First run in 1883, the John Smith's Northumberland Plate takes place todaySaturday, 29th June and is the highlight of the three-day Newcastle meeting. This class 2 handicap is limited to 20 runners and is run over 2 miles. Horses carrying lower weights that have proven stamina are favored.
The ground looks to be good to soft -
The ground looks to be good to soft -
| YEAR | WINNER | AGE | WGT | SP | TRAINER | JOCKEY | RPR | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Ile De Re | 6 | 9-3 | 5/2F | Donald McCain | Jim Crowley | 107 | |||||
| 2011 | Tominator | 4 | 8-5 | 25/1 | Reg Hollinshead | Paul Pickard | 100 | |||||
| 2010 | Overturn | 6 | 8-7 | 14/1 | Donald McCain | Eddie Ahern | 103 | |||||
| 2009 | Som Tala | 6 | 8-8 | 16/1 | Mick Channon | Tony Culhane | 99 | |||||
| 2008 | Arc Bleu | 7 | 8-2 | 14/1 | A J Martin | Adrian Nicholls | 92 | |||||
| 2007 | Juniper Girl | 4 | 8-11 | 5/1F | Michael Bell | Luke Morris | 104 | |||||
| 2006 | Toldo | 4 | 8-2 | 33/1 | George Moore | Nelson De Souza | 97 | |||||
| 2005 | Sergeant Cecil | 6 | 8-8 | 14/1 | Rod Millman | Alan Munro | 102 | |||||
| 2004 | Mirjan | 8 | 8-3 | 33/1 | L Lungo | Paul Hanagan | 96 | |||||
| 2003 | Unleash | 4 | 8-11 | 10/1 | Philip Hobbs | Jamie Spencer | 100 | |||||
| 2002 | Bangalore | 6 | 9-5 | 8/1 | Amanda Perrett | Seb Sanders | 108 | |||||
Trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-0-1
4yo: 4-10-64
5yo: 0-7-44
6yo: 4-7-41
7yo+: 2-6-38
Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 4-17-109
Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 6-13-79
Older horses have held a slight edge recently, with horses aged 6+ winning 4 of the last 5.
Weights
Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 1-12-67
Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 9-18-121
8 of 10 winners carried 8-11 or less
Top weight: 00000003068 (0-1-11)
Penalty: 030080562 (0-2-9)
Today these weights carried by only three horses
Today these weights carried by only three horses
| 18165391-2 |  | NOBLE ALAN | 10 |
8-11
89
| 111 | 113 | ||
| 19140-6005 |  | PARTY LINE | 4 |
8-10
88
| 88 | 113 | ||
| 2017231-49 |  | MASHAARI | 4 |
8-9
87
| 87 | 112 | ||
Official Ratings
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 85 to 93, though first 3 home in 2012 were rated between 98 and 101.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out
7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) posted an RPR of 91+ on last flat start
4 of 10 winners had their last start in a hurdles race
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice (flat and jumps) that year
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F+ (exception had won over 1M4F)
7 of 10 winners had run in 12 of fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won 3 or fewer handicaps
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had gained highest grade flat win at class 2 or 3 (2 exceptions had won a class 4 handicap on flat & won class 1 or 2 hurdle)
8 of 10 winners were placed in class 2 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K+
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Ile De Re): 86 (0-0-2)
Chester Cup winner (Address Unknown): 830061 (1-1-6)
Two Circles Handicap winner (Homeric): 1 (1-0-1)
Shergar Cup Stayer Handicap winner (Address Unknown): 01 (1-0-2)
At The Races Handicap winner (Ardlui): 302 (0-2-3)
Milos Seafood & Norfolk Ice Cream Handicap winner (Ardlui): 900 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in Chester Cup, finishing 01 (Ingelby Spirit )( Address Unknown) (Good Morning Star) (Ile De Ray)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes last time, finishing 25 (Mubaraza)(Blue Bajan)
2 of 10 winners ran in Download The Coral App from the App Store H'cap, (Mubaraza)(Blue Bajan) finishing 86
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Old Borough Cup, finishing 20
Trainers
Donald McCain (2-0-3) has trained 2 of the last 3 winners, both were 6yos that had run over hurdles earlier that year.
Alan Swinbank (0-3-3) has seen all 3 of his runners since 2003 make the places.
Tim Easterby (0-2-7) and Richard Fahey (0-2-8) have both saddled a couple of placed finishers.
Amanda Perrett (0-1-7) trained the winner 2002 but has only seen 1 of her 7 runners make the frame in past 10 years.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-6) have produced 1 win and 1 place from just 6 representatives.
