The Coral Welsh National 28 12 13

The Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow today 28^th December  A grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, It is already considered to be heavy ground so fingers crossed for today. Its gonna be a serious test of stamina

 Last year - 2012: (17 ran) Monbeg Dude, Age 8, Wgt 10 - 1, SP 10/1 - P Carberry / M Scudamore

The pace was solid and not too many saw it out in the conditions. MONBEG DUDE was given an inimitable waiting ride by Paul Carberry and still had a lot of ground to make up on the leading trio when moving into fourth place five from home. His progress from there was relentless and he jumped ahead at the last - where he made another mistake - before battling on. His jumping had been improved when he won at Cheltenham last time, but he reverted to his old ways here with a string of errors, which makes his victory all the more meritorious. This was only his sixth run over fences and, while he´s a progressive young stayer,  Had won its last race round Cheltenham  3m3f on soft ground – grade 3 (hes old enough now and shown he can jump a fence and is a leading national fancy this year.  The well backed favourite Teaforthree (2^nd) had been targeted at this race for a long time, but just failed to reward his supporters despite a fine run. In the first few throughout, jumping well, he went down fighting to a horse to whom he was conceding 16lb; he´d been behind Monbeg Dude on his seasonal return at Cheltenham too. A thorough stayer, he looks obvious Grand National material.

So a bottom weight won it well last year and yet the 10 year stats show it was out of the trends - this year the ground will again help the lower weights for sure but there are a few outside the handicap proper - Long Handicap: Amigo 9-12, Chartreux 9-11, Mountainous 9-9, Tour Des Champs 9-9, Ace High 9-9, Red Rocco 9-7, Harouet 9-7, One In A Milan 9-3

Age Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 7-10-60, which compares well to horses aged 8+ of 3-19-118.

Horses aged 10+ have a very poor record having failed to win a single renewal in the past 10 years and gaining just 4 places from 40 runners.

No strong trend on weights.

Top weight: PF3P2377F7 (0-3-10)

13 horses carrying a penalty (inside the handicap 8 finished in the first 5) this brings in hey Big Spender 4lbsX  and Knock a Hand 4lbs X

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time (5 won)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days

9 of 10 winners had run once or twice that season

10 of 10 winners had won over 3M or further

7 of 10 winners had previously won at Chepstow (3 exceptions were having their first course start)

8 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases prior to this

8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exceptions were 4th season chasers)

9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a listed/graded chase (exception had yet to run in a graded chase but won Becher Chase on last run)

5 of last 7 winners ran in a 3M-3M1F handicap hurdle on 1 of previous 2 runs

Other races

8 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in Welsh/Scottish/Irish/Midlands Grand Nationals, the Hennessy or NH Chase at Cheltenham (1 exception fell in the NH Chase when in with a big chance and other won a 3M 4F grade 3 handicap on previous start) Clearly form in a prestigious chase over 3M 2F or further is essential.

Racing Tactics

8 of 10 winners raced prominently or in midfield

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter

Dream Alliance at 20/1 was the longest priced winner in the past 10 years.

The favourite (1-4-11) has won just 1 of last 10 and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.

Its a stayer race and you need fairly fresh animals –

 Highland Lodge fits that bill having its first run since the hennessy – never been on this track before but gets in today off a very good mark (has won in heavy ground to a mark of 151 and is 3lbs lower than his achieved mark in the Hennessey

Vintage  Star has all the trend stats on its side loves the ground and is well in on its last two runs

Knock a Hand has a touch of class this ground helps it - it has run in big field hdles and ran in a hdle race 2 runs back before recording a good win last time out 

 good luck all its a goodun!

Bob

The Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup Cheltenham 2.25 141213

The Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup one of the best chases coming our way its been called many names over the years  at Cheltenham, 14th December at 2.25  a 2m5f grade 3 handicap the going has remained good

5 of the last 8 winners of this had made the frame in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on their previous start.

Age we looking for :-6yo: (4-7-27) and 7yo: (4-6-34) only 1 4yr old in last 10 cos there was only 1 entered in last 10 years and that was Unionist (who just flowed into a 5l win at Aintree last week!  Forget the older brigade they have won only once from 78 runs

6 & 7 year olds have the best records. Between them they have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 41.8% of the total runners.

