 2012

 Great racing today folks and all eyes for a big race at Cheltenham
 but first the Frankel race at Ascot - can the legend make it 14 out of 14?  to be honest just to watch him run will be a joy even in this horrible ground - Only one favorite has won this race i 10 years  3 four yer old's and 4 3 year old's  with the prices not reflecting the animals past form - its the end of a hard season and the ground will take its toll  and last years winner returning for another tilt makes it as fascinating as you can get. 
 French trainers have a brilliant strike rate with three of the last ten and Cirrus Des Aigles has great form on horrible ground over this distance ridden by Peslier is no back number at 6 yrs old  beating So You Think by 3/4 length here last year and his form if anything is better coming into the race  this year - there is merit in looking for a bet without Frankel and you must take a look at the other overseas runner  Pastorius  who is coming into the race after a tremendous run at Hopegarten  and will be a player at 3 years old 
We have to hope the ground does not get any worse  Clerk of the course Chris Stickels said: "Given a dry day, by this afternoon it will be a soft surface but it won't be a bad racing surface."

Frankel should swamp them if the ground is no worse than soft and even with heavy ground who would back against him? it would be like backing against your family and that makes it a no bet race unless your in the market without Frankel  and currently Pastorius  is 10/1 in that market and will do for me 

Real racing for the winter and Cheltenham 
 mainly a watching day and small bets 
2.30 Watch out for that improving animal Triangular(motionless at Newbury handicap chase led like it had wings 2m6f  favvy took it very easy dotted up with the first time T tie spectacular jumping  had it won miles out 230312 
 and of course the blog horse Bobowen who found 2m6f a tad too far last time 290912 Bobowen gave the form real substance in second as he is another horse on a roll. It was slightly disappointing he couldn´t overcome the winner, though, suggesting he found that trip far enough. 

3.40  and Darna back after 202  days (has jumped well fresh ) but has not shown anything great so far left handed or going worse than good over fences but trounced away in g/soft over hdles  Galaxy Rock went over hdles last run and thats a very good indicator for this race and time of year has an outstanding recor this track in thre runs and CDG winner 

 4.20 and a wide open handicap hdle - the ground will have churned up a bit by this race and there are some up and coming animals under the radar still and that includes Handy Andy heavy-ground point winner in January 2011 A great looker with  a bit of class about him and, although it will all be about chasing with him, he can win again over hurdles off this mark - runs his best within these 7 days and will do for me - 

 good luck today 

 Bob

Cheltenham Friday 19th October 2012

Well i'm back after moving house and just in time for the opening Cheltenham meeting. There's plenty of potential on show today and I'm really looking forward to the racing.
Starting things off is the 2m5f novice hurdle and The New One looks a solid favourite here, very well regarded by Nigel Twiston-Davies he won as he liked at Newton Abbot on his hurdling debut 18 days ago but didn't convince me with his jumping, there's no doubt he's got a engine but until I see him jump a bit better I'll let him run. Village Vic has been backed this morning, goes well fresh and I can see him being involved in the finish along with Special Account who has looked a natural over hurdles rattling off a hat-trick over the summer in lower class races, but the way he has gone about his business suggests there is plenty more to come.

Next up is the 2m4f novice chase and Go All The Way rates a strong fancy for this Jim Dreaper's gelding finished 4th in the Champion Bumper here in March 2011, he has really impressed with his jumping and has improved tremendously in his two unbeaten starts over fences, there is plenty more to come. Domtaline is a danger as he goes well fresh, he's unbeaten over fences all be it at a lower level but this is a big step up in class. What A Warrior and King Of The Night are others to take a close look at.

Over to the 3m1/2f novice chase on the card and I really like the look of Sire Collonges who is built to be a chaser and I expect enormous improvement over fences this term from this through stayer who was an impressive winner on his chase debut at Fontwell in May.

Bets

1445 - Go All The Way  -  win single @ 2/1
1555 - Sire Collonges  -  win single @ 4/1

The Betfred Cesarewitch 131012

The Betfred Cesarewitch takes place at 3.35 today Saturday 13th October and as always will be a wide open affair with 34 runners going to post. It makes up the second part of the Autumn Double with the Cambridgeshire, which was won by Bronze Angel two weeks ago.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-1-17

4yo: 2-9-107

5yo: 1-8-82

6yo: 3-8-54

7yo: 1-2-38

8yo+: 2-2-35

Horses aged 6+ hold an advantage with a combined record of 6-12-127 compared to horses aged 3 to 5 (4-18-206).

4 of the 6 winners aged 6+ had run over hurdles that year.

Weights

No strong trend to be gleaned from the weights of the winners.

Top Weight: 00000005904 (0-1-11)

Horses carrying a penalty (1-5-45) don’t have a great record with just 6 of 45 runners making the frame, though they did fill the 1st & 3rd in 2011.

Official Ratings

7 of 10 winners (including last 6) were officially rated 87 to 98. That ratings bracket has also accounted for 16 of the 20 places in past 5 running's.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in the first 4 on their last flat start

9 of 10 winners ran at class 3 or higher last time out

9 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that year (flat or hurdles)

8 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps

10 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 12: 7-12-120

Horses drawn 13 to 24: 2-11-120

Horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-7-93

Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn low with 7 of the last 10 winners begin drawn 1 to 12.

Horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-6-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 4 of last 10 winners and taken a quarter of the places from just over 15% of the total runners.

