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The Bet365 Gold Cup Saturday 27th April 2013

The Bet365 Gold Cup (formerly the Whitbread Gold Cup), takes place today at Sandown Saturday 27th April, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles 5½ furlongs Signals the end of the British national hunt season. It is always a hugely competitive race and last year Tidal Bay managed a rare feat of winning this off top weight.

  

Going today is given as good ground and historically this has trends that seem to be thrown to the wind each year and this is no exception – the horses are either jaded from running in hock deep ground – have missed target races and or simply fed up – others have been held up and pastured to wait for this ground so trends are there to be shot at  

Age - Younger horses have a better record proportional to the number of runners, with those aged 6 to 8 winning half of the last 10 renewals from 40% of the total runners.

Of the 5 winners aged 9+, 4 had previously won a grade 1, 2 or 3 chase and the other had won the Grade B Troytown Chase and was runner-up in the Irish Grand National on previous start.

Breeding

Irish bred: 5-6-83

French Bred: 4-19-59

British bred: 1-3-23

Other: 0-0-5

French bred horses have filled 23 of 38 places since 2003 and they represented only 34.7% of the total runners.

Weight  7 of 10 winners carried 10-7 or more from approximately 51.8% of total runners.

Top Weight: 7PF030P4P1 (1-2-10)

The 2 top weights to be placed were ridden by 7lb claimers, while Tidal Bay, in 2012 has been the only horse to carry top weight to victory since 2003, he was a multiple grade 1 winner previously.

Official Ratings

6 of last 7 winners were officially rated 135 higher, they also filled 21 of 26 places since 2006.

Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-4-35

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in first 6 on last completed chase start

8 of 10 winners had last chase start in graded contest (2 exceptions ran in class 2 chase worth 30K+)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days.

10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

9 of 10 winners had run in 11+ chases

8 of 10 winners ran in 9 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions finished 4th the previous year)

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases

6 of 10 winners had run in a novice chase that season or previous season

9 of 10 winners won a race worth 20K+

7 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded race (2 of 3 exceptions had won a chase worth 40K+)

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced between 6/1 and 16/1

No strong trends on trends on the prices, though there have been a few upsets recently with winners at 20/1 and 25/1 in past 5 years.

Favourites (0-5-12) have failed to win this in past 10 years, level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         French bred

·         Aged 6 to 8 (or aged 9+ that won a grade 1, 2 or 3 chase)

·         Carrying 10-7 to 11-5

·         Officially rated 135 or higher

·         Ran in the past 50 days (Not a sure fire stat this year!

·         Finished in first 6 on last completed chase start

·         Had last run at Cheltenham Festival, in a grand national or over hurdles

·         Ran in a race at 2013 Cheltenham Festival

·         Previously run 11 or more times over fences

·         Run 9 or fewer handicap chases (or placed in this race last year)

·         Won no more than 2 handicap chases in their career

·         Run at least 3 times this season (winning no more than 1 chase)

·         Won over 3M+

·         Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 20K+

·           Avoid the favorite

On the above trends you have to take a long hard look at Twiston Buggers SAME DIFFERENCE – won on good/soft ground at Cheltenham Hit 4th, towards rear, headway 12th, ridden and stayed on from 2 out, strong challenge from bypassed final fence until led last strides - has the action of a good ground horse. Rated 137 that day he achieved 143 and runs off a mark of 144 today wears the visor.  He loved the hill finish and should be staying on when others cry enough.

Daly has a good contender in Quentin Collonges   though 9 years old this French bred has majority of the stats to put up a bold show watch his run at Doncaster - No hanging around in what was a good, competitive handicap, and the field were well strung out with a circuit to race. QUENTIN COLLONGES, 2lb wrong was responsible for stringing them out, he did unbelievably well to hold on after making a mistake at the last and looking certain to be claimed. not the biggest, he threw himself at most of the fences and truly relished the return to faster ground, with the addition of a first-time tongue-tie (again today) bypassed the Scottish national for this run -

Outsider On Trend has won round here and can seemingly go on any ground - made a bad mistake last run at chelt won by Same Difference  and put him out of it but is not forlorn off this mark and should be watched for an in running bet 

Update 28th April - hope you got on today for an exciting race - both mentioned horses fought out the finish which is very satisfying for a trends man 

The die-hard attitude QUENTIN COLLONGES showed when making all to beat Mr Moss in the Grimthorpe was evident again, the 9yo, having looked certain to be beaten coming to the last, really digging in under strong pressure and getting nicely on top close home. A horse whose previous chasing success had come left-handed (both Doncaster), he tended to jump that way on occasions, but didn´t lose much ground and this win also showed he doesn´t have to lead. Good ground is key and he appeals as an obvious type to be aimed towards the Grand National next season.

