The Betfred Cambridgeshire 280913 newmarket 3.50

The Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 28th September and as always will be a wide open affair  It makes up the first part of the Autumn Double with the Cesarewitch to follow in October.

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 3-7-65

4yo: 3-8-129

5yo: 2-8-58

6yo+: 2-7-71

Horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 6-17-194

Horses aged 5+ have a combined record of 4-13-129

The last winner aged older than 6 was in 1993.

Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-3-28

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-11-90

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-11-136

Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 1-4-61

Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-1-8

The last 9 winners have carried between 8-7 and 9-3, though that weight band has represented slightly over 60% of total runners in past 10 runnings.

Top Weight: 500000000000 (0-0-12)

Horses carrying a penalty: 1-7-42

Official Ratings

8 of last 10 winners were officially rated 91 to 102

 Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 4 to 7 times that year

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of past 12 months last time out

8 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 96+ last time

8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 handicap last time (2 exceptions ran in a class 3)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won or placed at class 2 or higher

8 of 10 winners had won a race that year (6 had won 2+ races that season)

7 of 10 winners had won a race worth 8K or more

8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (2 exceptions had won over 1M)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a race with 13+ runners

6 of 10 winners had run in fewer than 10 handicaps

Draw

Horses drawn in bottom 10 stalls: 2-8-100

Horses drawn in the middle: 6-11-123

Horses drawn in top 10 stalls: 2-11-100

No very strong trends on the draw of the winners, though horses drawn in middle have done best.

Racing Style

7 of 10 winners were held up off the pace

All 3 winners that raced prominently did so on good to firm ground.

Price

No strong trends on the prices. There have been a few big upsets with a 100/1 winner in 2004 and there have been winners at 25/1 & 40/1 in past 5 years.

Favourites (2-1-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 2.00.

Trainers

John Gosden (2-0-8) trained back to back runnings in 2007 & 2008.

Marcus Tregoning (1-1-3) saddled the 1st & 3rd in 2012.

Michael Wigham (1-0-2) & Tom Tate (1-0-3) have also trained the winner in past 10 years.

Jeremy Noseda (0-2-6) and Mark Johnston (0-2-11) have both saddled 2 placed finishers since 2003.

Michael Appleby (0-1-1), Jane Chapple-Hyam (0-1-1) & Roger Teal (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner make the places in past 3 renewals.

Andrew Balding (0-0-9), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-7) & William Haggas (0-0-5) have struggled in this, failing to gain a single place from their combined 21 runners.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 6 or younger
• Carrying 8-7 to 9-3
• Officially rated 91 to 102
• Has run 4 to 7 times in 2013
• Finished in the first 4 in a class 2 handicap last time
• Posted highest RPR of past 12 months (of 96+) on last start
• Won a race in 2013 (ideally won more than 1)
• Has won or placed at class 2 level or above
• Won over 1M 2F
• Won a race with 13+ runners
• Ran in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury
• Finished in first 5 in Zetland Gold Cup, Betfred TV & Levy Board H'cap or Bet365.com Stakes
• 3yo that finished in first 4 in Boylesports.com Download Our App H'cap
• Trained by John Gosden or Hughie Morrison
• Hold up horses favoured on softer
• Horse that race prominently favoured on faster ground

This is an each way punters dream with bookies offering down to 5 places - the one i like that satifys the stats ground and draw is this one 

632728614 STRICTLY SILVER p 35 4 9-7 102 Robert Winston Alan Bailey80 93 115 grey gelding Dalakhani (IRE) — Miss Chaussini (IRE) (Rossini (USA)) Better than ever this year when winning Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton in March and useful 1m2f handicap on the July course last month; career-best effort on RPRs at York last time and should give another good account in race likely to bring best out of him. sure its got to heft 9-07 and that's outside the trends  for the winning punt   I also like the chances of a big run from (if it pelts down so much the better) 729626121 ASCRIPTION 4x ht 14 4 9-7 102 Joseph O'Brien Hugo Palmer64 101 120 bay gelding Dansili — Lady Elgar (IRE) (Sadler´s Wells (USA)) Improved considerably over 1m this season and 7lb ahead of the handicapper after his latest impressive win at Doncaster, but that was on good to soft (all wins on soft surface);  never won this far though it should do it well if the rain fallsl.  good luck all - the real racing will get the juices running soon and at market rasen today  Bobown and Oyster shell will be there or therabouts   Bob

St Leger Stakes,- Doncaster today Saturday 14th 3.50

The Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes, which takes place at Doncaster today Saturday 14th September, is the final Classic of the season. In recent years the two races that have supplied the majority of the winners have been the Great Voltigeur and the Gordon Stakes, 11 of 13 winners since 2000 ran in one or the other on their previous start.

