The Bet365 Gold Cup Saturday 27th April 2013

The Bet365 Gold Cup (formerly the Whitbread Gold Cup), takes place today at Sandown Saturday 27th April, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles 5½ furlongs Signals the end of the British national hunt season. It is always a hugely competitive race and last year Tidal Bay managed a rare feat of winning this off top weight.

  

Going today is given as good ground and historically this has trends that seem to be thrown to the wind each year and this is no exception – the horses are either jaded from running in hock deep ground – have missed target races and or simply fed up – others have been held up and pastured to wait for this ground so trends are there to be shot at  

Age - Younger horses have a better record proportional to the number of runners, with those aged 6 to 8 winning half of the last 10 renewals from 40% of the total runners.

Of the 5 winners aged 9+, 4 had previously won a grade 1, 2 or 3 chase and the other had won the Grade B Troytown Chase and was runner-up in the Irish Grand National on previous start.

Breeding

Irish bred: 5-6-83

French Bred: 4-19-59

British bred: 1-3-23

Other: 0-0-5

French bred horses have filled 23 of 38 places since 2003 and they represented only 34.7% of the total runners.

Weight  7 of 10 winners carried 10-7 or more from approximately 51.8% of total runners.

Top Weight: 7PF030P4P1 (1-2-10)

The 2 top weights to be placed were ridden by 7lb claimers, while Tidal Bay, in 2012 has been the only horse to carry top weight to victory since 2003, he was a multiple grade 1 winner previously.

Official Ratings

6 of last 7 winners were officially rated 135 higher, they also filled 21 of 26 places since 2006.

Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-4-35

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in first 6 on last completed chase start

8 of 10 winners had last chase start in graded contest (2 exceptions ran in class 2 chase worth 30K+)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days.

10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

9 of 10 winners had run in 11+ chases

8 of 10 winners ran in 9 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions finished 4th the previous year)

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases

6 of 10 winners had run in a novice chase that season or previous season

9 of 10 winners won a race worth 20K+

7 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded race (2 of 3 exceptions had won a chase worth 40K+)

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced between 6/1 and 16/1

No strong trends on trends on the prices, though there have been a few upsets recently with winners at 20/1 and 25/1 in past 5 years.

Favourites (0-5-12) have failed to win this in past 10 years, level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         French bred

·         Aged 6 to 8 (or aged 9+ that won a grade 1, 2 or 3 chase)

·         Carrying 10-7 to 11-5

·         Officially rated 135 or higher

·         Ran in the past 50 days (Not a sure fire stat this year!

·         Finished in first 6 on last completed chase start

·         Had last run at Cheltenham Festival, in a grand national or over hurdles

·         Ran in a race at 2013 Cheltenham Festival

·         Previously run 11 or more times over fences

·         Run 9 or fewer handicap chases (or placed in this race last year)

·         Won no more than 2 handicap chases in their career

·         Run at least 3 times this season (winning no more than 1 chase)

·         Won over 3M+

·         Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 20K+

·           Avoid the favorite

On the above trends you have to take a long hard look at Twiston Buggers SAME DIFFERENCE – won on good/soft ground at Cheltenham Hit 4th, towards rear, headway 12th, ridden and stayed on from 2 out, strong challenge from bypassed final fence until led last strides - has the action of a good ground horse. Rated 137 that day he achieved 143 and runs off a mark of 144 today wears the visor.  He loved the hill finish and should be staying on when others cry enough.

Daly has a good contender in Quentin Collonges   though 9 years old this French bred has majority of the stats to put up a bold show watch his run at Doncaster - No hanging around in what was a good, competitive handicap, and the field were well strung out with a circuit to race. QUENTIN COLLONGES, 2lb wrong was responsible for stringing them out, he did unbelievably well to hold on after making a mistake at the last and looking certain to be claimed. not the biggest, he threw himself at most of the fences and truly relished the return to faster ground, with the addition of a first-time tongue-tie (again today) bypassed the Scottish national for this run -

Outsider On Trend has won round here and can seemingly go on any ground - made a bad mistake last run at chelt won by Same Difference  and put him out of it but is not forlorn off this mark and should be watched for an in running bet 

Update 28th April - hope you got on today for an exciting race - both mentioned horses fought out the finish which is very satisfying for a trends man 

The die-hard attitude QUENTIN COLLONGES showed when making all to beat Mr Moss in the Grimthorpe was evident again, the 9yo, having looked certain to be beaten coming to the last, really digging in under strong pressure and getting nicely on top close home. A horse whose previous chasing success had come left-handed (both Doncaster), he tended to jump that way on occasions, but didn´t lose much ground and this win also showed he doesn´t have to lead. Good ground is key and he appeals as an obvious type to be aimed towards the Grand National next season.

Kim Muir winner Same Difference, up 7lb, improved again in the second-time visor, always being up there in the chasing pack and moving like the winner in between the last two fences. However, having taken over, he found less than had seemed likely and outstayed by the determined winner. Still a novice, he still appears to have improvement in him and should remain competitive in big staying handicaps next season.

On Trend can do better again next season on softer ground and should go in the Notebook

In touch in midfield, closed on leaders 19th, ridden and no extra before 3 out,       weakened well before 2 out  Onward's and upwards   Bob