The Tote Galway Plate 31st july 2013

The Tote Galway Plate is the highlight of the 7-day Galway Festival  This Grade A Handicap Chase,  Wednesday 31st July,(5.30) is run over 2M 6F and it is always a thoroughly competitive contest that never fails to excite.22 runners at 3.10 today Going  is soft (showers)

The past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-0-1

5yo: 0-0-1

6yo: 1-4-19

7yo: 4-10-48

8yo: 2-4-57

9yo: 2-8-50

10yo: 1-2-25

11yo+: 0-2-15

8 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 9  The one 6yo winner was a French-bred trained by Paul Nicholls.

There have only been 2 winners winner aged 10 in the last 20 years: Life Of A Lord (1996), who was winning the race for a second consecutive year and had won the Whitbread Gold Cup on previous start and Bob Lingo (2012) who had won a handicap chase at Fairyhouse Grand National meeting and placed in another at the Punchestown Festival on last 2 chase starts.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 1-7-46

Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 9-23-170

9 of 10 winners carried less than 11 stone

Lower weights have a definite advantage when there is ease in the ground (no horse has managed to carry over 11-0+ to victory on ground softer than good in past 15 years). However the last 3 times this race has been run on good to firm ground the winning weights have been 11-4, 10-12 and 11-11.

Top Weight: 0262740U45P (0-4-11)

Horses carrying a penalty (0-0-11) have failed to make the places once from 11 runners

 Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 to 160: 1-6-37

Horses rated 127 to 139: 7-14-101

Horses rated 126 or lower: 2-10-78

In the past 4 years horses rated 131 to 139 have won all 4 and filled 12 of 16 places. Again trends on official ratings seem to be affected by ground with higher rated sorts doing better on faster ground.

Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 chase starts

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed chase outing (exception had fallen on last 3 runs)

8 of 10 winners ran in a class 1 chase that calendar year (2 exception not run over fences that year)

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 16 chases (6 of 10 had run in fewer than 10 chases)

9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (exception ran in 8)

8 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (2 exceptions had won 2)

7 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (3 exceptions were all 4th season chasers)

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

6 of 10 winners had won in listed or graded company

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Bob Lingo): 120 (1-1-3) Now aged 11

Down Royal Galway Plate Trial winner (Johannisberger): 54P1 (1-1-4)

McSweeney Arms Hotel H´cap Chase winner (Miss Pepperpot): 032 (0-2-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Gunness Handicap Chase, finishing 8U3

2 of 10 winners ran in the Topaz Novice Chase, finishing 35

2 of 10 winners ran in Boylesports.com Bet On Your Mobile Novice Chase, finishing 7P

4 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in a chase over 2M 4F-5F at that year's Punchestown Festival, finishing 8U23

Trainers

Dermot Weld (2-5-13) has a good record in the race thanks to Ansar who accounted for both Weld’s wins and 3 of his other 5 placed runners.

Willie Mullins (1-3-13) trained Blazing Tempo to win the race in 2011 and also saddled a placed finisher in 2010 & 2012.

Christy Roche (1-2-7) has gained a win and 3 places from 8 runners since 2002.

Liam Burke (1-0-1), Tom Mullins (1-0-2) & Tom Taaffe (1-0-3) have also trained the winner once since 2003.

Leonard Whitmore (0-2-2) has seen both his runners get placed while Niall Madden (0-2-5) has also saddled two placed finishers, from 5 runners (4 of his 5 runners made the first 5). Noel Meade (0-2-18) has also gained 2 places but from far more runners.

British-based trainers (1-1-15) have seen only 2 of their 17 runners make the frame in the past 10 years. Oslot won the race in 2008 for Paul Nicholls, only the second British based winner since 1990. 

 Racing Tactics

6 of 10 winners race prominently

4 of 10 winners were held up midfield

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced between 10/1 and 25/1

Not a strong trends race on prices with winners’ sp’s varying quite a lot year on year, as in past 5 years there have been

2 winning favorites

3 winners going off at odds of between 16/1 & 22/1.

