The Betfred Summer Plate, 3.30 Market Rasen Saturday 20th July,

The Betfred Summer Plate, -3.30 Market Rasen Saturday 20th July, is a listed handicap chase, run over 2M 6½F. Peter Bowen has done exceptionally well in the race in past 10 years, winning 4 renewals. The 32Red Handicap Chase, which is run over the same CD in September, often provides clues to this and Bobowen, who finished 2nd in that race last year, is entered for this.

Age 

The ages of winners has been fairly evenly spread out. No strong trends here.

Breeding

10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred.

3 of the 4 French bred winners since 2000 came from the Pipe stable.The only runner today comes from the Bowen yard!

Weight  7 of the 13 top weights have been placed but no winner has managed to carry more than 11-5 to victory since 2000.

9 of 10 winners carried between 10-7 and 11-5.

Horses carrying a penalty (1-1-3) have gained a win and a place from 3 runners.

Official Ratings

8 of 10 winners were officially rated 127 to 137

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start

7 of 10 winners won last time out

6 of 10 winners ran at Stratford or Ffos Las last time

9 of 10 winners had won a chase since 1st April (exception 2nd in class 2 handicap chase on only start since 1st April)

8 of 10 winners had run in 9 to 19 chases in Great Britain (2 exceptions were novices who had run in 5 chases and won last 2)

8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 13 & 14)

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 5F or further

9 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase in Great Britain but no higher (exception had won a class 4 but placed in listed handicap chase)

0 of 10 winners had won a NH race in Great Britain worth more than £13,000

Other Races

Highest placed finisher from 32Red Handicap Chase here in Sept: 1185813 (3-1-7)

Sheppard Family Handicap Chase winner (Finger Onthe Pulse): 2 (0-1-1)

Perth Gold Cup winner (Problema Tic): 82P (0-1-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in 32Red Handicap Chase here in Sept, finishing 263

2 of 10 winners ran in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 45

2 of last 4 winners won a class 3 Ffos Las handicap chase last time

2 of 2 novice winners won a class 3 Stratford novice chase last time

Trainers

Peter Bowen (4-4-23) has trained 4 winners in the past 10 years and he also saddled the close 2nd last year.

David Pipe (1-2-7) has gained 1 win and 2 places from 7 runners since 2003. His father also had a strong record in the race (won it in 2005 & 2005).

Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) won this in 2009 and Lawney Hill (1-0-1) trained last year’s winner.

Evan Williams (0-3-7) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-9) have both saddled multiple placed finishers.

Price

No strong trends on the prices, with 7 of 10 winners going off between 3/1 & 9/1 while the other 3 winners were sent off between 16/1 & 25/1.   

Favourites (3-3-12) have won 3 of the last 10, showing a level stakes profit of 1.75.

Summary:            

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Irish or French bred

·         Carrying 11-5 or less

·         Horses carrying a penalty do well

·         Officially rated 127 to 137

·         Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)

·         Posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 chase starts

·         Has won over fences since 1st April

·         Has run 9 to 19 times over fences in Great Britain

·         Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)

      Won over 2M 6F+

·         Won a class 2 or 3 chase in Britain (but no higher)

·         Finished in first 5 in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase in October

·         Previously finished in first 6 in 32Red Handicap Chase here in September

·         Trained by Peter Bowen, Evan Williams or David Pipe

Paddy The Hare(Ire) loves this track and ground and is effective front runner this distance but a bit suspect if its the fast paced race expected – as Obrien would have the pick of the Bowen runners that is a big plus too

Dinieur (Fr) has never gone this distance (though came close 2m6f hdles) Bowen targets this race and you can take a lot of trust in it getting the distance on that alone

Buck Mulligan(GB) is an out and out stayer with Wedge taking off a handy 3lbs went well in the Prelude chase around here and is def running into form No British animal has won this race!) but certainly a good each way call

Bobowen(IRE) is a favvy horse of mine and having a couple of hdles races under his belt will go extremely well if there is not too much “quick” in the ground – is no  better handicapped than last run around here and Obrien prefers Paddy The Hare 

 Good Luck All

 Bob