The William Hill Lincoln Handicap 300313 (and Haydock!)

The William Hill Lincoln Handicap, hopefully  will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 30th March, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double. ground is said to be drying out but still described as soft this morning

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 6-8-65

5yo: 1-10-70

6yo: 3-7-51

7yo: 0-2-25

8yo+: 0-3-14

4yo have won 6 of the last 10 running's

4 to 6 years old have won last 10 however they represented approximately 82.7% of total runners.

There has only been one winner aged above 6 in the past 20 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 9-1 or more: 4-12-69

Horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 6-12-101

Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 0-6-55

8 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-2 and all 10 winners carried at least 8-9.

Horses running with a penalty (1-4-14) have gained 1 win and 4 places from 15 runners.

Top weight: 0170027604 (1-2-10)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 95 or higher: 9-22-140

Horses rated 94 or lower: 1-8-85

9 of 10 winners (including the last 5) were officially rated 95 or higher.

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last turf start (5 won)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR on one of their last two starts in Britain

9 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 4 starts

10 of 10 winners previously gained 2 to 4 career wins

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps

9 of 10 winners won over 1M+ (exception was 2nd in previous year's Lincoln)

8 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season

8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+

0 of 10 winners had previously won at the track

9 of 10 winners gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3

1 of 10 winners won a class 1 race (listed)

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Brae Hill): 090 (0-0-3)

Highest placed finisher from Betfred Bonus King H'cap: 1842032 (1-4-7)

Royal Hunt Cup winner (Prince Of Johanne): 3 (0-1-1)

Sport360.co.uk Handicap winenr (Anton Chigurh): 3 (0-1-1)

Betfred Seaton Delaval Handicap winner (Swiftly Done): 4 (0-1-1)

Victoria Cup winner (Global Village): 072 (0-1-3)

Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial (Strictly Silver): 300 (0-1-3)

Spring Cup winner (Captain Bertie): 050 (0-0-3)

Previous season's Spring Mile winner (Norse Blues): 0R05 (0-0-4)

2 of 10 winners ran in Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 80

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 70

2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Summer Double International Stakes, finishing 00

5 of 10 winners had their last turf run at Newmarket the previous October/November

Since 2000 the record of first 5 from Betfred "Bonus King" H'cap to run in this: 00101430154002032 (3-6-17). Bancnuanaheireann finished 4th in the 2012 running.

Trainers

William Haggas (2-1-4) has won the race twice in past 6 years & also saddled 3rd last year.

Richard Fahey (1-5-21) trained the winner last year and also saddled 5 more places since 2003.

John Quinn (1-1-7) trained Blythe Knight to win the race in 2006 and finish 2nd in 2008.

John Gosden (1-0-4) trained the winner in 2009.

David Barron (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners make the frame.

Trainers who have not had much luck in this are Kevin Ryan (0-0-10) and Richard Hannon (0-0-5) have failed to saddle a single placed finisher from 15 combined runners.

Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2001-2012)

Horses drawn 1 to 7: 4-15-70

Horses drawn 8 to 14: 4-8-70

Horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-7-84

No strong trends on the draw, though the Spring Mile which takes place earlier on the Lincoln card can often give pointers as where best to be drawn.

Price

No strong trends on prices, 6 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 in the betting but last 2 winners have gone off 16/1 & 25/1.

Favourites (3-0-11) have won 3 of the last running's, giving a level stakes profit of 4.33.

 So your looking at horses that have soft ground in their breeding - horses that like this sort of track and distance aged 4- 6 ( looking for a horse that finished in the first three last start my be a bit more problematical with this ground note - horses drawn 20 21 22  and horses drawn 5 and 7 on the other side have just about the most winning drawn stats and drawn 11 - 16 about the worst - 

 lets look at the soft ground sires - the big stand out is Whipper bred

Swifty Done -  trading around 24/1 today on betfair - has a favored draw in 5 and gets in really well in the weights having run about 3lbs above this mark on good ground and to this mark on heavy ground over a mile and has it in the book for a cdg win on soft ground  - whipper bred animals optimum trip is 1m2f soft ground so this one will stay -  its a hold up horse with a devastating late finish you can take its fitness on trust having ran a blinding second after a layoff of 203 days  What about its 7lbs claimer?Luke Leadbitter - well his strike rate is 6% in handicaps  with 1 win 1 -2nd 1- 3rd and 1-4th from 16 runs (not bad for a  7 lbs claimer) does not look big enough to ride a horse but is s strong young man with a good brain and think him very stylish.

 other soft ground bred animals  are : - Levitate  ----  Muffin Mcleay -  Hit The Jackpot   (take a good long look at these in betting they have great soft ground potential   

and  Chapter Seven  trading around 14/1 Excellent Art bred  (ridden by Lee) though a poor'ish draw this one is a hell of a fighter who does not mind weaving his way through tight fields in fact revels in it  has to defy the handicapper but that can happen with a 4 year old and maybe the box 14 will suite this one  and you have to say that Lahaag who finished a head down to Chapter Seven holds a big chance of this mark has been pretty heavily smashed into by the handicapper but has never finished out of the frame in all four starts  and has a box advantage over that one Lahaag has not got a soft ground pedigree as such

 And the  improver in the field is Strictly Silver winner of the Wolverhampton trial with this claimer who continues to impress  competitive renewal of the Lincoln Trial, run at a decent pace. second at Lingfield in his previous start had since been franked by the winner and third  he made the most of the beautiful gap that presented itself over a furlong out and took full advantage of the wayward route taken by the runner-up to grab victory. The impressive finish this horse can achieve must not be overlooked even if this mark is as high as has ever achieved from this well drawn box.

Selections 

 My money will be on  Swiftly Done (take a bigger price than quoted as he will be out the back and will be worth a short priced lay in a field this big) has a brilliant (to me each way chance at long odds) Chapter Seven is a well loved animal by this pundit and will no go off without a few quid on it  - Strictly Silver will want the ground to continually dry out and the yard will be waiting to see that happen 

racing at Haydock is  electric and will be taking my chances with Tony Star  in the 3.15 - my notebook ;- Note Created: 3 Mar 2013 | 11:12  HOW BLOODY UNLUCKY WAS THIS boy today? jumped onto a faller when going like a winner and still stayed on newbury 2nd 20313 follow this bugger

 good luck all - its good to be back

 Bob