Saturday, 2 November 2013

The Grade 2 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase today at wetherby at 3.35 021113

 Well - last weeks blog gave a very nice winner for mccoy and hopefully you dear reader - lets see if we can look for a similar run in the  The Grade 2 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase today at wetherby  at 3.35 
Run over 3M 1F, it generally attracts some of the best staying chasers around and winners since 2000 include Gold Cup hero See More Business, Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Our Vic and 2006 Hennessy Gold Cup winner State Of Play.

 Last year Silviniaco Conti won the race prior to winning the Betfair Chase on next start. so that was a guide to how good this race is - lets see what had done coming into the race - 3rd run of the season  and had won the Mildmay novice chase at Aintree and had never been outside of the frame in 5 runs over fences  and was a second season chaser having run in only class 1 2 3 races at that - we are looking for a goodun today!
Age
Horses aged 5 to 8: 7-6-33
Horses aged 9 or older: 3-7-36
2 of 3 winners aged 9+ had finished in first 4 in a previous renewal.

Weight There is a penalty structure for this race:
Horses carrying 11-10: 1-3-14
Horses carrying 11-3 to 11-6: 5-4-32
Horses carrying 11-0 or less: 4-6-23
 Only one horse carrying max weight of 11-10 has managed to win this in past 10 years.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners had run 5 to 13 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 156+ in last 3 runs
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were having first run of the season (exception run once that season)
10 of 10 winners were having their first start over fences in over 200 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a graded chase
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ 
4 of 10 winners had won over CD (1 other was 2nd in this race on only previous run over CD and the other 5 had yet to run over this CD)

Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners led or tracked leaders, though the field size for this race is usually quite small, so most runners are settled not too far from the leader.

Price
The last 9 winners were priced 7/1 or below
Besides one shock in 2003 (40/1 shot) all other winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and have been sent off no bigger than 7/1.
Favourites (3-6-10) have won 3 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.65.

Summary:
Aged 6 to 8
Carrying 11-6 or less
Finished in first 3 last time ( ONLY LONG RUN TODAY)
Posted an RPR of 156+ in last 3 chase starts
Having first run of the season
Won a graded chase worth 25K+  (only Harry Topper does not qualify)
Won over 3M+ (ALL)
Ran in a chase at Aintree in April CAPE TRIBULATION
Course/distance winners do well  (CAPE TRIBULATION AND WAYWARD PRINCE)
Tends to race prominently (NA TODAY)
Priced 7/1 or shorter

Am I alone in thinking this is not the greatest renewal of this race? not one horse is a stand out and though I do not think much of Long Run can see why its favvy - but more by default than a horse that fits the trends and is way too short a price even though it has the class to beat these it has to overcome the jockey in my book.

Last years runner up Wayward Prince was soundly beaten into 2nd by 11 lengths has had a run over hdles  22 days and on that score alone is the fittest in the line up .

 Cape Tribulation  is a c/d winner seems to need soft ground to sparkle must be the most improving horse in the line up  and can go further  Jefferson yard is in great form  at the moment  its that nagging 11-10 getting to me though

both of these have run in the gold cup and well beaten by Long Run  but long Run has not run this track and wally Cohn has had only 1 ride here so on balance they have the beating of him today - 

Unionist  Benefficient  Harry Topper Master of the Hall  are all weighted to win this but they are such in and out characters you cannot have any confidence they will turn up cherry ripe for the day 

 Joker of the Pack - Master Of the Hall could be anything - last year he had a washout of a season - MIcky Hammond yard can rejuvenate animals  and his horses do seem to be coming back into some form( if the Master of the hall of 2010/11 turned up  could slay these off 11-00 ) he is priced on his 2012 performances and about right - could we be a very big priced winner 

 Its a small Stakes  race for me  - Cape Tribulation  and a very speculative 
 Master of the Hall

 Good Luck All
-

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