The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place today Saturday 16th November over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase I make this a pointer race for the season and make plenty of notes the ground is given as good to good/soft and clear weather forecast
First three home last year (soft ground) were all french bred (5 French runners in all) one finished 6th and the other pulled up - 18 ran and only 6 finished with one faller and the rest pulled up the first two werew 7 the third a 6yr old
last years write up - a contest with a long history and always very competitive. Subsequent Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander took this in 2008 and there were several in this year´s line-up with the potential to follow in his footsteps. Two of those were AL FEROF (11-08) and Walkon (10-06) and, once the pair joined issue turning for home, they came right away from the rest.
Al Ferof, finished third in the Victor Chandler, was a previous course winner over both hurdles and fences. He had won over 2m3 1/2f over hurdles but was unproven at this trip.
Walkon, a winner and runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle over hurdles on this track back in 2009 but well beaten in the RSA Chase in the spring, appreciated the softer ground and, after travelling well in the wake of the leaders, came out of the pack as the main challenger to the winner. Nadiya De La Vega,(10-08) runs today carrying 10-03 was 15l behind the winner had made a winning reappearance on this track previous month, was 8lb higher in a tougher race. She showed up just off the pace throughout but could not go with the first two from the home turn. She looks up to winning good races season. Any Money for this mare could be very significant she runs well fresh and is 2lbs well in on last years handicap
you dont want a 5yr old 9 yr old or 10 year old that's for sure they have performed horribly in this race
First three home last year (soft ground) were all french bred (5 French runners in all) one finished 6th and the other pulled up - 18 ran and only 6 finished with one faller and the rest pulled up the first two werew 7 the third a 6yr old
last years write up - a contest with a long history and always very competitive. Subsequent Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander took this in 2008 and there were several in this year´s line-up with the potential to follow in his footsteps. Two of those were AL FEROF (11-08) and Walkon (10-06) and, once the pair joined issue turning for home, they came right away from the rest.
Al Ferof, finished third in the Victor Chandler, was a previous course winner over both hurdles and fences. He had won over 2m3 1/2f over hurdles but was unproven at this trip.
Walkon, a winner and runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle over hurdles on this track back in 2009 but well beaten in the RSA Chase in the spring, appreciated the softer ground and, after travelling well in the wake of the leaders, came out of the pack as the main challenger to the winner. Nadiya De La Vega,(10-08) runs today carrying 10-03 was 15l behind the winner had made a winning reappearance on this track previous month, was 8lb higher in a tougher race. She showed up just off the pace throughout but could not go with the first two from the home turn. She looks up to winning good races season. Any Money for this mare could be very significant she runs well fresh and is 2lbs well in on last years handicap
you dont want a 5yr old 9 yr old or 10 year old that's for sure they have performed horribly in this race
Weight Higher weights have held a slight advantage with 6 of last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more. 7 of 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 39.4% of total runners.
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 of 4 exceptions placed in a grade 1 hurdle)
6 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season, 3 winning and 1 finished 2nd)
6 of 6 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an MR of 146+ on last completed start
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
Last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree
8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival
Price
The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000. (3-3-10) have gained 3 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2003 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 6.00.
- Aged 6 or 7- Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase(Tap Night -Mccoy)- Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
- Second or third season chaser
- Previously run less than 10 times over fences
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
- Ran in a chase at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival
- First 6 in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase
- Trained in Great Britain
- Trained by David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson
This is a hard nut to crack on trends - most will go for the higher rated horses and there is a clear picture of them in past winners - however am strongly attracted to Twiston buggers record with the animals rated below the 147 mark Imperial Commander won this easily off a mark of only 139 carrying 10-05
today he runs Astracad (French sire to big bucks) off a mark of 142 - previous winner CDG is wrth a mark of around 147 in my ratings is 5lbs well in today - will be Ok on this ground - that brings Conquisto into the picture as well - beating Astracad fair and square at Aintree last time and a fast improving animal both animals tick a majority of the trend boxes Both animals are out with the washing at the time of blogging and offer excellent each way value
Champion Court is a box ticker and is 2lbs still well in carrying top weight on ground he likes well won at the festival and has come second on soft ground after a lay off the price is about right for the win chances today
good luck all
Bob
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