The
Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow today 28th December A grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, It
is already considered to be heavy ground so fingers crossed for today. Its
gonna be a serious test of stamina
Last year - 2012: (17 ran) Monbeg
Dude, Age 8, Wgt 10 - 1, SP 10/1 - P
Carberry / M Scudamore
The pace was solid and not too many saw it
out in the conditions. MONBEG DUDE was
given an inimitable waiting ride by Paul Carberry and still had a lot of ground
to make up on the leading trio when moving into fourth place five from home.
His progress from there was relentless and he jumped ahead at the last - where
he made another mistake - before battling on. His jumping had been improved
when he won at Cheltenham last time, but he reverted to his old ways here with
a string of errors, which makes his victory all the more meritorious. This was
only his sixth run over fences and, while he´s a progressive young stayer, Had won its last race round Cheltenham 3m3f on soft ground – grade 3 (hes old enough
now and shown he can jump a fence and is a leading national fancy this
year. The well backed favourite Teaforthree (2nd) had been
targeted at this race for a long time, but just failed to reward his supporters
despite a fine run. In the first few throughout, jumping well, he went down
fighting to a horse to whom he was conceding 16lb; he´d been behind Monbeg Dude
on his seasonal return at Cheltenham too. A thorough stayer, he looks obvious
Grand National material.
So a bottom weight won it well last year and
yet the 10 year stats show it was out of the trends - this year the ground will
again help the lower weights for sure but there are a few outside the handicap
proper - Long Handicap: Amigo 9-12, Chartreux 9-11, Mountainous 9-9, Tour Des Champs 9-9, Ace High 9-9, Red Rocco 9-7, Harouet 9-7, One In A Milan 9-3
Age Horses
aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 7-10-60, which compares well to horses
aged 8+ of 3-19-118.
Horses aged 10+ have a very poor record having failed to win a single renewal in the past 10 years and
gaining just 4 places from 40 runners.
No strong trend on weights.
Top weight: PF3P2377F7 (0-3-10)
13 horses carrying a penalty (inside the
handicap 8 finished in the first 5) this brings in hey Big Spender 4lbsX and Knock a Hand 4lbs X
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished
in the first 4 last time (5
won)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55
days
9 of 10 winners had run
once or twice that season
10 of 10 winners had
won over 3M or further
7 of 10 winners had previously
won at Chepstow (3
exceptions were having their first course start)
8 of 10 winners had run
in 6 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2
handicap chases prior to this
8 of 10 winners were second or third
season chasers (2 exceptions were 4th season chasers)
9 of 10 winners had finished
in the first 3 in a listed/graded chase (exception had yet to run in a graded
chase but won Becher Chase on last run)
5 of last 7 winners ran in a 3M-3M1F
handicap hurdle on 1 of previous 2 runs
Other races
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 5
in Welsh/Scottish/Irish/Midlands Grand Nationals, the Hennessy or NH Chase at
Cheltenham (1 exception fell in the NH Chase when in with a big chance and
other won a 3M 4F grade 3 handicap on previous start) Clearly form in a prestigious chase
over 3M 2F or further is essential.
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners raced prominently or in
midfield
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or
shorter
Dream Alliance at
20/1 was the longest priced winner in the past 10 years.
The favourite (1-4-11) has won just 1 of last 10
and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.
Its a stayer race and you need fairly
fresh animals –
Highland Lodge fits that bill having its first
run since the hennessy – never been on this track before but gets in today off
a very good mark (has won in heavy ground to a mark of 151 and is 3lbs lower
than his achieved mark in the Hennessey
Vintage
Star has all the trend stats on its side loves the ground and is well in
on its last two runs
Knock a Hand has a touch of class this
ground helps it - it has run in big field hdles and ran in a hdle race 2 runs
back before recording a good win last time out
good luck all its a goodun!
Bob
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