The
Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup one of the best chases coming our way its
been called many names over the years at
Cheltenham, 14th December at 2.25 a 2m5f
grade 3 handicap the going has remained good
5 of
the last 8 winners of this had made the frame in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on
their previous start.
Age
we looking for :-6yo: (4-7-27) and 7yo: (4-6-34)
only 1 4yr old in last 10 cos there was only 1 entered in last 10 years and
that was Unionist (who just flowed into a 5l win at Aintree last week! Forget the older brigade they have won only
once from 78 runs
6 & 7 year olds have the best records. Between them they have won 8 of the last 10
renewals from approximately 41.8% of the total runners.
Horses
aged 9+ have gained no wins and just 2 places from 44 runners since 2002. You
have to go back to 1993 for the last 9yo winner and 1974 for the last winner
aged older than 9.
Breeding
French bred: 8-11-54 (were 7 or younger.)
Weight 10-08 highest lowest 9-09 (the 4yr old Unionist weight
allowance ) had run to my rating of 127 and won it off 119 that day.
Official Ratings - 145 Minimum (5-9-47)
10 of 10 winners had
run only 1 to 3 times that season - you certainly need fitness (not much more
than a month) and finished in
the first 3 last time out. You need a horse with experience with at least
six chases and yet not really more than
12 runs and having won at least 2 chases and a couple of them in
handicaps and at least placed in a grade 1 with big plus for a Cheltenham
winner and a plus for running in the chelt festival
Irish
trained winners were 8yo second season chasers that had run in a graded novice
chase at that year’s Punchestown Festival.
7 of
10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 8/1, however 3 of last 7 winners were
sent off 16/1 or bigger.
Favourites (1-3-10) don’t have a great
record in this race. In 2009 Poquelin became the first winning favourite since
1996.
So
where does the blog go for a bet?
Silver RoqueFR (t) was third in the Paddy Power last year and
in that he looked as if he needed this 2m5f as a minimum powering at the end of
the 2miles. Last run was a 16l winner in a low grade 3 at Sedgefield 2m4f. Held up, steady headway after 9th,
tracked leader going well 4 out, led 2 out, soon clear, easily 3/1 fav had
returned from a 201 day break
Has won
3 chases and is a really dark
horse – handicapped at 143 (2lb below
the minimum) but my rating it has run to
144 and it won it really easily at that
mark G/soft ground seems its best results Cana front run plus jumps quickly and
neatly Fergal O’Brian is 7 from 44 at
Cheltenham giving +£52 profit to a level stake
Brennan has won on the horse and though some
bounce with a layoff good run, this one acts well within 32 days so that’s ok
is currently 20/1 betfair
Note on comparative form for the paddy power -Johns
Spirit
and Colour Squadron really worthy animals
and fall in with all the stats and horse profile this race. Both have been
raised a lot in the weights for their paddy power first and second Johns Spirit 9lbs raise Colour Squadron 7lbs
–
Johns
Spirit ran to 2lbs lower than this new
mark is the biggest improver this year but I only make it 4star units better than Silver Roque who is in turn 10star points clear of the
rest – (the next being AttaGlance who is 10lbs below
Silver Roque star rating
AttaGlance GB is 3lbs in on its
last win and that makes it interesting – Jefferson does not bring a horse to
Cheltenham for fun went really well in the paddy power achieving at least 140
behind johns Spirit and colour Squadron that day – they have both been
penalised- He hasn’t he was 2lbs well in that day – Saturday he is 9lbs and
11Lbs well in for five and a1/2 L beating
Salut
Flo FR
should not be discarded at this stage cos its 8 yrs old – pipe can get one
ready and it’s not run for nearly a year won a grade 1 around here 2m5f just how delicate is this animal? It is def a
chance worth taking on as a BTL it likes
to bowl along in front .
Johns Spirit is a really worthy animal and falls
in with all the stats and horse profile this race raised a lot in the weights for its paddy
power win is in my ratings still only
2lbs higher than that win is the biggest
improver this year but I only make
it 4star units better than Silver
Roque who is in turn 10star points clear
of the rest
Easter Meteor – very dark horse who absolutely loves front
run tactics and has form around here – from the lavelle yard they like a punt –
the horse went well at Newbury last time has front run and is well worth
watching the betting tonight it trades at 20/1 betfair
MA FILLEULE (fr) its
Henderson horse but can a pure fencing novice win this ? The stats say no --- therefore lay to bet animal
good luck today guys
Rob
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