Trends for the past 10 years:

Dosage

The average dosage profile (DP) of last 10 winners is 6-2-14-5-1 (28.2pts)

Composite Dosage Index (DI) of last 10 winners is 1.12

Composite Centre Of Distribution (CD) of last 10 winners is 0.233

Gender

Fillies (0-3-9) have gained 3 places from 9 runners (2 of the 3 placed finishers were group 1 winners & the other was an unbeaten group winner).

From just 21 representatives over the last 30 runnings, fillies have a 57.1% strike rate of hitting the frame having recorded three wins (Sun Princess, Oh So Sharp and User Friendly), six seconds (Diminuendo, Hellenic, Quiff, High And Low (2nd G1), Ramruma and Unsung Heroine (G3, 2nd g2)) and three thirds (Untold, Roseate Tern and Look Here) which is a good return.

Record of group 1 winning fillies: 23246 (0-3-5)

Breeding

8 of 10 winners were by a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.7F (2 exceptions by Kingmambo

7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in the Epsom or French Derby’s

5 of 10 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or by a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Sadler’s Wells mare

Progeny of Kingmambo: 1381 (2-0-4)

Progeny of Montjeu: 1877307686512 (2-2-13)

Progeny of Galileo: 0032187209272443 (1-6-16)

All 3 runners out of a mare by Diesis were victorious

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season

6 of 10 winners won last time (3 other finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur)

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

10 of 10 winners had last run between 24 and 65 days ago

0 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

10 of 10 winners had last run between 24 and 65 days ago

10 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR of 113+ on last 2 starts (8 last time out)

10 of 10 winners won their maiden over 7F+

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F (exception 2nd in Voltigeur)

8 of 10 winner had won a group race (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group race)

Royal Ascot

Queen's Vase winner (Leading Light): 2 (0-1-1)

Highest placed finisher from King Edward VII Stakes: 223114188 (3-3-9)

4 of 10 winners ran in King Edward VII, finishing 3222

Since 2001 there have been 16 runners in the Leger that have earned an RPR of 105+ in defeat in a 1M2F+ pattern race at Royal Ascot, 7 have won

Other Races

Gordon Stakes winner (Cap O'Rushes): 34211 (2-2-5)

Highest placed finisher from Gordon Stakes: 34210181 (3-2-8)

Great Voltigeur winner (Telescope): 1513636 (2-2-7)

Voltigeur top finisher: 1153103636 (3-3-10)

Bahrain Trophy winner (Feel Like Dancing): 231 (1-2-3)

Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingsbarns): 12 (1-1-2)

Epsom Derby winner (Ruler Of The World): 2 (0-1-1)

Highest placed finisher from Epsom Derby: 7161162612 (4-2-10)

Derrinstown Derby Trial winner (Battle Of Marengo): 2 (0-1-1)

Epsom Oaks winner (Talent): 34 (0-1-2)

Dubai Duty Free Golf World Cup EBF Condition Stakes winner (Contributer): 82 (0-1-2)

King George V Stakes winner (Elidor): 082 (0-1-3)

5 of 10 winners ran in Great Voltigeur last time, finishing 21123

4 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Stakes, finishing 1132

5 of 10 winners ran in the Derby, finishing 02748

3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Derby, finishing 442

2 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 13

Trainers

John Gosden (3-1-8) has won 3 of the last 6 runnings.

Aidan O’Brien (2-5-23) has won 2 of the last 10 renewals but saddled a whopping 23 runners (23.7% of total runners). His first string has a record of 2-4-10.

Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-4) saddled the winner in 2004 and the 1-2 in 2009.

Michael Stoute (1-2-10) finally gained his first win in this race in 2008 with Conduit.

Price

No strong trends on prices, 6 of the first 7 runnings since the turn of the century were won by the favourite, however the last 5 winners have gone off 8/1, 12/1, 14/1, 15/2 & 25/1.

Favourites (4-5-11) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.47.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• By a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.7F (or by Kingmambo)
• By a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Diesis mare
• Sire finished in first 2 in Epsom/French Derby
• Dosage Index close to 1.12
• Centre Of Distribution close to 0.233
• Run 3 to 5 times in 2013
• Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
• Posted an RPR of 113 or higher last time
• Won a group race over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
• Ran in the Epsom Derby
• Finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes last time
• Finished in first 4 in King Edward VII or Irish Derby
• Trained by John Gosden, Saeed Bin Suroor or Aidan O’Brien
• 
  

 As far as I am concerned the winner is Foundry - has all the stats apart from only two runs it is an animal that has all the aces - will handle the ground no doubt about that and was a fast finishing 2nd in the voltiger behind Telescope.

