The Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes, which
takes place at Doncaster today Saturday 14th September, is the final Classic of
the season. In recent years the two races that have supplied the majority of
the winners have been the Great Voltigeur and the Gordon Stakes, 11 of 13
winners since 2000 ran in one or the other on their previous start.
Trends for
the past 10 years:
Dosage
The average dosage profile (DP) of last
10 winners is 6-2-14-5-1 (28.2pts)
Composite Dosage Index (DI) of last 10
winners is 1.12
Composite Centre Of Distribution (CD)
of last 10 winners is 0.233
Gender
Fillies (0-3-9) have gained 3 places
from 9 runners (2 of the 3 placed finishers were group 1 winners & the
other was an unbeaten group winner).
From just 21 representatives over the
last 30 runnings, fillies have a 57.1% strike rate of hitting the frame having
recorded three wins (Sun Princess, Oh So Sharp and User Friendly), six seconds
(Diminuendo, Hellenic, Quiff, High And
Low (2nd G1), Ramruma and Unsung Heroine (G3, 2nd g2)) and three thirds (Untold, Roseate
Tern and Look Here) which is a good return.
Record of group 1 winning fillies:
23246 (0-3-5)
Breeding
8 of 10 winners were by a sire with
stamina index of 10.9F to 11.7F (2 exceptions by Kingmambo
7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse
that finished in first 2 in the Epsom or French Derby’s
5 of 10 winners were by Sadler’s Wells
or by a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Sadler’s Wells mare
Progeny of Kingmambo: 1381 (2-0-4)
Progeny of Montjeu: 1877307686512
(2-2-13)
Progeny of Galileo: 0032187209272443
(1-6-16)
All 3 runners out of a mare by Diesis
were victorious
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5
times that season
6 of 10 winners won last time (3 other
finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur)
10 of 10 winners finished in
the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had last run between
24 and 65 days ago
0 of 10 winners finished in
the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had last run between
24 and 65 days ago
10 of 10 winners posted a
career high RPR of 113+ on last 2 starts (8 last time out)
10 of 10 winners won their maiden over
7F+
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over
1M 2F to 1M 4F (exception 2nd in Voltigeur)
8 of 10 winner had won a group
race (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group race)
Royal Ascot
Queen's Vase winner (Leading Light): 2
(0-1-1)
Highest placed finisher from King
Edward VII Stakes: 223114188 (3-3-9)
4 of 10 winners ran in King Edward VII,
finishing 3222
Since 2001 there have been 16 runners
in the Leger that have earned an RPR of 105+ in defeat in a 1M2F+ pattern race
at Royal Ascot, 7 have won
Other Races
Gordon Stakes winner (Cap O'Rushes):
34211 (2-2-5)
Highest placed finisher from Gordon
Stakes: 34210181 (3-2-8)
Great Voltigeur winner (Telescope):
1513636 (2-2-7)
Voltigeur top finisher: 1153103636
(3-3-10)
Bahrain Trophy winner (Feel Like
Dancing): 231 (1-2-3)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingsbarns):
12 (1-1-2)
Epsom Derby winner (Ruler Of The World):
2 (0-1-1)
Highest placed finisher from Epsom
Derby: 7161162612 (4-2-10)
Derrinstown Derby Trial winner (Battle
Of Marengo): 2 (0-1-1)
Epsom Oaks winner (Talent): 34 (0-1-2)
Dubai Duty Free Golf World Cup EBF
Condition Stakes winner (Contributer): 82 (0-1-2)
King George V Stakes winner (Elidor):
082 (0-1-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in Great Voltigeur
last time, finishing 21123
4 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Stakes,
finishing 1132
5 of 10 winners ran in the Derby,
finishing 02748
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Derby,
finishing 442
2 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de
Paris, finishing 13
Trainers
John Gosden (3-1-8) has
won 3 of the last 6 runnings.
Aidan O’Brien (2-5-23) has
won 2 of the last 10 renewals but saddled a whopping 23 runners (23.7% of total
runners). His first string has a record of 2-4-10.
Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-4)
saddled the winner in 2004 and the 1-2 in 2009.
Michael Stoute (1-2-10) finally gained
his first win in this race in 2008 with Conduit.
Price
No strong trends on prices, 6 of the
first 7 runnings since the turn of the century were won by the favourite,
however the last 5 winners have gone off 8/1, 12/1, 14/1, 15/2 & 25/1.
Favourites (4-5-11) have won 4 of the
last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.47.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10
years you are looking for a horse:
- By a sire with
stamina index of 10.9F
to 11.7F (or by Kingmambo)
- By a son of
Sadler’s Wells or out of a Diesis mare
- Sire finished in
first 2 in Epsom/French Derby
- Dosage Index close
to 1.12
- Centre Of Distribution
close to 0.233
- Run 3 to 5 times in
2013
- Finished in first 3
last time out (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of
113 or higher last time
- Won a group race
over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
- Ran in the Epsom
Derby
- Finished in first 3
in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes last time
- Finished in first 4
in King Edward VII or Irish Derby
- Trained by John
Gosden, Saeed Bin Suroor or Aidan O’Brien
As far as I am concerned the winner is Foundry - has all the stats apart from only two runs it is an animal that has all the aces - will handle the ground no doubt about that and was a fast finishing 2nd in the voltiger behind Telescope.
The blog horse Talent to run into the place market -
Good luck all
Bob
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