The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Irish Cambridgeshire Stakes place at the Curragh today Sunday, 1st September at 4.45 going is forecast to be good to firm Run over a mile for horses aged 3 or older, there’s a €60,000 prize for the winner, it has enticed Vaughn and Moore to take Dance and Dance across the irish sea is favourite to win this this morning BUT,there has been no foreign-trained winner of this in the past 30 years.
Trends for the past 10 years:
Age
3yo: 2-9-56
4yo: 3-6-45
5yo: 2-4-46
6yo: 2-7-34
7yo+: 1-3-30
No strong trends on the ages of the winners.
Weight
Horses carrying 9-0 or more: 3-12-70
Horses carrying 8-13 or less: 7-17-141 (majority of runners)
Of the 3 horses to have won carrying 9-0 or more, one had won a listed race and the other 2 were successful in races worth 50K+
Horse racing from out of the handicap: 0-3-20
Top weight: 90041051063 (2-2-11) – both top weights to win this posted a career higher RPR of 105+ when winning their latest outing.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 2-4-22
Horses rated 90 to 99: 2-12-80
Horses rated 89 or less: 6-13-109
Horses officially rated 87 to 90 have won 5 of last 6 runnings
Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (4 exceptions unplaced in handicap worth 19K+)
10 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days
7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR in past 3 runs
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 89 or higher in last 3 runs (both exceptions posted career high RPR's of 77+ last time)
9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season (exception won on only previous start)
6 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh
4 of 10 winners had won over CD
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M
10 of 10 winners had won a race in a field of 12+
Other Races
Irish Field Handicap winner (Ansgar): 05022 (0-2-5)
Claytonhotelgalway.ie Handicap winner (Target Acquired): 04 (0-1-2)
I7 of 10 winners contested a 7F or 1M handicap at that season's Galway Festival
Trainers
Mick Halford (2-0-4) trained the winner in 2006 & 2010.
Kevin Prendergast (1-2-13) has saddled the winner in 1997, 2001 & 2005.
Andrew Oliver (1-0-2), Aidan O’Brien (1-0-4) have trained winners in past 5 years.
John Oxx (0-0-2) has seen his 2 runners since 2003 both finish unplaced, however he has won this race 4 times in past 25 years, most recently in 2002.
Joanna Morgan (0-2-4) has saddled the runner-up in 2009 & 2011
British-trained runners (0-3-12) have gained no wins and 3 places from 12 runners. 9 of those 12 runners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, including 2 favourite's.
Jockey
Claimers: 4-7-70
Non-claimers: 6-22-141
In the past 6 years, a claiming jockey has ridden either the winner (3 times) or the runner-up (4 times) in every running.
Draw - No strong trends on the draw.
Racing Tactics
6 of 10 winners led or raced prominently
1 of 10 winners raced in mid-division
3 of 10 winners race in rear
Price
Recent trend has been towards long-priced winners, with 5 of last 6 winners going off at odds of between 16/1 and 25/1
Favourites (0-5-12) have failed to win any of the last 10 running's Silverware in 2000 was last winning market leader.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Carrying less than 9-0 or previously won a race worth 50K+
· Top weights that posted an RPR of 105+ in winning last time do well
· Officially rated 87 to 90
· Run at least 3 times in 2013
· Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in a handicap worth 19K+)
· Posted an RPR of 89+ in last 3 runs
· Ran in past 45 days
· Won over 7F or 1M
· Won a race with 12 or more runners
· Ran in a handicap at 2013 Galway Festival over 7F to 1M
· Trained by Mick Halford, Kevin Prendergast, Andrew Oliver or Joanna Morgan
· Ridden by a claimer
· Priced 16/1 to 25/1
whhoops its a classic its fast ground and it brings big priced winners - Kevin Prendegast has a bloody good runner in Vastonia - this horse has the credentials to win this today and the place market has rewarding odds - Winner of 57K race over a mile on good ground (by Verglass so the ground today will be no worry) has a great lil 3lbs claimer ran an absolute cracker last time looking so smooth - this claimer has won on him and have taken the way to generous 8s on betfair this morning and the 12s place
The 3 yr old Ansgar holds a lot of the stats to win this ran a screamer last time - a three-time winner, twice at Dundalk and once at the Curragh, had plenty to do at the weights and he produced his best effort to date. He made the running and, after coming under strong pressure over 1f out, he stuck to his task and only gave best close home.
as does Tobann 220813 -was unlucky not to finish closer,last run being snatched up after a furlong and left with plenty of ground to make up. She made a decent fist of it and is very much a filly in form.
Good luck all
Bob
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