Kim Muir winner Same Difference, up 7lb, improved again in the second-time visor, always being up there in the chasing pack and moving like the winner in between the last two fences. However, having taken over, he found less than had seemed likely and outstayed by the determined winner. Still a novice, he still appears to have improvement in him and should remain competitive in big staying handicaps next season.

On Trend can do better again next season on softer ground and should go in the Notebook

In touch in midfield, closed on leaders 19th, ridden and no extra before 3 out,       weakened well before 2 out  Onward's and upwards   Bob

The Coral Scottish Grand National 2013

The Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr today at 3.50  It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 4M ½F. The Aintree Grand National winner, Auroras Encore, who was also runner-up in this last year, may try to do the Aintree-Scottish National double, a feat only ever accomplished by the legendary Red Rum in 1974.

 the ground is drying out and is given as g/soft good in places and could be good all round by race time.

trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-2-9

7yo: 0-8-37

8yo: 3-5-60

9yo: 2-5-49

10yo: 3-5-42

11yo+: 2-5-46

Last 10 renewals have gone to horses aged 8 to 11, though they represented over three quarters of the total runners.

In 2009 Hello Bud (aged 11) became the first horse aged over 10 to win the race since 1996. Merigo followed up that feat when winning the race for a second time last year, also at age 11. Both 11yo winners won their previous start, in a handicap chase over 3M+, posting an RPR of 140 in the process.

Breeding

Irish Bred: 5-18-131

French Bred: 3-7-62

British Bred: 2-4-41

American Bred: 0-1-6

Other: 0-0-3

No very strong trends on breeding, though French breds have won 3 of last 5.

8 of 10 winners carried 10-6 or less, though they represented 64.6% of total runners.

The only 2 winners to carry more than 10-6 to victory were both Irish bred chasers aged 10+ who had posted a career high RPR when winning their previous start.

Top Weight: 51P0P2PP6P (1-1-10)

Both top weights to make the frame had previously finished in first 5 in the race.

Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-12-101

Horses carrying a penalty have gained 2 wins & 1 place from 6 runners, the other 3 all fell or unseated.

8 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or lower

The 2 winners rated higher than 143 were Grey Abbey, who had won the Grimthorpe last time out, and Beshabar, who finished 2nd in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham on previous start

.n the last 10 years 22 horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National then ran in this race, finishing 5PP95P4PPP000PU695P00P (0-1-22)

Since 2000 2 winners ran in a handicap chase at Aintree Festival, finishing 51, on both those occasions there was a 2 week gap between the Aintree and Scottish Nationals, like this year.

In recent years those horses that have gone from the front have done best in this race and 4 of the last 6 winners led from before halfway.

Price

No strong trends on prices. 7 of 10 winners were priced between 15/2 and 18/1 though there have been a few big shocks with a 66/1 winner in 2008 and 33/1 in 2006.

Favourite (0-4-13) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 10.00 over the past 10 renewals.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 8 to 10 (or an 11yo that won last time, posting an RPR of 140+)
• Carrying 10-6 or less
• Officially rated 143 or lower
• Respect any horse carrying a penalty
• Run 3 to 6 times this season
• Finished in the first 6 last time & posted RPR of 140+
• Won over 3M+
• Posted career high RPR of 137+ in a chase over 3M 4F+
• Won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher (or won a graded chase at this meeting)
• Won a chase worth £15K+ (or placed in a chase worth 45K+)
• Run in at least 10 chases (or ran in novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)
• Course winner (or having first start at Ayr)
• Had first career start in a bumper or hurdles race
• Bypassed 2013 Aintree Grand National
• Finished in first 7 in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup

 There are a few to like in this that fit the profile - Rebecca's Choice  had the ground against him in the Midlands national and will go better on today's good ground is still 5lbs well in on my figures has the right weight staying capabilities and front runs. 