Favourites (2-3-10) have won this twice in past 10 years, showing a level stakes loss of 0.25.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 7 to 9

·         Carrying less than 11-0 (unless ground comes up good to firm)

·         Officially rated 131 to 139

·         Won their start over fences (finished no worse than 5th)

·         Contested a class 1 chase in 2013

·         Second or third season chaser

·         Previously run in no more than 16 chases

·         Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)

·         Ideally previously won a listed or graded chase

·         Won over 2M 4F+

·         Ran in a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 5F at the 2013 Punchestown Festival

·         Trained by Dermot Weld, Willie Mullins, Leonard Whitmore or Christy Roche

my nag me silly horse is Bobowen who flew home over fences at market rasen on g/frm ground under sam twiston Davis who is in the form of his life at the moment and the omens are good for both horse and rider today.(This looked ultra-competitive on paper but it turned out to be nothing of the sort in reality because Bobowen could have been called the winner from a long way out as he traveled sweetly and blew his rivals away.  Was running off a mark of 133 in that race but rated his performance 143 (it was that good)  the capper has raised him to 145 which does not look  too harsh in the light of its running but am mindful that 9 of 10 winners carried less than 11 stone and Bobowen has 5lbs more than that tonight. It will not run without a few quidlests from me on betfair where he is currently trading at 20s and on the drift from this mornings market.

So on the profile you are looking at the handicap for horses numbered 12 and higher. And that of course brings in Carlingford Lough off a low 10-07 but still running off a mark well within the profile at 133 (won around here over hdles off a mark of 129 - last run on soft says hes ready to win this off this mark ! watched that race did really nothing till the end then powered through - over fences is a lil sticky and slight mistakes needs time to sort out its legs 

Elliot runs Romanesco and fits the profile well - not run for 121 days and though has fallen twice over fences market should show how intersting this one is tonight

dark horse must be Bolgers (ex henderson) Quantative Easing not run for 104 days but has won with a layoff this length for henderson - won of marks of 145 at chelt g/soft and gets in here off 137 has won right handed at market rasen on good ground but has regressed wholefully - has it got a new lease of life? market should indicate if so 

The Animal that fits the profile the best is ---- Pride Of The Arctic - this is a scintillating animal that gets into this race on its first handicap mark having beaten that mark hands down on my ratings by 6lbs plus - loves this track having won comfortably 2m6f soft ground - is def graded class animal has been given a hdle race to get its eye in and is my Number one selection for the race 

 good luck all

 Bob

King Geroge update 270713

 have updated the blog this morning with a nod towards Novellist  - enjoy the race and get involved guys 
http://bobt-racingdataform.blogspot.co.uk/

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes Final post

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (sponsored by Betfair) takes place at Ascot this Saturday the 27th July and is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, this year’s race see’s  the main contender, Cirrus Des Aigles, attempt to become the first winner aged over 4 this century.

At Time of writing the weather and ground conditions are uncertain with heavy rain and thunderstorms predicted for the track which is still predicted as good

My Twitter mate Mark Marvel has won tickets for the day and only he can save the event - so we know who to blame come 3.50 and may have to drag him from the bar.

Trends for the past 10 years:

Age

3yo: 2-2-11

4yo: 8-6-40

5yo: 0-7-25

6yo+: 0-1-10

8 of 10 winners were aged 4

 If you fancy the favvy  Cirrus Des Aigles, I will not try and put you off - it does seem to need its first run of the season  but only one run  and older legs does mean it has not got the profile of past winners and the price is all about reputation  Its best distance is 10flngs 

Horses aged 5+ have not won this in past 10 years despite having accounted for over 40% of total runners.

Since 2000 there have been three 3yo winners, 2 won the Irish Derby on previous start, while other won the King Edward at Ascot on previous start.

Trading Leather win in the Irish Derby was a thoroughly professional performance. He´s not flashy but he gets the job done and gallops like a hare when it counts. He´ll have no problems getting the 1m6f of the St Leger and the King George looks his natural target. There is a quote from trainer Bolger that he is pretty ground dependant and that ground seems to be good to firm 

HillStar must come into the reckoning on that stat alone - was incredibly impressive in the King Edward this year in what was a pretty good race  this historic Group 2, the best recent winners  have been Monterosso and Nathaniel. It was run at a steady early pace  favvy Battle of Marengo went on at halfway. three lengths to the good with a quarter of a mile left, but was cut down by the late thrust of HillStar who turned in with just one behind him, but produced a sweeping run down the outside to win going away. The Track distance and going  was right up Hillstar´s street and he could stay further too, The St Leger may come under consideration. 