The blog horse Talent to run into the place market -

 Good luck all

 Bob

Irish Cambridgeshire Stakes 010913

The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Irish Cambridgeshire Stakes place at the Curragh today Sunday, 1st September at 4.45 going is forecast to be good to firm  Run over a mile for horses aged 3 or older, there’s a €60,000 prize for the winner, it has enticed Vaughn and Moore to take Dance and Dance  across the irish sea is favourite to win this this morning BUT,there has been no foreign-trained winner of this in the past 30 years.

Trends for the past 10 years:

Age

3yo: 2-9-56

4yo: 3-6-45

5yo: 2-4-46

6yo: 2-7-34

7yo+: 1-3-30

No strong trends on the ages of the winners.

Weight

Horses carrying 9-0 or more: 3-12-70

Horses carrying 8-13 or less: 7-17-141 (majority of runners)

Of the 3 horses to have won carrying 9-0 or more, one had won a listed race and the other 2 were successful in races worth 50K+

Horse racing from out of the handicap: 0-3-20

Top weight: 90041051063 (2-2-11) – both top weights to win this posted a career higher RPR of 105+ when winning their latest outing.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 100 or higher: 2-4-22

Horses rated 90 to 99: 2-12-80

Horses rated 89 or less: 6-13-109

Horses officially rated 87 to 90 have won 5 of last 6 runnings

Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (4 exceptions unplaced in handicap worth 19K+)

10 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days

7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR in past 3 runs

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 89 or higher in last 3 runs (both exceptions posted career high RPR's of 77+ last time)

9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season (exception won on only previous start)

6 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh

4 of 10 winners had won over CD

10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M

10 of 10 winners had won a race in a field of 12+

Other Races

Irish Field Handicap winner (Ansgar): 05022 (0-2-5)

Claytonhotelgalway.ie Handicap winner (Target Acquired): 04 (0-1-2)

I7 of 10 winners contested a 7F or 1M handicap at that season's Galway Festival

Trainers

Mick Halford (2-0-4) trained the winner in 2006 & 2010.  

Kevin Prendergast (1-2-13) has saddled the winner in 1997, 2001 & 2005.

Andrew Oliver (1-0-2), Aidan O’Brien (1-0-4) have  trained  winners in past 5 years.

John Oxx (0-0-2) has seen his 2 runners since 2003 both finish unplaced, however he has won this race 4 times in past 25 years, most recently in 2002.

Joanna Morgan (0-2-4) has saddled the runner-up in 2009 & 2011

British-trained runners (0-3-12) have gained no wins and 3 places from 12 runners. 9 of those 12 runners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, including 2 favourite's. 

Jockey

Claimers: 4-7-70

Non-claimers: 6-22-141

In the past 6 years, a claiming jockey has ridden either the winner (3 times) or the runner-up (4 times) in every running. 

Draw - No strong trends on the draw. 

Racing Tactics

6 of 10 winners led or raced prominently

1 of 10 winners raced in mid-division

3 of 10 winners race in rear 

Price

Recent trend has been towards long-priced winners, with 5 of last 6 winners going off at odds of between 16/1 and 25/1

Favourites (0-5-12) have failed to win any of the last 10 running's  Silverware in 2000 was last winning market leader.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Carrying less than 9-0 or previously won a race worth 50K+

·         Top weights that posted an RPR of 105+ in winning last time do well

·         Officially rated 87 to 90

·         Run at least 3 times in 2013

·         Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in a handicap worth 19K+)

·         Posted an RPR of 89+ in last 3 runs

·         Ran in past 45 days

·         Won over 7F or 1M

·         Won a race with 12 or more runners

·         Ran in a handicap at 2013 Galway Festival over 7F to 1M

·         Trained by Mick Halford, Kevin Prendergast, Andrew Oliver or Joanna Morgan

·         Ridden by a claimer

·         Priced 16/1 to 25/1

whhoops its a classic its fast ground and it brings big priced winners -  Kevin Prendegast has a bloody good runner in Vastonia - this horse has the credentials to win this today and the place market has rewarding odds - Winner of 57K race over a mile on good ground (by Verglass so the ground today will be no worry) has a great lil 3lbs claimer ran an absolute cracker last time looking so smooth  - this claimer has won on him and have taken the way to generous 8s on betfair this morning and the 12s place  

 The 3 yr old Ansgar holds a lot of the stats to win this ran a screamer last time -  a three-time winner, twice at Dundalk and once at the Curragh, had plenty to do at the weights and he produced his best effort to date. He made the running and, after coming under strong pressure over 1f out, he stuck to his task and only gave best close home.

as does  Tobann 220813 -was  unlucky not to finish closer,last run  being snatched up after a furlong and left with plenty of ground to make up. She made a decent fist of it and is very much a filly in form.

 Good luck all

 Bob