The Tote Galway Plate is the highlight of the 7-day Galway Festival This Grade A Handicap Chase, Wednesday 31st July,(5.30) is run over 2M 6F and it is always a thoroughly competitive contest that never fails to excite.22 runners at 3.10 today Going is soft (showers)
The past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 1-4-19
7yo: 4-10-48
8yo: 2-4-57
9yo: 2-8-50
10yo: 1-2-25
11yo+: 0-2-15
8 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 9 The one 6yo winner was a French-bred trained by Paul Nicholls.
There have only been 2 winners winner aged 10 in the last 20 years: Life Of A Lord (1996), who was winning the race for a second consecutive year and had won the Whitbread Gold Cup on previous start and Bob Lingo (2012) who had won a handicap chase at Fairyhouse Grand National meeting and placed in another at the Punchestown Festival on last 2 chase starts.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 1-7-46
Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 9-23-170
9 of 10 winners carried less than 11 stone
Lower weights have a definite advantage when there is ease in the ground (no horse has managed to carry over 11-0+ to victory on ground softer than good in past 15 years). However the last 3 times this race has been run on good to firm ground the winning weights have been 11-4, 10-12 and 11-11.
Top Weight: 0262740U45P (0-4-11)
Horses carrying a penalty (0-0-11) have failed to make the places once from 11 runners
Official Ratings
Horses rated 140 to 160: 1-6-37
Horses rated 127 to 139: 7-14-101
Horses rated 126 or lower: 2-10-78
In the past 4 years horses rated 131 to 139 have won all 4 and filled 12 of 16 places. Again trends on official ratings seem to be affected by ground with higher rated sorts doing better on faster ground.
Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 chase starts
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed chase outing (exception had fallen on last 3 runs)
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 1 chase that calendar year (2 exception not run over fences that year)
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 16 chases (6 of 10 had run in fewer than 10 chases)
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (exception ran in 8)
8 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (2 exceptions had won 2)
7 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (3 exceptions were all 4th season chasers)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
6 of 10 winners had won in listed or graded company
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Bob Lingo): 120 (1-1-3) Now aged 11
Down Royal Galway Plate Trial winner (Johannisberger): 54P1 (1-1-4)
McSweeney Arms Hotel H´cap Chase winner (Miss Pepperpot): 032 (0-2-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Gunness Handicap Chase, finishing 8U3
2 of 10 winners ran in the Topaz Novice Chase, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners ran in Boylesports.com Bet On Your Mobile Novice Chase, finishing 7P
4 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in a chase over 2M 4F-5F at that year's Punchestown Festival, finishing 8U23
Trainers
Dermot Weld (2-5-13) has a good record in the race thanks to Ansar who accounted for both Weld’s wins and 3 of his other 5 placed runners.
Willie Mullins (1-3-13) trained Blazing Tempo to win the race in 2011 and also saddled a placed finisher in 2010 & 2012.
Christy Roche (1-2-7) has gained a win and 3 places from 8 runners since 2002.
Liam Burke (1-0-1), Tom Mullins (1-0-2) & Tom Taaffe (1-0-3) have also trained the winner once since 2003.
Leonard Whitmore (0-2-2) has seen both his runners get placed while Niall Madden (0-2-5) has also saddled two placed finishers, from 5 runners (4 of his 5 runners made the first 5). Noel Meade (0-2-18) has also gained 2 places but from far more runners.
British-based trainers (1-1-15) have seen only 2 of their 17 runners make the frame in the past 10 years. Oslot won the race in 2008 for Paul Nicholls, only the second British based winner since 1990.
Racing Tactics
6 of 10 winners race prominently
4 of 10 winners were held up midfield
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 10/1 and 25/1
Not a strong trends race on prices with winners’ sp’s varying quite a lot year on year, as in past 5 years there have been
2 winning favorites
3 winners going off at odds of between 16/1 & 22/1.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won this twice in past 10 years, showing a level stakes loss of 0.25.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 7 to 9
· Carrying less than 11-0 (unless ground comes up good to firm)
· Officially rated 131 to 139
· Won their start over fences (finished no worse than 5th)
· Contested a class 1 chase in 2013
· Second or third season chaser
· Previously run in no more than 16 chases
· Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
· Ideally previously won a listed or graded chase
· Won over 2M 4F+
· Ran in a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 5F at the 2013 Punchestown Festival
· Trained by Dermot Weld, Willie Mullins, Leonard Whitmore or Christy Roche
my nag me silly horse is Bobowen who flew home over fences at market rasen on g/frm ground under sam twiston Davis who is in the form of his life at the moment and the omens are good for both horse and rider today.(This looked ultra-competitive on paper but it turned out to be nothing of the sort in reality because Bobowen could have been called the winner from a long way out as he traveled sweetly and blew his rivals away. Was running off a mark of 133 in that race but rated his performance 143 (it was that good) the capper has raised him to 145 which does not look too harsh in the light of its running but am mindful that 9 of 10 winners carried less than 11 stone and Bobowen has 5lbs more than that tonight. It will not run without a few quidlests from me on betfair where he is currently trading at 20s and on the drift from this mornings market.
So on the profile you are looking at the handicap for horses numbered 12 and higher. And that of course brings in Carlingford Lough off a low 10-07 but still running off a mark well within the profile at 133 (won around here over hdles off a mark of 129 - last run on soft says hes ready to win this off this mark ! watched that race did really nothing till the end then powered through - over fences is a lil sticky and slight mistakes needs time to sort out its legs
Elliot runs Romanesco and fits the profile well - not run for 121 days and though has fallen twice over fences market should show how intersting this one is tonight
dark horse must be Bolgers (ex henderson) Quantative Easing not run for 104 days but has won with a layoff this length for henderson - won of marks of 145 at chelt g/soft and gets in here off 137 has won right handed at market rasen on good ground but has regressed wholefully - has it got a new lease of life? market should indicate if so
The Animal that fits the profile the best is ---- Pride Of The Arctic - this is a scintillating animal that gets into this race on its first handicap mark having beaten that mark hands down on my ratings by 6lbs plus - loves this track having won comfortably 2m6f soft ground - is def graded class animal has been given a hdle race to get its eye in and is my Number one selection for the race
good luck all
Bob
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