The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes Final post

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (sponsored by Betfair) takes place at Ascot this Saturday the 27th July and is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, this year’s race see’s  the main contender, Cirrus Des Aigles, attempt to become the first winner aged over 4 this century.

At Time of writing the weather and ground conditions are uncertain with heavy rain and thunderstorms predicted for the track which is still predicted as good

My Twitter mate Mark Marvel has won tickets for the day and only he can save the event - so we know who to blame come 3.50 and may have to drag him from the bar.

Trends for the past 10 years:

Age

3yo: 2-2-11

4yo: 8-6-40

5yo: 0-7-25

6yo+: 0-1-10

8 of 10 winners were aged 4

 If you fancy the favvy  Cirrus Des Aigles, I will not try and put you off - it does seem to need its first run of the season  but only one run  and older legs does mean it has not got the profile of past winners and the price is all about reputation  Its best distance is 10flngs 

Horses aged 5+ have not won this in past 10 years despite having accounted for over 40% of total runners.

Since 2000 there have been three 3yo winners, 2 won the Irish Derby on previous start, while other won the King Edward at Ascot on previous start.

Trading Leather win in the Irish Derby was a thoroughly professional performance. He´s not flashy but he gets the job done and gallops like a hare when it counts. He´ll have no problems getting the 1m6f of the St Leger and the King George looks his natural target. There is a quote from trainer Bolger that he is pretty ground dependant and that ground seems to be good to firm 

HillStar must come into the reckoning on that stat alone - was incredibly impressive in the King Edward this year in what was a pretty good race  this historic Group 2, the best recent winners  have been Monterosso and Nathaniel. It was run at a steady early pace  favvy Battle of Marengo went on at halfway. three lengths to the good with a quarter of a mile left, but was cut down by the late thrust of HillStar who turned in with just one behind him, but produced a sweeping run down the outside to win going away. The Track distance and going  was right up Hillstar´s street and he could stay further too, The St Leger may come under consideration. 

(Michael Stoute has supplemented Hillstar for this and he has trained the winner 3 times in past 11 years 2002, 2009 & 2010 The animal has won on good g/frm and soft ground .

 Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out

10 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season

9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception placed on both starts that year)

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions won a 1M 4F group 2 at Royal Ascot by over 3 lengths on previous start)

7 of 10 winners (last 7) had won a group 1 or 2 by 3+ lengths

10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races

That season

Irish Derby winner (Trading Leather): 12 (1-1-2)

Grosser Preis Der Badischen Unternehmer winner (Novellist): 1 (1-0-1) will not mind a deep downpour! but can act on the ground anyway and has Johnny Murtagh on board winning all the good stuff!

King Edward VII Stakes winner (Hillstar): 1 (1-0-1)

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Battle Of Marengo): 1 (1-0-1)

John Porter Stakes winner (Universal): 631 (1-0-3)

Previous season

Highest placed finisher from previous year's Arc: 213133321 (3-5-9)

Beresford Stakes winner (Battle Of Marengo): 1 (1-0-1)

Trainers

British-trained runners: 4-13-56 See Stout at start of the piece! and am very interested in  Varians Ektihaam beating of Thomas Chippendale around here  Made all, driven and quickened 3f out, stayed on strongly final furlong, unchallenged (op 7/2 tchd 5/2 as the really dark horse ) 

Irish-trained runners: 4-2-17

French-trained runners: 1-1-7  This is a very interesting Stat - Peslier has been booked to ride Very Nice Name - a very dark horse who has improved this season without much notice being taken - Winner of six races from 7f to 1m 4f on firm and good ground. Third of 11 behind St Nicholas Abbey beaten 3 1/2l at 66-1 on his latest outing in the Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan over 1m 4f (good) in March.

German-trained runners: 1-0-2 (Novelist) Winner of seven races from 7f to 1m 4f on ground varying from good to soft. A winner at 7-2 in the Group 1 Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud at Saint-Cloud over 1m 4f (soft) on his latest outing last month, beating Dunaden by 1 1/4l.(same Race as Danedream last years winner contested before winning here  

Other: 0-1-4

Mark Johnston (0-0-1) has seen 2 of his 3 runners since 1999 make the places.Has a live contender again this year in Universal- has the right profile for the race and  Carrying a penalty for his Jockey Club Stakes victory in May, he´s held his form really well since returning from Meydan in the spring, has a good record in fields of eight or less ( 5-7). If he is allowed to lead as he likes is going to take a lot of stopping, and Joe Fanning  is in great riding form at the moment. The son of Dubawi is an admirable performer and he´s fully entitled to step up to this Group 1 company, though but he won´t find it so easy to dominate classier rivals, his form figures over 1m 4f read 11131. This is def one improving 4 yr old with the right profile at a big  price  with the way it is running and the great form of the yard  this is my Back to lay animal 

.

Jim Bolger has saddled just 2 runners since 1990, a 66/1 unplaced finisher in 1993 & St Jovite in 1992 who won this following an Irish Derby win, like his entry this year, Trading Leather. am as baffled as anyone else just how good the Irish  derby form is   and am swayed by bloger assertion of ground dependancy for fast ground 

Price

All 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter

Favourites (6-1-10) have won 6 of last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 3.98 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 (or a 3yo that won the Irish Derby)

·         Had 2 to 4 runs this season (and won a race in 2013)

·         Finished first 3 last time, posting an RPR of 120+

·         Run in last 50 days

·         Won a group 1 (or won Royal Ascot group 2 last time)

·         Won over 1M 4F (or group 1 winner having first try at this trip)

·         Finished in first 4 in 2013 Tattersalls Gold Cup

·         Ran in Prince Of Wales, Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, Irish Derby or Hardwicke last time

·         Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2012

·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Michael Stoute

·         Priced shorter than 10/1

Its pouring with rain here in Kent as I type  and if its heading to Ascot then my betting will be tempered somewhat 

 Last year was pretty plain sailing with dataform giving the winner top rating 
 This year it is not such a clear picture 

You Can see the favorite has all the stats apart from its lack of runs and its age - 
If the rain comes like it is here then the mudlark  bred Novellist who can act on any going gets the nod from the blog- 

Good luck all

 Bob (saturday morning  11.10)