(Michael Stoute has supplemented Hillstar for this and he has trained the winner 3 times in past 11 years 2002, 2009 & 2010 The animal has won on good g/frm and soft ground .

 Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out

10 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season

9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception placed on both starts that year)

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions won a 1M 4F group 2 at Royal Ascot by over 3 lengths on previous start)

7 of 10 winners (last 7) had won a group 1 or 2 by 3+ lengths

10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races

That season

Irish Derby winner (Trading Leather): 12 (1-1-2)

Grosser Preis Der Badischen Unternehmer winner (Novellist): 1 (1-0-1) will not mind a deep downpour! but can act on the ground anyway and has Johnny Murtagh on board winning all the good stuff!

King Edward VII Stakes winner (Hillstar): 1 (1-0-1)

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Battle Of Marengo): 1 (1-0-1)

John Porter Stakes winner (Universal): 631 (1-0-3)

Previous season

Highest placed finisher from previous year's Arc: 213133321 (3-5-9)

Beresford Stakes winner (Battle Of Marengo): 1 (1-0-1)

Trainers

British-trained runners: 4-13-56 See Stout at start of the piece! and am very interested in  Varians Ektihaam beating of Thomas Chippendale around here  Made all, driven and quickened 3f out, stayed on strongly final furlong, unchallenged (op 7/2 tchd 5/2 as the really dark horse ) 

Irish-trained runners: 4-2-17

French-trained runners: 1-1-7  This is a very interesting Stat - Peslier has been booked to ride Very Nice Name - a very dark horse who has improved this season without much notice being taken - Winner of six races from 7f to 1m 4f on firm and good ground. Third of 11 behind St Nicholas Abbey beaten 3 1/2l at 66-1 on his latest outing in the Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan over 1m 4f (good) in March.

German-trained runners: 1-0-2 (Novelist) Winner of seven races from 7f to 1m 4f on ground varying from good to soft. A winner at 7-2 in the Group 1 Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud at Saint-Cloud over 1m 4f (soft) on his latest outing last month, beating Dunaden by 1 1/4l.(same Race as Danedream last years winner contested before winning here  

Other: 0-1-4

Mark Johnston (0-0-1) has seen 2 of his 3 runners since 1999 make the places.Has a live contender again this year in Universal- has the right profile for the race and  Carrying a penalty for his Jockey Club Stakes victory in May, he´s held his form really well since returning from Meydan in the spring, has a good record in fields of eight or less ( 5-7). If he is allowed to lead as he likes is going to take a lot of stopping, and Joe Fanning  is in great riding form at the moment. The son of Dubawi is an admirable performer and he´s fully entitled to step up to this Group 1 company, though but he won´t find it so easy to dominate classier rivals, his form figures over 1m 4f read 11131. This is def one improving 4 yr old with the right profile at a big  price  with the way it is running and the great form of the yard  this is my Back to lay animal 

.

Jim Bolger has saddled just 2 runners since 1990, a 66/1 unplaced finisher in 1993 & St Jovite in 1992 who won this following an Irish Derby win, like his entry this year, Trading Leather. am as baffled as anyone else just how good the Irish  derby form is   and am swayed by bloger assertion of ground dependancy for fast ground 

Price

All 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter

Favourites (6-1-10) have won 6 of last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 3.98 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 (or a 3yo that won the Irish Derby)

·         Had 2 to 4 runs this season (and won a race in 2013)

·         Finished first 3 last time, posting an RPR of 120+

·         Run in last 50 days

·         Won a group 1 (or won Royal Ascot group 2 last time)

·         Won over 1M 4F (or group 1 winner having first try at this trip)

·         Finished in first 4 in 2013 Tattersalls Gold Cup

·         Ran in Prince Of Wales, Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, Irish Derby or Hardwicke last time

·         Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2012

·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Michael Stoute

·         Priced shorter than 10/1

Its pouring with rain here in Kent as I type  and if its heading to Ascot then my betting will be tempered somewhat 

 Last year was pretty plain sailing with dataform giving the winner top rating 
 This year it is not such a clear picture 

You Can see the favorite has all the stats apart from its lack of runs and its age - 
If the rain comes like it is here then the mudlark  bred Novellist who can act on any going gets the nod from the blog- 

Good luck all

 Bob (saturday morning  11.10)

The Betfred Summer Plate, 3.30 Market Rasen Saturday 20th July,

The Betfred Summer Plate, -3.30 Market Rasen Saturday 20th July, is a listed handicap chase, run over 2M 6½F. Peter Bowen has done exceptionally well in the race in past 10 years, winning 4 renewals. The 32Red Handicap Chase, which is run over the same CD in September, often provides clues to this and Bobowen, who finished 2nd in that race last year, is entered for this.

