The Paddy Power Gold Cup 16th November 2.30 Cheltenham

The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place today Saturday 16th November over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase  I make this a pointer race for the season and make plenty of notes the ground is given as good to good/soft and clear weather forecast 

 First three home last year (soft ground) were all french bred (5 French runners in all) one finished 6th and the other pulled up -  18 ran and only 6 finished with one faller and the rest pulled up the first two werew 7 the third a 6yr old 

 last years write up -  a contest with a long history and always very competitive. Subsequent Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander took this in 2008 and there were several in this year´s line-up with the potential to follow in his footsteps. Two of those were AL FEROF (11-08) and Walkon (10-06) and, once the pair joined issue turning for home, they came right away from the rest. 
Al Ferof,  finished third in the Victor Chandler, was a previous course winner over both hurdles and fences. He had won over 2m3 1/2f over hurdles but was unproven at this trip. 
Walkon, a winner and runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle over hurdles on this track back in 2009 but well beaten in the RSA Chase in the spring, appreciated the softer ground and, after travelling well in the wake of the leaders, came out of the pack as the main challenger to the winner. Nadiya De La Vega,(10-08)  runs today carrying 10-03 was 15l behind the winner had made a winning reappearance on this track previous month, was 8lb higher in a tougher race. She showed up just off the pace throughout but could not go with the first two from the home turn. She  looks up to winning good races season. Any Money for this mare could be very significant she runs well fresh and is 2lbs well in on last years handicap
  
 you dont want a 5yr old 9 yr old or  10 year old that's for sure they have performed horribly in this race 

Weight Higher weights have held a slight advantage with 6 of last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more. 7 of 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 39.4% of total runners. 

7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham

10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better

6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 of 4 exceptions placed in a grade 1 hurdle)

6 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season, 3 winning and 1 finished 2nd)

6 of 6 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an MR of 146+ on last completed start

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run less than 10 times over fences

10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers

Last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree

8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival

Price

The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000. (3-3-10) have gained 3 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2003 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 6.00.

- Aged 6 or 7-   Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase(Tap Night -Mccoy)- Previously won a chase at Cheltenham

- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F

- Second or third season chaser

- Previously run less than 10 times over fences

- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases

- Ran in a chase at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival

- First 6 in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase

- Trained in Great Britain

- Trained by David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson

This is a hard nut to crack on trends - most will go for the higher rated horses and there is a clear picture of them in past winners - however am strongly attracted to Twiston buggers record with the animals rated below the 147 mark Imperial Commander won this easily off a mark of only 139 carrying 10-05 

today he runs Astracad (French sire to big bucks) off a mark of 142 - previous winner CDG is wrth a mark of around 147 in my ratings is 5lbs well in today - will be Ok on this ground - that brings Conquisto into the picture as well - beating Astracad  fair and square at Aintree last time and a fast improving animal  both animals tick a majority of the trend boxes  

Both animals are out with the washing at the time of blogging and offer excellent each way value 
Champion Court is a box ticker and is 2lbs still well in carrying top weight on ground he likes well won at the festival and has come second on soft ground after a lay off  the price is about right for the win chances today

 good luck all

 Bob

Badger Ale chase Wincanton 09 Novemeber 2013

2012: (12 ran) The Package, Age 9, Wgt 11 - 1, SP 5/1 - T J Murphy / D Pipe
 was the biggest improver by 18 L  63% C -R +2 DVO 64%class (8 runs) 242 dar  80% success from 2 runs  5 top blue 

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2012	The Package	9	11-1	5/1	David Pipe	Timmy Murphy	148
2011	The Minack	7	11-7	11/4F	Paul Nicholls	Daryl Jacob	152
2010	Meanus Dandy	7	9-11	5/1	Paul Nicholls	Ian Popham	141
2009	Ellerslie George	9	10-2	14/1	Nick Mitchell	Mr R G Henderson	148
2008	Cornish Sett	9	11-2	12/1	Paul Nicholls	Nick Scholfield	150
2007	Abragante	6	10-4	15/8F	David Pipe	Timmy Murphy	143
2006	Parsons Legacy	8	10-5	16/1	Philip Hobbs	Richard Johnson	139
2005	Iris Bleu	9	11-2	10/1	M C Pipe	Timmy Murphy	150
2004	Royal Auclair	7	11-12	7/2J	Paul Nicholls	Christian Williams	158
2003	Swansea Bay	7	11-6	2/1F	Peter Bowen	Andrew Thornton	150

  Going described as G/soft today race off at 2.40

Only one horse in last 10 years has carried top weight to victory
4 favs have won the race (two trained by Nichols  who again puts up the favvy today)
No 6 yr old has won it (there were no 6 yr old's in last years race)

there is an increasing trend for the older horses who have a good track record  and have had their last run over hurdles lets see what is on offer today 

 only two today who went over hdles last time 

 Ballyallia man age 8 (10-09) Remote fourth in this last year, runner-up over C&D in the mud next time but kept to shorter since, including for career-best form here over 2m5f; weak in the betting and well below form on hurdling reappearance, but presumably needed that and very interesting that he´s having another crack at this. is pretty well in today and only the first crack this distance is a worry  though flemensfirth breeding says he will - was prepped for this race over hdles last year  and Tom George yard is swinging into action! has the top blues in the form book  top in class code races 

 Masters Hill (age 7 (11-05) Won maiden point; four runs under rules, winning novice chase at Chepstow last October and novice hurdle at Exeter year later; something looked amiss sole start in between (last November); impressed in both his wins and looks bright prospect, but race ofthis nature something very new to him. - last run at exter over hdles impressive as hell - Sure to come on for his first run in 339 days, especially as he was carrying plenty of condition, he ought to go well again if racing under a penalty. I make him so well in on his first chase from a yard going so well at least 2lbs better in than his win at Chepstow last year  Tizzard yard really firing at the moment. 

 will be backing both of these today - with a definite in running angle on both - good luck all

November Handicap 9th November 2013

The Betfred November Handicap takes place at Doncaster  today  Saturday, 9th November. at 3.35 on ground given as Good to Soft  It is a class 2 handicap open to 3yos and older, run over 1M 4F. 