Horses aged 9+ have gained no wins and just 2 places from 44 runners since 2002. You have to go back to 1993 for the last 9yo winner and 1974 for the last winner aged older than 9.

Breeding

French bred: 8-11-54 (were 7 or younger.) 

Weight 10-08 highest  lowest 9-09 (the 4yr old Unionist weight allowance ) had run to my rating of 127 and won it off 119 that day.

Official Ratings - 145 Minimum (5-9-47)

10 of 10 winners had run only 1 to 3 times that season - you certainly need fitness (not much more than a month) and finished in the first 3 last time out. You need a horse with experience  with at least  six chases and yet not really more than  12 runs and having won at least 2 chases and a couple of them in handicaps and at least placed in a grade 1 with big plus for a Cheltenham winner and a plus for running in the chelt festival

Irish trained winners were 8yo second season chasers that had run in a graded novice chase at that year’s Punchestown Festival.

7 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 8/1, however 3 of last 7 winners were sent off 16/1 or bigger.

Favourites (1-3-10) don’t have a great record in this race. In 2009 Poquelin became the first winning favourite since 1996.

 So where does the blog go for a bet?

Silver RoqueFR  (t) was third in the Paddy Power last year and in that he looked as if he needed this 2m5f as a minimum powering at the end of the 2miles. Last run was a 16l winner in a low grade 3 at Sedgefield 2m4f. Held up, steady headway after 9th, tracked leader going well 4 out, led 2 out, soon clear, easily 3/1 fav had returned from a 201 day break  

Has won  3 chases  and is a really dark horse – handicapped at 143  (2lb below the minimum)  but my rating it has run to 144  and it won it really easily at that mark G/soft ground seems its best results Cana front run plus jumps quickly and neatly  Fergal O’Brian is 7 from 44 at Cheltenham giving +£52 profit to a level stake 

Brennan has won on the horse and though some bounce with a layoff good run, this one acts well within 32 days so that’s ok is currently 20/1 betfair

 Note on comparative form for the paddy power -Johns Spirit  and Colour Squadron really worthy animals and fall in with all the stats and horse profile this race. Both have been raised a lot in the weights for their paddy power first and second  Johns Spirit 9lbs raise Colour Squadron 7lbs –

Johns Spirit  ran to 2lbs lower than this new mark  is the biggest improver this year but I only make it  4star units better than Silver Roque  who is in turn 10star points clear of the rest – (the next being AttaGlance who is  10lbs below  Silver Roque star rating

AttaGlance GB is 3lbs in on its last win and that makes it interesting – Jefferson does not bring a horse to Cheltenham for fun went really well in the paddy power achieving at least 140 behind johns Spirit and colour Squadron that day – they have both been penalised- He hasn’t he was 2lbs well in that day – Saturday he is 9lbs and 11Lbs well in for five and a1/2 L beating

Salut Flo FR should not be discarded at this stage cos its 8 yrs old – pipe can get one ready and it’s not run for nearly a year won a grade 1 around here 2m5f  just how delicate is this animal? It is def a chance worth taking on as a BTL  it likes to bowl along in front .

 Johns Spirit is a really worthy animal and falls in with all the stats and horse profile this race  raised a lot in the weights for its paddy power win  is in my ratings still only 2lbs higher than that win  is the biggest improver this year but I only make it  4star units better than Silver Roque  who is in turn 10star points clear of the rest

 Easter Meteor – very dark horse who absolutely loves front run tactics and has form around here – from the lavelle yard they like a punt – the horse went well at Newbury last time has front run and is well worth watching the betting tonight it trades at 20/1 betfair

MA FILLEULE  (fr) its Henderson horse but can a pure fencing novice win this ? The stats say no ---  therefore  lay to bet animal

 good luck today guys

 Rob

The Becher chase aintree 7th Dec 2013

The Becher chase has a lot going for it and its gonna be quite a race at 2.05 Aintree  with the ground  being given as good to soft with 24 runners  (usually big fields in this )