 The stats are against Auroras Encore  but is well in on last years second and has its ground  fits the profile well and as a front runner is a def back to lay in my book 

Problema Tic (fr) does love this track  and for a Fr horse likes the ground jumps well and at 7 will be ignored by many but if it goes off in the front few will be worthy of keeping your eye on 

Post update 13.29 
Monsieur Cadou  sired by the french bred sire of big Bucks has a couple of pounds to find on its last run but has the potential at 8 to make a big run today really has the profile to win today if the ground has a bit of juice in it  have just seen the racing post reporter saying there is more cut in the ground than thought this morning!

Bet 365 handicap Doncaster 3.30 130413

This is always a decent race even though the form of the runners has to be taken on trust.  Doncaster is a funny old sprint track with higher drawn animals seemingly having a tad of an advantage on ground no worse than g/soft - it pays to watch the 5flngs to see where the pace is and which side is favored but it really is no more than a confidence builder if your money is already on !
 Winners tend to come from either side 
 pays to look for the 4/5 year olds who have had a run in the last 60 days and animals who are fit from Meydan   for example the probable favourite jack Dexter beat home the ole boy Hitchens on thier last meeting - but that one has a real turn around in the weights of 5lbs  for a beating of  only 1.5 l  and the placings could easily be reversed.  Hitchens is now 8 yrs old and that was a return to his better form.

This has been won by 4 and 5 yr old's in the last ten years. 
YEAR    WINNER   AGE   WGT      SP       TRAINER         JOCKEY           RPR 
2012      Colonel Mak   5         9-0      33/1 David Barron       McNiff             107
2011       Horseradish    4         9-3        5/1F Michael Bell      Hayley Turner    105
2010       Kaldoun Kingdom5   9-3        6/1  Richard Fahey   Paul Hanagan      107
2009       Palace Moon  4         8-8     5/1F   Hughie Morrison  Steve Drowne  114
2008       Pusey Street Lady  4  8-5     40/1   John Gallagher     Joe Fanning        98
2005       Merlin's Dancer   5     8-11    16/1   David Nicholls     Adrian Nicholls  96
2004       Steel Blue     4           9-61       6/1    Richard Whitaker   Michael Hills  89
2003       Law Breaker    5        8-13     66/1   J A Gilbert             Brian Reilly     96 

you can see there have been shocks in the race at  33/1 40/1 and 66/1  the only thing that holds them together was they were fit from All weather campaign 

So 4 yr old 5 yr old with form at the distance ground and track -

 Spinatrix has the profile  and a RPR of 116 and 2lbs in hand for its last run - does not have any sort of draw advantage out of this box  the ground is the key and am praying no rain before the race. I expect a big run 
 Shropshire is very interesting out of the 17 box has its ground and distance   its win off this mark at ascot was scintillating playing catch me if you can  under this brill lil pilot Mathew Lawson wasn't beaten far in the Stewards cup carrying  a penalty

 Good luck All

 Bob 

Godsmejudge is the youngest Scottish Grand National winner since Gingembre triumphed in 2001. Anyone remember that victory?
  

Aintree other races 060413

Am going to go with Hollywell for my antree best bet today in the 2.50 Gelding by Gold Well my sire to follow has speed in the book am on

John Smith’s Grand National 060413 (4.15)

The John Smith’s Grand National takes place at Aintree on Saturday 6th April. There is a lot of hype - Channel four seem in constant orgasm , you need plenty of luck to win it but there are plenty of key trends that can help to narrow the field down. and plenty of fences poor jumpers and poor jocks to make the most amazing results - the Favs have a much better record than a game of chance so you have to take note of the market - its not a pin jobby

 The ground is key and given as good to soft good in places - have set my analyzer to good ground -- its gonna dry out more and more as the day goes on!

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below.

There have been 3 big shocks in the past 6 years, two 33/1 winners in 2007 & last year and a 100/1 winner in 2009.

Favourites (3-5-19) have gained 3 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 7.50.

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-4

7yo: 0-0-25

8yo: 0-6-61

9yo: 3-8-108

10yo: 5-7-94

11yo: 1-9-70

12yo: 1-0-28

13yo+: 0-0-9

Every winner since WWII (1946) has been aged 8 to 12

8 of 10 winners have been aged 9 or 10 (8-15-202)

In the past 8 years all 32 places were filled by horses aged 8 to 11

The only horse aged older than 11 to win this since 2003 was Amberleigh House who was placed in previous year’s race and had finished 1st or 2nd in previous 3 Becher Chases.

