The Ladbrokes Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse always takes place on Easter Monday, which falls on the 1st April. Like last year, this year’s renewal takes place 5 days before its Aintree equivalent, which means there will be fewer raiders travelling over from Great Britain. Lesser exposed chasers have dominated the race in recent years.
Prize is £114,634.00
Going - Given as Yielding to soft but check that out its the English equivalent of soft ground but yesterday it ended up soft with heavy in places and cannot see that can be ignored so heavy ground stayers must be a consideration.
Previous winners
| YEAR | WINNER | AGE | WGT | SP | TRAINER | JOCKEY | RPR | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Lion Na Bearnai | 10 | 10-5 | 33/1 | Thomas Gibney | Andrew P Thornton | 153 | |||||
| 2011 | Organisedconfusion | 6 | 9-13 | 12/1 | A L T Moore | Ms N Carberry | 150 | |||||
| 2010 | Bluesea Cracker | 8 | 10-4 | 25/1 | J Motherway | Andrew J McNamara | 147 | |||||
| 2009 | Niche Market | 8 | 10-5 | 33/1 | Bob Buckler | Harry Skelton | 154 | |||||
| 2008 | Hear The Echo | 7 | 10-0 | 33/1 | M F Morris | P W Flood | 158 | |||||
| 2007 | Butler's Cabin | 7 | 10-4 | 14/1 | Jonjo O'Neill | A P McCoy | 147 | |||||
| 2006 | Point Barrow | 8 | 10-8 | 20/1 | P Hughes | P A Carberry | 148 | |||||
| 2005 | Numbersixvalverde | 9 | 10-1 | 9/1 | Martin Brassil | R Walsh | 139 | |||||
| 2004 | Granit D'Estruval | 10 | 10-0 | 33/1 | Ferdy Murphy | Brian Harding | 137 | |||||
| 2003 | Timbera | 9 | 10-12 | 11/1 | D T Hughes | J Culloty | 141 | |||||
| 2002 | The Bunny Boiler | 8 | 9-9 | 12/1 | Noel Meade | R Geraghty | 145 | |||||
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-12 -7yo: 2-6-51 -8yo: 3-7-71 -9yo: 2-9-64 -10yo: 2-4-46 -11yo: 0-1-13 -12yo+: 0-1-4
Horses aged 6 to 8: 6-15-134
Horses aged 9 or older: 4-15-127
6 of last 7 winners have been aged 6 to 8
There has been no winners aged over 10 in past 10 years. There have been 3 winners aged 11+ in past 30 years, all 3 were trained in Great Britain.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 2-12-111
Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 8-18-150
The last 9 winners have all carried 10-8 or less.
Of 38 horses to carry 11-0+ in last 10 years (0-3-38), none have won and only 3 made the places.
Record of top weight: 4PPPPPFFP8 (0-1-10), only 2 of the 10 horses to be allotted top weight have completed the course.
3 of 10 winners were racing from out of the handicap, none by more than 7lbs.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 137 or higher: 0-8-70
Horses rated 125 to 136: 9-13-158
Horses rated 124 or lower: 1-9-33
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 125 to 136.
Since 2007 all 6 winners and 22 of 24 places were filled by horses rated 130 to 140.
Breeding
Irish bred: 8-23-200
French bred: 2-5-34
British bred: 0-2-20
German bred: 0-0-1
USA bred: 0-0-6
8 of 10 winners have been Irish bred though they have represented 76.6% of the total runners. Proportionally French bred horses have superior record, having gained 2 wins and 5 places from approximately 13% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last chase start (2 exceptions were unplaced in a grade A h’cap chase & other was 8th in 4M Novice Chase at Cheltenham)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 131+ on last chase start
8 of 10 winners posted a chase RPR of 133+ earlier that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
10 of 10 winners had won at a right-handed track
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in 3M point to point)
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 13 chases
10 of 10 winners had finished first past post in 2 to 4 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 4)
7 of 7 Irish-trained winners had won a chase at Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
5 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in a Grade A or B Leopardstown H'cap Chase since Christmas (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in Ten Up Novice Chase)
8 of 10 winners had won 2 or less handicap chases
8 of 10 winners (last 8) were 1st or 2nd season chasers
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (3 exceptions were placed in a class 2 or higher chase)
7 of 10 winners won a chase worth 19K+ (3 exceptions placed in a race worth 19K+)
10 of 10 winners had first start in a hurdle, bumper or point to point
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Lion Na Bearnai): 5 (0-0-1)
Conyngham Cup (Q.R.) Handicap Chase winner (Panther Claw): 1 (1-0-1)
4M NH Novice Chase winner (Back In Focus): 1 (1-0-1)
Thyestes Chase winner (Jadanli): 177 (1-0-3)
Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Terminal): U0F1 (1-0-4)
Troytown winner (Tofino Bay): 02P2P (0-2-5)
Topaz Novice Chase winner (Back In Focus): 3 (0-1-1)
Leinster National winner (Rich Revival): U04 (0-1-3)
Batterstown H'cap Chase winner (Murchu): 94P0 (0-1-4)
Holden Plant Rentals Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): PR (0-0-2)
Carrickmines Handicap Chase winner (He'llberemembered): P5 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Raithlin): 88 (0-0-2)
Daily Mirror Chase winner (Treacle): RP (0-0-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final winner (Panther Claw): FU (0-0-2)
Woodlands Park Novice Chase winner (Tofino Bay): 000 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners had finished in the first 5 in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham that season or the previous season (last 2 British-trained winners ran in the 4M race on previous start)
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year’s renewal, finishing F0
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Handicap Chase, finishing 07
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Thyestes Chase, finishing 10
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Carrickmines H'cap Chase, finishing 2P
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Cork National, finishing P8
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 31
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 41
Trainers
British trained runners (3-3-21) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years.
Price
It has been a race for outsiders, with 6 of last 10 winners priced between 20/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (0-2-12) have gained no wins and just 2 places in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 10.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Irish or French bred
· Aged 6 to 10
· Carrying 10-8 or less (no more than 10-13)
· Officially rated 130 to 140
· Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
· Posted an RPR of 133+ over fences this season
· Won over 3M+
· Run at least twice this season & run in the past 50 days
· Won a chase at right-handed track
· Previously won a chase Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
· Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
· Contested no more than 9 handicap chases
· Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
· Ran in this season’s Cork National, Paddy Power and/or Thyestes Chase
· Ran in a Grade A or B h’cap chase at Leopardstown since Christmas Day
· Finished in first 4 in 2012 or 2013 Ten Up Novice Chase
· Finished in first 5 in 2012 or 2013 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham
· Trained in Great Britain (especially by Jonjo O’Neill) or
· Trained by Dessie Hughes, Arthur Moore or a smaller Irish yard
its gonna be a thriller and I like a few for this will be keeping my powder dry till the market squares a bit I like the chances of elliot horse Romanesco for the win was going like a train at Cheltenham in a class 3 g/soft under an armature and is my main fancy after its run there last time staying on and top of its form
and am keeping my eye open for the very dark Rapidolyte De Ladalka who is completely unexposed Lightly raced, he remains capable of better and is probably going to be suited by marathon test.
good luck all
bob
1 comment:
Im on Marasionien 14 BSP here
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