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2012	Hello Bud	14	10-0	14/1	Nigel Twiston-Davies	Sam Twiston-Davies	137
2011	West End Rocker	9	10-10	10/1	Alan King	Wayne Hutchinson	153
2010	Hello Bud	12	10-5	15/2F	Nigel Twiston-Davies	Sam Twiston-Davies	144
2009	Vic Venturi	9	11-12	7/1	D T Hughes	P W Flood	159
2008	Black Apalachi	9	10-5	15/2	D T Hughes	Denis O'Regan	158
2007	Mr Pointment	8	11-5	15/2	Paul Nicholls	Sam Thomas	163
2006	Eurotrek	10	11-7	25/1	Paul Nicholls	Liam Heard	167
2005	Garvivonnian	10	10-4	33/1	Edward P Mitchell	G Cotter	139
2004	Silver Birch	7	10-1	4/1F	Paul Nicholls	R Walsh	137
2003	Clan Royal	8	10-12	11/2	Jonjo O'Neill	L Cooper	147

And the trend to look for is that the youngsters don’t get a great look in only 1 seven year old in the last ten years off the minimum weight went off favourite for Nichols

Only three runners carried more that 11-00 to victory

 So first off you’re looking for 9 year olds in the mid 10 stone to top 10-00 though the 10 year olds give the biggest price winners and are well worth taking a peek at!

Rating – all 24 horses are within the winning handicap mark so there is little clue there

8 of the last 10 had won over 3miles plus but had only Won in 2 handicap chases but whilst saying that you want a horse that can run up with the pace

Nor does it go to horses with a long layoff – about 50 days seems to have the key and at that to have finished well in a big field and don’t discount the Irish horses  they seem to be getting their act together for this race

Any horse with good forms around here or has recent good form at Haydock in a national trial Normally there is quite a strong market as the race nears – if you fancy something outside of the winning price range – take the place price early on Belfair – watch for it running prominently for a bet in running works well this race

 Animals that foot the bill for front running this track are :

 Walk on is French bred and thats one big key to the race  having won 7 of 28 bred runs in 10 years  went off 7/4 fav here last run unseating after being bumped  and unsettled –that was pure bad luck  but in the Topham chase was beaten only half a length  the problem is the distance of this race is he a true stayer?  Today will tell – is a fine jumper of a fence

Across the bay is a forgotton horse he can stay and he can jump from the front will be very interested in any money coming late for this fella

Gullible Gordon another that attracts the blog eye won by a 28l margin over 3m1f in a minor race here can jump for fun and likes to run prominently. 

Good luck all

 Bob

The Paddy Power Gold Cup 16th November 2.30 Cheltenham

The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place today Saturday 16th November over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase  I make this a pointer race for the season and make plenty of notes the ground is given as good to good/soft and clear weather forecast 

 First three home last year (soft ground) were all french bred (5 French runners in all) one finished 6th and the other pulled up -  18 ran and only 6 finished with one faller and the rest pulled up the first two werew 7 the third a 6yr old 

 last years write up -  a contest with a long history and always very competitive. Subsequent Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander took this in 2008 and there were several in this year´s line-up with the potential to follow in his footsteps. Two of those were AL FEROF (11-08) and Walkon (10-06) and, once the pair joined issue turning for home, they came right away from the rest. 
Al Ferof,  finished third in the Victor Chandler, was a previous course winner over both hurdles and fences. He had won over 2m3 1/2f over hurdles but was unproven at this trip. 
Walkon, a winner and runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle over hurdles on this track back in 2009 but well beaten in the RSA Chase in the spring, appreciated the softer ground and, after travelling well in the wake of the leaders, came out of the pack as the main challenger to the winner. Nadiya De La Vega,(10-08)  runs today carrying 10-03 was 15l behind the winner had made a winning reappearance on this track previous month, was 8lb higher in a tougher race. She showed up just off the pace throughout but could not go with the first two from the home turn. She  looks up to winning good races season. Any Money for this mare could be very significant she runs well fresh and is 2lbs well in on last years handicap
  
 you dont want a 5yr old 9 yr old or  10 year old that's for sure they have performed horribly in this race 

Weight Higher weights have held a slight advantage with 6 of last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more. 7 of 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 39.4% of total runners. 