No horse aged below 8 or above 12 has made the frame in the past 10 years (0-0-38)

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-11 or more: 7-16-179

Horses carrying 10-10 or less: 3-14-220

In recent years, with weights being more closely bunched, higher weights have done better.

Past 5 years:

Horses carrying 10-11 or more: 4-11-106

Horses carrying 10-10 or less: 1-4-94

10 of 10 winners were initially allotted a weight of at least 10-5 on publication of National weights. Last 3 winners were allotted 11-5, 11-0, 11-6.

9 of 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight

Top Weight: 0FP290UF3F (0-2-10)

In recent years the trend has swung towards higher rated runners.In last 5 years

Horses rated 144 or higher: 4-12-117

Horses rated 143 or lower: 1-3-83

Breeding

Irish bred: 8-20-229

French bred: 2-4-98

British bred: 0-6-66

Other: 0-0-6

Mon Mome became the first French bred since 1909 to win the Grand National when landing the race in 2009 and Neptune Collonges followed up the feat.  

Irish bred horses have the best record having won 8 of the last 10 and filled in 28 of 40 places (70%) from approximately 57.4% of the runners.

Our Vic has sired 20 National runners in 5 runnings in past 10 years, with a record of 2-4-20. He has sired one of the first 3 home in last 5 renewals.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on last completed start

10 of 10 winners had their last run since National weights were announced

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season

8 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions won class 2 chase worth 30K+)

10 of 10 had won a chase worth 29K+

10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since Sept 1

10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+

10 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases

8 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases (exceptions had won 7 & 11)

7 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 12 handicap chases

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 1 to 3 handicap chases

7 of 10 winners were 3rd or 4th season chasers

The only second season chaser to have won this in past 10 years was Numbersixvalverde, who won the Thyestes and Irish Grand National as a novice.

10 of 10 winners posted career high RPR in a chase over 3M+

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR at a left-handed track

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 146+ in last 2 chase starts

5 of 10 winners (last 3) had posted an RPR of 148+ on each of last 2 chase starts

8 of 10 winners (all 4 Irish-trained winners) had a run over hurdles in January, February or March
they are - Sunny Hill Boy -- On His Own -- Forpaddydeplasterer-- Always Waining - Across the Bay 
Seabass  Chicago Grey -BecauseIcouldntsee - Quel Esprit - dont ignore this "new trends in the national (it applies across many nationals)

6 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Aintree National meeting (4 in GN, 2 in Topham & 1 in John Smith's H'cap Chase), 1 exception won previous season's Irish National, 1 won the Kim Muir and other exception did race the previous season

Other Races

Previous season's John Smith's H'cap Chase winner (Saint Are): 71 (1-0-2)

Previous season's Kim Muir winner (Sunnyhillboy): F671F (1-0-5)

Bobbyjo Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): U1PUU6 (1-0-6)

2 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup

2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 72

Racing Tactics Valuable for In Running Betfair 

5 of 10 winners raced prominently

2 of 10 winners raced in mid-division

3 of 10 winners were held up


Sunny Hill Boy -- Could be anything this horse  we know he stays  nearly  perfect run Grand national beaten by a nose up another 13lbs for that  run though you cant help but think Mccoy would be on this one 

On His Own -- winning his last race over hdles  off a mark of 146 he ran out a decisive winner. He was never far from the pace and although he didn´t really pick up when his rider first asked him to before the straight, he kept pulling out plenty and was very professional in his attitude.  and is off 148 today - the highest he has ever been needs a career best to win this - but that is not impossible has won on this ground and has top trainer jockey  15lbs more than his best jumps mark but that run over hdles for the 9yr old carrying 11-00 makes him a very creditable profile animal  was travelling well when fell at beechers last year going off at 14/1 

 Always Waining -  what a yummy old horse this one is top %this class and a true Aintree type  was simply given a 40/1 shot chance in its hdles run at Chepstow and if there is going to be a 12/1 winner on his favvy track favvy ground and Obrien in the saddle this is going to be the one 