Younger less exposed horses that have been running well lately have been favoured in past 10 years.

Horses drawn 9 to 16: 4-6-72

Horses drawn 17 or higher: 3-4-58  

All 3 winners drawn 17 or higher were on soft or heavy ground.

The 4 winners on ground with good in description were drawn between 8 and 14.

Racing Tactics

5 of 10 winners raced in touch or in midfield

4 of 10 winners were held up towards rear

1 of 10 winners made all

Price

No strong trends based on prices for this race.

This is a terrible race for favourites (0-1-11) with no winner in the last 17 years and only 1 of 11 making the frame since 2003. 

Summary:

- Aged 3 or 4 ✔

- Carrying 8-10 to 9-6 ✔

- Run 4 to 7 times in 2013 ✔

- Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 starts ✔

- Posted a career high RPR of 100+ in last 2 starts

- Had latest start at Doncaster or Newmarket

- Run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning 1 to 3)  ✔

- Previously won a class 2 or 3 handicap

- Won over 1M 3F+ ✔

- Has won at Doncaster (or having first run here) ✔

- Finished in first 5 in Gordon’s Stakes or 2012 November Handicap

- Hold-up horses preferred ✔

The one I like in a very tricky race is Nicholas Copernicus  ( 8 ✔) who holds very good each way chances - only 4th run of the season  attracts for this hold up specialist with a turn of foot on soft ground with a canny trainer and special jock in  Andrea Atzeni 

The Grade 2 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase today at wetherby at 3.35 021113

 Well - last weeks blog gave a very nice winner for mccoy and hopefully you dear reader - lets see if we can look for a similar run in the  The Grade 2 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase today at wetherby  at 3.35 

Run over 3M 1F, it generally attracts some of the best staying chasers around and winners since 2000 include Gold Cup hero See More Business, Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Our Vic and 2006 Hennessy Gold Cup winner State Of Play.

 Last year Silviniaco Conti won the race prior to winning the Betfair Chase on next start. so that was a guide to how good this race is - lets see what had done coming into the race - 3rd run of the season  and had won the Mildmay novice chase at Aintree and had never been outside of the frame in 5 runs over fences  and was a second season chaser having run in only class 1 2 3 races at that - we are looking for a goodun today!

Age

Horses aged 5 to 8: 7-6-33

Horses aged 9 or older: 3-7-36

2 of 3 winners aged 9+ had finished in first 4 in a previous renewal.

Weight There is a penalty structure for this race:

Horses carrying 11-10: 1-3-14

Horses carrying 11-3 to 11-6: 5-4-32

Horses carrying 11-0 or less: 4-6-23

 Only one horse carrying max weight of 11-10 has managed to win this in past 10 years.

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners had run 5 to 13 times over fences

10 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 156+ in last 3 runs

9 of 10 winners (last 9) were having first run of the season (exception run once that season)

10 of 10 winners were having their first start over fences in over 200 days

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a graded chase

9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ 

4 of 10 winners had won over CD (1 other was 2nd in this race on only previous run over CD and the other 5 had yet to run over this CD)

Racing Tactics

8 of 10 winners led or tracked leaders, though the field size for this race is usually quite small, so most runners are settled not too far from the leader.

Price

The last 9 winners were priced 7/1 or below

Besides one shock in 2003 (40/1 shot) all other winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and have been sent off no bigger than 7/1.

Favourites (3-6-10) have won 3 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.65.

Summary:

- Aged 6 to 8

- Carrying 11-6 or less

- Finished in first 3 last time ( ONLY LONG RUN TODAY)

- Posted an RPR of 156+ in last 3 chase starts

- Having first run of the season

- Won a graded chase worth 25K+  (only Harry Topper does not qualify)

- Won over 3M+ (ALL)

- Ran in a chase at Aintree in April CAPE TRIBULATION

- Course/distance winners do well  (CAPE TRIBULATION AND WAYWARD PRINCE)

- Tends to race prominently (NA TODAY)

- Priced 7/1 or shorter

Am I alone in thinking this is not the greatest renewal of this race? not one horse is a stand out and though I do not think much of Long Run can see why its favvy - but more by default than a horse that fits the trends and is way too short a price even though it has the class to beat these it has to overcome the jockey in my book.

Last years runner up Wayward Prince was soundly beaten into 2nd by 11 lengths has had a run over hdles  22 days and on that score alone is the fittest in the line up .

 Cape Tribulation  is a c/d winner seems to need soft ground to sparkle must be the most improving horse in the line up  and can go further  Jefferson yard is in great form  at the moment  its that nagging 11-10 getting to me though

both of these have run in the gold cup and well beaten by Long Run  but long Run has not run this track and wally Cohn has had only 1 ride here so on balance they have the beating of him today - 

Unionist  Benefficient  Harry Topper Master of the Hall  are all weighted to win this but they are such in and out characters you cannot have any confidence they will turn up cherry ripe for the day 

 Joker of the Pack - Master Of the Hall could be anything - last year he had a washout of a season - MIcky Hammond yard can rejuvenate animals  and his horses do seem to be coming back into some form( if the Master of the hall of 2010/11 turned up  could slay these off 11-00 ) he is priced on his 2012 performances and about right - could we be a very big priced winner 

 Its a small Stakes  race for me  - Cape Tribulation  and a very speculative 
 Master of the Hall

 Good Luck All

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