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below

Caracciola was a shock 50/1 winner in 2008 and Never Can Tell at 25/1 last year have been the 2 big upsets with the other 8 winners since 2002 all going off 16/1 or below.

Favourites (2-4-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.

Racing Style

8 of 10 winners were held up or settled in mid division

This is clearly not an easy race to be up with the pace early and stay there with only 2 winners racing prominently, including last year’s winner, Never Can Tell, who made all.

There is a strong liking for NH horses - last year they were all the rage and its the same this time round - But last year the first three home were all flat animals  the winner Never Can tell being drawn on the wide outside the next two home drawn low  the placed runners were the biggest improver's  and the fourth carried tom weight  Every year the draw is always considered a significant pointer to success in the Cesarewitch, and with good reason, even though the race distance would suggest there shouldn´t be an advantage. However, as if anyone needed reminding, Frankie Dettori, whose mount was drawn widest, produced yet another world-class ride to secure success in one of the season´s most famous handicaps.

NEVER CAN TELL rarely runs badly and caught the eye on jockey bookings, but it wasn´t easy to envisage the Montjeu filly taking this considering her stalls position, despite sound staying form. Her jockey got her away smartly and the pair soon got to the lead in the early stages. On turning in, Dettori made a conscious effort to take his mount towards the centre of the track down the long home straight, away from her rivals initially, a manoeuvre that quite probably proved to be the winning one.  it was the only Horse whos last run comments were - Ran on strongly and game !

Ermyn Lodge attracted some market support the previous day and rewarded those who went in each-way after being given a positive ride. He is a credit to all concerned with him and was given the right sort of ride from what looked a decent draw. Lightly raced for his age, its no surprise to seem him back to take another crack at this race but its form this year does not match its form coming into the race last year(though he did run to this mark last time and you cant help but think hes been targetted this race - the stable likes a punt and its well worth keeping an eye for market moves..

The only 3yo to take part was Colour Vision, who´d won the previous Monday, for which he was carrying a 4lb penalty. He had beaten the winner when they met at Chester in July and looked to have a good chance when he made a positive surge over 3f out. However, hard though he tried, he didn´t get home as strongly as the winner. Clearly a grand staying type at his best, one would imagine he´ll be campaigned as a Cup horse next year.

Top-weight Mount Athos, the owner´s first string on cap colours, traveled strongly in midfield for much of the contest and plugged on for an honourable fourth after getting into a leading position still going well. Undoubtedly his burden proved just too much when it counted.

 Note - Beyond looked a candidate for this race when winning on his Flat turf debut on his first outing for David Pipe in early July, and had a handy looking draw. He broke quite well and raced handily but lost his position before running on again. finished 7th off a mark of 84 and gets in today off a mark of 86 having run to a mark of 92  over 2m5f at goodwood last time  just 2 lengths + to Hurricane Higgins is well in today and has a cracking claimer taking weight off 

The only runner with ran on Strongly in its last run comments is Martial Law and if you like Countrywide Flame you must like this one at massive odds - they met at level weights and this one was beaten 3l  at Chester BUT today has 4lbs in hand There was much to like about the run of Martial Law, who ran on from an unpromising position. Slowly away and held up, he rallied strongly without being able to land a blow. He was very easy to back but arguably ran his best race since arriving from France. This track will be better for him than that run at Chester it looks an each way steal at the current prices  

 good luck all - its a great handicap to finish the season!

 Bob

Bens Blog and Zander Voy

Those of you who have not taken advantage of Ben's Blog http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk you are missing an insight into racing you cannot afford to do.

There is a very exciting piece by Zandar  Voy - a very likable lad  who can bring the game alive in his blog - 
Miss it you miss a treat - have been following him a while myself and he to me is a rider with a really great idea of pace and skilled at getting an unbalanced horse presented at a fence - as good as many of the best I have seen over the years - I think its his year - read his blog and pop his name into the analyzer for Sedgefield Hexham and Kelso  and take note of any booking for tuff tracks 

He has a penchant for the high Cim tracks and you need that for those courses  and take note when he has a ride down south too

 Bob

Weekend starts the National Hunt season proper

THIS IS THE DOLDRUMS TIME OF YEAR  all in capitals cos its true - the big guns not yet ready for the national hunt season but the call is get ready for some fantastic jumping dual's.

Hardly placing a bet its such dull stuff at the moment - running the analyzer to make sure I have all the stats on sires and progeny - you can smell the frost on the way and the joy of  Sandown Ascot and Cheltenham. hot toddy and misty fruitfulness to come.

That was a bit lyrical but my passion for the jumping game is well known and have taken the opportunity of going to a few yards to see old friends and  young bucks  early morning gallops and seeing the first attempts at popping a fence--- cant wait for it in real time.

The race that has still got the blood hot must be this weekends  Cesarewitch  over 2m2f at newmarket   the trends for this race are pretty solid and have got them ready for the blog later as we see both the ground predictions and how many line up - currently 91? too many to analyse - its always a big field and a yummy market for each way betting - 8 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below Caracciola was a shock 50/1 winner in 2008 and Never Can Tell at 25/1 last year have been the 2 big upsets with the other 8 winners since 2002 all going off 16/1 or below.Favourites (2-4-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.

 but don't forget the opening meeting at Chepstow and the slog that will be Hexham this weekend 

Hope the blog will give us some winners and dark horses 

 good luck make sure you don't waste too much of your satchel - cos the real racing is round the corner 

 Bob