7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham

10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better

6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 of 4 exceptions placed in a grade 1 hurdle)

6 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season, 3 winning and 1 finished 2nd)

6 of 6 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an MR of 146+ on last completed start

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run less than 10 times over fences

10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers

Last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree

8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival

Price

The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000. (3-3-10) have gained 3 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2003 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 6.00.

- Aged 6 or 7-   Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase(Tap Night -Mccoy)- Previously won a chase at Cheltenham

- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F

- Second or third season chaser

- Previously run less than 10 times over fences

- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases

- Ran in a chase at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival

- First 6 in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase

- Trained in Great Britain

- Trained by David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson

This is a hard nut to crack on trends - most will go for the higher rated horses and there is a clear picture of them in past winners - however am strongly attracted to Twiston buggers record with the animals rated below the 147 mark Imperial Commander won this easily off a mark of only 139 carrying 10-05 

today he runs Astracad (French sire to big bucks) off a mark of 142 - previous winner CDG is wrth a mark of around 147 in my ratings is 5lbs well in today - will be Ok on this ground - that brings Conquisto into the picture as well - beating Astracad  fair and square at Aintree last time and a fast improving animal  both animals tick a majority of the trend boxes  

Both animals are out with the washing at the time of blogging and offer excellent each way value 
Champion Court is a box ticker and is 2lbs still well in carrying top weight on ground he likes well won at the festival and has come second on soft ground after a lay off  the price is about right for the win chances today

 good luck all

 Bob

Badger Ale chase Wincanton 09 Novemeber 2013

2012: (12 ran) The Package, Age 9, Wgt 11 - 1, SP 5/1 - T J Murphy / D Pipe
 was the biggest improver by 18 L  63% C -R +2 DVO 64%class (8 runs) 242 dar  80% success from 2 runs  5 top blue 

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2012	The Package	9	11-1	5/1	David Pipe	Timmy Murphy	148
2011	The Minack	7	11-7	11/4F	Paul Nicholls	Daryl Jacob	152
2010	Meanus Dandy	7	9-11	5/1	Paul Nicholls	Ian Popham	141
2009	Ellerslie George	9	10-2	14/1	Nick Mitchell	Mr R G Henderson	148
2008	Cornish Sett	9	11-2	12/1	Paul Nicholls	Nick Scholfield	150
2007	Abragante	6	10-4	15/8F	David Pipe	Timmy Murphy	143
2006	Parsons Legacy	8	10-5	16/1	Philip Hobbs	Richard Johnson	139
2005	Iris Bleu	9	11-2	10/1	M C Pipe	Timmy Murphy	150
2004	Royal Auclair	7	11-12	7/2J	Paul Nicholls	Christian Williams	158
2003	Swansea Bay	7	11-6	2/1F	Peter Bowen	Andrew Thornton	150

  Going described as G/soft today race off at 2.40

Only one horse in last 10 years has carried top weight to victory
4 favs have won the race (two trained by Nichols  who again puts up the favvy today)
No 6 yr old has won it (there were no 6 yr old's in last years race)

there is an increasing trend for the older horses who have a good track record  and have had their last run over hurdles lets see what is on offer today 

 only two today who went over hdles last time 

 Ballyallia man age 8 (10-09) Remote fourth in this last year, runner-up over C&D in the mud next time but kept to shorter since, including for career-best form here over 2m5f; weak in the betting and well below form on hurdling reappearance, but presumably needed that and very interesting that he´s having another crack at this. is pretty well in today and only the first crack this distance is a worry  though flemensfirth breeding says he will - was prepped for this race over hdles last year  and Tom George yard is swinging into action! has the top blues in the form book  top in class code races 

 Masters Hill (age 7 (11-05) Won maiden point; four runs under rules, winning novice chase at Chepstow last October and novice hurdle at Exeter year later; something looked amiss sole start in between (last November); impressed in both his wins and looks bright prospect, but race ofthis nature something very new to him. - last run at exter over hdles impressive as hell - Sure to come on for his first run in 339 days, especially as he was carrying plenty of condition, he ought to go well again if racing under a penalty. I make him so well in on his first chase from a yard going so well at least 2lbs better in than his win at Chepstow last year  Tizzard yard really firing at the moment. 

 will be backing both of these today - with a definite in running angle on both - good luck all