The Betfred Cesarewitch takes place at 3.35 today Saturday 13th October and as always will be a wide open affair with 34 runners going to post. It makes up the second part of the Autumn Double with the Cambridgeshire, which was won by Bronze Angel two weeks ago.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-1-17
4yo: 2-9-107
5yo: 1-8-82
6yo: 3-8-54
7yo: 1-2-38
8yo+: 2-2-35
Horses aged 6+ hold an advantage with a combined record of 6-12-127 compared to horses aged 3 to 5 (4-18-206).
4 of the 6 winners aged 6+ had run over hurdles that year.
Weights
No strong trend to be gleaned from the weights of the winners.
Top Weight: 00000005904 (0-1-11)
Horses carrying a penalty (1-5-45) don’t have a great record with just 6 of 45 runners making the frame, though they did fill the 1st & 3rd in 2011.
Official Ratings
7 of 10 winners (including last 6) were officially rated 87 to 98. That ratings bracket has also accounted for 16 of the 20 places in past 5 running's.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in the first 4 on their last flat start
9 of 10 winners ran at class 3 or higher last time out
9 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that year (flat or hurdles)
8 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 12: 7-12-120
Horses drawn 13 to 24: 2-11-120
Horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-7-93
Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn low with 7 of the last 10 winners begin drawn 1 to 12.
Horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-6-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 4 of last 10 winners and taken a quarter of the places from just over 15% of the total runners.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below
Caracciola was a shock 50/1 winner in 2008 and Never Can Tell at 25/1 last year have been the 2 big upsets with the other 8 winners since 2002 all going off 16/1 or below.
Favourites (2-4-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.
Racing Style
8 of 10 winners were held up or settled in mid division
This is clearly not an easy race to be up with the pace early and stay there with only 2 winners racing prominently, including last year’s winner, Never Can Tell, who made all.
There is a strong liking for NH horses - last year they were all the rage and its the same this time round - But last year the first three home were all flat animals the winner Never Can tell being drawn on the wide outside the next two home drawn low the placed runners were the biggest improver's and the fourth carried tom weight Every year the draw is always considered a significant pointer to success in the Cesarewitch, and with good reason, even though the race distance would suggest there shouldn´t be an advantage. However, as if anyone needed reminding, Frankie Dettori, whose mount was drawn widest, produced yet another world-class ride to secure success in one of the season´s most famous handicaps.
NEVER CAN TELL rarely runs badly and caught the eye on jockey bookings, but it wasn´t easy to envisage the Montjeu filly taking this considering her stalls position, despite sound staying form. Her jockey got her away smartly and the pair soon got to the lead in the early stages. On turning in, Dettori made a conscious effort to take his mount towards the centre of the track down the long home straight, away from her rivals initially, a manoeuvre that quite probably proved to be the winning one. it was the only Horse whos last run comments were - Ran on strongly and game !
Ermyn Lodge attracted some market support the previous day and rewarded those who went in each-way after being given a positive ride. He is a credit to all concerned with him and was given the right sort of ride from what looked a decent draw. Lightly raced for his age, its no surprise to seem him back to take another crack at this race but its form this year does not match its form coming into the race last year(though he did run to this mark last time and you cant help but think hes been targetted this race - the stable likes a punt and its well worth keeping an eye for market moves..
The only 3yo to take part was Colour Vision, who´d won the previous Monday, for which he was carrying a 4lb penalty. He had beaten the winner when they met at Chester in July and looked to have a good chance when he made a positive surge over 3f out. However, hard though he tried, he didn´t get home as strongly as the winner. Clearly a grand staying type at his best, one would imagine he´ll be campaigned as a Cup horse next year.
Top-weight Mount Athos, the owner´s first string on cap colours, traveled strongly in midfield for much of the contest and plugged on for an honourable fourth after getting into a leading position still going well. Undoubtedly his burden proved just too much when it counted.
Note - Beyond looked a candidate for this race when winning on his Flat turf debut on his first outing for David Pipe in early July, and had a handy looking draw. He broke quite well and raced handily but lost his position before running on again. finished 7th off a mark of 84 and gets in today off a mark of 86 having run to a mark of 92 over 2m5f at goodwood last time just 2 lengths + to Hurricane Higgins is well in today and has a cracking claimer taking weight off
The only runner with ran on Strongly in its last run comments is Martial Law and if you like Countrywide Flame you must like this one at massive odds - they met at level weights and this one was beaten 3l at Chester BUT today has 4lbs in hand There was much to like about the run of Martial Law, who ran on from an unpromising position. Slowly away and held up, he rallied strongly without being able to land a blow. He was very easy to back but arguably ran his best race since arriving from France. This track will be better for him than that run at Chester it looks an each way steal at the current prices
good luck all - its a great handicap to finish the season!
Bob
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