Across the Bay -   ticks a lot of boxes 2nd season chaser with course form 3m3f has run to this mark. Made all last time in a hdle race worth 21grand and ran a good second to a mark of 134 over hdles around here on good ground is bred from Bobs Return had a wind operation before his last run made all and kept on 

Seabass  has  1lb in hand for its best win and a creditable run over hdles behind Rock Critic makes this one a strong contender and was keeping on so well under townsend last time - its not just sentiment that this is current favvy 

 Chicago Grey - was 20/1 shot for this last year and was going well when brought down has won on good ground in the cheltenham 4miler. is about 6lbs well in on its run at Navan

BecauseIcouldntsee - trainer is 50% for his two runs at Aintree thats about all I can say about it on the positive side 

 Quel Esprit is a very strong each way fancy for me has the complete profile for a national horse and is my main fancy for the irish - its price of 50/1 currently is way too big  - The one horse that had some scope to be a proper Grade 1 horse over fences  he jumps really well and able to produce a gear at the end of 3miles  he does tend to idle that's for sure and I believe this horse is a true Aintree type a good stayer and in the form of its life  

 so that's the profile horses - I must add that I will be also  taking a punt on a horse that has conditions all in its favour today but is maybe too young and inexperienced and thats the 7yr old Saint Ar (Fr) who simply trounced a field round here and  is best effort over fences also came at this track when splitting Champion Court and Astracad its an 80/1 chance but horses for courses says this will be no forlorn bet today 

Good luck in your choice may they run well - hope you enjoy  the race 

 Bob 

Irish Grand National 1st April 2013

The Ladbrokes Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse always takes place on Easter Monday, which falls on the 1st April. Like last year, this year’s renewal takes place 5 days before its Aintree equivalent, which means there will be fewer raiders travelling over from Great Britain. Lesser exposed chasers have dominated the race in recent years.

Prize is £114,634.00  

Going - Given as Yielding to soft but check that out its the English equivalent of soft ground but yesterday it ended up soft with heavy in places and cannot see that can be ignored so heavy ground stayers must be a consideration. 

Previous winners 

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2012	Lion Na Bearnai	10	10-5	33/1	Thomas Gibney	Andrew P Thornton	153
2011	Organisedconfusion	6	9-13	12/1	A L T Moore	Ms N Carberry	150
2010	Bluesea Cracker	8	10-4	25/1	J Motherway	Andrew J McNamara	147
2009	Niche Market	8	10-5	33/1	Bob Buckler	Harry Skelton	154
2008	Hear The Echo	7	10-0	33/1	M F Morris	P W Flood	158
2007	Butler's Cabin	7	10-4	14/1	Jonjo O'Neill	A P McCoy	147
2006	Point Barrow	8	10-8	20/1	P Hughes	P A Carberry	148
2005	Numbersixvalverde	9	10-1	9/1	Martin Brassil	R Walsh	139
2004	Granit D'Estruval	10	10-0	33/1	Ferdy Murphy	Brian Harding	137
2003	Timbera	9	10-12	11/1	D T Hughes	J Culloty	141
2002	The Bunny Boiler	8	9-9	12/1	Noel Meade	R Geraghty	145

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 1-2-12 -7yo: 2-6-51 -8yo: 3-7-71 -9yo: 2-9-64 -10yo: 2-4-46 -11yo: 0-1-13 -12yo+: 0-1-4

Horses aged 6 to 8: 6-15-134

Horses aged 9 or older: 4-15-127

6 of last 7 winners have been aged 6 to 8

There has been no winners aged over 10 in past 10 years. There have been 3 winners aged 11+ in past 30 years, all 3 were trained in Great Britain.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 2-12-111

Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 8-18-150

The last 9 winners have all carried 10-8 or less.

Of 38 horses to carry 11-0+ in last 10 years (0-3-38), none have won and only 3 made the places.

Record of top weight: 4PPPPPFFP8 (0-1-10), only 2 of the 10 horses to be allotted top weight have completed the course.

3 of 10 winners were racing from out of the handicap, none by more than 7lbs.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 137 or higher: 0-8-70

Horses rated 125 to 136: 9-13-158

Horses rated 124 or lower: 1-9-33

9 of 10 winners were officially rated 125 to 136.

Since 2007 all 6 winners and 22 of 24 places were filled by horses rated 130 to 140.