Age 

The ages of winners has been fairly evenly spread out. No strong trends here.

Breeding

10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred.

3 of the 4 French bred winners since 2000 came from the Pipe stable.The only runner today comes from the Bowen yard!

Weight  7 of the 13 top weights have been placed but no winner has managed to carry more than 11-5 to victory since 2000.

9 of 10 winners carried between 10-7 and 11-5.

Horses carrying a penalty (1-1-3) have gained a win and a place from 3 runners.

Official Ratings

8 of 10 winners were officially rated 127 to 137

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start

7 of 10 winners won last time out

6 of 10 winners ran at Stratford or Ffos Las last time

9 of 10 winners had won a chase since 1st April (exception 2nd in class 2 handicap chase on only start since 1st April)

8 of 10 winners had run in 9 to 19 chases in Great Britain (2 exceptions were novices who had run in 5 chases and won last 2)

8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 13 & 14)

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 5F or further

9 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase in Great Britain but no higher (exception had won a class 4 but placed in listed handicap chase)

0 of 10 winners had won a NH race in Great Britain worth more than £13,000

Other Races

Highest placed finisher from 32Red Handicap Chase here in Sept: 1185813 (3-1-7)

Sheppard Family Handicap Chase winner (Finger Onthe Pulse): 2 (0-1-1)

Perth Gold Cup winner (Problema Tic): 82P (0-1-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in 32Red Handicap Chase here in Sept, finishing 263

2 of 10 winners ran in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 45

2 of last 4 winners won a class 3 Ffos Las handicap chase last time

2 of 2 novice winners won a class 3 Stratford novice chase last time

Trainers

Peter Bowen (4-4-23) has trained 4 winners in the past 10 years and he also saddled the close 2nd last year.

David Pipe (1-2-7) has gained 1 win and 2 places from 7 runners since 2003. His father also had a strong record in the race (won it in 2005 & 2005).

Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) won this in 2009 and Lawney Hill (1-0-1) trained last year’s winner.

Evan Williams (0-3-7) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-9) have both saddled multiple placed finishers.

Price

No strong trends on the prices, with 7 of 10 winners going off between 3/1 & 9/1 while the other 3 winners were sent off between 16/1 & 25/1.   

Favourites (3-3-12) have won 3 of the last 10, showing a level stakes profit of 1.75.

Summary:            

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Irish or French bred

·         Carrying 11-5 or less

·         Horses carrying a penalty do well

·         Officially rated 127 to 137

·         Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)

·         Posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 chase starts

·         Has won over fences since 1st April

·         Has run 9 to 19 times over fences in Great Britain

·         Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)

      Won over 2M 6F+

·         Won a class 2 or 3 chase in Britain (but no higher)

·         Finished in first 5 in Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase in October

·         Previously finished in first 6 in 32Red Handicap Chase here in September

·         Trained by Peter Bowen, Evan Williams or David Pipe

Paddy The Hare(Ire) loves this track and ground and is effective front runner this distance but a bit suspect if its the fast paced race expected – as Obrien would have the pick of the Bowen runners that is a big plus too

Dinieur (Fr) has never gone this distance (though came close 2m6f hdles) Bowen targets this race and you can take a lot of trust in it getting the distance on that alone

Buck Mulligan(GB) is an out and out stayer with Wedge taking off a handy 3lbs went well in the Prelude chase around here and is def running into form No British animal has won this race!) but certainly a good each way call

Bobowen(IRE) is a favvy horse of mine and having a couple of hdles races under his belt will go extremely well if there is not too much “quick” in the ground – is no  better handicapped than last run around here and Obrien prefers Paddy The Hare 

 Good Luck All

 Bob