Mark Johnston (0-0-10) last won the race in 1994 but since 2000 all 15 of his runners have finished unplaced.
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-14-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-8-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-8-48
Ground conditions appear to make a difference. Low draws on softer and high draws on firmer seem to be favourable.
The 2 runnings on good to firm since 2003 were won by horses drawn in stalls 16 and 19.
5 of 7 runnings on softer than good were won by horses drawn in a single figure stall
Racing Style
Both winners on good to firm made all or led for most of the way
5 of 7 winners on ground softer than good were held up
Price
Longer prices have dominated this in recent years with 7 of last 10 winners going off 14/1 or bigger, including two 33/1 winners and a 25/1 shot in 2011.
Favourites (2-2-11) have won the race twice in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6+
· Carrying 8-11 or less
· Officially rated 85 to 93
· Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time
· Posted an RPR of 91+ last time
· Ran in Ascot Stakes, Chester Cup or in a handicap hurdle last time
· Ran in last 55 days
· Ran at least twice in 2013
· Won over 1M 6F+
· Previously run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 3)
· Won a class 2 or 3 race (but no higher)
· Drawn low on good or softer/drawn high on firmer
· Trained by Donald McCain or Alan Swinbank
· Priced 14/1 or higher
So with only three animals carrying below 8-12 and none of them fitting the profile of past winners (though breeding suggests they have staying pedigree) we have to look at todays race with an eye on the newbury 1m6f race won by Arch Villain who is on a career high mark today but gets in off 8-12 having had two runs this term winning them both - runs well within 35 days and the yard are confident of a big run upped to 2miles - I rekon he ran to a mark of 91 last time which gives him a pound in hand off todays mark - has a very wide draw that does not enhance its chances. And Orential Fox who was beaten by him only a neck and has a decent turn around in the weights of 3lbs and can be well drawn in 6 as he is able to run from the front has Fanning on him today and his specialty is distance races
There are question marks about Dear old Noble Alan thats for sure but I have him as the joker in the pack and he wont run without a few quid from me - only one run this year second but a bloody good run at ascot on ground too quick puts him bang in there as one who can upset the apple cart for the more fancied runners - you have to go back yonks to see his brilliant runs in bumpers and off this feather weight I love the ole boys chance to bits in a very open race
good luck all
Bob
Result -Tominator 8/1
2 Oriental Fox 20/1
3 Brockwell 20/1
3 Mubaraza 15/2J
Unlucky - poor old Noble Alan could just not get the run - was not his day but could have been
Oriental Fox was last at one stage but swept down the outside to lead in the straight. Victory looked secure, but perhaps he was in front a bit soon as although he battled on he was just caught. A classy performer who wasn´t beaten by the trip, it´s a shame he has just two career victories to his name. 20/1 but traded right out
Arch Villain the rain was a minus, but he still had his chance.
Hope you got the winner
Bob
So with only three animals carrying below 8-12 and none of them fitting the profile of past winners (though breeding suggests they have staying pedigree) we have to look at todays race with an eye on the newbury 1m6f race won by Arch Villain who is on a career high mark today but gets in off 8-12 having had two runs this term winning them both - runs well within 35 days and the yard are confident of a big run upped to 2miles - I rekon he ran to a mark of 91 last time which gives him a pound in hand off todays mark - has a very wide draw that does not enhance its chances. And Orential Fox who was beaten by him only a neck and has a decent turn around in the weights of 3lbs and can be well drawn in 6 as he is able to run from the front has Fanning on him today and his specialty is distance races
There are question marks about Dear old Noble Alan thats for sure but I have him as the joker in the pack and he wont run without a few quid from me - only one run this year second but a bloody good run at ascot on ground too quick puts him bang in there as one who can upset the apple cart for the more fancied runners - you have to go back yonks to see his brilliant runs in bumpers and off this feather weight I love the ole boys chance to bits in a very open race
good luck all
Bob
Result -Tominator 8/1
2 Oriental Fox 20/1
3 Brockwell 20/1
3 Mubaraza 15/2J
Unlucky - poor old Noble Alan could just not get the run - was not his day but could have been
Oriental Fox was last at one stage but swept down the outside to lead in the straight. Victory looked secure, but perhaps he was in front a bit soon as although he battled on he was just caught. A classy performer who wasn´t beaten by the trip, it´s a shame he has just two career victories to his name. 20/1 but traded right out
Arch Villain the rain was a minus, but he still had his chance.
Hope you got the winner
Bob
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