The Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 28th September and as always will be a wide open affair It makes up the first part of the Autumn Double with the Cesarewitch to follow in October.
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 3-7-65
4yo: 3-8-129
5yo: 2-8-58
6yo+: 2-7-71
Horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 6-17-194
Horses aged 5+ have a combined record of 4-13-129
The last winner aged older than 6 was in 1993.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-3-28
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-11-90
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-11-136
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 1-4-61
Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-1-8
The last 9 winners have carried between 8-7 and 9-3, though that weight band has represented slightly over 60% of total runners in past 10 runnings.
Top Weight: 500000000000 (0-0-12)
Horses carrying a penalty: 1-7-42
Official Ratings
8 of last 10 winners were officially rated 91 to 102
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 4 to 7 times that year
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of past 12 months last time out
8 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 96+ last time
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 handicap last time (2 exceptions ran in a class 3)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won or placed at class 2 or higher
8 of 10 winners had won a race that year (6 had won 2+ races that season)
7 of 10 winners had won a race worth 8K or more
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (2 exceptions had won over 1M)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a race with 13+ runners
6 of 10 winners had run in fewer than 10 handicaps
Draw
Horses drawn in bottom 10 stalls: 2-8-100
Horses drawn in the middle: 6-11-123
Horses drawn in top 10 stalls: 2-11-100
No very strong trends on the draw of the winners, though horses drawn in middle have done best.
Racing Style
7 of 10 winners were held up off the pace
All 3 winners that raced prominently did so on good to firm ground.
Price
No strong trends on the prices. There have been a few big upsets with a 100/1 winner in 2004 and there have been winners at 25/1 & 40/1 in past 5 years.
Favourites (2-1-12) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 2.00.
Trainers
John Gosden (2-0-8) trained back to back runnings in 2007 & 2008.
Marcus Tregoning (1-1-3) saddled the 1st & 3rd in 2012.
Michael Wigham (1-0-2) & Tom Tate (1-0-3) have also trained the winner in past 10 years.
Jeremy Noseda (0-2-6) and Mark Johnston (0-2-11) have both saddled 2 placed finishers since 2003.
Michael Appleby (0-1-1), Jane Chapple-Hyam (0-1-1) & Roger Teal (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner make the places in past 3 renewals.
Andrew Balding (0-0-9), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-7) & William Haggas (0-0-5) have struggled in this, failing to gain a single place from their combined 21 runners.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or younger
- Carrying 8-7 to 9-3
- Officially rated 91 to 102
- Has run 4 to 7 times in 2013
- Finished in the first 4 in a class 2 handicap last time
- Posted highest RPR of past 12 months (of 96+) on last start
- Won a race in 2013 (ideally won more than 1)
- Has won or placed at class 2 level or above
- Won over 1M 2F
- Won a race with 13+ runners
- Ran in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury
- Finished in first 5 in Zetland Gold Cup, Betfred TV & Levy Board H'cap or Bet365.com Stakes
- 3yo that finished in first 4 in Boylesports.com Download Our App H'cap
- Trained by John Gosden or Hughie Morrison
- Hold up horses favoured on softer
- Horse that race prominently favoured on faster ground
This is an each way punters dream with bookies offering down to 5 places - the one i like that satifys the stats ground and draw is this one
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