Breeding

Irish bred: 8-23-200

French bred: 2-5-34

British bred: 0-2-20

German bred: 0-0-1

USA bred: 0-0-6

8 of 10 winners have been Irish bred though they have represented 76.6% of the total runners. Proportionally French bred horses have superior record, having gained 2 wins and 5 places from approximately 13% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last chase start (2 exceptions were unplaced in a grade A h’cap chase & other was 8th in 4M Novice Chase at Cheltenham)

7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 131+ on last chase start

8 of 10 winners posted a chase RPR of 133+ earlier that season

9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

10 of 10 winners had won at a right-handed track

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season

8 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in 3M point to point)

10 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 13 chases

10 of 10 winners had finished first past post in 2 to 4 chases

10 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 4)

7 of 7 Irish-trained winners had won a chase at Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel

5 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in a Grade A or B Leopardstown H'cap Chase since Christmas (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in Ten Up Novice Chase)

8 of 10 winners had won 2 or less handicap chases

8 of 10 winners (last 8) were 1st or 2nd season chasers

7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (3 exceptions were placed in a class 2 or higher chase)

7 of 10 winners won a chase worth 19K+ (3 exceptions placed in a race worth 19K+)

10 of 10 winners had first start in a hurdle, bumper or point to point

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Lion Na Bearnai): 5 (0-0-1)

Conyngham Cup (Q.R.) Handicap Chase winner (Panther Claw): 1 (1-0-1)

4M NH Novice Chase winner (Back In Focus): 1 (1-0-1)

Thyestes Chase winner (Jadanli): 177 (1-0-3)

Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Terminal): U0F1 (1-0-4)

Troytown winner (Tofino Bay): 02P2P (0-2-5)

Topaz Novice Chase winner (Back In Focus): 3 (0-1-1)

Leinster National winner (Rich Revival): U04 (0-1-3)

Batterstown H'cap Chase winner (Murchu): 94P0 (0-1-4)

Holden Plant Rentals Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): PR (0-0-2)

Carrickmines Handicap Chase winner (He'llberemembered): P5 (0-0-2)

Previous season's Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Raithlin): 88 (0-0-2)

Daily Mirror Chase winner (Treacle): RP (0-0-2)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final winner (Panther Claw): FU (0-0-2)

Woodlands Park Novice Chase winner (Tofino Bay): 000 (0-0-3)

4 of 10 winners had finished in the first 5 in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham that season or the previous season (last 2 British-trained winners ran in the 4M race on previous start)

2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year’s renewal, finishing F0

2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Handicap Chase, finishing 07

2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Thyestes Chase, finishing 10

2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Carrickmines H'cap Chase, finishing 2P

2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Cork National, finishing P8

2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 31

2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 1F

2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 41

Trainers

British trained runners (3-3-21) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years.

Price

It has been a race for outsiders, with 6 of last 10 winners priced between 20/1 & 33/1.

Favourites (0-2-12) have gained no wins and just 2 places in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Irish or French bred

·         Aged 6 to 10

·         Carrying 10-8 or less (no more than 10-13)

·         Officially rated 130 to 140

·         Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point

·         Posted an RPR of 133+ over fences this season

·         Won over 3M+

·         Run at least twice this season & run in the past 50 days

·         Won a chase at right-handed track

·         Previously won a chase Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel

·         Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)

·         Contested no more than 9 handicap chases

·         Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+

·         Ran in this season’s Cork National, Paddy Power and/or Thyestes Chase

·         Ran in a Grade A or B h’cap chase at Leopardstown since Christmas Day

·         Finished in first 4 in 2012 or 2013 Ten Up Novice Chase

·         Finished in first 5 in 2012 or 2013 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham

·         Trained in Great Britain (especially by Jonjo O’Neill) or

·         Trained by Dessie Hughes, Arthur Moore or a smaller Irish yard

its gonna be a thriller and I like a few for this will be keeping my powder dry till the market squares a bit  I like the chances of elliot horse Romanesco for the win was going like a train at Cheltenham in a class 3 g/soft under an armature and is my main fancy after its run there last time staying on and top of its form  

and am keeping my eye open for the very dark Rapidolyte De Ladalka who is completely unexposed  Lightly raced, he remains capable of better and is probably going to be suited by marathon test.

 good luck all

 bob